ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
New Orleans Saints -105
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +145
Atlanta Falcons +650
Carolina Panthers +2000

There is some serious star power in the NFC South headed up by greatest of all-time Tom Brady landing in the sunshine of Florida. Although the Buccaneers have generated the largest buzz heading into the season, each team has their own interesting story lines. The Carolina Panthers are in an early rebuilding stage, Atlanta could be an underrated team for a change, and the Saints are going to make one more run behind Drew Brees. This will be a fun and exciting division to watch all season long.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2019 Record – 7-9
2019 Record Against the Spread – 5-9-2

Teams of hype and destiny rarely are able to live up to lofty standards throughout the history of the NFL. (See 2019 Cleveland Browns as the most recent example). Of course, teams of hype rarely have acquired the best player in the history of the game at their position to lead their team. Anything less than a Super Bowl run will be disappointing as this team was obviously created to win this year.

Taking a look at this offense looks downright ridiculous in terms of shear talent and production in both the recent history and lengthier history. In the past Tom Brady would be the one person that doesn’t need much discussion, but it only seems fair to wonder how he will perform this year? The simple answer seems to be, we’ll have to wait and see. What TB12 has going for him: An absolutely loaded offense. This includes an upgraded offensive line, deep skill positions at RB and TE including recent additions Leonard Fournette and of course his former NE buddy Rob Gronkowski. And of course one of the best duos at wide receiver of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Throw in the fact head coach Bruce Arians has flourished with veteran quarterbacks in his offense and that Brady has looked good in camp and there is a lot to be excited about. What is working against TB12? Not having the familiarity of the New England system and coaches to fall back on. And the obviously more important piece, that Father Time is completely undefeated in the history of this sport. Brady looked downright human in the second half of 2019 and that had never happened previously outside of the occasional off-game versus the Dolphins.

Taking a glance at the defense it has it’s own impressiveness, particularly with the big guys in the front seven. The linebackers are fast and athletic let by the underrated Lavonte David and sack machine Shaq Barrett, while the defensive line is big and powerful. The secondary isn’t quite as proven or known, however they certainly have their own athleticism and talent headed up by draft pick Antoine Winfield, Jr. It seems ridiculous to say, but let’s just put what is out there, out there. This team goes as far as Tom Brady can lead them, which could be to the Super Bowl, or to an 8-8 mark.

2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 16th (.502)
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-5
In case you couldn’t tell, we’re in a wait and see mode with how to wager with this team. 13-3, maybe? 7-9, maybe? We should have a clear picture after a couple of weeks because it’s a lot less about this puzzle pieces fitting together as it is if Brady can still play at a high level. Gun to the head, we’d take the over on their win total.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
Even though Mike Evans is still a little more well known and probably more skilled than Chris Godwin, it’s the latter who could see his production jump from even the impressive 2019 that he had. He’s not quite the same player, but he could be the Julian Edelman type guy in this offense. Over totals could be an option, just do your due diligence and wait to see how things are going first.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Chris Godwin (WR)
The backfield and tight end positions are too crowded to reach for any of the players despite some really enticing names. Mike Evans should be good to go and as we mentioned in the paragraph above, Chris Godwin could be the big consistent producer for this offense if Brady shows he can still toss the ball around.

Atlanta Falcons

2019 Record – 7-9
2019 Record Against the Spread – 5-9-2

Many people felt the Atlanta Falcons just underachieved a year ago. In actuality it’s fair to wonder just how good this team really is? We know that Matt Ryan is a good quarterback (maybe not the most clutch) and the weapons and speed are as good as anyone in the league. But did the Falcons give up too much to have the sizzle without building a good foundation in the trenches? Let’s make sure we are fair to the team and their coaching staff as we try to review what happened a year ago and look towards this season. This defense was absolutely decimated with key injuries early last year and never recovered. It’s hard to know what would have been and maybe equally as hard to predict what will happen this year but we’ll do our best. If you follow football we don’t need to get into much with their offense. This team did address some concerns on the offensive line through the draft and should be a little better this year. Their running game now rests on Todd Gurley II who could be a great fit for this team with his dual threat ability, if his knees can hold up. We all know that Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are as talented of a duo as we talked about in Tampa if not more so. The biggest thing to watch is how the loss of veteran tight end Austin Hooper impacts this offense and Matt Ryan in particular. Hooper was arguably the the comfort target for Ryan in 2019 and his departure can’t be understated. The team did replace him with the unproven Hayden Hurst who is a similar player to Hooper so we’ll see if he can fill the shoes. It would be nice to see Matt Ryan put the team on his back and “will” them to victory more but maybe that’s just not who he is as a player? Regardless, this team should score points and more than likely more points than they did in 2019.

Knowing what they have on offense, the key to this team’s season really rests on what they can do on the defensive side of the ball. They’ll start the year with a full defensive roster which is a step in the right direction. Bringing Adrian Clayborn back should bolster the depth on the D-Line and and help free up some others with the pass rush. Although it appears as though those things should help this defense it’s still debatable how good this unit can actually be. The Atlanta Falcons are not a team I’d want to play in one matchup as they can light up anyone when they’re clicking, but when we’re looking at an entire season it’s hard to imagine them really doing consistent damage across the board. They seem to be the typical team with some star power that leads to them being overvalued as a group. If you need evidence of that, just look at their record ATS last year at 5-9-2 record, which followed up their 4-10 ATS record in 2018, which was worst in the league. No matter how poorly the team performed the books never really adjusted to make them a lower tier team.

2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 5th (.525)
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -120, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-8
This team managed to put 7 wins on the board a year ago despite being decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. As a veteran team with playmakers and continuity that starts the season healthy and at least attempted to plug some holes it’s feasible this team could be better this year.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Over Totals / Against the Spread / Prop Bets
There are a lot of possible plays out there when you look at this Falcons team. Even with expected high point totals they still go over at nearly 62%. If they’re overvalued again this year it’s possible that betting against them could be successful once again. And if you like the prop bets, taking Julio Jones in catches or yards is one of the safest wagers you can make even with the high numbers.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Calvin Ridley (WR), Hayden Hurst (TE)
Julio Jones has been one of the most consistent fantasy players over the past handful of years even if he has struggled with untimely TD droughts. But this year we’re looking at Calvin Ridley on the opposite side. Ridley came into his own in 2019 and looks poised to make the leap to Pro Bowl caliber receiver. It’s just a hunch, but it sure seems like he could be a solid contributor week in and week out. We talked briefly about Hayden Hurst, he’s a guy that’s worth at least taking notice of based off of both his raw potential and Ryan’s track record of featuring tight ends in the offense. If you’re a true gambler, you can take a flyer on Todd Gurley, just know that you’re truly rolling the dice on that front.

Carolina Panthers

2019 Record – 5-11
2019 Record Against the Spread – 6-9-1

The Carolina Panthers odds at +2000 line up with the fact that this team is in a rebuilding haul. A new regime and quarterback headline the changes that include some new young players on a defense that was gashed a year ago. If you are a Panther fan it could be a long season in the NFC South as wins will be hard to come by. The good news is they should have some steadier quarterback play with Teddy Bridgewater now the man behind center. The better news is Christian McCaffrey is still lining up behind Bridgewater and there is little reason to doubt he won’t terrorize the league in a repeat performance of 2019. D.J. Moore looks as though he can be a strong number one wideout and Robby Anderson came over from the Jets to give the team some more speed down the field. So everything sounds fantastic then, right? Well, not so fast, remember +2000… The team no longer has their consistently best player as Greg Olsen is going to ride out his career in Seattle it appears. More concerning is this offensive line is not all that great or deep. If they can somehow play at a higher level than we anticipate, this offense could be decent, it’s just unlikely they’ll be able to do that week in and week out.

Defensively this team looked to the draft to upgrade the unit which was the correct approach for the vision of what they claim they want to build. The problem with that is in the short-term you have some inexperienced players and a lot of guys on the depth chart that should be backups or role players in this league. Brian Burns is the exception to that statement who was looking great before an injury ended his rookie season. Retired All-Pro Luke Keuchly seemed to be cleaning up a lot of bad defensive plays with regularity last year and he’s not there to help any longer. Have some patience with this team as they’ll likely show some good things throughout the year, but realistically this team will struggle more often than they find success.

2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 18th (.500)
Team Win Total Odds – 5 Wins (over -120, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 5-11
It’s going to be hard for this team to win within it’s own division which always poses a challenge to the overall win total. The oddsmakers have them listed at 5-11 and that really seems to be pretty spot-on for where this group is.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets, Totals – Over
It must be something about this division, but Christian McCaffrey is about as sure thing as there is at the running back position week in and week out. This offense can score with their skill position players, and this defense is not going to be overwhelming anyone. Early in the season, over point totals could definitely be in play.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Christian McCaffrey (RB), D.J. Moore (WR)
If you have the number one pick in your fantasy draft you may strongly want to consider taking McCaffrey. Based on the division he plays in and the offense the team runs it’s not crazy to say he’s the best player available. In any kind of PPR league he provides a lot of value due to his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. D.J. Moore elevated his game in 2019 and became a consistently good receiver. With a consistent quarterback and some help on the opposite side he should have another strong season whether the Panthers are winning or not.

New Orleans Saints

2019 Record – 13-3
2019 Record Against the Spread – 11-5

The New Orleans Saints had a disappointing end to their campaign in the playoffs after rolling through another regular season with relative ease. Depending on your viewpoint you may think it was a nice thing or a negative thing that their playoff loss was just due to laying an egg as opposed to some unfortunate luck as in the previous two years. Drew Brees was hungry enough to come back for one more run at another Super Bowl before the window closes and the team is all-in on that plan. (At the time of this article the team is rumored to be the front runner to add Jadeveon Clowney to an already stout defensive line).

You can basically make a carbon copy of a breakdown for the Saints by taking the breakdown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This team is loaded with possibly the best overall roster top to bottom in the league. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders to play opposite of target magnet Michael Thomas is a quiet and phenomenal front office move for this team. Joke all you’d like, but adding Jameis Winston to secure the backup quarterback position was another really brilliant move. No one is going to mistake Winston for Brees, but having a veteran backup who can toss for 400 yards in a season with COVID-19 is a pretty nice luxury. So what could possibly go wrong for this offense? One minor concern is the mental state of RB Alvin Kamara who has held out of some practices due to unhappiness with his current contract. That likely won’t be an issue, yet it’s definitely something at least worth mentioning. The main question mark with this team is exactly the one in Tampa Bay. Drew Brees has the desire to keep playing and winning, but do his arm and body have the ability to do the same? He played well up until the last couple of games in 2019 so it’s very possible he will be just fine. One thing we’ve all seen over time is when players “lose it”, they tend to lose it very fast. If Brees is the Brees we all know, this team rolls easily to a 10 to 13 win season again. If he’s not, there will be some interesting talk with Winston and recently paid Taysom Hill sitting on the bench.

The weakness on the defense rests at the linebacker position as you’d probably consider this group average, even with Demario Davis on that unit. The defensive line is already very good, with or without Clowney. The secondary is deep and talented as well. The Saints are even well balanced on special teams, something that we are often guilty of not factoring in highly enough when betting. The pieces are in place for one more Super Bowl run in Drew Brees illustrious career. Can he hold up physically to lead this team for one more entire season including the playoffs if they’re able to get there?

2020 Strength of Schedule – 24th (.490)
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-5
The Saints could very feasibly finish this year at 13-3 again this year if Brees is healthy and effective. The only thing keeping us from banking on that is history tells us is nearly impossible to duplicate 13-3 type seasons year after year, since the inception of the free agency era. One other question mark is whether or not a quieter homefield will have a major impact on them as they generally enjoy a big advantage in the dome with the noise. We booked them over and think 11-5 should be very do-able.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
If Brees proves he is on his game, take six points with this team all day long if you can beat the key numbers.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Jared Cook (TE)
Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are season winning fantasy players and PPR monsters so we don’t need to brief you on their value. The guy we are really watching though is Jared Cook who is clearly in that “next” tier of tight ends. After a slow start in New Orleans Cook came on strong and looks set to have another productive year.