Previous Week Plays – 0-3
Season Record – 11-9
Week 5 Recap:
Well, we said we weren’t fans of the slate in week five and apparently it was with good reason for us as we took a goose egg going 0-3 with our posted plays. At halftime of the early games we were feeling great as the Panthers already had 20 points which seemed well en route to going over their team total of 26.5. Additionally, the Steelers and Chiefs were holding up their end of the bargain of the teaser we had in play. Unfortunately, they played the second half, and the Panthers took the air out of the ball scoring a meager field goal and taking a knee at the end of the game. It hurts knowing they racked up nearly 500 yards and 8 yards per play and didn’t get over. The Chiefs were thoroughly whipped by the Raiders in the second part of the game which killed our teaser, despite the Steelers getting their end done. We took a shot because we felt we had to with the Colts and even though it was a somewhat close game, the Browns were clearly the correct side and won the game. Our daily fantasy bailed us out in terms of profit for the weekend, but for the sake of our weekly plays, all that can be said is, “puke”.
Week 6 Picks:
The BetCrushers have been handicapping games for nearly two decades unofficially and have seen just about everything imaginable over that time. It’s not a huge stretch to say that this is one of the least appealing weekends in terms of both game quality and betting opportunities that we can recall in recent memory. If you’re evaluating across the slate the biggest opportunity appears to be with teasers as there are seven games you could potentially tease favorites down under the key number of three. We’re not completely sold on most of the teams though, as this weekend has the feeling of a lot of favorites being parlay busters. We went light this week with a team total, a play on a pick’em game, and stayed disciplined with just one teaser play.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
vs. 
Houston Texans (1-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-0)
Sunday October 18th
1:00pm
CBS
Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Tennessee Titans -3 (-120)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
Similarities are abound as two teams who are very familiar with each other square off in Nashville in an AFC South tilt. The Texans are fresh off their first win of the season without the departed Bill O’ Brien, while the Titans come off an impressive thrashing of the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills. Did Houston find a second wind under new leadership, or will the Titans keep their undefeated season going for another week?
Houston finally got in the win column and maybe more importantly got some of their offensive mojo back last Sunday. Deshaun Watson was able to utilize his new weapons, mainly Brandin Cooks and their fans were treated to a sample of what they thought this offense could be. It’s probably good to temper expectations when they play the Titans this weekend. This Titan defense is not quite as stout as it’s been the past handful of years, but they proved against the Bills that they are still a very capable group. David Johnson has underwhelmed and is unlikely to generate much with the return of Titans DT Jeffery Simmons which will put a lot of pressure on Deshaun Watson and the passing game. That’s not an impossible task for Watson to overcome, but this will require the Texans to hit big plays. It’s tough to imagine them being able to sustain offense consistently throughout this game. The question here is can Watson get or make the time to get the ball deep to his speedy wideouts? Jadeveon Clowney is questionable to go, but his ability to generate pressure against his old team is important.
On the other side of the ball the Titans were sharp and precise throwing the football in their return, and got timely runs when needed. Derrick Henry hasn’t dominated yet this season as he did a year ago, but this is an opportunity for him to really get going. The Texans clearly miss defensive tackle D.J. Reader and they have really had trouble slowing down running backs, and specifically power running backs. With Darrynton Evans now on IR this could be a game with Henry getting 20+ carries and churning out 5 and 6 yards per tote. The Titans look to welcome back Corey Davis and Adam Humprhies from their COVID-19 list which should only help Ryan Tannehill who has played well when called upon. Johnnu Smith also has a favorable matchup as the Texans have had trouble defending the middle of the field. The blueprint for Tennessee here is control the line of scrimmage and muscle their way to victory.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Titans are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games
Laying points in a divisional game on short rest after a big win has to be concerned at least a little bit risky. The reality of this is, these two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum in the league’s hierarchy. We have the Titans closer to six point favorites so getting them at the key number of three is more than enough value for us. On paper this seems like it’ll be a high scoring shootout, but don’t be surprised if it’s a little more of a body-shot punching dual. Simply put though, The Titans are a far superior team and should be able to get the victory and the cover.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans -3
Titans 26, Texans 20
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (4-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0)
Sunday October 18th
1:00pm
CBS
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-120)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
The Sporting News ranked the Browns and Steelers as the number one rivalry in the NFL in 2019. While it’s true these teams don’t care for each other (see Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph), it can’t really be considered a rivalry when one team has owned the other as much as the Steelers have dominated the Browns. Things appear a little different this year though as the Browns are flying high and finally getting great play out of the talented pieces of their roster. If you like physical play, this should be a good one.
Baker Mayfield had a really nice day against a very good Indianapolis Colts defense en route to a win that although close, was never really in jeopardy for the Browns. When you really look at that game, it was the strength of the Cleveland offensive line that allowed Mayfield the time to make the throws needed. This line has an even tougher test this weekend against the Steelers front. Kareem Hunt is not going to find a lot of running room even behind this Cleveland O-line that is playing really well. The Browns need to score points in this game, and in order to do so, will need to throw the ball. The Steelers weakness defensively is on the corner and Mayfield and his receivers need to exploit that. Can this offensive line stand up to the fierce Steelers pass rush of T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree enough to give Mayfield time to throw? For the first time this season we may see some critical mistakes from Baker Mayfield, which will be a key for the Steelers. If you happen to like the dirty part of football, watch this battle in the trenches as you may not find a better one all season long.
The Steelers offense has quietly played well in their fast start to the season, making one wonder what this team could have done last year with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger? He’s been mixing things up each week and finding the open and hot receiver when the right matchup presents itself. (See Chase Claypool in week five). The Steelers offense has a substantial advantage over the Browns defense with the exception of Myles Garrett, who is playing dominant football on the defensive line. It’s also allowed others the ability to contribute as well as he’s commanding so much attention. The Steelers plan has to be to neutralize and take Garrett out of the game. If they can do this, their offense should be able to move the ball without a ton of trouble and potentially expose some players that have been a little bit covered up to date. Pittsburgh always like to establish the run and James Conner should find some holes in the middle of the Cleveland defense. This will also help slow down Garrett if they can stay out of third and long and obvious passing situations.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Browns are 1-16 straight up in their last 17 games vs the Steelers
– The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games
– The Steelers are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games vs the Browns
Although this game will be a black and blue rough affair, it should also be an entertaining one. The Browns want to prove they are for real and won’t be bullied by their rivals any longer. The Browns have only beaten the Steelers once in the last nine seasons, and additionally have been poor on the road overall. Cleveland will be in the thick of things when the season winds down, but this will be a learning experience and show on the barometer that they’re simply just not there yet in the AFC North.
BetCrushers Take: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Steelers 29, Browns 23
Kanas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Monday October 19th
5:00pm
FOX
Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Kansas City Chiefs (-120)
Over/Under 57.5 (-110)
In what is an unexpected Monday Night Football doubleheader that starts at 5:00pm EST the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills with each team coming off of a disappointing loss. Each team was shredded defensively while their high-flying offenses weren’t sharp enough to overcome the defensive deficiencies. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are early season AFC favorites for MVP, and while Mahomes is already NFL royalty, Allen is eager to prove he belongs in the same category. When the Chiefs faced the Ravens on Monday Night we ended up with a bit of a dud as Kansas City rolled to a pretty easy victory. This game is again set up to be an absolute marquee showcase for the league and could be one of those instant classics if things go to form.
You know the bar is set high for your offense when you’re scoring points the way the Chiefs are and are being critiqued and questioned. Not that they need to make a statement to anyone, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see them come out firing on all cylinders on Monday against a defense that is really struggling. Just a little housekeeping here as new addition Le’Veon Bell will not be active for the game as he’ll need to clear COVID protocols and physicals. The Chiefs are also minus backup guard Kelechi Osemele and WR Sammy Watkins who won’t have a shot at his former team, but with this group it simply doesn’t matter. Mecole Hardman may actually add an even more explosive dimension filling in for Watkins and of course everyone already knows about Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. This offense is potent even against strong defenses, and right now this Buffalo defense is anything but that. The Bills do hope to have their top players in CB Tre White and LB Matt Milano back in the lineup which will give them a boost, but it just isn’t enough to match up across the board. The lack of pass rush from Buffalo and the poor cornerback play beyond White open the door for Mahomes to have his way in this matchup.
Josh Allen fell back to earth a bit after playing out of this world in the team’s first four ballgames. Despite a couple of bad throws and decisions against Tennessee he actually did some really nice things. He also hopes to have WR John Brown back in the mix which makes the Bills offense a lot tougher to defend. Another player that Buffalo really needs back for this game is guard Quinton Spain who’s been a really good player both in the run game and the pass game. Without Spain against the Titans Allen was under duress and the running game was basically non-existent. With DT Chris Jones lining up across from that gap, not having Spain will be a huge mismatch. Lost in the Bills fast start is the fact that their running game hasn’t really gotten going this season. Bills coach Sean McDermott publicly called out his offensive line and running back Devin Singletary, and facing the high powered Chiefs offense you can imagine he’ll get the ball early in this game. Will the team stay disciplined and committed to the running game and can the defense keep the Chiefs out of the end zone? As is the case with most teams facing the Chiefs, the offense needs to put 7’s on the board and cannot settle for field goals.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Chiefs are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games
– The Bills are 1-7 straight up in their last 8 Monday night games
– The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Chiefs
Both of these teams will bounce back to some extent after poor showings in week number five. There are some conflicting edges in this game. The Chiefs have the advantage of extra rest, while the Bills get the game at home. This is a “Super Bowl” type game for the Bills who will be putting everything they’ve got into making a statement win, particularly after their rough defeat on Tuesday night. The Chiefs are no stranger to big stages and have the matchup advantages in some of the key areas. This probably won’t be the Chiefs-Rams of 2018, however this should be a really fun and exciting game with plenty of offense. Much like we discussed around the Browns and Steelers, this will be an opportunity for the Chiefs to prove they’re still the elite in the AFC and the Bills are still a step behind. We locked this in at opening with a -3 line juiced at -120. We feel comfortable still betting this up to -4.5, although obviously if you can find that -3 that’s the route you’ll want to take.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City Chiefs -3
Chiefs 33, Bills 27
Teaser Bet
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
vs.
and 
vs. 
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Sunday October 18th
1:00pm
FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Indianapolis Colts -8 (-105)
Over/Under 46.5 (-110)
New York Jets (0-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Sunday October 11th
4:05pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -8.5 (-115)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Indianapolis -2 and Miami – 2.5
We’ve got a teaser play teed up that features one team coming off of a tough loss and the other off of a routing surprise victory. The Colts welcome in the Bengals in a game that is a mismatch in the trenches and the Dolphins host the hapless Jets who are still searching for their first win.
The Bengals and Colts game is really a pretty simple breakdown when you look at these teams. The Colts strengths are on their offensive and defensive lines. The Bengals weaknesses are on their respective offensive and defensive lines. Despite the fact the Bengals have some talent and should be optimistic for their future, this season and this game are part of the growing pains process. The Colts have some question marks in Denico Autry and Darius Leonard on the defensive side of the ball, but even if they are without one or both of them it still won’t matter. The Bengals O-line is going to be overmatched and outpowered all day which will make it very hard for the team to stay on the field, and potentially create turnovers. On the opposite side the Bengals are without their free agent prize D.J. Reader and still without Mike Daniels on their defensive line. The Colts offensive line should be able to push their way forward behind rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Philip Rivers hasn’t looked very polished as he continues to fight the turnover bug, but he’s got a golden opportunity against the Bengals to make things right. Between what should be an effective running game supporting him and time in the pocket, Rivers should be able to have a game manager type performance.
The second leg of the teaser is a pretty wild one because it includes the Miami Dolphins, a team that was winless just two weeks ago, favored by over a touchdown. That’s partially due to their impressive beatdown of the 49ers last week, but more a reflection on what a mess the Jets franchise is at the moment. Joe Flacco gets the start again for head coach Adam Gase and has his work cut out for him against an opportunistic pass rush and defense. With Le’Veon Bell freshly shipped out, this offense again has no identity and not a ton of talent. The revamped offensive line has played poorly and outside of Jamison Crowder, the receiving group including tight end Chris Herndon has been downright awful. This matchup seems pretty mirrored to the one against San Francisco so don’t expect the Jets to rally and get the offense moving this weekend. On the offensive side of the ball, Ryan Fitzpatrick continues where he left off last year, which is playing a fun brand of football and putting it all out there in what could be his last season as he keeps the engine running. The Jets defense, which was supposed to be it’s strength, has shown very little fight. This could be perhaps due to them not having confidence in their offense, or just not being a talented enough group. A legitimate question that needs to be asked with this team is are they laying down on coach Gase and could this be the game that gets him fired?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bengals are 0-13-1 straight up in their last 14 road games
– The Bengals are 3-8 straight up in their last 11 games vs. the Bengals
– The Colts are 13-3 straight up in their last 16 home games
You may need to shop this to find the 8.5 with the Dolphins, or potentially tease an extra half point with extra juice to get this under the key number of 3 as this line has moved a bit since opening. Realistically, the Dolphins should destroy the inept Jets and a double-digit win is certainly possible. We all know Ryan Fitzpatrick has been completely up and down in his career so the extra points gives some protection in case he turns the ball over. In the Colts and Bengals game, this is a situation of a good team at home and a bad team on the road. The mismatch on the offensive and defensive lines will be the difference in this game. Joe Burrow is the real deal but he needs some help and until the Bengals can address the big men on both sides of the ball it’s going to be hard for them to win games. The Bengals have some talent and we know the Colts tend to play close games so covering the 8 is certainly up for debate. Does anyone outside of Cincy really believe the Bengals can with this game though?
