Despite putting in work to handicap the short card, yesterday was damn near a day off with only one play: Yankees RL +115. The 3-1 Yankees win had most of the action take place in the last 2 innings, in which 3 of the 4 runs were scored. Leake and Happ pitched very good games that were assisted by a wind that was blowing in. The Yankees appeared to be making more solid contact as compared to the Mariners regardless of the weather conditions. Seattle’s bullpen gave up a pair of crucial runs in the 8th that proved to be essential for the Yankees run line win.
The narrative coming in to that game was that the Mariners crush lefty pitching, something which I believed to be more of an early-season relic. Furthermore, their OPS v. lefties was only 10 points above the Yankees’ OPS for the entire season. New York’s offensive production was steady while the Mariners’ was heavily front-loaded in the season. Seattle’s offensive production in the previous 10 games had been wildly inconsistent; they scored 39 runs with 20 of those runs coming in 2 10-run games. The Mariners have become a team that can explode on occasion but are no better than average the vast majority of the time. Current form matters quite a bit in the MLB.
Thursday’ 1-0 victory for +1.15 units pushes the week up to 6-6 with a small 0.45-unit profit. Not bad after a disastrous 0-5 Tuesday. Things continue to plod steadily forward. Friday night provides a little more action with 3 plays on tap…
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Let’s go right back to today’s topic: the Seattle Mariners vs. a left-handed starter. Seattle faces Eduardo Rodriguez at Fenway Park with Erik Swanson on the mound. Swanson had a great 0-run performance last time out against the Indians, but gave up 10 earned runs and 18 hits in his previous 2 starts. Due to the Mariners’ poor defense, the team gave up another 4 runs on his line as well. They’re still 2-8 in their last 10 games, including 2-5 on the road in that period. Seattle is a little banged up too; Dee Gordon was hit on the arm by a pitch last night and is not expected to play, and Edwin Encarnacion rolled his wrist and may be less effective than normal.
But this isn’t a Mariners auto-fade here either. Eduardo Rodriguez is not bulletproof, and as I said before, the Mariners have the potential to explode for a ton of runs. He seems to have settled down, yielding only 6 runs in his last 3 starts. The .359 BABIP is concerning against a powerful lineup, though his 5.40 ERA/3.69 xFIP differential says that there may be more to the story.
Since I’ve leaned on the notion that current form matters, you have to like the momentum that Boston has. They’re on an 8-2 run that includes 3-0 at home and have won by at least 2 runs in 7 of those 8 wins. The Sox offense has been getting more hits and are converting them to runs much better lately, while Seattle is the exact opposite. Boston’s bullpen is much sharper than in the early season and Seattle’s has been consistently worse. Anything can happen in a given game, especially with Rodriguez on the mound. But the trends and numbers skew heavily towards Boston in this situation.
Current Form Matters: Red Sox RL -110
Washington Nationals @ LA Dodgers
You get the feeling that the Nationals had all the planets lined up in their favor last night. They shut down the Dodgers’ bats, scored more runs than they had in 5 games, and took advantage of some egregious errors. Things may be looking up for the struggling Nats…or was it just a fluke? They’re going to need more of that magic with Anibal Sanchez on the hill tonight. Despite a decent start last time out, he consistently gives up runs in his short outings. The team is 2-5 in their last 7 road games and finally snapped a 4-game losing streak last night.
Kenta Maeda is quite inconsistent though, giving up 4+ runs in 3 starts and limiting runs to 1 or less in a different 3 starts. He consistently gives up walks, which can be playing with fire in the majors. While the Dodgers bullpen is not as consistently bad as Washington’s, it can be very volatile and blows games from time to time. However, I trust this offense much more than their opponent’s and their defense is typically much better than the Nats’. They’re 3-1 in their last 4 at home and I expect them to get back on track.
Shake it Off: Dodgers RL +100
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
It’s been a hell of a ride for the Tigers the last couple days, getting thumped 13-0 by the Angels one day after crushing them 10-3. They roll into Minneapolis with Tyson Ross, who has been fading from a very nice start to the season. He’s given up 9 earned runs in his last 2 starts and the team is 1-3 in their last 4 games on the road.
Jake Odorizzi has been surprisingly great this year and comes into tonight’s game with good form (0 runs in 13 innings over his last 2 starts). His 2.78 ERA is significantly lower than his 4.48 xFIP but this matchup is not a scary one for him. The Twins are playing great ball with the best winning percentage in baseball. They’re 7-3 in the last 10 games, including 3-1 at home and have won by at least 2 runs in their last 6 wins.
