If the final month of last year’s race is any indication of what’s in store, the NL East is going to be one of the better showdowns in the MLB. Philadelphia, New York, and Atlanta stand at the head of the class with odds to win the division at 2/1 or shorter. The Phillies firmly planted their flag for their two main foes to capture, standing pat this winter with a loaded roster. Could there be a dark horse charging from the Nation’s capital or are they a year away from becoming a fourth contender? Let’s dig into the 2025 NL East race and find out…
Another season in the books marks The BetCrushers’ 6th Annual Divisional Previews for the 2025 MLB season. We go as deep as we can to find value in the futures markets – with a special focus on regular season win totals. It’s a labor of love for a good purpose. We appreciate you all! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)
2024 Division Champion: Philadelphia Phillies
2024 NL East Standings
- Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
- Atlanta Braves (89-73)
- New York Mets (89-73)
- Washington Nationals (71-91)
- Miami Marlins (62-100)
Philadelphia Phillies 2025 Win Total: Open 92, Now 91.5
2024 Result: Over 89.5 (95-67 / Pythag: 92)
The Phillies spent 13 long years riding shotgun in the NL East before claiming their first division crown since 2011. Although two World Series appearances in the meantime dispels any notion that it was a rough period for the Phils. A quiet offseason for the division champs isn’t necessarily a bad thing. After all, they have a stout lineup and pitching staff and did not lose much in free agency. So how do the Phillies stay at the top with a bolstered Mets club and a hungry pack of Braves at their heels?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- J Ross (SP – RHP)
- M Kepler (OF)
- J Luzardo (SP – LHP)
- J Romano (RP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- J Hoffman (RP – RHP)
- C Estevez (RP – RHP)
- S Turnbull (SP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 83 – 95
— Position Players —
Having a top five offense is nothing new in Philly, so why not keep the gang together and run it back? After scoring the fifth most runs (784) and swiping the fifth most bags (148) in the Majors, only the “briefly rented” Austin Hays left the position player group in free agency. Dave Dombrowski more than made up for the loss of Hays’ unremarkable half season by signing longtime Twin Max Kepler to a 1-year, $10M deal. Not going big in the trade market or free agency says a lot about the roster’s established talent – and their contracts.
Kepler is another left-handed hitting piece in manager Rob Thomson’s puzzle, plus he defends relatively well as a corner outfielder. Keep in mind he is 32 years old and has taken a beating over the years. When healthy, Max adds a little more oomph against right-handed pitching; the less productive side of the Philly lineup for a few years running. It doesn’t hurt that he has recently been even keel with his splits, aside from last season’s strong side dropoff.
M Kepler, wRC+ Splits by Season (2022-2024)
| v. LHP | v. RHP | All | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 104 | 92 | 94 |
| 2023 | 107 | 127 | 123 |
| 2022 | 97 | 93 | 94 |
| Average | 102.6 | 104.0 | 103.7 |
Fun fact: the Phillies sent balls out of the park at an even rate across both splits. The lineup features strong left-handed hitters like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh; all of whom posted OBPs of .342 or greater and slugged .450+ against righties. Even right-handed hitters Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and JT Realmuto were plus in this regard. In the big picture though, it came down to not getting on base enough.
PHI Offensive Splits (2024)
| HR/PA | BB% | K% | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v. LHP | 3.2% | 9.0% | 21.7% | .270/.342/.441 | 118 |
| v. RHP | 3.2% | 8.0% | 22.5% | .251/.318/.417 | 104 |
| All | 3.2% | 8.4% | 22.2% | .257/.325/.425 | 108 |
It is well noted that Philadelphia did not have a big offseason. Keep in mind that Dombroski is tasked to address the weaknesses not under contract, not make moves for the hell of it. The Kepler signing is modest, though it solidifies Thomson’s outfield platoon rotation. He joins Brandon Marsh as a complementary piece in Philly’s lineup as opposed to last year’s revolving door of guys like Kody Clemens, David Dahl, Whit Merrifield, and Austin Hays. The 27-year-old Marsh appears to have peaked in 2023 but still offers a +10-20% bat against righties.
Outfield counterparts Johan Rojas and Weston Wilson are slated to start against left-handers. Rojas is more of a known quantity after two MLB seasons; stout in center field but lacking in bat skills that could jeopardize any platoon advantage. His 2023 call-up season leaves enough hope for an uptick, much like Weston’s short 2024 resume that likely sees a small pullback. On the topic of platoon pairings, second baseman Bryson Stott may have played himself into a timeshare with Edmundo Sosa after dropping his reverse split strength last season. Projections seem to be downplaying Stott’s less productive 2024 and Sosa’s hard contact spike though.
Working With a Stable Personnel Group
Adjustments to Philly’s lineup pillars include Kyle Schwarber reverting to normal handedness splits, Trea Turner maintaining value by staying off the IL, and Alec Bohm slipping back toward defensive liability status. Bryce Harper still bangs, Nick Castellanos provides marginal value because he’s stuck in the outfield, and JT Realmuto eases back toward a 500-PA campaign. JT’s situation is tougher than most of his teammates as he approaches 34 years of age in a position that takes its toll on players. Balancing the need to keep Realmuto rested and healthy without any wiggle room at the DH spot is one of Rob Thomson’s biggest challenges. Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs may be their “locker room guy” but yields quite a bit to the 2x Gold Glover.
Philadelphia’s recent fielding improvements pulled them out of bottom five status. Even if Alec Bohm backslides a bit, Max Kepler provides a modest improvement over the revolving door in left field. I don’t want to over adjust for Schwarber’s splits reversion in Philly’s overall 4-6% offensive reduction.
— Rotation —
Once again, the Phillies rotation produced a top five valuation with considerable effectiveness (3.81 ERA, 3.88 FIP/3.58 xFIP). Plus their starting pitchers notched a third straight season around the 900 inning threshold. That may speak to their overall strength even better. Aside from Ranger Suarez’ lower back issues that held him out for a month, workhorses Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Christopher Sanchez each racked up 180+ innings with ERAs no worse than 3.57. The term inning eater is a poor fit for veterans Zack and Aaron due to the quality of their work, even if the long ball issues persisted for the freshly-extended Nola.
After his monster 6.3 WAR 2022 season, Aaron Nola’s strikeout and whiff rates steadily dipped. But we’re still talking about a 3-win floor due to his durability, depth of starts, and sub-4.00 performance. Elder statesman Zack Wheeler continued to filet batters with his tremendous arsenal and a dose of good fortune. The 34-year-old benefited from a career-low .246 BABIP across 200.0 innings – impressive in its own right – though the composite 2.57 ERA and 3.13 FIP/3.30 xFIP point to low-to-mid 3.00s numbers in a 4-5 WAR campaign. What’s not to like with an 8+ WAR one-two punch on top of the rotation?
It Takes (More Than) Two, Baby
Although injuries have been few and far between with Wheeler and Nola, they happen. That ever-present concern looming over each pitching staff further emphasizes Christopher Sanchez’ healthy 181.2-inning breakout. Not only did the 28-year-old southpaw tack on another 80+ innings, he maintained a sub-3.50 ERA to go with a 3.00 FIP/3.19 xFIP. The ground ball pitcher cut his hard contact rate by close to 6% but may face some home run luck regression en route to a 3-win 2025 season. I understand the skepticism for mid-rotation lefty Ranger Suarez to improve his innings and depth of start numbers after establishing a baseline over the last few years. But his command in addition to ground ball and weak contact attributes keep him in the 3-win range as well.
Once again, Philly sits in a strong position with two bona fide top-end starters and a pair of quality mid-rotation lefties. The fifth man and depth pieces can often make the difference between holding things together when injuries strike and having the bottom fall out of the rotation. Spencer Turnbull did a yeoman’s job in his 7 starts – especially the 6 early-season ones – but he’s out in free agency. Granted, the .173 BABIP in those starts make him less of a forward-looking loss entering free agency.
Finding a Fifth
Turnbull’s exit further exacerbated the need to find an actual #5 starter. Taijuan Walker’s 7.18 ERA and 6.96 FIP/5.14 xFIP eroded any confidence to plug him back in the rotation. And Mick Abel’s rough introduction to AAA ball – so many walks! – likely pushed back his rotation debut in Philadelphia much like top prospect Andrew Painter’s as Tommy John rehab will extend into the summer.
Enter into the mix former Miami Marlins’ starter Jesus Luzardo. The 27-year-old lefty is another top prospect who finally broke out in 2023 with a 32-start, 178.2-inning campaign. A lower back injury derailed his attempt to maintain a mid-3.00s level across another full season though. Even before the injury knocked him out in mid-June, Luzardo’s fastball wasn’t nearly as hard or effective. ERA ballooned to 5.00 and FIP/xFIP both popped by at least a half-run. Fortunately, his projections call for something around 4.00 and 25+ starts worth a couple wins.
Multiple big injuries aside, there are few reasons why Philadelphia’s starting pitcher group won’t repeat or even improve on its solid 2024 showing. Their four core starters needed a viable fifth to make up for any regression. Is Jesus Luzardo that clear of an upgrade over Walker? Very much so. Luzardo adds a win or more over the Walker/Turnbull/Phillips conglomerate but carries increased injury risk – an important aspect considering the unproven prospect depth lurking behind them.
— Bullpen —
Philly has mustered three seasons of impressive relief pitching, relegating the bullpen’s dark years to a distant memory. 37 saves at a 66% clip, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 5.8 WAR put this unit comfortably in the top third. Of the 10 pitchers with 20+ innings in relief, only one graded out with a negative WAR: Yunior Marte (-0.2). Marte is out along with key high-leverage righty Jeff Hoffman and second half acquisition Carlos Estevez.
The tank is still quite full though. Lefty/righty setup duo Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering threw down the gauntlet last year, earning solid projections in the low-3.00s and combined 2-3 WAR range. Strahm delivered back-to-back 2+ WAR seasons in Philly with all of 2024 spent in relief. It is fair to regress the southpaw’s 7.18 K/BB ratio and .234 BABIP though. Kerkering exploded as a rookie sporting a hard four-seamer, heavy sinker, and filthy slider. Add another 30% K guy in mainstay Jose Alvarado and you see why the floor is so high for the high-leverage group.
Backfilling the Gaps
Regardless of the stout core still in place, Jeff Hoffman’s gap is meaningful considering his 118.2 innings over two seasons worth 3.5 WAR. His one-for-one replacement is veteran Blue Jay reliever Jordan Romano, fresh off a season to forget. It was an oddball 15-outing cameo between IL stints in which he tallied 8 saves in 9 opportunities while posting a 6.59 ERA. After recovering from those nagging elbow injuries, Romano comes to town on a 1-year trial with modest mid-to-upper 3.00s expectations. The bullpen likely loses a win or so of value in the Hoffman/Romano swap.
Longtime NL East foe Joe Ross was signed to bolster the long relief end of things with spot start potential. He pushes a guy like Tanner Banks up in the ranks to offset the second half of Carlos Estevez and first half of Gregory Soto, who was dealt to Baltimore last summer. Ross and Taijuan Walker fit the innings-eater roles with obvious variance as 4.00+ arms. Strong on the front end and stocked with veterans keeps this group close to 2024’s, just a win or so less potent.
Atlanta Braves 2025 Win Total: Open 90.5, Now 92
2024 Result: Under 101.5 (89-73 / Pythag: 92)
It was one of those seasons that boiled down to a nail-biting conclusion. The Atlanta Braves jumped out to an 18-6 record while weathering the early loss of phenomenal young starting pitcher Spencer Strider. Down an ace? No problem. Then Ronald Acuna Jr. went down with a torn ACL two months into the season. From there, the Braves merely treaded water until mid-August when the switch flipped and the run to the postseason was made. There’s at least two good reasons why the Braves dropped 15 wins from the 2023 season’s 104! Now the market is simply looking for the slightest bit of improvement from this talented roster. Sound too good to be true?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- J Profar (OF)
- B De La Cruz (OF)
Subtractions:
- R Laureano (OF)
- J Soler (DH/OF)
- M Fried (SP – LHP)
- T D’Arnaud (C)
- C Morton (SP – RHP)
- G Urshela (3B)
- W Merrifield (UTL)
- AJ Minter (RP – LHP)
- T Matzek (RP – LHP)
- J Chavez (RP – RHP)
- A Duvall (OF)
- E Rosario (OF)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 93 – 97
— Rotation —
We were one of many who expected the Braves’ starting pitching to get back to its 2022 form, maybe even a little better. Turns out this group was exceptional in so many ways. They took on over 50 more innings, cut ERA by over three-quarters of a run, and widened their K/BB ratio from 2.71 to 3.46. And all that came with Spencer Strider’s season ending after just two starts. Think about it this way: this was the guy whose 2023 WAR made up over half of the entire rotation’s value.
Braves Starting Pitching, 2024 vs. 2023 Comparison
| 2024 Value | 2024 Rank | 2023 Value | 2023 Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAR | 17.4 | 1st | 11.4 | 11th | |
| IP | 904.1 | 3rd | 852.0 | 12th | |
| ERA | 3.58 | 3rd | 4.36 | 17th | |
| FIP | 3.46 | 1st | 4.21 | 10th | |
| xFIP | 3.46 | 2nd | 4.18 | 12th | |
| K% | 25.6% | 1st | 23.9% | 6th | |
| BB% | 7.4% | 14th | 8.8% | 23rd |
All was anything but lost at that point. Eventual NL Cy Young Award Winner Chris Sale put the pitching staff on his back, delivering 177.2 innings at 2.38 ERA. His command was superb and swing-and-miss stuff was about as filthy as ever. Not bad for the old lefty. Sale played the Strider role from the year prior, though the biggest difference was the supporting cast that stepped up and finished strong. Once the calendar flipped over to September, Atlanta’s starting pitching posted a 2.44 ERA and 3.03 FIP/3.31 xFIP.
Two members of the 2024 rotation are not returning to the team. Charlie Morton heads to Baltimore after five seasons in Atlanta; the final being his least effective through not terrible by any means. Left-hander Max Fried got a fat contract with the Yankees as a reliable 3+ WAR rotation staple. Their combined production across 59 starts and 339.2 innings worth 4.5 WAR is a topic of concern.
Back In Action
Part of that issue resolves itself with the return of Spencer Strider from internal brace surgery. At the onset of camp, the word is Strider could be MLB-ready by the end of April. If those reports are correct and the 26-year-old has a normal Spring Training, 100+ innings after ramping into the regular season would be much appreciated. A low-3.00s season with his customary 4+ K/BB ratio packs a punch, all things considered.
I’m seeing plenty of support in the projections for Chris Sale to remain a low-3.00s pitcher much like Spencer Strider. But it’s the innings that create the most uncertainty in Sale’s outlook. He avoided the IL for the first time in 7 years and is only getting older. That reduces the probability of a second straight 170+ inning season – although you cannot count it out. The downside simply lowers the probable innings range to account for it. Expect some volume absorption from Reynaldo Lopez, who carries expectations to add 20-40 innings in year two of his starting pitching career resurrection. I will be curious to what degree – or if – Reynaldo’s 1.99 ERA regresses to his 2.92 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, and 3.58 SIERA. That comes down to home run avoidance and keeping up a robust 27.3% strikeout rate.
Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach positioned himself quite well for a spot in the Opening Day rotation. 21 starts in the Majors straight from AA opened a lot of eyes including my own. Averaging 5.9 innings/start with a 3.35 ERA and 3.29 FIP/3.34 xFIP put a lot of positives in front of those newly-opened eyes. Schwellenbach’s claim to fame is a massive arsenal with impressive command that played sharply at the MLB level. Can he replicate the 13.5% whiff rate and 5.52 K/BB ratio over a full 170+ innings? You know my rule of thumb for this: more volume, less efficiency. The 24-year-old should replace his 2.6 WAR value even at mid-3.00+ effectiveness.
Step Right Up!
Spencer Strider’s return simplifies matters with four of the five rotation slots locked up. As for the #5 and reinforcement roles, late-bloomer Grant Holmes has a good opportunity to take on more starts. Folks seem unconvinced that last season’s 16.4% swinging strike rate as a starter and reliever translates to a longer tenure in the rotation. He and Ian Anderson will vie for the Opening Day roster while Strider ramps up for duty, though Anderson will be in “show me” mode during Spring Training after missing 2023 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and spending 2024 in the minors.
Anything short of an Anderson rebirth begs the Braves to call up MLB Top 50 prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Huston Waldrep for extended time. Both sport 4.00+ projections working primarily in relief but are volatile arms at this point in their careers. They’re not ideal rotation candidates until command issues are subdued, so don’t be surprised if manager Brian Snitker goes to someone like Bryce Elder. Elder looks to recapture his 2023 form that fizzled with a .366 BABIP in just 10 starts last season. Atlanta’s starting pitcher corps is stout at the top and promising at the bottom, though a number of factors leave the group a win or two short of 2024’s elite status.
— Bullpen —
Not only did Atlanta’s starting pitching rank among the elites, the bullpen rebounded as a stifling unit with very few weaknesses. Granted, it was aided by the rotation biting off 50 more innings. That is anything but a slight to the relief unit’s accomplishments. All of the following major metrics ranked top three in the MLB:
- 3.32 ERA
- 3.41 FIP & 3.56 xFIP
- 26.6% K
- 7.7% BB
- 6.1 WAR
When it came to locking down close games, however, their 40 saves fell smack dab in the middle. And the 65% conversion rate was just barely above the league average. Closer Raisel Iglesias was as solid as usual, nailing down 34 saves at an 89% clip. The collection of other high-leverage arms just happened to be about as un-clutch as possible in the other 24 save situations (25% conversion rate). Raisel has rarely been a liability in this role and projects well, short of dealing with an uncharacteristic .199 BABIP and 5.9% HR/fly ball rate. The latter is an area the 35-year-old has historically vacillated with from one season to the next.
Firing On All Cylinders
Notable losses from the 2024 unit include high-leverage staple AJ Minter, who delivered one of his best ERAs (2.62) in a season shortened by injuries. Minter suppressed run production efficiently despite losing 5.4% off of his strikeout rate, in part due to a career-low .222 BABIP. Fortunately, the Braves have two quality left-handers to count on: Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee. Lee’s second full season showed plenty of similarities to his 2022 rookie campaign with strikeout and swinging strike rates around 30% and 20%, respectively. Bummer has legitimate strikeout stuff and backs it up with a heavy sinker that produces ground ball rates pushing 60%.
The bullpen’s #1A to Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez is on the shelf for much or all of the 2025 season. The veteran right-hander suffered torn cartilage in his knee last fall after a dominant 1.8 WAR season. As opposed to Minter, Jimenez pitched a whopping 68.2 innings at a 2.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP/3.52 xFIP level. Ageless Jesse Chavez is also out, leaving behind 63.1 innings. 20 of Jesse’s 46 outings were of the 1+ IP variety.
Strikeout/ground ball righty Pierce Johnson returns to the front end for his final year under contract. Despite the aforementioned losses, the Braves’ noteworthy high-leverage half of the bullpen stands firm in 2025. Starting pitcher prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Huston Waldrep could get MLB reps in middle relief roles at some point. Guys like Anderson Pilar and Dylan Dodd figure to be first on the chopping block if unsuccessful. However, Angel Perdomo and Daysbel Hernandez project as productive sub-4.00 bulk arms in support of the big guns. Matching last season’s elite production is an uphill battle but not impossible; expect a value regression around 2 wins considering all factors in play.
— Position Players —
I mentioned in the team introduction how injuries to foundational players Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr. played big roles in dropping 15 wins. While the rotation rallied to produce at an elite level, the same cannot be said about the lineup. Atlanta’s offense was no better than league average coupled with bottom-third base running and mid-pack defense. And it’s not like Acuna exited after two months of MVP-caliber production. To make matters worse, Acuna was joined by Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies with prolonged IL stints. These three terrorized opponents with their speed and advantageous base running in 2023 but failed to menace last year due to a variety of ailments.
On the Mend
Continuing the Acuna-Strider parallel, the 2023 NL MVP will miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season. The platoon pairing of Jared Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz will fill in at right field during his absence. These role players can get close to a combined league-average bat if not overexposed to their weak sides. Acuna’s return lifts this position by 30-40% without a handedness compromise. Plus his dangerous wheels return to the bases – a huge reason why the Braves want their star’s left knee fully healthy. Even with Ronald’s delayed start the right field group should tack on 4 wins above the 2024 figure.
Expectations are through the roof for 2022 NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II. Many aspects of his game declined last year as a hamstring injury derailed another key development season. Harris stretched out in 2023 with more playing time, confirming his speed, fielding, and sneaky power for a centerfielder. Given his injury record and the fact that he plays a demanding position, be sure to allocate some rest and/or IL time into his projections for a +25% pop with the bat.
Assuming a fully healed wrist, veteran second baseman Ozzie Albies can give the position a +15-20% bump in support of the lineup’s top half. This trio in good health can add 7-9 wins to their position groups. Don’t forget that standout third baseman Austin Riley missed the last six weeks of the regular season and postseason with a broken hand. A lot of his metrics lagged baseline prior to the injury except for a career-high 53.4% hard contact rate. Riley defends relatively well for a slugging third baseman, though the latter attribute is what the club really needs most after Gio Urshela and Zack Short filled in with limited offensive production. Figure another +15-20% bump on this side of the diamond with a healthy Austin Riley.
Keeping 2024 In the Past
Ironman first baseman Matt Olson appeared in all 162 regular-season games for the third straight year. That makes four such seasons including his 2018 full-time debut with the Athletics. It didn’t take a rocket science degree to foresee Olson’s drop from his monster 2023 .283/.389/.604 line with 54 home runs, 127 runs, and 139 RBI. Talk about insane numbers! His regression was a little more steep than expected, especially the 66% drop against right-handed pitching. Fortunately, designated hitter Marcel Ozuna did what he could to keep the Braves from being a total disaster in that regard. Look for Matt Olson to get back around his career baseline including a push toward his handedness strength.
Head honcho Alex Anthopoulos addressed the team’s biggest hole by signing left fielder Jurickson Profar. The up-and-down switch hitter came to Atlanta instead of returning to San Diego where he was quite successful in 2022 and 2024. Will his pattern of subpar odd-numbered seasons going back to 2017 persist? At least his probable worst-case scenario won’t bring down what the position group mustered last year (.229/.278/.364, 77 wRC+). Profar’s major drawback is fielding despite scattered highlight reel assists, muting the outfield defensive strength some. Small gains at positions like third base and catcher could be overshadowed by the defensive markdown in left field.
Primary catcher Sean Murphy’s two month absence just one game into the season left Travis d’Arnaud to prop up the group’s offense. And that he did. Travis is now with the Angels, leaving backstop duties to Murphy and Chadwick Tromp. Atlanta’s mainstay has strong rebound potential though Tromp is very limited at the plate. Keep an eye on talented prospect Drake Baldwin in Spring Training after a strong season in the minors and Arizona Fall League.
An Abundance Of Upside
Coming back to Ozuna, what should we make of his late-career surge? His production as an everyday DH was second only to Shohei Ohtani, keeping the Braves’ offense alive for all intents and purposes. It surely wasn’t the collection of role players brought in with the hopes of shoring up the roster from the multitude of key injuries. How much of a pullback should we expect from the 34-year-old? 20%? 30%? Either way, DH is one of the few positions projected with a downgrade.
A healthier position player corps leads to a 5-7% improvement at the plate and 6-8 win increased value. Another season plagued by injury will stress Atlanta’s lack of serviceable depth though. Guys like Nick Allen, Luke Williams, and Garrett Cooper are stopgaps, at best. And there’s only so much young talent to part with to make moves at the trade deadline. The Braves are certainly not alone. Missed time on the IL is always a club’s biggest threat to performance over 162 games. We saw what happened when the Braves lineup was stripped of multiple big guns for prolonged periods of time. Avoiding that is a must in this three-horse NL East.
New York Mets 2025 Win Total: Open 91.5
2024 Result: Over 81 (89-73 / Pythag: 88)
It took a while for this playoff team to get going. Some had already written them off for dead. Then the Mets found another gear to rev up a 40-27 second half run that propelled them into the final wild card slot behind Atlanta – much to the dismay of the Arizona Diamondbacks. A minor purge of the lineup via free agency cleared the way for the winter’s most prized slugger, Juan Soto. It took $765 million over 15 years to move him across town into Citi Field. As if there were any debate beforehand, expectations are high for Steve Cohen’s boys to take down the Dodgers and win a World Series.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- AJ Minter (RP – LHP)
- G Canning (SP – RHP)
- J Soto (OF)
- C Holmes (SP – RHP)
- F Montas (SP – RHP)
- J Siri (CF)
Subtractions:
- J Iglesias (INF)
- L Severino (SP – RHP)
- H Bader (CF)
- J Quintana (SP – LHP)
- JD Martinez (DH)
- A Ottavino (RP – RHP)
- P Maton (RP – RHP)
- A Houser (RHP)
- J Diekman (RP – LHP)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 87 – 94
— Position Players —
A head-scratching 75-87 record in 2023 turned into an 89-win season fueled by a top ten offense. To keep that momentum going, the Mets did what just about every contending team wanted to do: sign Juan Soto. Landing him was obviously huge for the sake of stabilizing a lineup and the position player corps as a whole. By now, you’ve heard of Soto’s accolades and massive contract. To speed things up let’s get to what this guy means for the Mets’ projections: 30+ home runs (less friendly ballpark), +70-75% production, questionable fielding. That pencils out to 6-7 WAR. Exceptional.
Juan Soto is but one man though. He may replace several other players’ combined value but can still only occupy one position in the field and one spot on the lineup card. There were 15 free agent departures from the team this winter, impacting all three key roster areas. 6 position players left town with 3.2 WAR, most notably Jose Iglesias and Harrison Bader. Those two actually accounted for 3.8 WAR, which says a lot about JD Martinez. 2024 was the beginning of the end for one hell of a hitter.
Retooling the Lineup
The Pete Alonso saga is a well documented testament to keeping a beloved figure at home. There’s also a little something about having a consistent +25% power bat in the lineup every day who the fans love. Last season’s standout Mark Vientos stays at third base after slashing .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs. The negative to this is how Vientos was generally lackluster fielding the position. Plus it blocks Brett Baty and/or shortstop prospect Luisangel Acuna from meaningful playing time. In fact, this could be Baty’s last stand with the Mets after failing to make progress early in the 2024 season.
Surprisingly, the most value lost on the position player side is infielder Jose Iglesias’s. Upon having his contract selected from the minors on May 31st, the well-traveled veteran slashed .337/.381/.448 primarily filling in at second base. His bat was so hot that Carlos Mendoza had to find a way to put him in the lineup almost every day. Regular second baseman Jeff McNeil is showing signs of decline and wear-and-tear – last year’s wrist injury being a good example – reducing his effectiveness in both sides of his game. Temper his rebound indicators with these ongoing concerns.
Finally, centerfielder Harrison Bader leaves after posting his first healthy season since first coming up with St. Louis. So the Mets replace his quality defense and speed with Jose Siri, who can one-up Bader in those departments. Plus there’s an outside chance Siri matches Bader’s subpar bat. (Emphasis on the word outside.)
Business As Usual
Young catcher Francisco Alvarez was ensnared by the injury bug, halting last year’s development. Signs point to a bump offensively in the 10% range. His defensive outlook is mixed after receiving lower framing grades. Dependable outfielder Brandon Nimmo also had a down season at the plate and is expected to regain 5-10% as well. His aging curve demands Jose Siri’s success in center field as the corner is now more suitable for Nimmo’s skillset. Having Tyrone Taylor on the bench to back up any of the outfield positions helps the situation.
Small gains in center field and behind the plate should maintain the Mets’ positive fielding ratings. As for the offense, it is hard to imagine that Juan Soto won’t provide reliability to the lineup for quite some time. A Lindor-Soto-Alonso-Vientos top of the order should be very productive with solid on-base guys intermixed like Nimmo and Winker, though the latter will split time in a platoon DH arrangement. Our offensive grades are stable with some upside from 2024. There’s a lot to like about their lineup, just don’t underestimate the impact of Jose Iglesias when adjusting for the Juan Soto addition.
— Rotation —
By matter of circumstance or roster construction, New York’s rotation was stuck in neutral after a lackluster 2023. Their starters were far from bad though and the club got to kick the tires on younger talent like Jose Butto and Christian Scott. Unfortunately, 25-year-old Scott finds himself on the shelf this season after Tommy John surgery. On that note, Kodai Senga’s very unfortunate injuries sidelined his year two in the MLB after an impressive debut. Change is in the air as Steve Cohen’s group promptly addressed this relative weak area of the roster.
Noteworthy absences via free agency include Luis Severino and Jose Quintana. They were more than serviceable as 30+ start veterans who contributed 352.1 innings to the cause. Senga returns as a headliner in this retooled group, sporting mid-3.00s projections in line with the underlying numbers of 2023. His key drawback is a lower workload expectation than either of those two departures. At least he tips the scales towards greater quality with strong swing-and-miss stuff and ground ball contact. Additionally, left-hander Sean Manaea was re-upped for 3 years to help mitigate excessive innings losses from the 2024 group. The concern with baselining Manaea to last year’s 3.47 ERA is his declining K/BB ratio (2.92) and .245 BABIP.
Reconfiguring the Chess Board
Retaining Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea gives the rotation a solid footing of about 3-4 WAR. That’s far from the 10.1 WAR that this mid-pack group was valued at – in part, due to the MLB’s fifth-highest volume (892.2 IP). So the Mets decide to go the high-risk, high-reward route this offseason by signing Manaea’s old teammate Frankie Montas and Yankees closer Clay Holmes. The latter is a new addition to the list of notable relievers like former Met Seth Lugo, Jordan Hicks, and Reynaldo Lopez who crossed over to the starting pitching world.
Clay Holmes has been a dependable reliever for a while, delivering 63+ innings in each of the past 4 seasons. Granted, he took his lumps a bit more than usual last year, blowing 13 saves and exceeding 3.00 ERA for the first time since 2021. Extending into an effective 20+ start guy right away is asking quite a bit though. Plus the transition likely saps some of his effectiveness as it did for the other converts noted above. But one thing working in Clay’s favor is his heavy sinker that enables an effective pitch-to-contact approach that can help stretch his outings.
Frankie Montas gets close to filling Luis Severino’s production after bucking a lost 2023 season. At 150 innings and 4.00+ ERA, however, Frankie falls a bit short of Severino’s numbers. Even with optimistic projections to get closer to the xFIP portion of his 4.84 ERA, 4.71 FIP/4.26 xFIP. Front office head David Stearns is willing to gamble that Montas regains the control of his younger years and get close to a 2.0 WAR value. There’s quite a bit of variance with the Holmes-Montas pairing if you can’t tell. A 3+ WAR joint contribution is a very reasonable assumption.
Contingencies In Place
One of the minor staples of the rotation is David Peterson. The 29-year-old lefty earns mid-3.00s projections after missing the first couple months in 2024 due to offseason hip surgery. He got better as the season went on too. A second half 2.79 ERA, 3.18 FIP/3.84 xFIP supports a 2.0 WAR expectation, assuming Peterson can cross the 150-inning threshold for the first time in the Majors. He’s another one in the Mets’ stable of ground ball pitchers that benefits from a good infield defense behind him.
New York gets to kick the tires on Paul Blackburn more after coming over from Oakland at the trade deadline. He’s another pitch-to-contact guy without a ton of upside after posting a 4.43 ERA, 4.23 FIP/4.11 xFIP over the last 3 seasons. But it’s the likes of Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill who add much-needed depth behind the primary starters with volume questions. They will undoubtedly be needed to get this club a full 162-start rotation. Last year’s 10.1 WAR is a solid base to work from in 2025 with a 1-2 win gain well within reach if their wild cards come through.
— Bullpen —
Turnover is the highlight of the bullpen conversation. Much like the position player group, the bullpen underwent a purge of its own this winter after a significant reversal of fortunes from the rough 2023 campaign. Getting closer Edwin Diaz back from a knee injury was certainly one contribution to the rebound. Although he missed some time on the IL and posted one of his least impressive save conversion rates, the Mets had their go-to 9th inning guy back in the fold. The question of whether he gets back on track after a 3.52 ERA, 3.02 FIP/2.59 xFIP season with a low 53.2 innings looms over this group in 2025.
NYM Relief Pitcher Free Agent Losses
- Phil Maton – Although he made only 31 appearances for the Mets, they were good ones (2.51 ERA, 2.57 FIP/3.39 xFIP)
- Adam Ottavino – 2023’s 4.52 FIP and 4.33 xFIP caught up with the 39-year-old, making him expendable
- Jake Diekman – The veteran reliever’s 2023 resurgence was nowhere to be found in his 5.63 ERA downward spiral
- Drew Smith – Tommy John surgery was the nail in the coffin after several years of injuries and a sticky stuff suspension; a 2025 return is possible
- Ryne Stanek – The trade deadline acquisition never regained his Houston Astros years’ form, posting a 6.06 ERA in 17 appearances
Guys like Maton and Stanek simply failed to provide the anticipated trade deadline bump for the stretch run. They might be the most disappointing names on the departure list considering the advanced age of an Ottavino or Diekman. The above list’s 150.2 innings pitched for the Mets represent just over a quarter of the bullpen’s volume. So at least we’re not talking about major losses.
Longtime Atlanta reliever AJ Minter enters with the plan that he bites off a third of those lost innings. The high-leverage lefty looks to rebound from his first injury-filled season in a while, projecting as a 3.00+ fastball/curveball guy who can help lead the Mets relief unit forward. Especially with Jose Butto tackling his command woes and Reid Garrett knocking out a very productive first full MLB season. New York has quite a few replaceable parts in the back end and on the 40-man roster at AAA Syracuse that comprise this group’s biggest question marks. As for now, that variance makes it difficult to significantly improve on last season barring another round of trade deadline acquisitions.
Washington Nationals 2025 Win Total: Open 71.5, Now 71
2024 Result: Over 70 (71-91 / Pythag: 70)
Back-to-back 71-win seasons sounds like purgatory. But there’s actually really good news for D.C.’s team. Last year around this time, the Lerner Family announced they were no longer pursuing a sale of the club. With plenty of young talent firmly embedded in the 40-man roster – some of whom have very favorable contracts – any reasonable increase in payroll could accelerate the Nationals’ trajectory in a tough NL East. Despite multiple breakouts in 2024, the market is lukewarm on the season ahead. Is the collective upside greater than expectation, or will there be more bark than bite?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Shinnosuke Ogasawara (RP – LHP)
- J Lopez (RP – RHP)
- A Rosario (INF)
- J Bell (1B/DH)
- N Lowe (1B)
- M Soroka (SP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- R Garcia (RP – LHP)
- K Finnegan (RP – RHP)
- T Rainey (RP – RHP)
- P Corbin (SP – LHP)
- J Barnes (RP – RHP)
- J Gallo (1B)
- I Vargas (INF)
- J Meneses (1B/DH)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 66 – 68
— Position Players —
Another below-average offensive season isn’t necessarily a surprise for a 71-91 team. Young legs led to the league’s highest stolen base count (223) at a modest – but well worth it – 75% clip. But without the power numbers to drive in runs, the Nats struggled to compete in a tough NL East. So that prompted Mike Rizzo’s front office to telegraph the club’s intentions for Washington’s young position player talent to develop with the help of an extra bat or two.
After missing out on free agent Paul Goldschmidt, the Nats dealt reliever Robert Garcia to the Rangers for left hand-hitting first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Lowe has the contact skills to revitalize a position group that graded out in the bottom third despite Juan Yepez’ second half. Throw in old friend Josh Bell as designated hitter for a 30% boost and Rizzo’s goal is accomplished. Neither Lowe nor Bell need a righty platoon partner, though Yepez pairs well with them on the short side. This is the 3-win upgrade the Nationals needed at these bat-first positions after guys like Joey Gallo, Joey Meneses, and company left much to be desired.
There’s a healthy list of positives to talk about with this club. And there’s no better place to start than the outfield, which welcomed two prospects and saw its young centerfielder take a big step forward. Things were so good out on the grass that the team actually dealt from a position of strength. Nationals’ 2023 position player WAR leader Lane Thomas was traded to Cleveland at the deadline for a pair of prospects and work-in-progress third baseman Jose Tena. Even if 30-year-old corner outfielder Alex Call’s small-sample 167 wRC+ fizzles across greater playing time in 2025, the Nats’ outfield is still covered quite nicely.
Washington’s Outfield: The Next Generation
- James Wood (22) came to town along with CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore in the Juan Soto deal with San Diego. Less than two years later, Wood became a key cog in the Nats lineup by slashing .264/.354/.427 with 14 stolen bases as a rookie. He’s certainly a bat-first corner outfield/DH type though.
- Dylan Crews (23) progressed from rookie ball in 2023 to an August 26th call-up by mashing AA and AAA pitching. Don’t let that .218 average fool you – Crews’ .253 BABIP muted his tremendous speed and power.
- Jacob Young (25) picked up where his modest bat left off (.256/.316/.331) but his value greatly improved with impressive fielding in year two in the Bigs. Young’s 12 DRS/16 FRV was a bright spot on a bad fielding club. Have his instincts and technique improved enough to sustain these numbers?
These guys are an interesting prompt to start with. Jacob Young’s sharp improvement in the field is notable, yet the Nationals as a whole were still a bottom five or ten defense depending on which metrics you prefer. This is nothing new though. Poor fielding cost the team 2-4 wins in each of the last three seasons. And that could persist into 2025 if Young cannot match last year’s strong work and/or shortstop CJ Abrams fails to reverse his fielding trajectory. On that note, Abrams battled off-field maturity issues in addition to declines across multiple defensive grading systems. Stable offense and improved fielding could deliver an additional win of value if his head is in the game.
Holding Down the Infield
CJ’s presence allowed Luis Garcia Jr. to settle in at second base and form a neutral-ish defensive pair. Both have plus bats and shape up to be a 50+ stolen base, 5-6 WAR tandem again. The low hanging fruit of gains hang over third base after last year’s -0.4 WAR. 23-year-old Jose Tena figures to get a shot but needs a right-handed platoon mate to realize gains. Ildemargo Vargas and Trey Lipscomb provided those services in recent years with limited success. Veteran utility man Amed Rosario is a decent short side pairing with positional flexibility. Although the true difference maker is 21-year-old prospect Brady House. He should get the call at some point this season. House’s game is all about power, speed, and defense. An additional win or more is there for the taking at third base unless either or both of these young guns flop.
Finally, what to do about the Nats’ replacement-level catcher group? Even if you throw out Keibert Ruiz’ worst hitting season of his young career, his average bat and defensive value make this one of the team’s more middling positions. At least he snapped out of a wicked slump behind the plate! Longtime backup Riley Adams is all but a duplicate of Keibert, which shouldn’t be a surprise as both players dipped at the plate in lock step and are expected to tack on 10-20% improvements in 2025. So add value at catcher by virtue of getting back to baseline.
Promising young talent, infusion of a couple veteran bats, and a little positive regression should lead the Nats’ position player corps to a 4+ win improvement. Their defensive outlook has the biggest question mark in Jacob Young’s year-over-year change, leading to uncertainty centered on status quo. Key offensive gains pencil out to a 3-4% improvement headlined by additions Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell.
— Rotation —
Washington’s breakthroughs in the outfield extended to its 13.1-WAR rotation – its best valuation since the shortened 2020 season. The starters’ collective 43-61 was nothing to write home about, in part due to an ugly .308 BABIP hindered by the club’s bottom-third defense. Veteran lefty Patrick Corbin and his much maligned contract have left the District, but so does his 174.2 innings across 32 starts. The sad part is how an ugly 5.62 ERA and .337 BABIP marred what may have been his best season since the 2019 World Series campaign. But that is in the past. Now the Nationals look to build upon their rotation of now consisting of MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin, and DJ Herz:
WSN Key Starting Pitchers (2024) (* Made MLB debut)
| Age | Starts | IP | K/BB | BABIP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Gore (L) | 26 | 32 | 166.1 | 2.78 | .340 | 3.90 | 3.53/3.87 | 3.2 |
| M Parker (L)* | 25 | 29 | 151.0 | 3.09 | .302 | 4.29 | 3.85/4.17 | 2.4 |
| J Irvin (R) | 28 | 33 | 187.2 | 3.00 | .273 | 4.41 | 4.41/4.03 | 1.8 |
| DJ Herz (L)* | 24 | 19 | 88.2 | 2.94 | .288 | 4.16 | 3.71/3.85 | 1.7 |
MacKenzie Gore stacked small gains in multiple key areas: walk rate, length of start, number of starts, hard contact, etc. All of that in the face of a stiff BABIP headwind too. The recurring theme in many of Gore’s starts that I watched, “What does this guy have to do to get out of the friggin’ inning?” compounded seeing eye singles and general lackluster infield play. Regardless, the former #3 overall pick established a solid mid-to-upper 3.00s baseline that could maintain a 3 WAR level with improved command and another quarter-inning per start.
Fellow southpaw Mitchell Parker pleasantly surprised in 150+ innings as a rookie. Low-4.00s production should continue into an important year two after cracking down on walks from his MiLB days. In fact, Parker’s next step could look a lot like Jake Irvin’s year two. Irvin tacked 9 more starts and 66.2 innings onto a trial by fire rookie season (4.61 ERA, 5.30 FIP/4.14 xFIP). Of particular interest is DJ Herz’ rookie campaign topping the others. Strikeouts matter. The kicker, naturally, is only seeing 88.2 innings in the Bigs and exhibiting lackluster command. DJ’s changeup continues to be legit though.
The 2025 outlook for these four is interesting. More of the same out of Gore and Irvin; additional innings from Parker and Herz. At some point Cade Cavalli will impact the MLB roster, though injury concerns temper any enthusiasm. But there’s more where that came from. Fellow prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cole Henry could bid for starts if necessary. You can see how the Nationals are building up for a push in 2026 with all of these arms.
Veteran Projects
Health was on the side of those core starters; not so much for 32-year-old Trevor Williams who jumps back in the saddle on a 2-year deal. Although Williams made only 13 starts due to a flexor muscle strain, the veteran went 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA worth 2.0 WAR. The ERA and 2.79 FIP are career bests that might very well be tied to leaning into a retooled sweeper. Handicapping Trevor’s 2025 performance is even more tricky when stretching the truncated 2024 numbers out to a 20-30 start campaign. Plus you have a .267 BABIP and 4.2% HR/FB ratio to negotiate. I don’t hate Washington re-signing him as a depth piece or into a six man rotation. Keep in mind there is plenty of injury risk across the board with the twenty-somethings.
Speaking of injuries, ponying up $3M to see what Michael Soroka can muster isn’t a bad move either. It seems like forever ago that Soroka’s breakout campaign transitioned into a very unfortunate cascade of injuries. Last year’s rebound attempt with the White Sox showed just enough to land a depth/swingman-type of role over 79.2 innings. Sure, the 4.74 ERA and 4.95 FIP/4.54 xFIP come nowhere close to his former potential in Atlanta but the Nats not quite being in contention serves as a decent interim landing spot. His command has yet to come around and whiffs don’t necessarily support a 24.2% strikeout rate going forward.
Washington’s rotation configuration has options and upside. Mackenzie Gore and a host of 1+ WAR up-and-comers provide a solid platform to see which direction to go in for 2026. Their volatility plus the unknown trajectories of guys like Trevor Williams and Michael Soroka make this group tough to pin down. Given their situation, the club did well wrangling enough arms to soak up Patrick Corbin’s 174.2 innings. Account for inexperienced depth via Cavalli and Rutledge and I’m looking at a 3-5 win reduction with upside if the reinforcements pull their weight.
— Bullpen —
Non-tendering closer Kyle Finnegan and middle reliever Tanner Rainey reflects ownership’s direction for the club. That said, there is ongoing contact with Finnegan here in mid-February. Rainey’s command issues and Finnegan’s declining effectiveness in high-leverage situations weren’t worth going to arbitration over. The bullpen’s mid-pack effort – also undermined by poor fielding – was buoyed by the likes of Robert Garcia, Derek Law, Dylan Floro, and Hunter Harvey. To their credit, Washington got the best of the latter two before shipping them at the trade deadline.
Moving on from left-handed specialist Robert Garcia in the Nathaniel Lowe trade makes sense in the taking our shot in 2026 context. Garcia probably means more to the Rangers this season than the Nats. So that leaves only Derek Law from the 2024 group of Washington’s notable relievers. Tempering Law’s expectations is key, especially coming off of a 90.0-inning season in which he slashed his walk rate (6.6%) and ERA (2.60). Some regression is to be expected back towards the 4.00 threshold considering last year’s 3.32 FIP/3.54 xFIP.
This is an intentionally “neglected” unit in this transitional 2025 season. Why overpay for relievers when you can see what young arms like Jose Ferrer, Eduardo Salazar, and Zach Brzykcy bring to the table? Journeyman addition Jorge Lopez should get opportunities to close out games along with Law as the Nats find out what their relievers can muster. When not in the rotation, 27-year-old NPB budget import Shinnosuke Ogasawara will be a much-needed lefty on the bulk side. Ogasawara could be one of the club’s many starters but figures as a long reliever as things sit today. For $3.5M his anemic strikeout rate in the NPB is worth a shot to GM Mike Rizzo. You never know what will shake out in a trial by error season. That said, our numbers make this year’s bullpen 1-3 wins worse.
WAGER: Nationals Under 71.5 Wins
Considering how much we hyped up the young outfield and maturing middle infield, how much margin could there possibly be for Washington to decline in 2025? It’s the pitching staff – especially the bullpen – that pencils out flat or negative to the Nationals’ win total per our projections. Upper 60s potential cuts it close but still leaves some meat on the bone. Not being able to close out close games is a key part of fading the win total; if the bullpen is sneaky good any edge goes up in smoke. The market is bracketing this win total between 70.5 and 72 and a couple respected futures bettors we speak to are more optimistic than we are. The Nats’ position at the trade deadline and how they set themselves up for 2026 is of particular interest when they could make some noise as their young talent fully ripens.
Miami Marlins 2025 Win Total: Open 65.5, Now 62.5
2024 Result: Under 77 (62-100 / Pythag: 61)
To say that the wheels fell off of Miami’s low-budget wagon is an understatement. Shaving 22 wins off of 2023’s total of 84 is mathematically similar to the rocky road that the Braves rode on without different causes. Last winter, it was front office head Kim Ng who said goodbye to the Marlins. Shortly thereafter, the selloff began in earnest with Luis Arraez getting shipped to the Padres. Nine more players were moved before the trade deadline – none of which show up in the “Offseason Personnel Changes” list below. Then manager Skip Schumaker gave his farewells months before Jesus Luzardo and Jake Burger were shipped out. Expectations are now reset with the Clayton McCullough era underway in South Florida.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- C Quantrill (SP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- J Luzardo (SP – LHP)
- J Burger (1B/3B)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 61 – 69
— Rotation —
Miami’s organizational strength has hinged on its starting pitching crop for a few years now. Only left-hander Trevor Rogers was dealt from this group last year, leaving a substantial talent pool that may or may not remain in the organization by the end of the 2025 campaign. Case in point: Jesus Luzardo was dealt to NL East rival Philadelphia right before Christmas. Rogers became expendable after failing to back up his 2021 breakout. Luzardo failed to stay healthy and was flipped for prospects like shortstop Staryln Caba who won’t impact the 2025 roster. Yet the Marlins are operating under the assumption there’s a full rotation to work with. So is it all upside for this group after ranking no better than 29th in WAR, ERA, FIP, K%, and BB%?
A Cautious Approach
Losing 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara as well as up-and-comer Eury Perez for the entire 2024 season due to Tommy John surgeries is one reason for the rotation’s putrid numbers. Both are rehabbing for 2025 returns to action with Sandy ready for Opening Day and Eury’s ETA around the All-Star Break. Alcantara justifiably resumes his position as ace but with tempered sub-4.00 expectations, a far cry from 2022’s 2.28 ERA. A cautious projection of 150 innings with his very effective sinker/slider/changeup combo should produce 3-4 WAR.
Sandy alone can top the rotation’s league-worst 1.6 WAR. But the group still needs to account for another 135+ starts – ideally, at an above-replacement value level. Fortunately, Jesus Luzardo’s replacement value is marginal after making only 12 starts in 2024 compared to what Alcantara returns with. Keep in mind that nobody on the current roster logged more than 100 innings as a starter last year. That includes southpaws Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers who spent plenty of time on the IL. In fact, the only pitchers on the roster with more than 20 starts and 100 innings in any MLB season are Alcantara and Garrett. And now Garrett will be out for the entire 2025 season due to internal brace surgery.
Weathers’ ground ball approach should keep him around the 4.00 mark in the 1-2 WAR window with a conservative 120-150 inning workload. Gains from Edward Cabrera’s curve and slider were modest but his fastball and changeup took turns for the worse. The result: a considerable spike in hard hit (45.7%) and home run (18.3% HR/FB) rates. Setback or bump in the road? Command issues notwithstanding, Cabrera is expected to get back around the 4.00 mark like Weathers, though the downside risk is greater than his upside in 2025. Back of the envelope valuation for the Alcantara/Weathers/Cabrera group ranges from 4-8 WAR. There’s arguably more uncertainty in their volumes than effectiveness at this point.
Making Ends Meet
There’s no shortage of unproven arms to pull into the fold. As noted above, 21-year-old Eury Perez is expected to return for the second half with sub-4.00 projections supported by his impressive secondary pitches. Until then, the upper-4.00s Cal Quantrill may fill the near-term need along with Max Meyer, Adam Mazur, and Robby Snelling getting their time to shine. Meyer currently sits on the projected Opening Day roster after making 11 starts in 2024 with little to show for it (5.68 ERA, 5.90 FIP/4.43 xFIP). It would take injury or a brutal Spring Training to knock him off after the Luzardo trade and Garrett injury.
The knock on Adam Mazur coming up through the system is an iffy fastball which, in fact, graded out as the worst pitch in his brief 8-start debut. Plus Valente Bellozzo and Robby Snelling look like the call up in case of emergency types heading into the season. The thinning herd may accelerate that. I’m not saying 2025 is a throwaway year for this young crop but the last thing the Marlins want is to have them in the rotation before producing in AAA. Yet it is hard not to forecast a 4+ win improvement after a disastrous 2024 season, even with such conservative innings projections for everyone. A rock solid Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez’ successful second half return are keys to realizing this potential.
— Bullpen —
Miami’s relief corps was hit hard by the midseason trade frenzy. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. After all, what’s the point of locking down the late innings with a 40-68 record on August 1st? Leverage arms Tanner Scott and AJ Puk were sent to greener pastures, as were Bryan Hoeing, Huascar Brazoban, and JT Chargois. Despite a pedestrian 4.15 ERA and 3.60 FIP/3.99 xFIP, the bullpen was valued a second-best 7.0 WAR. But it was more of a quantity vs. quality proposition with the league’s third-highest 652.1 innings worked.
To be frank, ballparking Miami’s relief unit after so much turnover requires a heaping dose of fuzzy math. Especially since the jettisoned Puk, Hoeing, Brazoban, and Chargois only accounted for 100.2 innings and 1.7 WAR in the bullpen. Only four relievers on today’s roster were in the Marlins organization for the entire season:
- Calvin Faucher (R) – 53.2 IP, 1.3 WAR; 3.19 ERA, 2.50 FIP/3.76 xFIP
- Anthony Bender (R) – 53.0 IP, 0.9 WAR; 4.08 ERA, 2.92 FIP/3.36 xFIP
- Andrew Nardi (L) – 49.2 IP, 0.7 WAR; 5.07 ERA, 3.33 FIP/3.35 xFIP
- Declan Cronin (R) – 70.1 IP, 1.3 WAR; 4.35 ERA, 2.58 FIP/3.43 xFIP
Returning To Their Strengths
Amazingly, the common theme with those four were ERAs exceeding their FIPs and significant WAR values. So the overarching projection to lose a couple wins from the bullpen is conservative but fair. Is Faucher’s strikeout rate spike legit? How will home run luck treat Bender and Cronin? Especially the latter who yielded just a single long ball in 70.1 innings last year. This is still a surprisingly solid core though.
The other half of the bullpen is made up of waiver wire pickups made throughout the 2024 season. The most notable being Jesus Tinoco, who was let go by the Rangers then the Cubs before landing in Miami where he put up career-best numbers. Granted, we’re only talking about 40.2 innings but his numbers earned him a spot in the high-leverage group: 27.4% hard contact, 12.3% whiffs, 2.03 ERA and 20.8 FIP/3.12 xFIP worth 0.8 WAR. Regression from a monster 6.00 K/BB ratio and .197 BABIP during his Marlins portion of the season still leaves enough on the bone for an upper-mid 3.00s projection.
There is plenty that can go awry with replacement level castoffs filling nearly half of the bullpen. The other waiver pickups Lake Bachar and Anthony Veneziano will be joined by the Marlins’ minor league talent to eat much-needed innings. And it is likely that at least one of the high-leverage guys fails to pull his end of the bargain. This unit drops just below average after losing 3-5 wins from the 2024 season. Regressing bullpens like this is part of the natural order.
— Position Players —
Swapping Luis Arraez for prospects in early May was one sign that Miami was less interested in the outcome of the 2024 season. Then went Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell, and Bryan De La Cruz, leaving behind a mishmash of a lineup that produced the MLB’s fourth-fewest 637 runs. That trio produced 45 of the team’s 150 HR last year – also 27th in the MLB – leaving a power outage in the remaining lineup. Or did it? Despite culling these bigger names from the roster, Miami actually found an offensive groove in the second half.
MIA Offensive Production, by Half (2024)
| HR/PA | BB% | K% | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 2.2% | 5.8% | 22.7% | .234/.284/.354 | 75 |
| 2nd Half | 2.8% | 7.8% | 24.2% | .259/.322/.412 | 102 |
| Season | 2.5% | 6.7% | 23.3% | .244/.300/.378 | 86 |
The Marlins turned in a more prolific second half as the likes of Jonah Bride, Xavier Edwards, Connor Norby, and Jesus Sanchez posted 107 or higher wRC+ after the break. Another key cog in this surprising uptick was corner infielder Jake Burger who slashed .279/.339/.562 down the stretch; apparently good enough to get shipped to Texas for prospects this winter. Unsurprisingly, Miami enters the 2025 campaign with a roster full of controllable players without much MLB service time.
25-year-old shortstop Xavier Edwards burst onto the scene in July, officially putting an end to the Tim Anderson experience in South Florida. The speedy, contact-hitting infielder helped churn the lineup with a .328/.397/.423 slash line and 31 stolen bases in 70 games. Naturally, the .398 BABIP that propped up his production should correct itself across the full season ahead. But not too much correction as his prospect profile supports being a high-BABIP hitter due to his skillset. Add in the expectation for fielding to improve out of liability status and Edwards stands to be the most valuable position player on the team. More playing time and scaled back production pencils out to a half- to full-win of increased value over 2024.
Exploring Their Returns
Trade deadline acquisitions Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers came from Baltimore in exchange for starting pitcher Trevor Rogers. They left the O’s talent-laden roster for a less prolific one with plenty of playing time opportunities. Infielder Connor Norby is slated to fill part or all of Jake Burger’s time at third base, albeit with less pop and some question as to whether he improves defenisvely at the hot corner. His high strikeout rate persisted from AAA into the Majors though. Left-handed outfielder Kyle Stowers finally got consistent playing time with the Marlins but also struggles with a 30%+ K rate, capping his projections around league average.
Nick Fortes is the real deal behind the plate, posting solid defensive numbers in two seasons as Miami’s primary backstop. Limitations with the bat are well known but the club’s ongoing lack of a true tandem partner could be addressed with touted prospect Agustin Ramirez. The 23-year-old two-way threat came from the Yankees organization in return for Jazz Chisholm Jr. last summer. Look for him to make his way onto the 26-man roster at some point and replace whatever stopgap solution there is behind Fortes.
Trial and Error
Whether it is speedy second baseman Otto Lopez or the non-Jesus Sanchez portion of the outfield, new manager Clayton McCullough has a lot on his plate with on-field evaluation. While Sanchez has established himself as a +10% bat with typical corner outfielder skills, McCullough has questions yet to be answered for the right and center field positions. Those options add enough variability to make projections difficult though. Defensive liabilities in the outfield Nick Gordon, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Bryan De La Cruz give way to players with slightly better fielding outlooks. Improving outfield defense by a tick and Xavier Edwards’ contributions at shortstop should halt the team’s gradual fielding decline over the last couple years.
Platoon options in the outfield join forces with former Cubs first base prospect Matt Mervis and other assorted pieces for a trial-and-error approach to the 2025 lineup card. Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Derek Hill, Dane Myers, and Javier Sanoja are the subject to change list that will evolve as the season wears on. Several wins of improvement across the position player group is natural after such a poor 2024 compilation. Whether that works out to be a 2% or as much as a 4% bump requires a little more work on our part to pin down for this rebuilding team.
2025 NL East Projected Standings
- Atlanta Braves (96-66)
- New York Mets (92-70)
- Philadelphia Phillies (91-71)
- Washington Nationals (67-95)
- Miami Marlins (64-98)
Turning Two
That’s two now in the books after dropping our AL Central preview last week. In just a few days Spring Training gets rolling in earnest. Be sure to check out the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for the entire preview series and in-season handicaps. Want updates when new posts drop? Follow us on X or subscribe below for email notifications:
