Previous Week Plays – 4-1
Season Record – 45-31-4

Divisional Round Recap:

Going 4-1 with our picks in the Divisional round has us knocking on the door of the coveted 60% win percentage that is our goal each season. There are still some opportunities with three games remaining so hopefully we will finish strong and hit our target. Our Divisional round started strong as we double-dipped with the Packers first half spread and game spread hitting both with relative ease, and also the first leg of our teaser with them. The other wins were a little closer but ended up coming through as the Chiefs completed the unconventional teaser holding off the very “game” Browns without Patrick Mahomes for a good chunk of the second half. The under in the Saints and Buccaneers game held, just barely as the Bucs pulled away in the fourth quarter to advance. Our sole loss was the Kansas City Chiefs team total that we had taken as an over at 32.5 It legitimately had a chance, however when Mahomes went out, it was all but doomed as a Chad Henne wounded duck into the end zone was picked off and the Chiefs went to a heavy ground game after the fact. Not the most riveting four games we’ve ever seen in the Divisional slate, but the 4-1 winning weekend made it pretty enjoyable overall.

Championship Round Preview:

And then there were four. With all due respect to the Saints and Ravens, it sure feels like the top four teams from this season are meeting up for the AFC and NFC Championships this Sunday. Three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and one newbie lead their respective teams with some serious collective talent and firepower, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs and Packers were in this position one year ago, while the Bills and Buccaneers are riding a wave of great excitement and hope as they take to the road. Just one win separates these teams from the biggest stage in the sporting world. It’s a rematch from earlier in the season in each contest that saw the Packers and Bills each on the receiving end of their biggest losses. (The Bills technically lost by more to the Titans). Both home teams are sitting at around a field goal favorite and the over/under totals are in the low 50’s. Early money has come in on the road teams, but is evening out as the week is going on. It will be good football weather, certainly a little chilly, so stay bundled up and get ready for the last two games of the season before the Super Bowl.

NFC Championship Game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

vs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-3)
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (EVEN)
Over/Under 51 (-110)

You’d have to think that the NFL is drooling over the fact that the first game of the doubleheader Sunday features arguably the two best quarterbacks in the history of the sport. The Buccaneers battered Aaron Rodgers in their earlier season matchup and cruised to an easy victory despite a fast start by Green Bay in that game. Both teams enter the game pretty red-hot offensively as each defense will look to slow them down enough to help their team get the win. Looking over the past two months of the season, these teams have a similar record against the spread, and the Bucs have dominated on the road, while the Packers have been unbeatable at home, as usual.

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

Although they weren’t explosive in their matchup against the Saints, the Tampa Bay offense continued to roll along in impressive fashion. Leonard Fournette ripped up some nice gains against a stout defense and both he and Ronald Jones II should find some nice room against the Packers. The Buccaneers should have a solid advantage in the trenches overall as their offensive line is coming together at the right time after an up and down performance for much of the regular season. They match up well against Green Bay as well, as the Packers generate their best pressure on the edge, something Tom Brady can live with as he’s a master at stepping up in the pocket. The biggest responsibility on the Packers defense rests with DT Kenny Clark who must get a push on the interior of the defensive line and get pressure in Brady’s face. If he’s able to do that it will force Brady to get rid of the ball quickly and give the Packer secondary opportunities to make big plays. On the Tampa side, keep an eye on Antonio Brown at the wide receiver position as he could be in line for a big game. He left last weeks game with an injury but it looks like he should be fine to suit up this weekend. J’aire Alexander will spend most of his time matched up with Mike Evans, and there will be some brackets with Chris Godwin, so Brown could find himself with some favorable matchups if Brady has the time to get the ball to him.

THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:

The Packers were able to neutralize the tough Rams defense last weekend as Rodgers mostly did what he wanted and they ran the ball with effectiveness. (Aaron Donald being limited probably helped a bit). Nevertheless, they proved that even without their star left tackle David Bahktiari they are a formidable group in the trenches. It’s going to be an absolute slugfest with guys like Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul and possibly a returning Vita Vea on the Bucs’ defense versus the tough Packers front. Tampa defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is as straightforward as it gets as a defensive coordinator. He wants to stop the run on first down and bring pressure on later downs. We are betting that Aaron Rodgers has a slight advantage the second time playing against Bowles’ defense and knowing what to expect. Down the stretch the Buccaneers weren’t quite as dominant as they’ve been stopping the run, something we saw last week as Alvin Kamara had good success running on early downs. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are critical in this game to keep Green Bay ahead of the sticks. It’s not like Aaron Rodgers can’t convert 3rd and longs, but if that’s the situation GB finds themselves in all day they won’t win this game. They want to stay in third and manageable situations and trust Rodgers to make the right reads, hard counts and safe passes when necessary. While it’s not easy to find a ton of matchup edges in this game, there is one area where Green Bay has a big advantage, and that’s with the NFC’s top receiver Davante Adams. Adams should be in line for a huge day as he is flat out better than the defensive backs that will be attempting to cover him. The Bucs’ could be forced to make the decision to bring pressure or try to double Adams, which is not a scenario they want to be in. Regardless of what happens in this game, Davante Adams should have a big day and lead this offense as per usual.

KEY STATS:
– The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Buccaneers are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Packers are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 home games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Green Bay Packers 55%

THE SKINNY:
This spread opened at Green Bay -4 and some early sharp money has driven it down to around -3 at most books. How do you bet against Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers? Maybe that’s why the spread is set at 3 as this game could end up being a straight up push with the Packers holding serve at home. In actuality, despite an absence of fans, homefield seems to have everything to do with this game, despite the fact the Bucs’ have been road warriors this season. If this game were on a neutral field, it feels like the Buccaneers would be the right side and the game might be a pick em’, or even see Tampa favored. When Green Bay won homefield advantage in week 17 of the season, it just seemed like that was going to be the difference to propel them into the Super Bowl. If any team and quarterback can prevent that it’s Brady and this Tampa Bay team that already stopped Green Bay once this season. Fun stat – Tom Brady has never lost to a Mike Pettine coached defense (8-0 all time). With that being said, there are different angles to wager that you’ll find at the bottom of this article that seem to make more sense than simply playing the side. We’re giving an ever so slight edge in the game to Green Bay though as Aaron Rodgers is playing possibly the best football of his career and simply doesn’t make mistakes at Lambeau. In a game that could come down to one key play or turnover, based on what we’ve seen this season, we’re trusting Rodgers and the Packers to have the slight advantage over Brady and the Bucs’ in that department. If you can get Tampa at +3.5 that’s not a terrible play though, and getting points seems to be a better option despite the fact we like Green Bay here.

BetCrushers Lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Green Bay Packers 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

AFC Championship Game

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

Buffalo Bills (15-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-120)
Over/Under 54 (-110)

All eyes are on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as he gets healthy after suffering some form of concussion in their win over the Browns a week ago. All signs point to Mahomes being ready to go on Sunday when they welcome in the Buffalo Bills in another rematch that Kansas City won in week six of the season. This Bills team is healthier than it was in the first matchup and is playing really good football since their loss to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals on the last second bomb from midfield. Much like in the early game, the offenses have plenty of firepower, so it could come down to which team can make the necessary stops on defense, or who has the ball last in the game.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

A rather pedestrian performance for a Buffalo offense that had been flying high for most of the season as they mustered only 10 points against the Ravens. As with any stat there is a little more to the story when you start turning the pages. First, the Ravens defense was healthy and disciplined in their approach making it tough for the Bills to sustain offense. There were a few opportunities for Buffalo to make plays, but Josh Allen couldn’t seem to connect as the wind ended up being a much bigger factor for both teams. It’s all in the rear view now as the Bills are going to need to put a lot more points up on the board against the Chiefs in Arrowhead if they want to advance to the big game. Just as the networks will be discussing, it really does come down to Josh Allen and how much he can do to carry this team. Offensive coordinator called fairly “vanilla” games against both the Colts and Ravens and now that he’s fully focused on his role as OC, don’t be shocked if we see a little more creativity on Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t great at the linebacker position so it also won’t be surprising if Allen has opportunities, both scripted and unscripted, to use his legs. How much he runs remains to be seen, yet we know for certain he will be looking for Stefon Diggs in the passing game. Diggs had 6+ receptions in every game this season except for one, a really impressive stat. Allen must be able to connect with Diggs and his other weapons when plays are open, which they will be at times during the game. Missed long throws, or kicking field goals rather than scoring touchdowns, are good ways to get beaten by the Chiefs. It goes without saying, but not turning the ball over is absolutely mandatory for Allen and the Bills. When the Chiefs create turnovers, they’re nearly impossible to beat. When they don’t their defense can give up a lot of points. A couple of quieter battles to watch are former Chief Mitch Morse at center for Buffalo matching up with game-wrecker Chris Jones in the middle of the line. Morse played well down the stretch and needs to keep Jones from getting after Allen so he has time to let deeper routes develop. Also, keep an eye on rookie kicker Tyler Bass. After a great regular season, he missed a pair of field goals against the Ravens. Again, wind played a huge factor in those misses (ask Justin Tucker), but how will he respond with the pressure on him? Although the magic number in this game is tough to pinpoint for the Bills offense, it seems like they’ll need to put up at least 30 points, and maybe even more to have a chance in this one.

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

Assuming Patrick Mahomes is a go and not physically limited, everyone knows what to expect from the Chiefs offense. It’s almost redundant to the point of boredom to recap what they like to do week in and week out. The huge question will be do the Bills shift their defensive gameplan from the first time these teams played or will they stay true to that formula that “kept them in the game”? In the first matchup, Buffalo played a deep cover two dropping their linebackers an extra three yards back to try to bottle up Travis Kelce and keep Tyreek Hill and the speed of the Chiefs receivers from beating them over the top. Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy were patient to the tune of 46 rushes as they took what the Bills allowed them to get ripping off consistent 5 and 6 yard gains all evening long. Expect Leslie Frazier to be slightly more aggressive as he should have his defensive roster mostly intact, however they’ll still be dropping safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer deep in coverage leaving the run game and short middle of the field open. Can Reid and Bieniemy remain patient again and take those effective runs and short passes? On obvious passing downs, the key for the Chiefs will be giving Mahomes time against four man rushes as Frazier will again be reluctant to bring extra rushers leaving the corners exposed. Their offensive line has not played great as some key injuries and absences have impacted them more than many anticipated. Mitchell Schwartz is an absolute eraser at his tackle position and it’s obvious this team needs him back badly. Jerry Hughes and the Bills pass rush really stepped up against the Ravens and need to replicate that performance in some battles that they should be able to win. At the end of the day, there is going to be production of some sort from the Chiefs big three of Mahomes, Kelce and Hill. In the first meeting it was Clyde Edwards-Helaire who stepped up to make the difference. Can one of their running backs or a player like Mecole Hardman be the “x” factor for Kansas City as they look to repeat as Super Bowl champs?

KEY STATS:
– The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Bills are 1-4 straight up and ATS in their last 5 vs the Chiefs
– The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Chiefs are 11-1 straight up in their last 12 games

PUBLIC MONEY: – Buffalo Bills 52%

There are some good young quarterbacks in the AFC when you think of Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, but don’t be surprised if Josh Allen versus Patrick Mahomes becomes one of those marquee matchups over the next six or seven years. Mahomes has the early advantage as both he and has team “arrived” before Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Things have tightened up a bit though as the Chiefs have struggled in several games this season, before ultimately prevailing and finding ways to win. It feels like this game will end up being really close as well and the question may be which coaching staff can better position their team to win? If the Chiefs can replicate their success running the football and Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy can stay committed to it, they should be able to grind out another win. Conversely, the Bills need to try to get up early in this game and push the tempo on the offensive side of the ball. Arrowhead will be rocking even with only 17,000 fans and with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line, will Josh Allen be able to stay calm and composed as he has for most of this season? It’s tough to go back-to-back in the NFL, but if any quarterback and team can do it, it’s definitely Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. Because you can basically flip a coin to try to get to the bottom of this one, we’re going to play the trends and go with the team that’s been covering, although the champs are the champs until someone dethrones them. If you do like the Bills in this game, wait until Mahomes is officially announced as cleared as you’ll likely steal a half point or possibly even a point so you can maximize your line value.

BetCrushers Lean: Buffalo Bills +3
Kansas City Chiefs 28, Buffalo Bills 26

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:

Two potentially really good games on tap and we’re a little light with only two plays both on the first half of the first game. We’ll have some player props coming out Friday/Saturday so keep a look out for that if you want some ideas on further betting and to include the AFC Championship as well. As far as these games, here is what we’re locked in on: