The MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-7-2021 is back after a one-day hiatus to accommodate my work schedule. We left off with a failed attempt at a game total in Washington – further reinforcing my disdain for MLB totals – and a perfect-ish gem from John Means. Ironically, I nearly missed capitalizing on Means’ no-hitter but an early pair of runs brought home the O’s first 5 inning bet. So I say goodbye (again) to totals and dive right into the Friday slate…
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants (+125)
Tonight’s NL West showdown features division leaders sitting just one half-game apart – as the Dodgers surprisingly sit just on the outside looking in. San Francisco puts their slightest of leads to the test against the potent San Diego Padres as the Giants return home after dropping two of three to Colorado. The door is wide open for the Pads to do damage this weekend and take control of the West. In fact, they look to follow the formula of last weekend’s series win against this same club.
B. Snell (L) vs. A. DeSclafani (R)
Prized offseason acquisition Blake Snell takes the mound for his third start against San Francisco this season. Despite giving up only 7 hits in 10 innings, Snell yielded a pair of runs in each outing and struck out 14. The former Ray has posted career-best 12.97 K/9 and 54.7% ground ball rates, although his 5.26 BB/9 rate is a career low. Those free passes haven’t hurt him too badly as Blake has kept hard contact to a reasonable 37.5% rate. The four-pitch lefty’s secondary pitches haven’t rounded into the form that earned him the 2018 Cy Young award, but Snell almost always puts his club in a position to get the W.
Anthony DeSclafani is nowhere near the caliber of pitcher that Blake Snell is, yet the former Red has acclimated very well in San Francisco. He revived his career after a bumpy 2020 in Cincinnati by generating a lot of ground ball contact (54.7%) and letting the solid defense behind him go to work. DeSclafani also has a four-pitch arsenal featuring a strong fastball/slider combo that has contributed to four strong starts of 1 run or less this season. Outside of the 17 strikeouts in two games against Colorado, Disco is more known for finding the strike zone to generate contact. But he finds himself walking the fine line of too much hard contact (44.7%) and being somewhat fortunate – at least that’s what his .229 BABIP says to me.
Both starters have been very sharp so far this season, putting up low-to-mid 3.00s FIPs that are supported by comparable xFIPs. Snell’s 3.61 FIP/3.19 xFIP is most likely sustainable over the 2021 campaign, especially if manager Jayce Tingler continues to avoid that dreaded third time through the order with him. On the other hand, DeSclafani’s 3.10 FIP/3.50 xFIP arguably outpaces where he should end this season – somewhere in the low 4.00s.
Playing the Percentages
This isn’t the first time that I’ve tended towards San Francisco against a lefty starter. But they aren’t facing any ordinary left-hander – this is Blake Snell we’re talking about. While the Giants’ production with these splits continues to be positive against southpaws, they have not been quite as effective as last season. Platoon men Mauricio Dubon and Austin Slater have not been quite as potent, though Dubon rode a six-game hit streak into the Colorado series. Slater finds himself in a six-game hitless streak yet boasts good production vs. lefties (.233/.378/.467; 138 wRC+) that is on par with Darin Ruf (.250/.367/.542; 138 wRC+).
But the key to the Giants hanging in there against Snell is being disciplined at the plate. They coaxed 7 walks out of him in their first two meetings this season and have a 14.2% walk rate this past week. The downside is that San Francisco is in the bottom third of the league in terms of striking out (25.5%). Whiffs will crush them tonight in the absence of earning walks and timely hitting.
Strangely enough, the Padres find themselves in a rare offensive skid. And that means one thing to me – the snapback is going to be dramatic. Both Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Manny Machado are in 2-for-21 slumps including 1-12 marks in their recent series against San Francisco. San Diego’s downward trend over the last two weeks (.227/.300/.356; 84 wRC+) even accelerated last week (.201/.278/.293; 64 wRC+). But both teams had Thursday off and will be well rested for this weekend’s crucial divisional series.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire
As a Giants backer tonight, I want nothing to do with the stout Padres bullpen. Their mid-3.00s FIP has stymied opponents all season and is about 2 runs better than San Francisco’s pen in recent weeks. This poses a terrible mismatch that makes going against Snell almost look like a good matchup for the Giants! From middle relievers Craig Stammen and Tim Hill all the way to their back end murderer’s row of Emilio Pagan, Drew Pomeranz, and Mark Melancon – you don’t want to mess with the Padres’ relievers.
WAGER: Giants First 5 +120 (Good to +115)
This is a scenario that really had me second- and third-guessing myself. When do the Padres bounce back into form on offense? Better yet, when will DeSclafani’s dance around hard contact come back to bite him? It could all come to a head tonight, but the tendencies still point to the Giants being a live dog. Well, at least until the bullpens enter the game. This one feels so wrong in terms of the eye test, but the numbers tell me that San Francisco has close to a coin-flip chance to lead after five innings. Give me the plus-money return with push protection as I ask for one more strong start from Disco.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers (+130)
I’ll avoid representing a lazy handicap on this game like “the Twins won’t lose to the Tigers”. After all, the Twins have only won two more games than Detroit. Even with a shaky starter like Matt Shoemaker on the bump, Minnesota offers more game-changing power despite recently losing top prospect Alex Kiriloff to the IL. They did get Miguel Sano back from the injured list on Wednesday, although his 1-for-9 performance in the two games since isn’t close to making up for losing Kiriloff.
Detroit’s offensive production is close to my season expectations, although their woes against lefties has swung dramatically from being a strength last season. But they face a righty tonight and have the top of their lineup moving in the right direction. Robbie Grossman and Jemier Candelario have led the way for the Tigers despite the entirety of their offense slumping lately (last week: .226/.293/.307; 73 wRC+). The Twins’ recent production (last week: .229/.311/.441; 111 wRC+) mimics their low batting average, though their power is a significant differentiator.
M. Shoemaker (R) vs. T. Skubal (L)
Matt Shoemaker does not inspire a ton of confidence for a play on the Twins. He’s been pounded by Seattle, Oakland, and Kansas City this season already. However, Shoemaker was respectable against Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago and allowed just 1 run against the Tigers in his 6-inning season debut. The 5 strikeouts in that game were an outlier considering his career-low 5.48 K/9 ratio in 2021. Then again, that successful start was likely a product of facing Detroit’s league-high 30.3% strikeout rate.
His counterpart, 24-year-old Tarik Skubal has had his highs and lows this season. His debut against Cleveland was backed up by a beating at the hands of that same team. While Skubal has kept a modest 36.6% hard hit rate, he’s been barreled up 14 times (19.4%). That could be trouble against a tough trio of Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, and Nelson Cruz that has done a nice job of propping up this lineup. Tarik’s propensity to issue walks at a rate nearing that of his strikeouts (1.29 K/BB ratio), does not couple well with a low-batting average/high ISO team like Minnesota.
Where Shoemaker holds a distinct advantage over Skubal is the anticipated length of their starts this evening. Barring disaster, Matt should get through the 5th inning before turning the game over to the Twins’ sketchy bullpen. Tarik, on the other hand, has been capped at 3 innings in his last three starts. And the Detroit relief unit has been nothing short of disastrous this season. It has been worked heavily the past few days, though manager AJ Hinch leaned on the depths of his bullpen to get through 6 innings in Boston yesterday. Minnesota should have middle relief stalwarts Caleb Thielbar and Jorge Alcala ready to bridge the gap to their back end. Unfortunately, Duffey, Robles, and Rogers have been less than spectacular lately. This is a hold on for your life type of game in innings five through nine for sure!
WAGER: Twins -140 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Twins Run Line +110 (1/2 unit)
This matchup is anything but pretty. Minnesota has been a major disappointment this season in most aspects, but will meet their match tonight in rainy Detroit. Although I project the Twins as a 63% winner in this contest, laying -140 is out of the question for me. Instead of betting -120 on a straight -1 line available at some books, I manufactured a better -1 hybrid line where I am essentially laying -120 but have the prospect of a +105 return if Minnesota claims a 2+ run margin over Detroit. This is far from sexy and the Twins are anything but a lock in 2021 – but I’ll take my chances by fading the Tiger bullpen for 5 or 6 innings.
Around the Horn
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