Tonight’s Final Four action is sure to capture the attention of many bettors, and rightly so. As you’d expect, I’ve got MLB in my crosshairs. Friday’s 2-1 on run line plays got me back in the black for the season, yielding +1.65 units for a +0.62-unit advantage since Opening Day. Modest, to say the least.
Kevin Gausman’s 7 huge innings of shutout pitching put the Braves in the driver’s seat, but they had to hold on to a 4-0 lead in a dramatic 9th inning. The Phillies continue to score runs; last night was their fifth game of scoring 8 runs or more. Yesterday’s betting blemish came with backing the Cardinals in their home opener, which saw a short start from Flaherty turn into a bullpen choke job. That’s the MLB though…bullpen variance can truly test your patience as a bettor.
We’ve got a full slate of 15 games on deck, though TB/SF was not on the board at the time of publishing this article.
Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Minnesota throws Michael Pineda at the red-hot Philly bats in an afternoon showdown of offensive clubs. Pineda’s tenure with the Yankees was a tenuous one due to periodic early-game lapses. This is a situation where the Phils could jump on him early and force Rocco into a difficult decision like last night: lean on the pen to pitch a long relief game, or keep him in to fight for innings. The Twins’ bullpen is gassed after last night’s 7+ innings in relief. If Minnesota can get some early runs on the board, this decision gets a little easier for them though.
Jake Arrieta does not have a sizable advantage over Pineda when comparing them in a bigger context, but his ability to stretch out and eat some innings may prove to be key today. Although Philly’s bullpen has the clear edge in this one, they will ideally get 6 IP from Arrieta before turning it over to the relievers. Both teams can mash; it’s a matter of jumping on Pineda early and pressuring Minnesota’s weakened bullpen.
We all know this club’s blazing hot scoring run will cool down eventually. This is not the time to keep your money in your pocket, though anyone in their right mind knows there’s no sure thing in this racket. The +140 paid last night, and it should again today.
WAGER: Phillies RL +140
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
Admittedly, I’m still trying to figure out what this Cardinals team is this season. They should be contending with the Brewers for the NL Central crown come late summer. The Padres got to the Cards’ pen and did damage yesterday and spoiled the excitement of the sellout crowd. They put an interesting pitcher in Chris Paddack on the hill, who has decent strikeout potential and can be tough to hit. San Diego’s upgraded lineup has done enough to scratch out 5 wins this season.
Michael Wacha’s 2019 debut was successful, allowing just 1 run in 6 IP to the Brewers’ powerful offense. He has the potential to get another 6 innings today with a good cutter and changeup combo working. I still give the edge to the Cardinals’ hitters though the bullpens are on par with each other. Goldschmidt has been quiet lately and a good 2-for-4 type of game is needed to put St. Louis in control today.
This may be another wasted run line ticket on St. Louis, but you have to imagine this team has some revenge on their mind. They took a bad loss in their home opener after 6 games on the road and a rainout of the original opener date. It’s tough to handicap emotion and motivation, but the edge is still there for the Redbirds and we’ve a nice run line price for the trouble.
WAGER: Cardinals RL +165
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Tonight’s AL East contest seems like it should be lopsided in favor of Atlanta, which it is in most ways but one: Sandy Alcantara. This kid was electric in his start against Colorado, dominating them for 8 innings. He is a control pitcher that could foil the Braves’ plans. Realistically, that’s all that Miami has in this one.
The jury is still out on Kyle Wright, however. It’s hard to tell what they will get out of him against a soft Miami offense, but Atlanta has the luxury of going to a rested above-average bullpen if he falters early. There are major disparities between these two teams that are reflected in the line value (or slight lack thereof). The outcome should come down to the effectiveness and/or dominance of Alcantara tonight.
WAGER: Braves RL +115
Texas Rangers @ LA Angels
Did I miss one of the rare chances at an Angels run line win last night? Dare I try again? I’ll be backing Tyler Skaggs against Drew Smyly and the Rangers this afternoon. Despite my below-average ratings on the Angels as a whole, I still believe that Texas came into the series on the overachieving end of the spectrum.
Skaggs is coming around as a good contact pitcher with a nice curveball and improved changeup. LA’s bullpen is a liability but they should be able to get more than usual out of their bats against Smyly, who can get knocked around. This is one of those “hold your nose” bets but I think the price is commensurate with the risk.
