After an 0-fer on Tuesday, a 3-1 bounce back Wednesday was just what the doctor ordered. A 4-0 sweep would have been spectacular but I will happily take the +2.22 and get week 6 back to a respectable 5-6 for -0.70 units. No reason to run and hide from a rough day…just gotta keep plugging away.
Yesterday’s plays had it all: the Brewers jumped out early and often against Hellickson and the Nationals, as expected. But the Nats made it interesting by loading the bases in the 9th with 1 out, down 7-3. The run line hung in the balance but Hader came in and slammed the door with a pair of Ks. Detroit absolutely dominated the Angels but the Reds fell to the A’s in extras. The most dramatic game of the day was the Rangers insane comeback against the Pirates, in which Texas scored 7 runs in the last 2 innings to take the game 9-6. That was certainly the difference maker of the day.
To be honest, I had a difficult time finding reasonable value on Thursday’s short card. +195 on the White Sox was tempting but the high price just did not justify my backing, despite the Indians anemic offense and an overvaluing of Carlos Carrasco. But there was one game that skeptically got my money…
Seattle Mariners @ NY Yankees
Kikuchi and the Mariners brought the total package to Yankee Stadium yesterday in a 10-1 blowout. Seattle bled Loaisiga for 4 runs early and popped the long relievers for 6 more late. Kikuchi was a boss, giving 7.2 innings of 3-hit, 1-run dominance. Seattle prepares to head to Boston, while the Yankees will head south for an important AL East matchup with division leader Tampa Bay.
The series finale pits a pair of veterans who have certainly seen better days. Mike Leake and J.A. Happ are home-run prone contact pitchers that should make this game quite “interesting”. In fact, I was challenged to find a true standout differentiator between these guys that would materially affect how I project the game flow. So no clear advantage there. When it comes to bullpens, I prefer New York’s over Seattle’s.
Both offenses have enough firepower to muscle their team to a win. What I appreciate the most from the Yankees as a handicapper is their consistency in hitting and run scoring. The Mariners can explode for double-digit runs on any night. Let’s take Seattle’s current 10-game run (in which they are 2-8) where they have scored 39 runs. But 20 of those runs – over half – were scored in 2 games, including last night. They are boom-or-bust lately. I’m willing to fade an unanswered explosive output from Seattle by backing the Yankees on the run line (which is still on probation) without much confidence in either pitcher.
