I mentioned a couple days back me reading and hearing about a situational handicapping angle involving teams returning from a series at Coors Field in Denver. This was of particular interest to me because I had booked a play on Philadelphia at the Mets for that evening. The Phillies made the trip from Colorado to New York and were short dogs at -102. They ended up losing that game 5-1, so my interest was piqued in regard to the idea of what I’ll call the Rocky Mountain Hangover.
After returning from a long trip yesterday evening, I looked into the 3 series in Colorado where the teams left to start another series elsewhere (a fourth is currently underway involving the Washington Nationals). All 3 teams – LA Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, & Philadelphia Phillies – began their next series with a loss! Maybe there is something to this after all.
The Dodgers were +102 dogs at St. Louis and fell 4-3. The Braves went home and lost to the Mets 6-3 as -135 favorites. And then my bet on the Phillies at the Mets went up in smoke 5-1. So will Washington be an auto-fade when they kick off a series at home against the Padres on Friday?
So I dug deeper by looking at 2018 results. There were 23 series played at Coors Field last year. Teams came in and went 14-9 in the series opener then left and started the next series elsewhere with a 12-11 record. This is as close to a .500 record as you can get with an odd number of games. Does it matter whether they’re going home or heading to another stadium? Not really. 6-6 record for those returning home and 6-5 for those continuing on a road trip. Within those results, a day of rest between the series didn’t matter. Teams were 2-3 if they had an extra day between leaving Denver and starting the next series. Again, nearly .500.
I could look at seasons prior to 2018, split the data down even further based on the quality of team, etc. For the time being, it appears that the 0-3 record of teams in their first game after leaving Coors Field is a small-sample anomaly. Based on this limited analysis, Washington isn’t necessarily an auto-fade on Friday when they return home. I won’t go as far to say that this myth has been busted, but also won’t forego handicapping these situations for such a shortcut.
Putting that small research project aside, my morning wagers fared poorly. Carrasco exited early due to injury and the Indians fell to the Marlins (who have successfully cashed some big money dog plays this season in between a lot of losses). The Mariners lost their third road game of the season against young arm Nick Margevicius. However, I was able to grab a +105 ticket that luckily cashed on the Cincinnati Reds and a live bet on Houston in the 3rd inning that covered the losses. While at a rest area in Virginia I saw the Reds line had moved 15 cents from a marginal -110 that morning into positive money territory.
I’ve modified my wagering schedule so far this season to prepare these articles, which unfortunately has led me to omit several plays that became good opportunities as lines moved through the day. This is an element of good handicapping and has been a part of my playbook for a few years. Identify sides that present value if the line were to move, then act on them when it happens. It’s also disingenuous to write an article naming my plays then coming in the next day to say I added some winners (especially with the potential to omit losers) like I have today.
The point being, betting is not be a static exercise. Handicapping should identify opportunities that may be present at the time but may also pop up when lines move through the day. The betting markets are based on the actions of people as they take positions on sides, totals, etc. It is difficult to watch line movements like a hawk when you have a full-time job or other obligations, but this is something that should be integrated into your repertoire to squeeze out even more advantage.
That being said, here’s a couple games out of a several that presents value:
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
This Reds team can be tough to get behind with an offense that has been sluggish and seemingly disoriented at times. Part of this is trying to integrate several new pieces into the lineup, who have produced in crucial situations but have been lackluster in others. Cincy throws veteran Tanner Roark on the mound this evening to keep some momentum going against Altanta. He has settled down in his last couple starts, only giving up 1 run in each of those outings against St. Louis and San Diego. There should be some concern with his fly ball ratio especially at Great American Ballpark, though he has not yielded a home run in his two starts at home against a pair of hard-hitting teams in Milwaukee and St. Louis.
Mike Soroka gets his second start of the season with a consistently-good lineup behind him. The 21-year old has very good command of his 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs. Duration may be an issue for him, putting some pressure on a middling bullpen. Cincy’s relievers have been very reliable so far this year, potentially giving the Reds the late-game advantage.
VALUE PLAY: Cincy as a +120 home dog
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
Tyson Ross gives the Tigers another shot at a big upset in Boston tonight. They’re fresh off of a doubleheader sweep as +160 & +180 dogs. Ross is not known as a strikeout pitcher but has been getting it done for Detroit with a 50% ground ball rate and a 4.33 xFIP. The downside is that his last 2 starts have been less impressive than the first 2. His counterpart, Eduardo Rodriguez, has given up at least 7 hits in each of his starts other than the game vs. Baltimore. He is a high-K guy with a filthy changeup that has the potential to befuddle the Tigers hitters.
Asking the Tigers to grab another large upset on the road is a big task, so there is caution in poking the sleeping bear again. But Boston is 1-4 in their last 5 home games and presents a volatile bullpen in case Rodriguez cannot go deep in the game. Detroit has won 4 of 5 and has scored at least 4 runs in all of those games. Their bullpen, and pitching overall for that matter, has been rock solid so far this season. The Sox have the firepower to come alive at any moment like they did against Tampa Bay over the weekend but this is a dog-or-pass situation if you ask me.
