The AL Central proved to be very competitive down the stretch in the truncated 2020 MLB season. Three legitimate playoff teams vied for the division – Minnesota, Chicago, and Cleveland – with just a single game separating them in the end. It took a 16-8 surge from the Twins to hold off Cleveland and Chicago, sealing back-to-back AL Central crowns. The Ringer was spot on last January in saying that this division could produce “the most fascinating race of the season“. In fact, this was the only division where all five teams exceeded their season win totals. But even though all three made the postseason in the expanded playoff format, none of them escaped the first round. Now it’s time to dig in and find the winners and losers of the 2021 AL Central.
2020 Division Winner: Minnesota Twins
2020 AL Central Standings
- Minnesota Twins (36-24)
- Cleveland Indians (35-25)
- Chicago White Sox (35-25)
- Kansas City Royals (26-34)
- Detroit Tigers (23-35)
Minnesota Twins 2021 Win Total: Open 88.5, Now 88.5
2020 Result: Over 34 (36-24)
My expectations for Minnesota’s follow-up to a mind blowing 2019 campaign were admittedly low. Chances were that the Bomba Squad would have a tough time repeating their record-breaking season at the plate. And they did. Nonetheless, this team thrived in the sprint to the postseason with another tactic: keeping opponents off of the scoreboard. The Twins sharply exceeded my projections and squeezed past their lofty win total of 34. And despite inevitable setbacks to manager Rocco Baldelli’s big-bat lineup, Minnesota still persevered with their run prevention approach.
General manager Thad Levine’s offseason moves amplified the buzz from Minnesota’s division championship season. Veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson came in to bolster the defense and add even more potency to the lineup. Unfortunately, he and several other key cogs missed about half of the COVID-shortened season. As they ran into a late-August skid, the Twins got their new acquisition back from the IL right on cue – just days after center fielder Byron Buxton and starter Michael Pineda were activated. Donaldson’s return was undoubtedly big for the team. Although he was good in some situations, he generally underperformed expectations at the plate.
Assembling the Pieces
Josh Donaldson was not alone in his offensive lull. Miguel Sano’s .204/.278/.478 performance looked more like the 2018 Sano than his previous 34-homer year. Likewise, Marwin Gonzalez fell off sharply with a 53 point drop in batting average and 69 point reduction in ISO. Where Gonzalez proved to be especially useful was in the field, filling in at third during Donaldson’s absence then sliding over to shortstop. And speaking of fielding, Minnesota had a top 10 defense anchored by excellent play in the outfield. Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and especially center fielder Byron Buxton were a run-saving trio flying around Target Field.
Don’t get me wrong, the Twins offense had plenty of positives. 40-year old Nelson Cruz delivered back-to-back .300+ seasons, hitting .303/.397/.595 despite a markedly lower average exit velocity and hard hit rate. Eddie Rosario was once again a steady force with his bat, while Byron Buxton uncharacteristically clubbed the ball with a career high .323 ISO. But it was second baseman Luis Arraez who proved to be a shining star in this lineup. The 23-year-old second-year player missed half the season with lower body injuries, yet he still followed up his .334 breakout year with a .321 average and harder contact. This kid may not be a power hitter, but his knack for making solid contact bodes well for the future.
Pivoting to Plan B
Let’s assume that Twins management interpreted the team’s offensive meteoric rise in 2019 as an unsustainable spike. With little expectation that the Twins could count on bashing their opponents into oblivion again, they needed to secure a true ace after letting Kyle Gibson walk. Plus, Michael Pineda’s suspension was slated to keep him out for a big chunk of 2020. Kenta Maeda repaid the club’s vote of confidence with the best season of his MLB career. The former Dodger slashed his walk rate and limited the long ball, achieving a stellar 2.70 ERA/3.00 FIP over 11 starts.
Pineda returned in early September to make 5 solid starts without giving up a single home run – something that punished him during his final season with the Yankees. Unfortunately, it has been very difficult for his teams to fully rely on him to anchor their rotation. The bright side is that Maeda and the rest of Minnesota’s up-and-coming staff aren’t overly dependent on him. And even though Jose Berrios has yet to become the dominant starter that the Twins hoped for, he gave his club another B+ season on the mound. Additionally, former Uber driver/starting pitcher Randy Dobnak rattled off six decent outings to start the season. All told, this crew yielded the fewest home runs in the majors, posted an excellent 1.15 WHIP, and earned 22 wins without massive run support.
Supporting the Twins starters was an excellent bullpen that improved both their FIP and WHIP for a second straight season. This unit limited damage from the long ball (1.25 HR/9) by maintaining a quality 1.27 WHIP. They delivered an excellent 3.33 K/BB ratio that was better than all other bullpens except for the Indians and the Dodgers. Sergio Romo and Taylor Rogers tag teamed the closer role, notching 14 saves on the shortened season. Rogers’ move to a fastball/slider combo paid dividends with 30 saves in his 2019 banner season and another 9 in 2020. Last year’s “all hands on deck” approach was not only successful, but necessary to hold off two quality divisional opponents. So how will Minnesota keep their edge as the White Sox continues to close the talent gap in the AL Central?
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 88 – 93
Minnesota entered free agency with a rack of important pieces hanging in the balance. The ageless wonder Nelson Cruz appeared to be on his way out of town along with outfielder Eddie Rosario and relievers Trevor May and Tyler Clippard. Instead, they wisely kept the 40-year-old slugger around for another year and brought in Andrelton Simmons to firm up their middle infield defense. Yet still, the Twins front office was pretty quiet in terms of bringing in a get you over the hump impact player. All that silence led to oddsmakers flipping the script and giving the White Sox the preseason nod as favorite to win the AL Central. But something tells me this Minnesota team is not going to willfully step aside.
Position Players
One of the Twins “quiet” offseason moves was the addition of veteran shortstop Andrelton Simmons. His excellent fielding skills create an exciting double-play duo with budding star second baseman Luis Arraez. And as long as everyone knows that Simmons is a just .275 hitter without much power, his elite-caliber defense is well worth it. The big red flag is Andrelton’s recent lower body injuries and how they could thwart Minnesota’s plans. This is where having an experienced backup like Jorge Polanco can help take the edge off of Simmons inevitably losing time to nagging injuries this year.
Otherwise, the core of Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, and Miguel Sano is still in tact. Kepler is a 30-homer threat with good fielding skills alongside an excellent defensive centerfielder in Byron Buxton. The biggest issues with Buxton, however, are his career 29.5% strikeout rate and 252 games lost to injury the last four seasons. Byron’s lost time forces someone like Jake Cave into center, although Kepler has played the position well in past seasons.
Injuries could also add more weight to how their left field situation is handled. With Eddie Rosario now in Cleveland, Twins prospect Alex Kirilloff may get a lot of playing time. While the jury may be out on his fielding skills, the 23-year-old is profiled as a good hitter with pop. Kudos go to the Twins front office for progressing the organization’s top prospects to the MLB level instead of rushing them up just to fill a talent gap. Both AK and catcher Ryan Jeffers are bright spots in the future of this team. Jeffers got plenty of playing time in his rookie debut last season and is poised to split time with Mitch Garber. These two are great fits on this well-rounded team as solid defensive catchers with decent bats.
Just How Big Are the Bats?
But when you boil down this lineup, its offensive oomph hinges on Cruz, Donaldson, and Sano. Cruz’ special blend of high average and big power is highly impressive at his ripe age of 40. Then you have the big bat of Miguel Sano, who underwhelms in average but could push 40 home runs this season. But the wild card of this bunch has to be Josh Donaldson. The 35-year-old is a solid defender that has struggled with injuries lately like Buxton has. His role as a powerful, patient hitter and veteran leader in the clubhouse is quite valuable to this playoff squad. And if Donaldson gets on the field for 130+ games this is an 8-WAR, 100-home run trio. In my opinion, only a significant injury will derail this team from improving offensively and holding the line in the field.
Rotation
It’s the front of the rotation that will determine whether Minnesota’s starting pitching leads the way again in 2021 or not. Staff ace Kenta Maeda’s career season made a great first impression, though his .208 BABIP screams regression. In other words, it’s very unrealistic to expect another 5-WAR equivalent season from Maeda. He could easily push 3 WAR though, as his exit velocity and hard hit rate have been improving for a couple years now. Projecting Michael Pineda is a bit more difficult, namely because his durability is in question. But if he avoids significant time on the IL, you better believe Pineda is good enough for a mid-4.00s FIP and 2+ WAR.
For my money, the success of their rotation hinges on Jose Berrios. The Twins starter has matured into a durable and reliable arm who was progressing nicely until a minor speed bump in 2020. Berrios’ exit velocity and hard hit rate were stable until spiking last year – something that could have been a side effect of relying more on his changeup versus fastball in the shortened season. Regardless, he threw harder last year than in any of his prior campaigns. That leads me to believe that Jose is poised to produce more along the lines of his banner 2018 & 2019 seasons after a real Spring Training.
The Missing Links
Minnesota created a pair of holes by letting Rich Hill and Jake Odorizzi find opportunities elsewhere in free agency. One of those were filled after hooking up with the ageless wonder JA Happ. The durable 38-year-old slides into the back end of the rotation and should deliver a modest 1.5-WAR season. That’s not bad at all for a #4 guy with three very capable starters ahead of him.
Happ was poised to join forces in the bottom of the rotation with the up-and-coming Randy Dobnak. The 26-year-old rookie-ish righty has looked very good in his brief career, receiving plenty of buzz heading into the postseason. Dobnak’s sinker/slider combo helps keep the ball in the yard – which is important because he can’t rely on strikeouts to bail him out. But Minnesota’s acquisition of free agent Matt Shoemaker may bump Randy from the rotation in 2021. Take that with a grain of salt though, because Shoemaker has suffering devastating injuries seemingly every year since 2016.
There is good news, however. Matt’s pitch velocities ticked up in a short 6-start season with Toronto. Assuming that his 8 home runs were a product of such a small sample, any reversion back toward his career average should generate about a 1-WAR season. That is, of course, wholly dependent on Shoemakers’s health. Given the questions about health, I still expect the Twins rotation to take a step back from last year and still be firmly above average.
Bullpen
Former division foe Alex Colome comes to the Twins after a 12-save season with the White Sox. Colome and his suddenly-nasty cutter fit nicely into the closer slot vacated by Sergio Romo. However, Alex’s recent BABIPs – .215 in 2019, .200 in 2020 – are well below his career baseline. So you have to ask whether Colome is going to wave his magic wand once again or revert back to being a high-3.00s FIP guy. I’m more in the mindset of the latter. On the flip side, setup man/co-closer Taylor Rogers took his lumps with a .400 BABIP last year. But his underlying metrics of a 6.00 K/BB ratio and stable pitch velocities point toward a very good 1+ WAR season.
Honestly, I’ve been conflicted on exactly how to assess the large turnover in the Twins bullpen. Both Rogers and Tyler Duffey have been good enough to let Romo walk, but what about the holes left by Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, and Matt Wisler? These losses will make it hard to replicate last year’s overwhelming success out of the pen. However, under-the-radar middle relievers like Cody Stashak and Hansel Robles should play their roles effectively in this very good bullpen. This is still a very good relief unit, just not as spectacular as the 2020 version was.
WAGER: Over 88.5 Wins (bet 2/18/21)
What’s the best way to play the AL Central’s two-horse race? Minnesota is listed as the division’s runner up at a price to overtake Chicago ranging from +120 to +175. As much as I like the Twins to win this close race, my money is behind them to top 89 wins. Kansas City, Detroit, and – to a certain extent – Cleveland are all shaping up to be sub-.500 teams, offering plenty of opportunities for both the Twins and White Sox to push their win totals into the 90s. Minnesota’s solid pitching staff and excellent lineup should keep them marching back into the 2021 postseason and cashing this ticket.
Cleveland Indians 2021 Win Total: Open 81.5, Now 81.5
2020 Result: Over 32.5 (35-25)
The Indians’ grip on the AL Central slipped a bit in 2019 as the Minnesota juggernaut burst onto the scene. It led to a subsequent offseason rampant with trade rumors circling prized shortstop Francisco Lindor. Lindor was not dealt before the 2020 season, and Cleveland’s postseason hopes were kept alive. Naturally, this fueled plenty of speculation about where management was taking this once-formidable club. On the field, however, the Indians remained competitive and scratched their way back to the playoffs. But their postseason fate was sealed by the Yankees, who hammered the Tribe for 22 runs in a two-game sweep of the Wild Card series.
Cleveland’s calling card during the regular season was simply stifling their opponents’ scoring. Their MLB-best 209 runs against was a collective effort from this club. The most beneficial defense in the American League (27 runs saved) went hand-in-hand with arguably the best pitching staff from top to bottom. Staff ace and unanimous 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber was nearly impossible to crack in his third MLB season. Bieber posted an 8-1 record behind 122 strikeouts, 0.87 WHIP, and 2.07 FIP. Alongside the Tribe’s ace was a stingy rotation that sported AL-bests in WHIP and FIP. Bieber, Carrasco, Plesac, and company did not let batters get on base very often and when opponents did, it was extremely difficult to bring them around to score.
Cleveland’s pitching staff was absolutely stacked with starting pitching. The rotation was so good that shipping off Mike Clevinger to the Padres in midseason had almost unnoticeable effects. And when these starters turned the game over to the bullpen, opponents hardly got a break. Brad Hand led one of the majors’ best relief units with 16 saves, zero home runs, and an oppressive 1.37 FIP. Aside from some rough days by Cameron Hill and Nick Wittgren, the Cleveland bullpen was about as shutdown as they come.
Trending Negatively at the Plate
Was 2020 rock bottom for the Indians offense? Cleveland’s .140 ISO and .228/.317/.372 slash line seem to say so. Third baseman Jose Ramirez was one of the most productive hitters in the majors (17 HR, .607 SLG) but happened to be surrounded by an awful supporting cast. Even Frankie Lindor was not immune to uncharacteristically-low production at the plate. Although offense has not been their key to success for a while now, the Tribe still managed to generate enough runs in recent years to support their top-tier pitching. But things really started to fall off after their last AL Central title in 2018. Improved pitching from the Twins and White Sox play a role in this drop-off, though the lion’s share of blame goes to management’s failure to reload with quality hitters.
Cleveland Indians Offense, 2014 – 2020
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wRC+ | 86 | 94 | 104 | 105 | 100 | 97 | 98 |
| OPS | .689 | .756 | .766 | .788 | .759 | .725 | .706 |
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 75 – 79
Cleveland’s role has now shifted from contender to spoiler in the competitive 2021 AL Central. Since losing the 2016 World Series by just one run, the Indians won two more division titles and finished second in the past two seasons. But this team has been trending downward since, and the rise of Chicago and Minnesota essentially forced them to spin off their star players for role players and prospects. Despite the skepticism in the fan base that ownership needed to do this, clearly an Indians rebuild is the new reality.
Position Players
Make no doubt about it – face of the franchise and All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor will be missed. At the same time, Cleveland’s notable return from the Mets is a pair of game-ready major leaguers. Middle infielders Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez will take over for Lindor and add depth behind second baseman Caesar Hernandez. The Indians’ defense retains its strength up the middle with Hernandez, Rosario, and Gimenez, but their offensive contributions won’t hold a candle to Lindor’s.
For what it’s worth, Carlos Marcano made an interesting case for Franmil Reyes as the Best American League DH. That’s an interesting perspective, especially with Nelson Cruz in the same division. Franmil’s most notable season in 2019 featured 37 bombs and .512 slugging. But his 2020 .275/.344/.450 season poses a few questions. Can Reyes sustain a .270+ average and smash 30+ homers? Perhaps. In just 2-1/2 seasons, he’s shown that he can do both. But his BABIP exceeded .345 in the two seasons in which he hit for high average. So I think a realistic mark for the Cleveland DH is somewhere above .250 with plenty of long balls. And this club desperately needs Franmil to produce since third baseman Jose Ramirez is this infield’s only true offensive threat.
No Angels in This Outfield
Unfortunately, Cleveland’s outfield has been an offensive wasteland since Michael Brantley left. This unit’s 53 wRC+ last season is on the list of all-time duds. Well, the outfield received a significant shot in the arm from Twins free agent Eddie Rosario. Eddie pared down his strikeouts and added power to his repertoire in 2017, contributing heavily to the Bomba Squad’s recent proliferation. Rosario’s one-year deal helps Cleveland plug the “good-hitting corner outfielder” hole without sacrificing anything on defense.
As for the other two outfield spots, well, things look much less bright. In Cleveland’s case, too many options are a bad thing. Center field mostly belongs to an excellent-fielding Oscar Mercado who really struggled at the plate last season. His -11 wRC+ (.128/.174/.174) “helped” the Indians’ achieve their paltry run production. Great defense aside, Mercado must regain his 2019 offensive form and hit at least .225 for manager Terry Francona to keep him on the field.
We should have a better idea of who will play right field as Spring Training progresses. Though in the bigger scheme of things, the pieces that could fit this spot are fairly interchangeable. Whether it be Jordan Luplow, Jake Bauers, or rookie Daniel Johnson, right field will not be filled by a potent bat. In fact, this spot in the lineup should be platooned to get every last drop out of it. I’ll go so far to say that getting 85 wRC+ out of right field will be a huge win for Cleveland. Put all the offseason comings and goings together, and this Indians lineup should continue last season’s great defense and offensive woes.
Rotation
It’s quite obvious to say that trading Mike Clevinger last summer then Carlos Carrasco in the offseason will impact the Indians rotation. But this team still has a stacked young crop of starters headlined by reigning Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. Bieber is expected to turn in another 5+ WAR season in the 3.00-ish FIP range. No problem there. As for the #2 & #3 slots, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale will need to build on their two seasons of MLB experience rather quickly.
Both have had mixed success between the 2019 & 2020 seasons, making this third year a turning point for them. The bad thing is that my trusted projections have Plesac reverting back towards his so-so rookie campaign, and Civale slipping that way too. However, Zach piqued my interest by increasing his dependence on a nasty slider – a pitch that generated a 42.7% swinging strike rate last season. And the emergence of a second primary pitch is the type of development I like to see from younger arms to support a case for improvement. So put me in the camp that sees a bright future for Plesac, starting in 2021. Sure, that .224 BABIP last year begs for regression but a low-4.00s FIP is not out of the question.
From there on down, the Indians rotation will be challenged by a lack of depth. All indications show that prospects Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen will get their opportunities to start plenty of games. McKenzie has the stuff to be a top-notch pitcher, but the big question is whether the 6’5″, 165-pounder can handle the wear-and-tear of a 20+ start season. With Allen, the issue is less about durability and more about effectiveness. After 38.1 innings of 5.00+ FIP work the past two seasons, I’m not sure he finishes the year in the rotation. Unfortunately, the recent losses will hinder the Indians rotation over 162 games. Despite having a true ace in Shane Bieber, this group looks about half as good as the 2020 version – league-average at best.
Bullpen
After losing shutdown closer Brad Hand to the Nats, the Indians will plug 25-year-old James Karinchak into his role. The strikeout machine relies exclusively on a fastball-curve combo that racked up 53 Ks in 27 innings of work in 2020. Despite having a walk problem, he has done well in avoiding punishment by the long ball. After watching Karinchak’s stuff and seeing his underlying metrics, I can see why he’s projected to fill out a full season FIP in the low 3.00s. Get used his exaggerated delivery, folks, because this kid has a bright future ahead of him.
Karinchak will head up a relief unit that will almost certainly take a step back from a masterful 2020 season. However, they should still be dependable and anything but bad with Nick Wittgren and fireballer Emmanuel Clase as setup men. Wittgren’s weakness since joining the Indians has been home runs, which was oddly not an issue in Miami. Clase, on the other hand, used his velocity to induce ground balls to avoid the long ball bugaboo as a rookie in Texas. In front of them are middle relievers like Phil Eaton and Cal Quantrill, who stand to eat plenty of innings while trying to keep their underperforming offense in the game. This isn’t a big-name bullpen like the Yankees, but Francona and his staff know how to turn this modest amount of talent into a rock solid unit.
Chicago White Sox 2021 Win Total: Open 91.5, Now 91.5
2020 Win Total: Over 31.5 (35-25)
Chicago’s rebuild looks pretty legit. And it didn’t happen overnight. The White Sox front office grinded for nearly five years in putting this playoff team together. And in 2020 it all paid off, to a degree. Reaching the postseason – even if it required an expanded playoff field – was a significant milestone for this club. Naturally, I faded them with just days before the season started on the Wager Rager podcast and paid the price. Shame on me and props to the White Sox.
General manager Rick Hahn’s path back to the postseason – and a winning record, for that matter – has been a winding one. In fact, there aren’t many guys left on the roster from his first few years in the front office. But those who have remained proved to be instrumental in their recent surge. First baseman Jose Abreu’s White Sox tenure has spanned seven very impressive seasons. Abreu’s mind-blowing 2014 rookie year (36 HR, .264 ISO, .317/.383/.581) finally met its match with his MVP-winning 2020 season. He smashed 19 home runs, drove in 60 – in 60 games, mind you – while hanging a .300 ISO and slugging .617. He and fellow White Sox lifer Tim Anderson churned through the stacked lineup with their .300+ batting averages.
Built from a Clean Slate
Zach Kram wrote an excellent feature at The Ringer last March that broke down every step management took to build this winning club. I cannot do this piece justice, so make sure to spend 20 minutes and read Kram’s article if you are into how to build an MLB roster. Step zero was reshaping the roster after significant house cleaning. Abreu and Anderson were retained, forming a small nucleus. Then internal prospects Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal – who were part of the organization for their entire careers – were joined by six more “external prospects” brought in via trades:
Six of the 13 fit this group, which comprises players traded to Chicago when they were still prospects: infielder Yoán Moncada, outfielder Eloy Jiménez, and starting pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Michal Kopech, and Dylan Cease.
The Secret to the Chicago White Sox’s Rebuild – Zach Kram, theringer.com – March 10, 2020
As for their budding stars’ 2020 seasons, Luis Robert provided instant excitement for the South Siders. The rookie center fielder’s paid instant dividends in the field, helping to improve a defense that struggled in recent years. Likewise, Yoan Moncada settled in at third base and contributed to Chicago’s run-saving defense. Eloy Jimenez came strong at the plate, hitting 14 bombs and driving in 41 runs with aggression.
On a disappointing note, Nick Madrigal was lost to a shoulder injury after posting a .340 average in 29 games. Michael Kopech opted out of the season, but rotation mate Lucas Giolito picked up a lot of slack with 97 strikeouts and a 1.04 WHIP. Unfortunately for the White Sox, not all of their acquired arms made positive strides in 2020. Both Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease combined to give up 21 home runs in just 84.2 innings.
Sprinkle In Some Veterans
Five of the 13 fit this final category: players who were already established big leaguers when they joined via free agency or trade. Catcher Yasmani Grandal, first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnación, and starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Gio González signed with the club this winter, while outfielder Nomar Mazara came to Chicago in a trade for 2018 second-round pick Steele Walker.
The Secret to the Chicago White Sox’s Rebuild – Zach Kram, theringer.com – March 10, 2020
One of the best defensive catchers in the league, Yasmani Grandal was an immediate upgrade behind the plate. Gio Gonzalez may have been a bust, but Dallas Keuchel’s impact on the rotation was tremendous. Keuchel’s first year with the White Sox paid off in spades, creating a potent 1-2 punch with Lucas Giolito. As for Mazara and Encarnacion, well, they didn’t flop quite as hard as Gonzalez but their contributions were minimal. Not every move worked to perfection, though it’s tough to argue that the culmination of these deals was unsuccessful.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 86 – 91
A 35-25 record just didn’t cut it for former ChiSox manager Rick Renteria. He got the boot shortly after the season ended. Then just days later, in comes Tony La Russa. Wait, you mean 76-year old Hall of Famer Tony La Russa? Yep, that’s the one. He took the reins in November fresh off of his second career DUI. To management’s credit, the forged ahead with what appears to be a highly-successful “sprinkle in some veterans” phase – improving a team that was already on the rise.
Rotation
Chicago’s offseason started off hot with a trade of starter Dane Dunning and rookie pitcher Avery Weems to the Rangers for Lance Lynn. The move adds another established arm to the top of the rotation with Giolito and Keuchel. Unfortunately, it spun off a younger pitcher with good upside for a guy with just one year left under contract. But when looking at the 2021 season in a bubble, Lance Lynn should be a one-win upgrade over Dunning. This trio as combined could push 10 WAR if they stay healthy.
Where things really get interesting is at the bottom of the rotation. Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease are young starters with a huge opportunity to break through in the 2021 season. Cease’s path to a successful career is straightforward – cut the walks and avoid getting shelled on a regular basis. Kopech, on the other hand, is a lesser known quantity. He opted out of the 2020 season after Tommy John surgery sidelined him way too early in his 2018 debut. A couple of my most respected opinions project these two young starters’ to push 3 WAR together. This would be a very achievable improvement over last year’s bottom spots and the rotation as a whole.
Bullpen
Shortly after Hahn beefed up the rotation with Lance Lynn, he bolstered their bullpen by adding former A’s closer Liam Hendriks. “Free agency’s best reliever” inked a juicy four-year, $54 million deal to head up Chicago’s relief unit. Hendriks replaces former closer Alex Colome, who was pretty damn good himself last year. But in the coming years, Liam is poised to deliver more value than Colome would. My minor downgrade of the White Sox pen is based on some regression from their banner 2020 season. On the slip side, this upgrade at the closer position nearly balances out that deduction.
Along with Hendriks, veterans Evan Marshall and Jace Fry should help stabilize a Chicago bullpen that will feature several key prospects. Chicago’s first round pick of 2020, Garrett Crochet should get reps alongside promising but inexperienced pitchers Codi Heuer and Matt Foster. And why shouldn’t they? These three homegrown talents were outstanding in their combined 52.1 innings last season. Sure, my expectations are tempered over the course of a full 162 games but their 2021 seasons still looks bright. Expect another big year from this bullpen.
Position Players
So where do I start with projecting one of 2020’s most productive offenses? American League MVP Jose Abreu put up the full-season equivalent of a 7-WAR season via a 166 wRC+. Well, that’s not going to happen again this year. Sure he’ll hit .280 and smash 30+ homers, though that’s a far cry from last season’s insane production. Similarly, shortstop Tim Anderson is primed to take a step back after another stellar year. Anderson’s value in the field swings wildly from season to season, making him tough to gauge from a defensive standpoint. But at the plate he’s been money – crushing the .300 threshold the past two seasons despite an unwavering 20%+ strikeout rate. The issue with projecting Tim too strongly is his .399 and .383 BABIPs in the past two seasons. I’ll give him this much – Anderson earns a baseline BABIP much higher than the average player, just not that high.
Chicago’s 2016 trade with Washington brought Giolito, Dunning, and Reynaldo Lopez to the South Side in exchange for dynamic outfielder Adam Eaton. Now the 32-year old is back with the Sox on a 1-year free agent deal. Assuming Eaton can stay on the field most of the season, him replacing Nomar Mazara could yield Chicago another win. This is a net positive, just one that sacrifices defense for offense. Mazara played some of the best defense of his life in 2020 and will be next to impossible for Eaton to duplicate. He gets the benefit of an excellent defender in center to help bail him out, though I have to wonder if Luis Robert can mask the aging fielder’s shortcomings.
Losing James McCann as Yasmani Grandal’s backup behind the plate hurts the White Sox as well. These two excellent defenders effectively tag-teamed the position last year, so McCann’s departure leaves a considerable hole behind. Enter 26-year-old Zack Collins, who has caught just 99.1 innings in his young MLB career. Collins strikes out a lot and will have to grow into the position on the fly. At least he’s been learning from one of the best catchers in the game. The White Sox lineup should continue to be one of the better units in the league in terms of both offense and defense, just not as spectacular as in 2020. I will be especially interested in watching Chicago and Minnesota battle it out for the 2021 AL Central.
Kansas City Royals 2021 Win Total: Open 72.5, Now 72.5
2020 Result: Over 25 (26-34)
A 9-game gap between the Kansas City Royals and AL Central runner-ups Cleveland and Chicago marked a clear line between contenders and also-rans. Although KC finished 2 games above Detroit, they held the distinction as the only team in the division to have a losing record against the NL Central (9-11). Their below-average offense struggled like Cleveland’s, though the pitching staff was respectable enough to nudge this club over their win total. As FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski simply said: “The Royals are not a dreadful team.”
In fact, the Royals put the brakes on a precipitous decline that has plagued them since their 2015 World Series Championship season. But the jury is still out for me whether the 2020 season indicates a Royals turnaround in progress. Reading the tea leaves is a necessary part of handicapping season futures and establishing baseline metrics entering the upcoming season. Kansas City’s trajectory depends in part on interpreting last year’s mixed signals:
- Whit Merrifield generated about 2/3rds of his offensive production in the first half of the season.
- Slugger Jorge Soler crashed back down to earth after 2019’s 48 home run campaign.
- Catcher Salvador Perez returned from Tommy John surgery to hit 11 homers and put up a career-best .333/.353/.633 slash line.
- The bullpen delivered one of their better seasons since 2016, bouncing back from a brutal two-year stretch.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 70 – 74
So where do the Royals go after an encouraging 2020 season? General manager Dayton Moore doubled down on K.C.’s homegrown talent, staying committed to guys like Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Danny Duffy, and Greg Holland. This doesn’t mean that the club stood pat, waiting for another sub-.500 season to wrap up. Moore signed a handful of veterans like Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi, and Mike Minor to shake things up. These moves leave one big question yet to be answered – were they enough to push the Royals into the postseason?
Position Players
AL Central foe Cleveland’s loss is K.C.’s gain as free agent first baseman Carlos Santana landed with the Royals. Santana’s patient approach at the plate should help him rebound from a poor 2020 (.199/.349/.350). But is his high walk rate and good power enough to impact an unimpressive offense good for just 91 wRC+? Santana will anchor an infield that truly needs a shot in the arm, even if the Royals won’t experience the 2019 version of him. The first base position was a revolving door last season, so at minimum, Carlos will provide some stability there. As for DH Jorge Soler and catcher Salvador Perez, expect both of them to converge back towards expectation. That likely means a 30-homer, .245 average for Soler, and a more realistic .260-ish season with power for Perez.
Moore’s offseason infusions should push Hunter Dozier out of the outfield and back to third base. That’s a tough blow for Ryan O’Hearn, who now becomes the odd man. All signs point to Nicky Lopez and Adalberto Mondesi manning the middle infield. But all of this shuffling won’t completely hide Dozier’s defensive woes, as the 29-year-old has struggled both in the outfield and at third base throughout his career. Fortunately, the light-hitting Lopez and Mondesi are developing into a formidable defensive pair that is propped up this defense. There is some hope that Santana’s experienced plate approach will rub off on shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, whose lifetime 29.7% strikeout rate is a massive liability. That’s the sort of thing that won’t get resolved in one season, so expect another low-output offensive year from Adalberto.
A Changing of the Guard
This year’s outfield will look very strange without 14-year Royal Alex Gordon in left field. Even though Gordon tailed off sharply after the 2015 World Series Championship season, he was still such a beloved player to this franchise. His farewell was met with tons of appreciation, then he was replaced by Boston’s Andrew Benintendi. K.C. acquired him through a three-team trade that sent an expendable Franchy Cordero back to the Red Sox and valued prospect Khalil Lee to the Mets. A rib cage injury made 2020 a lost season for Benintendi and it’s doubtful he gets back to peak form. The club is cautiously optimistic that 26-year-old Benintendi will provide some upside over the retired Gordon – and they’re not wrong.
Fellow newcomer, centerfielder Michael Taylor gives the outfield a much needed defensive boost. He replaces Bubba Starling, who was a sub-par fielder that did not contribute much at the plate. Sure, Taylor may be a low-power contact hitter with speed, but his defensive acumen will serve the Royals outfield well. At minimum, it offsets some of the team’s fielding deficiencies. Alongside these two additions, right fielder Whit Merrifield is poised to deliver another strong season as the team’s best position player. He plays the corner outfield spot quite well and should not have a problem putting up another .280+, 90-run season at the plate. All in all, the K.C. lineup isn’t going to blow anyone’s doors off.
Rotation
Veteran starting pitcher Mike Minor adds key experience and stability to K.C.’s rotation. Minor returns to the Royals after his brief stint here in 2017 – the only season where he was purely used as a reliever. Now on the back half of his career, the Royals want nothing more than for the 33-year-old to regain that form after a tough 2020 season in the AL West. Assuming Mike sheds 2020’s uncharacteristically-high 1.75 HR/9, his durability and steady mid-4.00s FIP should pay dividends for a group that needed another reliable arm to round them out. But my hopes are tempered, as Minor’s velocities have been steadily dropping since his previous time in Kansas City.
However, it’s Royals lifer Danny Duffy who could end up as the staff ace. Entering his eleventh season in the bigs, the K.C. lefty has also steadily improved from his 3.46-FIP 2017 campaign. Like Minor, Duffy also yielded more homers (1.60 HR/9) last season and experienced a small decline in velocities. And that’s generally to be expected. Both have over 1,100 innings under their belts, yet are still crafty enough to contribute close to 5 WAR this season.
K.C.’s Next Wave
While Duffy and Minor are essentially known quantities at this point, the upside with this rotation lies with their young arms. Exhibit A is Brad Keller. While I’m concerned with his steady drop in fastball velocity, Keller’s newfound pitch diversification should help his effectiveness. We saw Brad integrate his slider more into his pitching approach last season with significant success later in the count. Coupled with an effective sinker, Keller achieved a 2.47 ERA/3.43 FIP mark in 9 starts. That nearly one point discrepancy could be linked back to a .233 BABIP and 5.1% HR/FB rate. So you certainly have to expect a decent amount of reversion from Keller statistically. Still, he’s projected to finish the season close to 2 WAR. I’ll take the over on that one though.
Behind the Duffy-Keller-Minor trifecta is a pair of very interesting rookies who just made their rookie debuts. Although he needs a third pitch in his arsenal, Brady Singer notched a very respectable 4.06 FIP season with just a fastball and a slider. But the organization knows that Singer must develop his changeup this spring and implement it before he can grow as a starter.
Kris Bubic’s 1-6 rookie season was not as strong as Singer’s, though he’s already implemented a three-pitch repertoire. In fact, the changeup should continue to be this kid’s wipeout pitch throughout this critical second season. Both Singer and Bubic offer great upside to the Royals as contact pitchers with good command. And even if they don’t take huge steps forward in 2021, I still expect a mid-4.00s FIP and a combined 3-4 WAR. I can see this rotation being noticeably improved this season, even if they still lack a dominant ace.
Bullpen
K.C.’s closer-by-committee approach paid off in spades last season, notching an MLB third-highest 19 saves. This unit also ranked in the top third in terms of ERA and FIP due to good strikeout numbers and home run suppression. Veteran reliever Greg Holland had one of his best seasons since his original stint with the club, racking up 6 saves. But part of the reason why I expect the bullpen to backslide is epitomized by guys like Holland. His 2.52 FIP was tops in five seasons, partially due to a big bump in ground ball rate and drop in walks. Unfortunately, those aspects should snap him back to the low-4.00s FIP range where his compatriots will likely be.
Accompanying Holland on the front end are Josh Staumont, Scott Barlow, and Jesse Hahn. This corps of solid setup men should continue to get some chances to close out games for manager Ned Yost. They’re high-strikeout/high-walk relievers that don’t give up the long ball. Below them, however, things get a bit more dicier. The Royals bullpen lacks depth – a big reason why I am down on them this season. Wade Davis is well past his World Series form, and guys like Kyle Zimmer and Jakob Junis won’t move the needle. There’s just not enough for the Royals to take a big step forward – or backward, for that matter – as a whole this season. Are they on a trajectory to overtake Cleveland in the AL Central? Maybe in 2022, I say.
Detroit Tigers 2021 Win Total: Open 68.5, Now 68.5
2020 Result: Over 22 (23-35)
The Tigers were caught in a talent development conundrum last season. Detroit is undergoing a youth movement – aside from 37-year old Miguel Cabrera – that, unfortunately, has much rougher edges than other young teams like San Diego. A lack of minor league baseball hurt every club in 2020, and in the Tigers’ case it may have rushed the progression of their up-and-coming starting pitchers. Even so, this team squeaked by its win total by feasting on the mediocre NL Central. Detroit’s 11-7 interleague record spared them from the worst record in the majors though it could not keep them out of the division cellar.
Manager Ron Gardenhire’s lineups featured veterans Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop, and a bunch of players with no more than a couple years of MLB experience. When the dust settled, the Tigers finished with a mid-pack offense and fielding in most respects. And from a betting perspective, their performance against lefties (142 wRC+) made Detroit team total overs ripe for the picking on those days. In fact, this split was second in the majors only to the White Sox. Unfortunately, this club squared off against righties more than 80% of the time.
Developing Detroit’s Rotation of the Future
So if the Tigers offense held its own, how did this team finish twelve games under .500? The rotation put the bullpen into a lot of long relief situations by working the fewest innings in the majors. Outside of the strong seasons turned in by Jose Cisnero, Bryan Garcia, and former starter Daniel Norris, this relief unit generated too much contact without the strikeouts to balance things out. Detroit’s bullpen could have fared better with a little help from their starters, but this entire staff was essentially a work in progress.
Simply said, Detroit’s starting pitchers were doomed by the long ball. Matthew Boyd and Michael Fulmer yielded 2.35 HR/9, “helping” this group achieve a league-worst ERA and FIP. Fulmer’s rebound season after suffering a major elbow injury was nothing short of a bust. Boyd’s home run and walk rates continued to rise, creating a dangerous combination for opponents’ run creation. On the contrary, Spencer Turnbull was very good in his sophomore season. He issued too many walks, but created ground ball contact and avoided home runs on his way to a sub-4.00 ERA and FIP.
General manager Al Avila, along with the rest of the Tigers faithful, was chomping at the bit to see the future of this organization take the mound. 2018 #1 overall pick Casey Mize and fellow acclaimed pitching prospect Tarik Skubal got their big league call-ups in mid August. It was anything but a Cinderella story in Chicago for these 23-year olds, or the rest of the season for that matter. Each rookie gave up 7 bombs in their 7 starts and finished with 6.00+ ERAs. But all is far from lost with these two, who bypassed AAA last year in lieu of working at the alternate site. This jump turned out to be a tough trial by fire – one that gave these guys some important big league reps in their young careers.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 64 – 69
General manager Al Avila has done his best to field a competitive team during a lengthy rebuild. Although the seasons of Verlander and Scherzer are well in the rear view mirror, the promising days of Mize and Skubal are on the horizon. They’re not quite ready to fully take the reins, but the Tigers future is bright – especially if last year’s #1 overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson can accelerate through the minors. In the meantime, this club will do their best to plug the gaps and field a competitive team.
Rotation
Despite being stacked with starting pitching prospects, the Tigers will likely begin the season with them in AAA. Hell, there may be more excitement building for the Toledo Mud Hens than the big league team come Opening Day. The Detroit front office signaled that their young arms of Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize will start the season in Toledo when they signed veteran placeholders Jose Urena and Julio Teheran. Naturally, both of them absolutely struggled last year. And there’s not much indicating that they’re going to turn their careers around either. So the waiting game will likely continue for Tigers fans as their young guns work on their splitters in Spring Training.
But the Tigers need a rotation now. While the bottom slots are in flux for the Opening Day roster, the Boyd-Turnbull-Fulmer trio should be respectable. Will Matthew Boyd and Michael Fulmer continue to serve up batting practice-level home runs? I doubt it. In fact, I think Boyd will earn his keep as the staff ace, even if his realistic benchmark is a mid-4.00s FIP. Matthew’s pitch velocities are fairly stable, though him being a fly ball pitcher with a growing tendency to give up homers will continue to hold him back. Chalk up a 2-3 WAR season for Boyd if he reverts back to around 15% HR/FB this season.
Michael Fulmer is in a similar position as Boyd. His return to the mound after a missed 2019 season was unceremoniously greeted with 8 home runs in 27.2 innings. Assuming that settles down to a modest level, Fulmer should dip below 5.00 FIP and net the Tigers around 1.5 WAR. That’s a far cry from his promising first two MLB seasons of 3+ WAR each. Granted, the unconventional 2020 season wasn’t the best environment to return from Tommy John surgery. But Fulmer can offer his rotation 20+ starts and limp this season along while the prospects develop. Maybe Spencer Turnbull will turn into the high-ground ball, low-home run pitcher that Fulmer promised to be before injury. And in the meantime, the future of this rotation is still under development – with Turnbull being a significant part of it depending on how 2021 goes.
Lineup
Detroit made several impactful changes to their lineup in addition to re-signing second baseman Jonathan Schoop. Although he was unable to continue his spectacular production of 2016 and 2017 in Baltimore, Schoop has been nothing short of solid for the Tigers. The 29-year-old is solid on defense and should produce another .260+, 20+ HR type of season. But its the crop of breakout players that have most people’s attention. Young infielder Willi Castro led the way, slashing .349/.381/.550 in part due to an insane .448 BABIP. In fact, Castro, Jeimer Candelario, and JaCoby Jones all finished the season with uncharacteristic BABIPs well above .350 – putting them in line for regression in 2021.
Detroit Tigers Offensive Regression Candidates (*2021 Projections)
| 2020 wRC+ | 2020 BABIP | 2021* wRC+ | 2021* BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candelario | 150 | .448 | 95 | .330 |
| W. Castro | 136 | .372 | 104 | .305 |
| Jones | 126 | .356 | 84 | .310 |
Avila may have recognized the high likelihood of these guys coming back down to earth after the small-sample 2020 season. This prompted a free agent signing spree to add known quantities in case the bottom really falls out from underneath these overachievers. As a result, nearly half of the projected Tigers lineup consists of newcomers:
- Outfielder Robbie Grossman (OAK)
- Catcher Wilson Ramos (NYM)
- Outfielder Nomar Mazara (CHW)
- First baseman Renato Nunez (BAL)
Fun fact: Robbie Grossman joins a lineup of three other switch hitters – Jeimer Candelario, Willi Castro, Niko Goodrum, and Victor Reyes. Grossman worked overtime on his swing in the previous offseason, yielding a .241/.344/.482 slash line and career-best 127 wRC+ in Oakland. Unfortunately, their new right fielder is more likely to deliver slightly above-average production in 2021 – a similar fate as Nunez after his career year as an Oriole. Ramos and Nunez, on the other hand, are more likely to be slightly below-average at the plate. Regardless, Wilson Ramos is both an offensive and a defensive upgrade over the departed Austin Romine. But here’s the bitter truth – I expect this lineup shuffle to result in similar offensive production and fielding as last year. At least preserving the status quo beats falling further behind.
Bullpen
Unfortunately, the promise that the Tigers rotation brings is not echoed in the bullpen. Headliners Bryan Garcia and Gregory Soto should take a couple steps back from their second seasons in the bigs. Garcia’s 0 homers in 21.2 innings and .257 BABIP point more towards a 5.00-FIP type of season ahead. Likewise, Soto probably cannot rely on another .269 BABIP year to bail him out from averaging over 5 walks per 9 innings. This gives me serious concerns with additional weight put on their shoulders to anchor this bullpen. Hell, even Jose Cisnero’s top-notch 2020 season carries the caveat of being well above expectation for walks and homers. So I’ll keep it short here – expect plenty of bumpy patches for Detroit’s thin and unassuming bullpen, as it could take the “crown” as the worst in the majors.
2021 AL Central Projected Standings
- Minnesota Twins (91-71)
- Chicago White Sox (89-73)
- Cleveland Indians (77-85)
- Kansas City Royals (72-92)
- Detroit Tigers (66-96)
Follow The BetCrushers Team!
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com to catch the remaining five division previews as they drop throughout March. Also, you can follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email notifications. Our morning handicaps will roll several times a week once the MLB regular season is up and running. Until then, best of luck!
