Fives races are in the books and five remain in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs. Classic tracks, Las Vegas, Talladega, and now the Charlotte Roval. This hybrid track will axe four drivers from the postseason, leaving just eight teams fighting for the Cup Series Championship. Who survives elimination at the Charlotte Roval on Sunday? More importantly, how can we profit from this race?
Surviving Talladega
Last weekend’s YellaWood 500 at Talladega was a classic superspeedway battle featuring cars in the air, a caution on Lap 1, and a triple overtime finish. In fact, only two playoff drivers finished in the Top 10 (Hamlin, Elliott) and just half of the twelve were in the Top 20. Talladega is an uncomfortable place for a Championship contender on the bubble to keep their head above water. Denny Hamlin implemented the #11 team’s strategy to perfection, staying out of the fray until the time was right. He wasn’t necessarily in danger of being cut next weekend, but the win cemented his position in the Round of 8 and likely punched his ticket into the Championship 4.
Hamlin’s strategy allowed most of his fellow playoff drivers to find trouble in one of several key accidents. Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, the Busch Brothers, and Joey Logano were all unable to complete the race. Kurt Busch is very fortunate to have earned his ticket to the Round of 8 at Vegas in the prior race. It was a huge miss for his brother Kyle, who currently sits as the first driver out after the upcoming elimination race. Everyone below Brad Keselowski is in danger of being cut if they deliver a poor performance at the Charlotte Roval.
Three Strikes and Out
The rationale behind slashing my bet size in half last weekend manifested itself early and often. As positive as I felt with our three wagers, confidence can turn to regret very quickly and dramatically at Talladega. Exhibit A is Kurt Busch. I simply needed him to finish ahead of his brother Kyle, but the Bowyer-Johnson wrecking ball sent Kurt flying through the air on lap 108. Tough break, but that’s Talladega’s charm in action.
That wasn’t my first wager go down the tubes. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. got caught up in one of three wrecks within the first twelve laps of the race. John Hunter Nemecheck gave Stenhouse a little kiss that put him in the wall. A bet on Ricky is always a high-risk proposition, so nobody to blame there but myself. The most egregious loss of the afternoon came at the hands of Alex Bowman. Bowman, who will be driving Jimmie Johnson’s #48 Chevy next season, crowded race-leader Aric Almirola and send him wildly into the wall right before the end of Stage 1. Talladega was an 0-fer, knocking off 1.6 units. We live to fight another day.
The Charlotte Roval
That day will be the knockout race on the Charlotte Roval. The Roval is a 2.28-mile course with 17 turns that takes most of Charlotte Motor Speedway’s main track and adds a big twist. The traditional 1.5-mile high-banked oval is diverted into another 3/4-mile of twists and turns in the infield. This innovative track made its Cup Series debut in 2018 as the token road course representative. And it was a huge success. Two years later, NASCAR cranked up the volume and awarded the Charlotte Roval an elimination race. Like the previous two races here, drivers will run 109 laps to complete the 400-kilometer race.
Completing this race could be more complicated this weekend. Hurricane Delta has a little something to say about how and when this race will be run. Chances are this race will either be delayed or weather will have a significant effect on Sunday’s contest. This does not help the cause of handicapping this crucial elimination race at the Charlotte Roval. Similar to Talladega, I intend to bet this race pretty damn close to the vest. When Mother Nature adds extra volatility to the mix, you better respect it.
Chase Elliott: A Road Course Machine
If you don’t know, Chase Elliott does pretty well for himself on road courses. The most recent example is his win at the inaugural Daytona Road Course race a couple months ago. What’s so impressive is that the Daytona score marked three consecutive road course Ws: Watkins Glen, the Roval, and now the Daytona Road Course. This domination had NASCAR analysts asking “Has Chase Elliott become the best road course racer?” If we don’t have an answer yet, this weekend could speak volumes.
Since joining the #9 Hendrick team in 2018, Elliott has run seven Cup Series road course races. Chase won four of them. In fact, his only non-Top 10 performance in those seven races was a result of engine problems (2019 Sonoma). That’s four Ws, 4th, and 6th. Winning at Daytona’s brand new course without any practice says a lot on its own, but it’s even more profound as Elliott’s third-straight road course conquest.
Chase sits in 4th place in the playoff standings and is 44 points above Kyle Busch in the 9th spot. This is not a must win spot for him, though it would give him some much-needed playoff points. A Round of 8 win by a fellow contender could put him in a tough position if Joey Logano survives this weekend. This is Chase’s element and he enters it in very good form. Dating back to the August 2nd New Hampshire race, Elliott has five Top 5s and nine Top 10s in twelve contests.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
Chase Elliott delivered us a big win last year at what would now be a huge price of 8/1. Good luck finding anything close to 5/1 this year after Elliott managed to rattle off those three straight road course wins. On his heels are fellow road course winners Harvick (2), Truex (4), Hamlin (1), Blaney (1), Bowyer (1), and Kyle Busch (4). These playoff contenders are hungry for more points before heading into the final four races of the 2020 season, so don’t count any of them out.
Alex Bowman: A Chance for Redemption
And by redemption, I mean atonement for wiping out Aric Almirola last weekend. The incoming driver of Jimmie Johnson’s #48 can make things right in my book with his third strong Roval performance. Hurricane Delta and postseason pressure will make things very difficult on Alex Bowman. How will he respond to these factors and the potential distractions of his promotion within the Hendrick Motorsports ranks? Although AB sits on the right side of the looming cut line right now, the margin is thin at just two positions and 22 points above the cut line.
Bowman needs a strong finish and/or a lot of luck to enter Kansas next weekend as a Championship contender. Fortunately, Alex has a decent resume on road courses in his three full-time seasons at the Cup level. Since joining the #88 team in 2018, his average finish on twisty tracks is just inside the Top 10. That’s a fairly good start for his young career, considering that Bowman has just three Top 10 finishes in those seven races. Most important, and most impressive for that matter, is that AB is 2-for-2 in the Top 5 department at the Roval.
Bowman’s success on this road course hybrid has been more pronounced than his results on Charlotte’s oval. His first two Charlotte races in the #88 were solid Top 10s after starting well outside of the lead pack. Then came this year’s Coca-Cola 600 where AB won two stages and led 164 laps, but had a miserable restart in OT. That disappointing 19th place finish was followed up by 31st in the mid-week encore after placing 5th in Stage 1 and winning Stage 2. Unfortunately, Bowman slid going into the corner late in the race, took damage, and finished two laps down in 31st.
Fade The Outlaw?
The worst part about my mid-week NASCAR betting options now being severely limited is a smaller matchup menu to choose from. So small that I actually considered laying -122 with Bowman against Kurt Busch. Then I dug into The BetCrushers’ 2020 MVP a little more. I graded Kurt with a “?” at the Roval after his mixed results. 2018 was a great debut for him here. Busch earned the pole and finished 5th, marking his ninth Top 10 road course finish in ten races.
But things flipped upside down on The Outlaw in 2019. He qualified poorly (23rd) and finished 20th because he “Just didn’t have the speed“. He could be a step behind his old self in the #1 Chip Ganassi Chevrolet on road courses. It’s only been two years and four races since moving from the #41 team, but his road course results have not been overly reassuring. Playing Alex Bowman against Kurt Busch could be a decent matchup if you are of the opinion that Busch is slipping on these tracks. The looming downside in fading The Outlaw is that the wily veteran could easily regain his Top 10 road course form this weekend.
The Play:
Alex Bowman Top 5 +260 (risk 1/3 unit)
Alex Bowman Top 10 -134 (win 2/3 unit)
Since Kurt doesn’t offer me a clean read here, I shifted my approach to bet on Alex Bowman posting his third strong showing at the Roval. Two races on this new track does not make a full history to accurately gauge from, but you cannot deny how well he has raced here. AB has proved that he can qualify well (3rd, 2nd) and capitalize on great starting position with a 4th place and runner-up finishes. He starts 5th in this weekend’s race, so I expect Bowman to stay up in the lead pack – assuming nothing overly fluky takes place. Playoff pressure can turn into confidence with Alex in this spot. The #88 team is positioned to advance into the Round of 8 with a Top 10 finish, and most definitely with a Top 5.
You can find a better Top 10 price out there around -125, which is about ten cents better than what I grabbed on Thursday. My comfort zone is no less than +225 on the Top 5 and no more than -140 on the Top 10. Hurricane Delta’s effects concerns me, but this single-unit combined position gives me enough reward for the risk. Plus Paul @NASCARStyleOdds said to me that I better hope Bubba Wallace doesn’t decide to return the favor for last year’s spinout. Scared money don’t make money, so I’m backing Alex Bowman to run well and avoid elimination at the Charlotte Roval this weekend with a split Top 5/Top 10 play on the #88.
The Better Half
The 2020 NASCAR Playoff field will be cut in half after Sunday’s elimination race at the Charlotte Roval. NASCAR’s Round of 8 visits Kansas, Texas, and then the much-loved Martinsville Speedway for the cut to the Championship Four at Phoenix. Don’t miss any of our red-hot NFL betting features or NASCAR handicaps through the end of the season! Connect with us on Twitter or subscribe below to receive email alerts:
