Let’s just say that the St. Louis Cardinals and I are not seeing eye to eye these days. At least the New York Mets had my back Wednesday as David Peterson pitched a gem. Then Ronald Acuna helped us get over the mark to seal up a much-needed winning day for my featured handicaps. Yesterday’s weather threatened a couple sides that I liked and ultimately postponed those games, giving me another day off from MLB action. So without further delay, it’s time for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-17-2021.
Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds (-135)
Saturday’s weather east of the Mississippi looks to be overcast and cool, though most venues should avoid precipitation. Cincinnati’s 10-3 win last night over their intrastate rival apparently showed that this club means business in their house. They contributed to a sixth over in seven games at Great American Ballpark by making quick work of Cleveland starter Logan Allen. The Reds looked refreshed after a day off following travel from San Francisco despite not having Mike Moustakas due to illness. As of this morning, his status is probable for this afternoon’s game.
I’ll be blunt here in saying that I expected a disappointing offense from my Cincinnati Reds this season. And, honestly, I think that will still manifest itself over the next five months. But in the meantime, Cincy has been a net positive in the young season against both lefties and righties. They face a right hander this afternoon and look to keep their .840 OPS vs. RHP rolling. Although their offensive proliferation has been lumpy, the Reds’ run production has been unarguably strong in their seven home games. How does 9.57 runs/game sound? It’s even better considering they have yet to score less than 5 runs at GABP.
Cleveland, on the other hand, has relied heavily on pitching and run prevention to achieve a 7-6 record. They’ve scored more than 4 runs just three times this season – all against the Detroit Tigers. And the Indians have struggled against righties to date, posting a 74 wRC+ and a .152 ISO. I think the Cincinnati side is still worth a play up to -135 and the first 5 inning wager even more so up to -150. But that comes with the risk of the unknown regarding starter Sonny Gray, who was just activated to make today’s start after missing the vast majority of Spring Training.
The Bullpen Discrepancy
These two bullpens have been night-and-day so far this season. I projected Cleveland’s relievers to perform at an above-average level again and have generally executed to that expectation. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been electric with his insane cutter, racking up 3 saves on the back of a 1.64 FIP/2.94 xFIP. He and setup man James Karinchak are one of the best lockdown relief duos in 2021. These two plus Nick Wittgren had the night off on Friday and should be ready to roll this afternoon.
Cincy’s relief unit is well rested after having Thursday off and having expended only three of their bottom-tier middle relievers in last night’s blowout win. This group has lagged my expectation for the most part, however, they have not called upon their high-leverage guys very often recently. Closer Amir Garrett took his lumps early in two games against Pittsburgh then rallied for a save against Arizona. But the guy has been far from unhittable and is struggling a bit with his control. Fortunately, the Reds have a decent supporting cast between Lucas Sims, Sean Doolittle, and the versatile Tejay Antone. All that said, Cincinnati does not want to rely on having to win the bullpen battle this afternoon with Cleveland’s late-inning hammers ready to jump in.
T. McKenzie (R) vs. S. Gray (R)
The Reds welcome one of their best starters into the fold as Sonny Gray is set to make his 2021 debut. Fansided’s Blog Red Machine expects his return to “reignite the entire roster“, which sounds fantastic to a Redlegs fan like myself. His alternate site work appeared to be on track, but we should take any lofty expectations with a grain of salt this afternoon. Supposedly he will not have a pitch count, though it is tough to project him going much farther than the 6th inning if he is indeed effective. Gray’s strength throughout his career has been a consistent ground ball rate above 50% and the propensity for medium contact. Since joining the Reds in 2019, Sonny’s home run rate has stayed below 1 per 9 innings and his strikeout rate has been right around the 30% mark for the first time in his career.
Gray’s counterpart, rookie Triston McKenzie, is still finding his footing in 2021. His 35.5% strikeout rate is phenomenal but the flip side of a 19.4% walk rate is equally as troubling. In addition to all those walks, McKenzie’s heavy reliance on his fastball could play right into Cincinnati’s hot hands. Guys like Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, and Joey Votto have been crushing fastballs this season. McKenzie may need to lean more on his slider and curve but control issues could turn those pitches into walks or create hitter’s counts more often. Then again, the Reds don’t have the most patient batters in their lineup – earning just a 8.0% walk rate to date. But there will be a slight breeze blowing out and this is a strength vs. weakness scenario that I won’t pass up.
WAGER: Reds Team Total Over 4 Runs -110
If your book offers just one number on team totals, it looks like over 4.5 runs at +120 is the going rate. Will the hook make a significant difference? Possibly, although if the Reds strike early the Tribe may need to bring in relievers who worked last night or their high-leverage hammers earlier than planned. 4.5 is the max you probably want to go, but the plus-money return is just as appealing as over 4 at -110. If all else fails, the Reds side at -135 is doable but tread cautiously with a subpar bullpen and the unknown with Sonny.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-110)
T. Glasnow (R) vs. J. Montgomery (L)
Let’s get right to the point – Tampa Bay’s offense sets up quite nicely for this afternoon’s competition. Opposing pitcher Jordan Montgomery has performed to a solid 4 FIP level throughout his career with a well-rounded repertoire of pitches and a lessening reliance on a low-90s mph fastball. He has been better at Yankee Stadium than on the road, but the Rays have been a thorn in his side in the regular season recently. Last summer, Tampa knocked him out early with 4 runs on 2 homers at Yankee Stadium. Then the Rays thumped him for 4 runs in 5 innings last week at the Trop.
Montgomery typically does not get hit for much hard contact (30% or less in 2020-2021) and is respectable when it comes to getting ground ball contact (40% or better in 2020-2021). Despite his apparent weakness with the long ball, that’s not necessarily how the Rays have made their mark in 2021. They have been exceptional against lefties in the early goings with a 129 wRC+, picking up where they left off last year. Austin Meadows and Mike Brosseau have worked walks and both have a .240 ISO against southpaws. Plus Joey Wendle, Yandy Diaz, and Manuel Margot have .280 or higher averages against left-handed pitching.
The only factor that does not make the Rays a slam dunk against Montgomery is that these five hitters have had most of their LHP success against the fastball. Jordan has lessened his dependence on the fastball this season by about 10% – although this did not prevent Tampa Bay from their big day last week. Additionally, Tyler Glasnow has been superb in his first three starts of the season. Glasnow’s 1 run in 19.2 innings is arguably a bit deceptive considering that the Red Sox are the only explosive offensive team that he has faced so far. Still, Tyler has struck out 29 batters and faces a Yankees team that has whiffed on 24.1% of their at bats.
WAGER: Rays First 5 Innings -120 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Rays First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs +135 (1/2 unit)
Jordan Montgomery could pull a 180 and flip the script on a Rays team that has had his number recently. But you cannot overlook the fact that Tampa Bay continues to hit left-handed pitching well again this season. And until proven otherwise, Tyler Glasnow is a bet-on pitcher whose strikeouts should be trouble for the Yankees offense. Oddly enough, I do not trust the Tampa Bay bullpen as much as last season – and New York’s relievers have collectively been the best in the majors in 2021. So cut the bullpens out pf the mix if you agree on the Rays side. Plus I’m going with a nice plus-money shot that the Rays put up 3 runs against Montgomery for the third time in a row. It’s another half-and-half position that looks for a 3-1 or 4-2 type of outcome after 5 innings.
Around the Horn
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