A colossal bullpen failure compromised the Texas +120 run line play, but fans in the Metroplex still went home celebrating a Rangers 10-9 win. Despite being up 10-2 going into the 8th inning, this game was far from over with the Texas and Seattle bullpens in action. Seattle’s 7 runs on 2 homers evaporated that 8-run lead in a hurry!
The 0-1 disappointment starts week 8 off with a thud and calls for an inspection of my run line plays. I put the run line on probation a few weeks back after a string of 1-run games that did not cover. They soon turned around and became a strong boon to the bankroll right up to this weekend. Oddly enough, I had been kicking some ideas around with the BetCrushers team to use a -1 run line play to protect the downside better.
One of our guys kicked in the manufactured -1 play (50/50 run line-money line split) and saved quite a bit of pain between the Rangers last night and the Cubs on Sunday. Now my interest is definitely piqued after late-game kicks to the teeth in back-to-back nights. The run line was a tool I implemented in the 2018 season to supplement my primarily underdog money line wagering.
Run lines are still slightly positive for me this season but the last 2 days’ results have knocked this back. My lean on the Cardinals run line tonight (+110) is going to remain only a lean until I have an opportunity to back test the performance of a -1 run line play vs. the conventional -1.5 spread. I will start with my 2019 games to see if there is a substantial difference one way or another. My mind is certainly open to finding better ways to be sharp in this handicapping world, especially when my teammates present good ideas.
I’ll have results of this comparison ready for wagering Wednesday morning and will leave the Cardinals on the bench in the meantime. For now, my sights are set on a single play in Cleveland…
Oakland A’s @ Cleveland Indians
In Bassitt We Trust: A’s +129
Here’s to hoping I’m not a day late and a dollar short (well, quite a few dollars) on the Oakland A’s. They were a good moneymaker for me in spots early in the season but I have been mostly on the sidelines for their games in the last few weeks. This evening, they face a club that I recently put on the no-fly list primarily because my bets on them seemed to fall on those days where they had a complete failure of both pitching and hitting. That’s a bad combination from what I understand, unless you’re on the other side.
Chris Bassitt is a guy who has been impressive since joining the Oakland rotation in late April. He’s filling an important need for the A’s and has been doing so with a solid 46% ground ball rate and a paltry 29% hard contact rate. His weak spot is arguably giving up home runs; he’s coughed up 5 long balls but has yielded only 7 runs in 32.2 innings. His strikeout rate is consistently strong but he needs to limit walks. The A’s have a decent bullpen to pick things up where Bassitt leaves off and I give them an edge over Cleveland’s offense.
The way I see it, Trevor Bauer is the wild card in this game despite my underlying feeling that the Indians have the potential to put up runs unexpectedly. They’ve scored 9 or more runs in 3 of their last 6 games, though they faced poor pitching in those situations. Bauer was on point in Oakland on May 11th, yielding 2 runs (0 earned) in 7 solid innings of work. But that start was sandwiched between a pair of home outings in which he gave up 7 earned runs in each game.
Is Bauer a coin-flip guy where you don’t know what you’re going to get out of him? Or can he be expected to perform poorly yet again at Progressive Field? His 38% ground ball rate and tendency to hand out walks lately (11 BBs in 3 of his last 4 starts) aren’t conducive to keeping things in check. If he gets bounced early, the Indians have one of the best bullpens in the MLB. Cleveland befuddles me without a doubt and I would not be surprised if they throw me for a loop and get the win. I’ll play the numbers by backing Bassitt and fading Bauer this evening as the A’s shoot for 5 wins in a row.
