0-3 is a bad day, but yesterday’s 0-3 was a downright low blow. The -3.02 units is not that big of a hit to the bankroll or a major change to the pace I need to meet my 2019 season goal (see yesterday’s article about pace). However, it can be a beating on the psyche if you let it. Somehow I still find myself up at 4:00 a.m. to break down today’s games and prepare myself for more abuse on the diamond. If I didn’t have several years of winning with the MLB, I could easily give up after 3 weeks.
The Phillies bet should have been a pass in retrospect, and that’s on me. I had read and heard some interesting information throughout the day about there being a tough transition leaving Colorado that would likely affect them on the following day heading back east and close to sea level in New York. Whether it was the Rocky Mountain hangover, a couple key injuries, or Steven Matz being the guy he’s supposed to be, it was a resounding loss to the Mets. But I’ve adjusted my betting schedule this year to prepare these articles so the bet was in early. File that angle away for other similar scenarios.
Angels fell to the Yankees in 14. Another game in hindsight that probably did not deserve any money (or attention, for that matter). Happ vs. Harvey was a matchup of washed up pitchers that ironically turned into a grindy 2-2 game that went to extras. Tough to lose an extra-inning game at home for the second day in a row.
And speaking of crappy pitchers, Zack Godley performed as expected. He gave up walks and hits left and right. But the writing on the wall when Pittsburgh left 5 on base in the first 2 innings alone before getting 4 across. Musgrove was pitching well and despite the Pirates having left 9 on base going into the 7th, a 4-1 lead looked solid with a very good bullpen ready to close it down. No need to relive the course of events that played out from there. Gut punch.
A big setback just means it will take a little longer to get back on pace. Only one thing to do: start with today…
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians
Carlos Carrasco regained the form Cleveland has been waiting for in Seattle last week, pitching 7 innings of shutout ball. His .524 BABIP tells you that he’s been unfortunate to a degree even though he struck out a dozen in 2 different games. The Tribe’s offense is back to full strength with Kipnis and Lindor, who have already made an impact to the team in their short time back. Cleveland scored 20 runs in the series against Atlanta and has the potential to keep the bats hot tonight.
Pablo Lopez has been decent for the Marlins, giving up no more than 4 runs in any of his outings. He likely won’t make it past the 5th inning so there will be some stress on their sub-par bullpen. As we all know, Miami has a very weak lineup that should have trouble against Carrasco if he has truly found his game again. Despite the high level of confidence in Cleveland in this one, laying -230 is a non-starter. I’ll cut the price in half with the run line.
WAGER: Indians RL -115
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
A couple of young arms meet in San Diego tonight as the Mariners bring their 11-2 road record down the coast. Erik Swanson gets the ball for the AL West leaders. He has a limited body of work this season, but was very respectable in his first start against Cleveland. It appears that his main weakness may be fly balls though the Padres may not be the best team to exploit it. He should get support from a powerful lineup that just put up 28 runs in a 4-game series against the Angels.
22-year old Nick Margevicius rattled off 3 good starts of only 1 run in each game before a bumpy outing against Colorado in which he gave up 5 runs. The Padres have struggled to score this season, especially of late. Before plating 4 against the Reds on Sunday, they did not score more than 2 runs in any of the previous 5 games. They typically play their competition close so the bullpens may make the difference. Seattle’s relievers are not too bad and San Diego’s are quite good. This one likely depends on whether the M’s can get to Margevicius early. They are hitting .289 against lefties and have been raking this season, so this is the scenario I am backing tonight.
