Another NL West title for the Dodgers. This time, however, Los Angeles was not denied the franchise’s seventh World Series Championship. Six months earlier, there was plenty of optimism to go around the division. Arizona was positioned to build on a gritty 2019 season while San Diego looked the part of a playoff team. They ended up being much more than that. The Padres finished with the third-best record in the MLB – right behind the pennant-winning Dodgers and Rays – while feasting on the bottom three in the West. So is San Diego finally ready to step in front of L.A., or will we see business as usual in the 2021 NL West?
2020 Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers (World Series Champs)
2020 NL West Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (43-17)
- San Diego Padres (37-23)
- San Francisco Giants (29-31)
- Colorado Rockies (26-34)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (25-35)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2021 Win Total: Open 101.5, Now 103.5
2020 Result: Over 38 (43-17)
What can I say about the World Champion Dodgers that you don’t already know? They crushed at the plate (MLB-best .227 ISO), kept batters off the base paths (rotation 1.07 WHIP), and finished with a stout bullpen (2nd-best ERA & FIP). L.A. had 43 wins, the most of anyone in the majors. And they needed them to hold off a surging San Diego club with just as much firepower. Instead, the Dodgers tightened their grip and walked away with a tenth consecutive division title. As if that wasn’t enough for one year, team President Andrew Friedman extended newly-acquired superstar outfielder Mookie Betts through 2032. The club raised the stakes and raked in the chips…for now, anyways.
The “downside” to Betts’ move to the National League was getting stuck behind Freddie Freeman in the MVP vote. Mookie’s 3.0-WAR season was second in the NL behind Freddie, who finally got his due. Betts’ 149 wRC+ and 16 bombs amped up the already juggernaut-like Dodgers lineup and at times his defense was even more eye-popping. Betts’ incredible arm and intuition for fielding contributed 10 runs to a defense that saved 33 as a whole. That’s the sort of performance that will earn you five straight Gold Gloves, which is icing on a resume that includes a World Series Championships in each league over a three-season span. Mookie was the nudge that the Dodgers needed to get them over the hump.
OK, Give Me the Bad News
Everything wasn’t all roses in L.A. (I may be grasping at straws here). For one, the Gavin Lux train barely got out of the station last season. The prized prospect second baseman should have taken the league by storm, but couldn’t keep his spot in the lineup. Closer Kenley Jansen’s batting average against and WHIP continued to rise as his strand rate inflated. That said, only one out of seven Dodger relievers who pitched at least 19 innings posted a FIP greater than 3.15 – and it wasn’t Jansen. Starter Walker Buehler took a slight step back, but that was neutralized by Clayton Kershaw’s bounce-back season. Plus, Julio Urias stepped up as a reliable lefty and 23-year old Dustin May put another ten big league starts under his belt.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 104 – 108
The Dodgers were having such a quiet offseason until February 5th. That was the day that the Champs signed reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. L.A. saw the Padres bring in some heavy hitters and countered with the most anticipated signing of the offseason. Several prominent names like Pedro Baez, Joc Pederson, and Kike Hernandez left in free agency, yet the club did little to replace them from outside the organization. Why look outside when the answers can be found within? This club has so much depth and talent, but is it enough to defend their title?
Rotation
Trevor Bauer exploded for the Cincinnati Reds, putting together a dominant season on the mound. The 30-year-old cranked up his spin rate and delivered career-best strikeout and walk rates. As Zach Hayes from PitcherList.com said, “a 400 RPM jump with no hint of a corresponding velocity increase is decidedly not normal.” So after a 6+ WAR full season equivalent, the Dodgers came strong with a three-year, $102M deal. If there’s any knock on the contract, it seems based too heavily on repeating last year’s performance several times over. Especially when Bauer’s ultra-low .215 BABIP season warns of some reversion to a projected mid-3.00s FIP. But I’m not the guy making payroll and my handicap is focused strictly on 2021 – so spend away.
Until proven otherwise, Clayton Kershaw still presides over the Dodgers rotation. At the ripe age of 32, projections show the old lefty dealing at a similar level as Bauer this season. He’s not as dominating as he was five years ago, but this duo is good for 7+ WAR. I have to say that 26-year-old Walker Buehler is the man with the biggest upside though. Buehler had a tough start to the season and battled some blister problems, but this is a low-3.00s FIP pitcher who can get you 6 innings a start. And don’t sleep on the bottom of L.A.’s rotation, stacked with guys like Julio Urias, David Price, and Dustin May. This is incredible depth that can help the Dodgers weather the storm of a 162-game season.
Position Players
You’d think that Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez leaving town would leave some holes in the Dodgers lineup. Although it saps some of their depth, this team is certainly not lacking in talent. Hernandez may not be missed so much if Gavin Lux gets his act together after a rough .175/.246/.349 season. But until Lux figures it out, Chris Taylor and Corey Seager are a strong 7-WAR duo up the middle. Seager is the more prolific hitter of the two (career .295/.362/.500) and should be one of four Dodgers with 30+ homers this year. Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy can easily get there if health is on their side. Hell, catcher Will Smith could reach that plateau if he played every day.
As many expected, the Dodgers re-signed third baseman Justin Turner to a two-year, $34M deal – sparing the club from having a significant hole in their lineup. His return was pretty big, actually. Outside of Turner and Nolan Arenado, the market for third basemen was weak this offseason. Considering that Turner is a career .292 hitter coming off of a .307/.400/.460 year, the World Champions had to bring him back for their title defense. And given the underlying metrics and indicators, I have no reason to think that one of the most consistent hitters in the game today won’t post his eighth straight .275+ batting average as a Dodger.
Bullpen
At least for Opening Day, Kenley Jansen is back as L.A.’s closer – especially after his “Spring Training debut sat the haters down real quick“. The last few years have been turbulent for Jansen, blowing 14 saves. Of course, he converted 82 attempts in that same period. It’s just that he always gets a ton of saves while blowing some in the process. But the days of sub-2.00 FIPs are over for Kenley and that’s why having Blake Treinen is huge. The former Athletic bounced back nicely from a rough 2019 with a 3.15 FIP and good velocity. Look for him to get plenty of save opportunities and put up a mid-3.00s FIP.
Known quantities like Joe Kelly, Corey Knebel, and long reliever Tony Gonsolin are the meat of this bullpen. They need to eat innings and protect their high-leverage relievers over 162 games. But the spicy part of L.A.’s relief unit is a pair of young guns in Victor Gonzalez and Brusdal Graterol. Graterol’s oppressive fastball/slider combo could see him get a few starts if needed. And after a stellar, yet brief, MLB debut for Gonzalez, his expectations are all over the map. There is plenty to like with this bullpen, and the whole team for that matter in 2021.
San Diego Padres 2021 Win Total: Open 94.5, Now 94.5
2020 Result: Over 30.5 (37-23)
In the interest of full disclosure, my preseason call for another San Diego sub-.500 season was a huge swing-and-miss. I originally booked under 82.5 wins at plus-money, then rebooked it at a COVID price of under 30.5 wins. The competition I anticipated from the Rockies and Diamondbacks fizzled, in part from the Padres crushing their division foes (24-16). San Diego blasted their way to the playoffs as the youngest team in the MLB in the face of my lukewarm projections: solid rotation, great bullpen … league-average lineup. League-average lineup? What the hell was I thinking last winter?
The 2020 Padres lineup was anything but league average. It hammered pitchers on a regular basis and downright feasted on righties. San Diego’s trifecta of Fernando Tatis, Jr., Manny Machado, and Wil Myers combined for 48 home runs and 132 RBIs in the 60-game season. Their rising tide lifted many ships, including a 30-year old Eric Hosmer and his career-high .517 SLG and .231 ISO. Hosmer finally delivering fantastic numbers in a Padres uniform had to be a sight for General Manager AJ Preller’s sore eyes, who picked up the pricey free agent in 2018. But don’t let those eye-popping numbers blind you to center fielder Trent Grisham, who became the Padres first Gold Glove winner in eight years. Second baseman Jake Cronenworth also came up big in his first full year of MLB action, cementing his spot in an infield that promises to be loaded for years to come.
Winning the Arms Race
San Diego’s bullpen entered the season headlined by Kirby Yates, whose 41 saves and 1.30 WHIP in 2019 earned him the role of closer last year. Things could not have gone any more wrong for Yates. He made just six appearances before an elbow injury cut his season short. Adding insult to that injury was a 5.27 FIP and 6 runs in just 4.1 innings of work. But great teams find a way to reload and the Padres did exactly that. The damage from losing Yates was limited as Drew Pomeranz, Trevor Rosenthal, Emilio Pagan, and Cal Quantrill nailed down 11 saves in his absence. This relief unit wasn’t great, but they were top-ten good and benefited from a flashy 325 runs’ worth of run support.
The Friars’ offensive proliferation boosted the confidence of their emerging rotation. Plenty of offseason buzz surrounded 24-year old righty Chris Paddack, but a rough season ending landed him on Bleacher Report’s list of most overhyped players of 2020. Paddack gave up 14 homers in 59 innings and demonstrated just how much he has to work on this offseason. But again, great teams just make it work anyway. Dinelson Lamet came to the rescue with an oppressive 0.86 WHIP and just 5 home runs in 69 innings. Former Brewer Zach Davies held his own, Garrett Richards did a yeoman’s job in filling a crucial spot in the rotation, and mid-season acquisition Mike Clevinger dazzled in four starts before injury led to Tommy John surgery.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 95 – 100
Try and make the case for any team other than San Diego winning the offseason. Newly-promoted president of baseball operations AJ Preller moved early and often, making huge waves with his winter shopping spree. Domestic or international – anyone who can add instant value to this team on the rise. The Padres doubled down on their mission to win the NL West and, ultimately, the World Series. And with many teams approaching their payrolls conservatively in 2021, the free agency and trade markets were ripe for the picking. Preller had the green light and clearly made the most of it. Not bad from a guy who was supposedly making his last stand as general manager last season.
Rotation
- Yu Darvish
- Blake Snell
- Dinelson Lamet
- Joe Musgrove
- Chris Paddack
That’s the projected San Diego Padres rotation, folks. Preller not only brought in 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell from the Rays, he snagged NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish from the Cubs. Granted, he gave up Zach Davies who was also fresh off of a career year. But these guys are huge upgrades, especially in a full season. Similar to L.A.’s Trevor Bauer, Darvish should push 4 WAR after his career season. And as long as the Padres realize that Snell’s kryptonite is his third time through the lineup, he should be good for a 3+ WAR season. This philosophy especially makes sense with San Diego’s ideal bullpen that can finish off his strong starts. But on a comparative basis, I respect Davies’ 2020 season enough to consider Snell as an equal replacement in 2021.
As if trading for Darvish and Snell wasn’t enough, the Padres swapped more prospects for Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove. When you take a step back to look at things, you realize just how potent this group is if Musgrove is in the #4 spot. Assuming that he continues to effectively mix filthy breaking pitches in with his heat, Musgrove should push 3 WAR. Arguably the most important thing that Musgrove does for San Diego’s rotation is add insurance in case Dinelson Lamet isn’t ready for opening day. When Lamet returns, I have little doubt that this rotation will be running like a well-oiled machine.
Logjam At the Back End
Even with Dinelson Lamet’s uncertain return, there is no shortage of talented arms on this pitching staff. If Chris Paddack falls out of favor, Adrian Morejon made a strong case for more MLB playing time in his brief 19.1 innings last year. And top prospect MacKenzie Gore could get his first big league action this year – the fan base seems ready to toss Paddack to the side for Gore anyhow. That’s not a bad problem for Jayce Tingler and AJ Preller to have though. Injury concerns considered, the floor of the Padres rotation should be on par with last season’s and will challenge the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets as the best in the league.
Position Players
There is more buzz for this Padres lineup than I can keep to just a few paragraphs. Fernando Tatis, Jr.’s 14-year, $340M contract extension echoes the commitment that this club has to its star players, just like Manny Machado’s 10-year, $300M deal a couple years ago. This 10-WAR duo has it all – power, average, speed, fielding, and throwing – and is projected to keep doing it for years to come. Yet as much as these two and the Padres pitching staff are playoff caliber, nearly everyone on the roster has to deliver as advertised if this team intends to win the World Series.
It helps that Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, and Wil Myers all return to the San Diego outfield. Grisham broke out with a 121 wRC+ and an insane 7 DRS, 21.1 UZR/150 season in center field that was good enough to earn a Gold Glove. As for 2021, I’ve seen good arguments on both sides whether Trent can sustain that defensive excellence. Put me in the camp that sees him continuing at a high level, just maybe not as superb as in 2020. As for the corner outfielders, I see Pham and Myers approaching equilibrium after such extremes in 2020. Tommy isn’t as bad as last year’s career-low .211/.312/.312, and Wil sure as hell won’t repeat his 154 wRC+ blowout performance.
Reinforcements Incoming!
Coveted international free agent 25-year old Ha-seong Kim migrated to San Diego from the KBO in December. The 4-year deal with Kim looks great at $25M, considering that the 25-year-old did it all in the KBO. He joins fellow utility player Jurickson Profar in a musical chairs-type of situation with the infield. While Profar will likely remain primarily as a bench player, Kim could take over at second base for rookie sensation Jake Cronenworth. Although I doubt that Jake repeats his monster .285/.354/.477, 125 wRC+ season, he and Kim make for an intriguing position battle in Spring Training. Either way, the Friars will be in good hands at second base.
San Diego’s flurry of activity also dramatically revamped the catcher position. Austin Hedges was traded to Cleveland last fall in the Mike Clevinger deal, Francisco Mejia was exchanged to Tampa Bay for Blake Snell, and Jason Castro left in free agency. But the Padres’ big lift is acquiring Austin Nola from Seattle last August. Nola offers a .250 bat and great defensive skills for this stacked Padres rotation to pitch to. Plus, Austin has plenty of experience at first base if they need to cover for the declining Eric Hosmer. And don’t forget that Victor Caratini also came over from the Cubs as Darvish’s personal catcher and well-qualified backup. Expect another top-five season of productivity from this lineup, both at the plate and on defense.
Bullpen
The rise, fall, and trade of Kirby Yates in just three years is a prime example of what the Padres bullpen has gone through recently. For starters, both Yates and Trevor Rosenthal are long gone. And more than half of this year’s projected bullpen came to the team after 2019. Guys like Austin Adams, Tim Hill, and Emilio Pagan joined either before or during the 2020 season and are projected to be important role players in this relief unit. None of these guys are household names but are very capable sub-4.00 FIP relievers.
Then San Diego welcomed two new relievers this offseason – Mark Melancon and Keone Kela. Kela has always been a promising arm with a great change-of-pace fastball/curveball combo that’s been good enough for a career 3.20 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, he’s had the dreaded combination of off-field issues and ongoing injury setbacks. As for the 36-year-old Melancon, he racked up 131 saves over the 2014-2016 seasons and then periodically closed for San Francisco and Atlanta. The guy may not strike out a ton of batters, but he gets ground balls (56.4% career) and avoids getting punished by the long ball (career 0.52 HR/9). Melancon’s stuff is still very good and adds more fuel to this bullpen’s fire. Look for it to be one of the MLB’s best yet again.
San Francisco Giants 2021 Win Total: Open 75.5, Now 74.5
2020 Win Total: Over 25 (29-31)
The San Francisco Giants exceeded win total expectations for the second season in a row, continuing their rise out of the NL West basement. The club just missed squeezing into the playoffs once again, this time losing out on the second NL wild card berth to Milwaukee. Rebounding from 2017’s lows has been less about a dramatic makeover of the roster, and more about squeezing every drop out of young talent and veterans alike. Expectations for some were tempered by the change in leadership in the dugout. After all, the revered Bruce Bochy was stepping down after three World Series Championships in 13 seasons managing the club. So in came Gaber Kapler after his unceremonious departure from Philadelphia, looking to start a reclamation project of his own.
Like Philadelphia, San Fransisco carried a big payroll into the 2020 season. Unlike the Phillies, the Giants did not have powerhouse names like Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto in their lineup. Relics from their World Series rosters like Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, and Brandon Belt were poised to be solid contributors until COVID prompted Posey to opt out of the season. Crawford was more than serviceable at shortstop while first basement Belt rose up to deliver a season of career-bests at the plate. The 32-year old’s .309/.425/.591 slash line was strong enough lead the team with 173 wRC+ and helped push San Francisco to score the fifth-most runs in the NL (299).
Johnny Cueto’s days as a true ace of the rotation have passed him by, but his wacky mechanics are timeless. Despite age and injuries exacting their toll, Johnny pitched more innings last year than any other Giants starter. First year Giants Drew Smyly, Trevor Cahill, Tyler Anderson, and Kevin Gausman all made at least five starts with varying levels of success. And longtime Oriole Kevin Gausman found his groove, striking out 79 batters at a rate of 11.92 K/9 with a 3.09 FIP.
San Francisco’s New Nucleus?
Brandon Belt’s career year accompanied unexpected performances from an interesting group of emerging big leaguers. A prime example is outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, who spent six seasons in the Baltimore farm system before being moved to the Giants organization. The front office noticed his huge AAA year in progress (12 HR, 38 R, .676 SLG) and quickly called him up to replace the struggling Mac Williamson. The grandson of Hall of Fame Carl Yastrzemski was electric in 54 games last year, slashing .297/.400/.568 with solid defense in the outfield. Then impressive seasons from newer Giants Alex Dickerson, Donovan Solano, and Wilmer Flores pushed this team well beyond expectation.
San Francisco’s long-term plans for their rotation will get a big shot in the arm if Logan Webb follows the path of Mike Yastrzemski. Like Yastrzemski, the young righty also spent six seasons in the minors before getting called up just a few months after Yaz. Webb’s 11-start season was promising in spite of a 3-4 record and 5.47 ERA. An unfortunate .345 BABIP masked what actually was a decent second major league season. As with most unproven arms, incremental improvement will earn you a spot on a roster in transition. Time will tell if he can reliably give five solid innings at the back end of the rotation though.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 69 – 73
The scrappy San Francisco Giants find themselves looking way up at the Dodgers and Padres 2021 NL West – a pair of teams that will undoubtedly lead the charge in the division. Although the team looks to be competitive again, they have the slimmest of margins when it comes to making the playoffs. And that could result in up to seven starters either being dealt in mid-season or not brought back in the winter. It’s a balancing act for general manager Scott Harris between choosing the best long-term path to success and keeping their budding nucleus.
Position Players
Should I be concerned with Mike Yastrzemski regressing after last season’s .370 BABIP? Not concerned as much as aware that his .568 slugging percentage will take a dip. Yaz projects to be a .260+ hitter along with teammates Alex Dickerson, Buster Posey, and Mauricio Dubon. Posey’s return from his precautionary hiatus is a big lift for the Giants, who also picked up veteran Curt Casali as their backup backstop. The team is significantly better defensively when Buster is behind the plate even if his power has dropped off in recent year.
San Francisco is positioned well to mitigate their aging veterans’ shortcomings via platooning. Their bench is filled with utility players like Darin Ruf, Wilmer Flores, and Austin Slater that can make hay against lefties. In fact, the Giants had the third-highest wRC+ against lefties last year (128). And their platoon approach got deeper after signing infielder Tommy La Stella to a three-year deal. He made a living as a pretty good role player until the Angels let him play more frequently – to which Tommy responded with his best years at the plate, including a league-leading 5.3% strikeout rate last season. La Stella gives up some fielding at third base compared to his platoon mate Evan Longoria, but Longo needs time off to maximize his effectiveness at the age of 35.
Rotation
San Francisco’s calling card throughout their World Series runs was a dependable group of starting pitchers. One of those mainstays, Madison Bumgarner, left for Arizona last year. And 35-year-old Johnny Cueto’s days of dominance are clearly in the rear view mirror. However, their ace may actually be hitting his peak. Kevin Gausman spent of his career in the Orioles organization before eventually landing in San Francisco. Now that he’s settled into with his new club, Gausman should grind out 170+ innings and deliver a mid-3.00s FIP season worth well over 3 WAR.
The Giants welcome another former Cincinnati Red to their pitching staff, Anthony DeSclafani. Disco needs a big rebound year after the worst season of his career that ultimately got him bounced from Cincy’s rotation. San Francisco desperately needs Anthony to regain his control this spring and fill a critical spot in their starting five. If not, things could get rough for the Giants on the mound. They’re taking on a reclamation project in Alex Wood, who hasn’t been good since he left L.A. the first time. The club is optimistic that Wood dials in for a 4.00-FIP season just like DeSclafani. And if not, Aaron Sanchez will need to pick up a ton of slack – something that’s way too much to ask from a guy who flashed brilliance in 2016 but has yet to regain that form.
Bullpen
The Giants’ closer-by-committee approach appears to have been renewed for another season. This year, however, the committee members have been shuffled around. Sam Coonrod and Tony Watson are in Philly now, creating space for free agents Jake McGee and Matt Wisler. These new additions – especially Wisler and his nasty slider – give the rotation some beef at the top end.
One really interesting piece of the Giants rotation is Reyes Moronta, who returns after missing 2020 due to a torn labrum. Moronta had a tough 2019 season in which he blew 5 saves in as many opportunities. His fastball/slider combo can be highly effective, though he has struggled with control at times and is questionable in high-leverage situations. It’s not unreasonable to anticipate a tick up after the bullpen’s nondescript performance, but my outlook for the San Francisco relief unit is more tepid.
Colorado Rockies 2021 Win Total: Open 64.5, Now 63.5
2020 Result: Under 27.5 (26-34)
My expectation is for their bullpen to be a notch better though I would not be at all surprised if this unit disappoints again. My 80-win projection relies heavily on Freeland, Gray, and Marquez combining for a 9-WAR season. They have the talent and 2020 is the year to execute.
2020 MLB Season Win Totals: NL West – BetCrushers.com – February 24, 2020
The Freeland-Gray-Marquez trifecta was simply not enough to earn the Rockies a winning season, despite having a respectable 3.8 WAR (10.3 WAR full-season equivalent). After Gray was shut down in mid-September, fourth year starter Antonio Senzatela picked up the slack. Senzatela cut down on his walk and home run rates as German Marquez continued to make his presence felt with a very impressive 3.23 FIP.
On the flip side, the Colorado bullpen let this team down too often. Their relief unit posted an MLB-worst strand rate, second-worst WHIP, and bottom-three FIP and home run rate. Although NL Comeback Player of the Year Daniel Bard, Yency Almonte, and Tyler Kinley were respectable, the rest of the crew leaked oil like a 1985 Ford Escort on its last legs. Late game pitching ineffectiveness was just one of many factors behind the Rockies’ failure to hit their repriced win total of 27.5.
Colorado’s Vanishing Act
Colorado started the season 9-3 with strong pitching and the NL’s second-highest slugging percentage. Trevor Story was mashing and Charlie Blackmon put up an astounding .436 average in the season’s first two weeks. Then things started to spiral downward. In fact, August 8th seemed to be the date on which the reversal of fortune began. Colorado finished the season middle of the pack in slugging as their field-adjusted wRC+ cratered to second worst. Only the Pirates had a worse wRC+ in the NL.
It is truly hard to tell if the Rockies would have turned things around if the 2020 season was longer than 60 games. But their trajectory certainly didn’t give the me impression that a drastic improvement was in the cards. The worst thing was management’s aversion to getting their young talent valuable major-league experience in the lost season. Although very little could be done to develop their pipeline in the COVID-handcuffed environment, GM Jeff Bridich’s late-November conference call didn’t do much to quell demands for a plan for the future.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 58 – 63
Trading away your franchise player for three mid-tier prospects paints a solemn picture of Colorado’s disheartening offseason. 8x Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado is in St. Louis now, leaving a big door open for a younger crop of position players. At least there’s consistency in the rotation though! Does the pitching staff hold the key to the franchise’s success, or will we see the Rockies continue their dizzying holding pattern in the NL West?
Position Players
The Nolan Arenado trade was no surprise to many baseball fans and handicappers. If anything, most of us thought it was going down before last season’s trade deadline. There was no love lost between Nolan and management, and that rift has further alienated the fan base. So now third base is now open for homegrown talent like Ryan McMahon to occupy. Unfortunately, he is a sub-100 wRC+ hitter like most of this roster. Ironically, Arenado’s 76 wRC+ last year set a lackluster baseline for this offense that should carry forward into 2021. Their defense will take a hit without him at the hot corner, although McMahon has shown that he can play the position fairly well in the field.
Colorado still has a handful of productive hitters like Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, and Trevor Story. Story provides elite-level hitting and superb defense at shortstop – a lot like Arenado. What makes Trevor’s production so impressive is his consistency in slugging .500+ in spite of a 25%+ strikeout rate. That’s representative of the current go-for-broke approach to hitting in the MLB, except that most players fail at the consistency part of the equation. My only reservation with banking too much on Story is that trading him this summer probably makes the most sense to the club. Expect another season of tough times for this group, especially if Trevor is shipped out.
Rotation
The Rockies lineup isn’t the only aspect that returns a lot of the same players in 2021. German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Jon Gray are back to tame the beast that is Coors Field. If there’s any consolation prize, this group of starters have pitched for the Rockies their entire major league careers and know this environment well. Yet despite their ups and downs, they keep pounding away as 4.00+ FIP arms in their spacious, mile-high ballpark.
Below the top four slots lies an opportunity for newcomer Austin Gomber to test Coors Field. The most MLB-ready trade piece in return for Arenado has a deceptive curveball and a ton of potential. I look forward to seeing what he can do in a more substantial role with the Rockies, even though my expectations are tempered in 2021. After all, Gomber presents much more upside than Ryan Castellini does after his disastrous rookie season.
While Freeland, Senzatela, and Gray tend closer to the 5.00-FIP side of the equation, Marquez continues to shine as the staff ace. All signs point toward his velocity increasing across all three of his key pitches – fastball, slider, and curve. Although last year’s 3.28-FIP performance is probably unrepeatable over a full season, don’t count out a sub-4.00 year for this inning-eater. (Un)fortunately, the Rox have Marquez under such a cheap contract through 2023 that makes him another impactful mid-season trade candidate.
Bullpen
Philadelphia, Seattle, and Miami. The Rockies bullpen joined these three clubs as the worst relief units in the league last season. At least this crew had the excuse of playing half their games in a very pitcher-unfriendly park. Unfortunately, there is not a whole lot that Colorado can do to jack this group up and out of the cellar. 35-year-old Daniel Bard gets the nod again as closer after a pretty damn good 2020 season in which he racked up 6 saves in as many opportunities and a 4-2 record. But aside from setup man Mychal Givens, this bullpen leaves a lot to be desired in middle relief. If you’ve read this far, I’ll spare you the grief of another paragraph about these guys – prepare for another 5.00+ FIP season from these guys.
WAGER: Under 64.5 Wins (bet 2/18/21)
64 wins is a very low number to take an under position on. But here’s the bottom line – this is a brutally top-heavy division that will feast on a team like the Rockies. My reasonable-case scenario calls for 60 wins with downside factors like decent mid-tier competition in the division and the potential for trading German Marquez and/or Trevor Story this summer. Those are significant factors in making the under case for Colorado, especially considering that this team outpaced its pythagorean win total by 3 games last year.
Arizona Diamondbacks 2021 Win Total: Open 74.5, Now 74.5
2020 Result: Under 31 (25-35)
To be completely honest, I expected the 2020 Arizona Diamondbacks to be up there with San Diego. I liked the makeup of this team and penciled them in as a wild card challenger exceeding their win total of 80.5. The icing on the cake came when General Manager Mike Hazen upgraded their outfield with the dual-threat Starling Marte. Starling’s presence allowed Ketel Marte to move back to his true home at second base where the risk of injury is lessened. But the D-backs’ middling start hit rough seas in mid-August, crippling their prospects of keeping pace in the top-heavy NL West.
Don’t sleep on Arizona’s rotation, even without former ace Zack Greinke. Madison Bumgarner comes in on a five-year deal after a strong 3+ WAR 2019 season. I doubt MadBum will produce at that level this year but his presence in the rotation is signficant. He heads up a staff that needs full, respectable seasons from Luke Weaver and Robbie Ray. Keep your eye on the righty, Zac Gallen, to take a big step forward with this Arizona rotation.
2020 MLB Season Win Totals: NL West – BetCrushers.com – February 24, 2020
I completely overestimated how the D-backs would perform on the mound. For starters, MadBum’s debut season with Arizona left a LOT to be desired. And Robbie Ray’s brutal season made it easy for Mike Hazen to deal him to Toronto before the trade deadline. Bumgarner, Ray, and fellow starter Luke Weaver coughed up 43 home runs in 171 innings pitched. Their 2.26 HR/9 rate was night and day compared to the 1.22 HR/9 that Merrill Kelly and emerging stud Zac Gallen laid down. Unfortunately, Kelly was lost in late August with a shoulder injury. The good news is that he is good to go for the 2021 opener, and that Zac Gallen should continue to climb the ladder in his MLB career.
Arizona quickly pivoted to the role of seller at the trade deadline. Not only did Robbie Ray get shipped, Hazen traded new acquisition Starling Marte to Miami. Perhaps more surprising was shaking the foundation of the bullpen by dealing both Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin. Although the bullpen as a whole was fairly lackluster, Bradley’s .448 BABIP as a Diamondback made him look worse than he actually was. Things weren’t much better at the plate either. Arizona’s offensive production ticked down instead of improving with Starling Marte in the lineup. The front office had no choice but to clear the decks and refocus for the near future.
Little Help in the Field
The Diamondbacks pitching staff punished themselves enough to begin with. But the true kicker was a defense that fell well short of expectations. One of the best defensive shortstops in the game, Nick Ahmed was anything but his usual run-saving self. On the positive side, Ahmed’s career-best .327 OBP masked his down year in the field. Not that the back-to-back Gold Glove winner was bad, he just wasn’t his usual self in 2020.
Arizona Diamondbacks Defensive Runs Saved, 2018-2020 (*unadjusted 60-game schedule)
| 2020* | 2019 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | -2 | 112 | 148 |
| N. Ahmed | 4 | 17 | 30 |
Defensive Runs Scored (DRS) can be an erratic metric in a 60-game season, and even more so for a single player. Even so, I think it’s safe to say that as Nick has gone in recent years the Diamondbacks defense has followed suit. Ahmed’s impact on this squad is that important. Arizona’s 2019 defense was elite and 2018’s was best in the majors – both of which were his Gold Glove seasons.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 73 – 77
As quickly the Diamondbacks’ window opened in 2019, it slammed shut even faster. So what’s the plan for 2021? Arizona’s quiet offseason was accentuated by having very few impact free agents leave the team. Mike Hazen did not stand pat with their lackluster bullpen, bringing in several late-inning arms to juice up this unit. I’d love to see this team get back on track, but the NL West is such a brutal division.
Position Players
If there is any glaring deficiency with the Diamondbacks lineup, it’s a lack of power. Outfielder Kole Calhoun was brought in to help solve this problem but suffered a torn meniscus in Spring Training. Top prospect Daulton Varsho figures to get even more playing time with Calhoun on the shelf for a while. The 24-year-old catcher jumped from AA to the big leagues last year, spending most of his time in the outfield. Despite his struggles at the plate (.188/.287/.366), the kid looked pretty good in the field. And that’s a very good thing as Arizona has the catcher spot locked up with Carson Kelly. But this team needs more power from its corner outfielders than what Varsho, David Peralta, and Tim Locastro can provide.
The big upside for Arizona’s offense still lies with second baseman Ketel Marte. It appears that he is back in the infield for good after dabbling in center field in 2019. Unfortunately, Marte came back down to earth after that All-Star 7-WAR campaign and scuffled a bit on defense. But you cannot count this kid out. He’s projected to get close to the .500 slugging mark again and should be on base plenty enough to prime the pump for his contact-hitting teammates. Corner infielders Eduardo Escobar and Christian Waker must churn through the batting order if this offense wants to succeed though. I just struggle to see how the D-backs will consistently outscore their opponents – outside of Colorado anyhow. They’ll have to pull their weight in the field and rely on the pitching staff to pick up the slack.
Rotation
In the good news department, Merrill Kelly is back from injury. And MadBum can’t be any worse than he was last year, right? Arizona’s front office expects their rotation to improve from within and I’m a buyer of that approach. Bumgarner operating at just a 5.00-FIP capacity is a significant tick up from 2020. And if Kelly follows suit – although he should be even better – this rotation gains a couple wins. Caleb Smith just better not fritter them away. Good thing former Astros prospect Corbin Martin is working his way back from Tommy John surgery in Reno. Because if Caleb stumbles or another starter suffers an injury, Martin will get his shot.
For my money, it’s Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver who must lead this team to exceed their win total. Gallen has been nothing short of impressive early in his MLB career, riding his arsenal of pitches to a 3.64 FIP. I cannot disagree with projections for him to deliver a 3-WAR season that should cement him as Arizona’s clear ace. Likewise, Weaver should rebound from a home run-heavy year where a .349 BABIP negatively skewed his production. I don’t want to fall victim to overestimating this rotation again, but these guys have some considerable talent. The D-backs starting pitching will be better in 2021 even if there is plenty of room for improvement in the following seasons.
Bullpen
Arizona’s bullpen lost a ton of leadership last year after dealing Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin. In their absence, Hazen went with a pair of scrappy 36-year-olds to fill the immediate gaps – Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard. Soria will anchor this relief unit chocked full of less-experienced arms. Plus, Soria’s fourteenth major league season was one of his best with a sub-3.00 FIP. But here’s the thing – that success came on the back of a career-high 51.6% fly ball rate that must be lowered after moving from a pitcher-friendly park to Chase Field.
Clippard, on the other hand, could be slightly disappointing after a huge season in Minnesota. He delivered the lowest FIP of his career (2.65) with 24 relief appearances and a pair of starts. Odds are that his walk rate and home run rate will rise back toward his career averages. However, you cannot dismiss his reliability even at the age of 36. And I respect Kevin Ginkel’s fastball/slider combo that generates a ton of strikeouts. He just needs to regain some control this spring, otherwise it’s going to be more free passes and bombs. Keep your eye on Stefan Crichton, who has shown that he can be a high-leverage, mid-3.00s FIP pitcher with a live sinker. Unless his velocity continues to slip, you could see him grab the closer role out of Spring Training. Arizona’s bullpen is a group that has promise, yet still enough questions to temper my enthusiasm.
2021 NL West Projected Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56)
- San Diego Padres (97-65)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88)
- San Francisco Giants (71-91)
- Colorado Rockies (60-102)
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