Baseball is a wacky game. Yesterday’s Astros first 5 inning over 2.5 runs play went from dead on the vine to live in the 4th inning, as Houston plated two and had a man on second base with zero outs. Somehow they were unable to push him across for the win. Then – down to their final out in the fifth – the ‘Stros plate the third run right before the final out of the inning was made. It wasn’t pretty, but I’ll take it. That’s the breaks, and it’s time to move on with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-9-2021…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins (-140)
Not only is today’s Brewers/Marlins competition the series rubber match, it has the potential to either tie their season head-to-head record at 3-3 or give Miami the 4-2 advantage. However, that has little consequence on how these teams approach the game. Miami enters the contest as the only team in the NL East to have a positive run differential, even after last night’s 6-2 loss. Milwaukee’s recent skid has dropped them to 2 games below NL Central leader St. Louis, who is rolling with an 8-2 mark in their last 10 games.
B. Anderson (L) vs. S. Alcantara (R)
Sandy Alcantara makes his eighth start of the season as a fairly steady force for Miami. He regularly gives his club 6 solid innings but has given up a home run in each of his last four outings. Yet he has managed to stay out of trouble for the most part, yielding just 2 runs in his last three starts. Aside from the trip to San Francisco, Alcantara has avoided issuing multiple walks per game in recent weeks. His propensity to find the strike zone and pitch to ground ball contact has earned him a solid 3.41 FIP/3.68 xFIP on the season. I still peg him as a a guy who should be right around that 4.00 FIP mark though.
The Miami righty is predominantly a fastball pitcher, though he leans on an effective slider and an improved changeup to mix things up. Effective secondary pitches are crucial against Milwaukee – a team that absolutely crushes fastballs, especially by a red-hot Avisail Garcia. Garcia has been bumped up to the cleanup spot due to injuries and the fact that he is raking right now. He has an RBI in five of his last eight games and has hit safely in eight of the last nine. Otherwise, only Kolten Wong and Christian Yelich have been effective against sliders and changeups – and Yeli is currently on the IL. As much as Sandy loves to go to old #1, he must be on point with his secondary pitches today.
A Late Swap
Yesterday evening, Milwaukee swapped out listed starting pitcher Eric Lauer for Brett Anderson. Anderson returns from the IL after tweaking his hamstring in Chicago in the midst of a disastrous first inning. He finds the strike zone regularly and lives by the ground ball (55.9% in 2021; 56.8% career) while typically avoiding the long ball. Aside from a 3-homer blowout in his season debut in Chicago, the 33-year-old veteran has not given up any more long balls. We’ve seen him shut down Pittsburgh and St. Louis this season while struggling mightily twice at Wrigley. I suppose you could make the argument that the Cubs are about 20% better against left-handed pitchers and the Cardinals were slumping at the plate early in the season, while the Pirates’ 77 wRC+ says enough about that.
When it comes to this Miami offense against lefties, many signs point positively. This club continues to produce at the plate despite having phenom Jazz Chisholm and veteran Starling Marte on the IL. While they aren’t phenomenal per se, the Marlins have produced a 99 wRC+ in the last week behind a decent .253/.289/.426 slash line. Their high strikeout rate and low walk rate may be marginalized against a pitcher like Brett Anderson. And, to boot, Miami boasts a healthy .251/.319/.434 and 106 wRC+ against southpaws this season. That stacks up nicely against Milwaukee’s struggles against righties (.208/.286/.349; 77 wRC+).
Injuries and Bullpens
Both clubs have key cogs on the IL right now, but the Brewers are seriously hampered by their lengthy list of position players. Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez, Jace Peterson, and David Robertson are joined by several role players as absentees in recent weeks. In their absence, Lorenzo Cain and Avisail Garcia have picked up a good portion of the slack – especially the latter. Last night’s hit parade against Daniel Castano produced an early lead that the Brewers never surrendered. Milwaukee’s late-inning trio of JP Feyereisen, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader pitched a near-perfect final three innings last night, striking out eight. If push comes to shove, those lockdown relievers should be available this afternoon.
On the other hand, Miami’s relievers have been just as effective – or better – this season. Their 3.74 FIP/4.10 xFIP stacks up well against Milwaukee’s 4.41 FIP/4.21 xFIP, but there is no denying that the Brewers’ back end is much more dominant. The Marlins’ end-game arms of Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, and Yimi Garcia are ready to take the reins if Sandy can deliver his usual 6 innings of work. A replication of his 7 innings of 2-run ball at Milwaukee on April 28th is exactly what manager Don Mattingly is looking for today. I’d gladly take that effort coupled with their scrappy lineup putting in work against Anderson. They’ll need to sneak some balls into the outfield to chain together enough hits though. But the recent success of Miguel Rojas, Adam Duvall, and Brian Anderson – fresh off of his return from AAA – should prove to be the difference this afternoon.
WAGER: Marlins -140 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Marlins Run Line +160 (1/2 unit)
ALTERNATIVE: Marlins -1 +115
Not only am I resistant to laying too much juice on baseball games, occasionally I reach for plus-money payoffs. -140 odds is not terrible, but this Marlins team has been very effective in winning by significant margins. Miami’s last eight wins have been by 2 or more runs and their three wins against Milwaukee this season were decided by at least 4 runs. If I push on a 1-run victory this afternoon, so be it – otherwise, I’m going for the gusto despite having just eight innings of offense if the Marlins have the lead late.
Around the Horn
Visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for free handicapping articles containing insights into our daily plays. It’s also home to our season previews and futures portfolio. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL!
