We’re becoming big fans of the AL Central after a correlated under/over win total pairing with Chicago and Minnesota got home. And that was one year removed from being rewarded for buying low on both Minnesota and Cleveland. (Don’t worry, this self-back slapping gives way to shame in the NL West preview.) How will the changing landscape of the 2024 AL Central treat us? The Guardians’ leadership change, goodbyes to familiar faces in Chicago, and progress in Kansas City’s and Detroit’s youth movement could shake things up a bit.
The blood, sweat, and tears continue with the BetCrushers’ 5th Annual Divisional Previews & Futures outlook for the 2024 MLB season. As always, we appreciate your support! Are they too much? Maybe. But the ends continue to justify the means, and we hope you’re able to make a few bucks along the way. (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)
2023 Division Winner: Minnesota Twins
2023 AL Central Final Standings
- Minnesota Twins (87-75)
- Detroit Tigers (78-84)
- Cleveland Guardians (76-86)
- Chicago White Sox (61-101)
- Kansas City Royals (56-106)
Minnesota Twins 2024 Win Total: Open 85, Now 86
2023 Result: Over 81.5 (87-75 / Pythag: 93)
As far as I’m concerned, Minnesota’s 2023 campaign was a success. They beat the books’ preseason win total with a few extra wins tacked on after squeezing over the 2022 mark. Last season’s effort was a little less sweaty as their division foes failed to pressure the Twins. And that was perfectly fine with me – Minnesota cashed another futures ticket. Their success wasn’t confined to the regular season either. Another small step for this Twins club that captured a Wild Card Series win over the Blue Jays, snapping an 18-game playoff losing streak. They’re priced as the AL Central favorite once again, and justifiably so.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- J Topa (RP – RHP)
- A DeSclafani (RHP)
- C Santana (1B)
- J Jackson (RP – RHP)
- S Okert (RP – LHP)
Subtractions:
- S Gray (SP – RHP)
- M Taylor (CF)
- K Maeda (SP – RHP)
- D Solano (INF)
- E Pagan (RP – RHP)
- J Gallo (1B/OF)
- T Mahle (SP – RHP)
- J Polanco (2B)
- N Gordon (INF)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 88 – 91
— Position Players —
Sustained offensive success is not something the Twins have been known for in some time. Yet they managed to string together a second straight top ten season at the plate behind the third-most home runs in the league (233). Approaching 2024 with essentially a carbon copy of last year’s position player roster puts Minnesota in position for another bountiful run scoring campaign. It was a boom-or-bust year – as noted by this habitual Twins backer – as the lineup powered its way into the postseason with the seventh-best slugging percentage (.428) and highest strikeout rate (26.6%).
Manager Rocco Baldelli stuck with the station-to-station approach to run production that proved successful in 2022, once again finishing in the lower tier for stolen bases and overall base running. What stands out to me is how wide Rocco’s roster went with its power. No single player smacked 25 or more home runs. Instead, twelve different Twins hit 10 or more bombs. That could soften the blow of losing two of their bigger home run contributors: outfielders Michael A Taylor and Joey Gallo. As for trading longtime Twin Jorge Polanco, well, we’ll get into that shortly.
Assembling the Crew
Carlos Correa aside, the Twins staring lineup represents the organization’s ability to crank out big league talent. Remaining mainstays Max Kepler and Byron Buxton were joined recently by the likes of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Ryan Jeffers from the farm system. An impressive rookie season from Matt Wallner and much-needed rebound year for Alex Kiriloff rendered the left-handed hitting Gallo expendable after a wonky .177/.301/.440 year now typical of the former Rangers standout.
Parking Kiriloff at first base proved tough defensively, making the Carlos Santana signing especially worth while. Both Kiriloff and Wallner had dramatic handedness splits fit for a platoon against left handed pitching. The more even-keeled bats of flexible bench players Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro help pick up that slack. While Kiriloff may have a new plus-10% baseline, Wallner’s half season of 144 wRC+ productivity should dip as he takes on a greater workload and fights a 30%+ strikeout rate. Both lefties project to maintain their combined value in 2024 while losing Joey Gallo’s 0.7 WAR.
Third baseman Royce Lewis’ return from a torn ACL went about as well as it could have gone. Well, other than losing a month to the IL for an oblique strain. The right-hander slashed a meaty .309/.372/.548 with reverse splits. I’ll probably correct for more even splits going forward with a 15-25% drop offensively. Designated hitter/infielder Edouard Julien’s rookie season was quite fruitful as well. But he could face headwinds alongside Lewis after both benefitted from .350+ BABIPs. Expectations for more prominent roles gives me confidence to replace their value with some upside.
Firing Off the Big Guns
The Carlos Correa era in the Twin Cities started with a bang then quickly simmered to a .230/.312/.399 season worth a career-low 1.1 WAR. Will his struggles be short-lived considering last year’s 45.9% hard hit and 22.6% strikeout rates? A BABIP about 30-40 points short of his baseline surely did not help. Moving on from a bout with plantar fasciitis is positive momentum towards the 2x All-Star recovering 2-3 wins of value in 2024.
In past seasons I’ve considered Jorge Polanco the “glue guy” of the lineup, bridging their better on-base guys with the RBI thumpers. I personally don’t like to see Polanco gone but the club was in a position of strength to obtain more pitching. Plus they had a legitimate substitute in Edouard Julien emerge as their 2+ WAR plus bat at second base. That leaves Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Max Kepler as the veteran leaders of this talented roster. Their role as the meaty 3-4-5 portion of the lineup is mostly health-dependent at this point but comfortably around plus-15%.
It’s been seven years since dynamic centerfielder Byron Buxton played 100 games and now stunt double Michael A Taylor is out of the mix. Word on the street is Buxton will be the Twins’ regular in center…but how long will this last? Expectations for the 2012 overall #2 draft pick are muted, both in playing time and offensive production. Willi Castro should continue to be part of the formula out there after showing incredible positional flexibility. With that said, I don’t see any reason to make notable adjustments to Minnesota’s perennial mid-pack defense other than a small upgrade at first base.
The Balancing Act
Continuity behind the plate is a plus with veteran Christian Vasquez and Ryan Jeffers. The 3.6-WAR duo held down the position on their own, finishing the season inside the top ten both offensively and defensively. Projections have these two coming back towards their baselines after going in opposite directions. Jeffers had a power surge asterisked with a .359 BABIP while Vasquez was hamstrung by a 7% spike in strikeouts and uncharacteristically low .279 BABIP. Defense and framing should remain positive, especially with a Jeffers rebound in those areas.
Injuries could continue to be Minnesota’s Achilles’ heel with Byron Buxton asked to log more innings in center field. An aging core coupled with the injury histories of Alex Kiriloff and Royce Lewis help cast that shadow on the club. Last year, Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro filled in admirably at a number of positions to offset time lost to injury. It’s safe to say their 2023 combined 4.1 WAR is more or less topped out for role players. Extended playing time in 2024 probably means one thing: injuries have slowed down the Twins offense. And that could mean trouble as negative regression is staring some of their hitters right in the eyes. I like this roster quite a bit, but have to mark down the offense a small amount with emphasis against their right-handed pitching splits.
— Rotation —
Enthusiasm with the Twins taking the division and breaking the playoff drought extended from the lineup to their sneakily elite rotation. Tops in strikeouts (26.3%), fourth in innings pitched (895.0), and the second-highest value (16.5 WAR) just about says it all. The work-in-progress 2022 rotation required ten pitchers to fill in behind the primary four of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. In contrast, last season featured Gray, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan with 26+ starts each while Kenta Maeda made 20 upon return from Tommy John rehab.
Doubling production from the 2022 was impossible without the 64 starts of Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez. Gray’s intentional preseason preparation and the addition of Lopez via trade last winter yielded a massive 378.0 innings between at 9.8 WAR. That was 1.6 wins better than the entire 2022 rotation! ERA, FIP, strikeouts, and workload all improved significantly. But with Sonny headed downriver to St. Louis, who fills in his 5.3-WAR gap?
Making Do With What You Have
You have to start by gauging confidence in right-hander Pablo Lopez coming back with another 4+ WAR campaign. Depends on who you ask but my trusted projectors are right around that mark. Minnesota’s ace progressively upped his workload while posting mid-3.00s ERA, FIP, and xFIP going back to the 2020 season. Pablo’s five pitch arsenal continued to be plus across the board and hasn’t shown signs of weakening. Should we question the career-high 29.2% strikeout and 14.5% swinging strike rates? Maybe.
Capable #2s Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan thrived in their third seasons as starting pitchers. Workload went up as each righty’s innings per start rose to 5.5. These guys have strong swing-and-miss stuff but lag Pablo in potency when it comes to the secondaries. More favorable home run luck for Ryan should keep these two in the same 4.6-WAR ballpark as last season. That and adding another notch to their workloads helps keep this rotation afloat in Sonny Gray’s absence.
With about six weeks until Opening Day, it is unclear whether Louie Varland will begin in the rotation after a second season in the majors. Six of his ten starts extended past the fifth inning but a 5.30 ERA as starter relegated him to AAA once Kenta Maeda returned to the 26-man roster for good. He’ll need to get the home run monkey off of his back (2.12 HR/9 IP) to settle into low-4.00s productivity and churn out value. Plus the Twins have a major unknown with Chris Paddack after missing all but the fringes of the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. That makes projecting him so tough – whether it’s workload, rotation/bullpen split service, or which side of 4.00 he ends up on.
It would take a low probability scenario to repeat as a top-three unit so I’m adjusting them firmly on the right side of average after shedding 2-4 wins. There is an insurance policy at least. Improved depth through the Polanco trade came via experienced starter turned swingman Anthony DeSclafani. He could begin the season as the #5 starter and/or jump in as a key sixth man in case the likes of Simon Woods Richardson, left-hander Brent Headrick, and organization #3 prospect David Festa aren’t ready for action. Either way you cut it, DeSclafani is a decent safety net under the uncertainty of Paddack and Varland.
— Bullpen —
Can the Twins’ middling bullpen get better without any signings to bolster it or replace Emilio Pagan? As far as I’m concerned, the answer is yes. But it’s a conditional yes. Closer Jhoan Duran has the top-end heater and filthy curve fit for a powerful finish to the game. His setup men Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart tag teamed the late innings well last season with different methods to attacking hitters. Jax excels at generating weak ground ball contact while Stewart reinvented himself with a major velo bump and newfound cutter. After accounting for a small pullback from insane 35.8% strikeout and 19.2% swinging strike rates, a full season in the bullpen will go a long way toward keeping the Twins’ high-leverage group around the 3-WAR threshold.
Losing Emilio Pagan’s 65 appearances puts more emphasis on a healthy Caleb Thielbar, a Jorge Alcala bounceback, and/or Jay Jackson to fight off regression. Pagan skated by with a .221 BABIP and extremely fortunate home run luck as a fly ball pitcher (2.99 ERA, 3.27 FIP/4.57 xFIP) – something that my Cincinnati Reds will have to reckon with this season. Need answers to tough left-handed hitters? Southpaws Caleb Thielbar, rookie Kody Funderburk, and Steven Okert should provide them. Although time will tell how Funderburk grinds through the 2024 season after an excellent debut buoyed by a .238 BABIP.
Questionable arms like Cole Sands and Jordan Balazovic get shoved to the side as swingman Anthony DeSclafani and breakout reliever Justin Topa join the bullpen. Topa’s full season of 2.61 ERA, 3.15 FIP/3.55 xFIP points toward less spectacular, yet valuable middle relief for Minnesota. Bolstering the group helps to deal with Caleb Thielbar aging and Jorge Alcala fighting to put together a full season free of significant injury. Even so, middle relief depth is a concern to monitor as the year goes on. Heading into the season I’m approaching the Minnesota bullpen using 2023 as their baseline with conditional upside.
Detroit Tigers 2024 Win Total: Open 78, Now 80.5
2023 Result: Over 70 (78-84 / Pythag: 73)
If the Tigers sneaking into second place doesn’t speak to the state of the 2023 AL Central, what does? No disrespect to Detroit by any means. But their preseason positioning as the fourth or fifth best club in the division per win total expectation says more about the likes of Cleveland and Chicago being complete letdowns. The numbers guy in me also looks at their 73-win pythag figure and says, so what’s the real baseline for this squad? When it comes to their place in the 2024 AL Central, the early read from oddsmakers puts them right back in the thick of things. And the market called for more.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- K Maeda (SP – RHP)
- A Chafin (RP – LHP)
- J Flaherty (SP – RHP)
- S Miller (RP – RHP)
- J Staumont (RP – RHP)
Subtractions:
- E Rodriguez (SP – LHP)
- M Boyd (SP – LHP)
- J Cisneros (RP – RHP)
- J Schoop (INF)
- S Turnbull (SP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 73 – 77
— Rotation —
Detroit’s rotation was one of the most handcuffed by injuries last season. Granted, the impact on games won was limited by the talent of those injured players. Cumulative impacts of Matt Manning fracturing his foot twice, 2018 #1 overall pick Casey Mize rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and Tarik Skubal missing the first half recovering from flexor tendon surgery were enough to keep the rotation from being a top ten unit. But the Skubal comeback fired up on Independence Day, culminating in the best starting pitcher performance from July 4th onward. The lefty’s 3.3 WAR, 2.00 FIP, and 2.56 xFIP topped starters with 30 IP or greater. Sure, Tarik’s 2.80 ERA put him 16th in line but the future is bright for him and the Tigers rotation in 2024.
Tarik Skubal maintaining that level of effectiveness in twice as many starts is where things start to break down. Low-to-mid-3.00s at that workload should tack on value to the rotation. But any injury that keeps him in the 20-25 start range probably means status quo in the WAR department. The Tigers will take that as long as his velo and command are maintained.
What to do about losing Eduardo Rodriguez though? How about a pair of free agent signings? 35-year-old Kenta Maeda does not quite fill his shoes considering Eduardo’s rebound from a poor 2022. Eduardo’s 26 starts and 3.0 WAR are aspirational, at best, for a pitcher who hasn’t cracked 150 innings since he left L.A. Former Cardinal standout, The other half of these signings, Jack Flaherty, was tapped to join the Tigers a couple weeks after Maeda was. Jack’s first 20+ start campaign since breaking out in 2019 should reset his baseline at the low-to-mid-4.00s. 300 innings around the 3 WAR mark is a decent expectation for this incoming pair.
Detroit’s Unsung Heroes?
The next wave of young arms represented by Matt Manning and Reese Olson combined for 33 starts and 1.8 WAR last season. Undoubtedly, pitching coach Chris Fetter wants to squeeze another 5-10 starts out of both youngsters in 2024. At least the Maeda and Flaherty signings take some of the pressure off of these two. Olson’s MLB debut was more than adequate, yielding 18 starts at 3.99 ERA and 4.01 FIP/3.91 xFIP. Greater workload overcompensates for the snapback from a .255 BABIP to provide an extra half-win of value to the rotation.
Unfortunately, Manning’s lack of injury luck hampers most scenarios for significant improvement. More workload, sure. And you have to like the trend of using an improved slider a bit more often. My key concerns with a Matt Manning breakout hinge on shaking off 2023’s 4.81 FIP/5.33 xFIP and .214 BABIP. More whiffs and less hard contact will help the cause to the tune of a half-win or so improvement.
Interesting Depth
Expect a healthy Casey Mize to factor into Detroit’s quest to crack 850 innings from the rotation. The 2023 group’s 786.2 innings were 24th in the MLB. Casey’s 2021 season is our only real benchmark to work from, in which he produced a 3.71 ERA and 4.71 FIP/4.37 xFIP over a full 30 starts. But Mize was essentially a 5-inning guy at that point and the Detroit bullpen could use a little more length from the starters. Projections pinning him in the mid-4.00s range fall into the Matthew Boyd area of effectiveness – certainly a tier above Alex Faedo/Joey Wentz territory. Those two will likely be called back into the rotation for various reasons unless the prospect pipeline cranks out some new blood in a hurry.
Keep an eye on former Twins farmhand Sawyer Gipson-Long. The 26-year-old showed off his deep arsenal in 4 big league starts last season. Assuming he continues to sharpen his secondary pitches this spring, Gipson-Long has a good chance to become a regular on the MLB roster. Perhaps not as good of a chance in 2024 with the offseason veteran signings though. Some bullpen work, some in the rotation is what to expect for now. As much as things looks bright for Detroit’s rotation, I’m pumping my brakes and keeping them in the same ballpark as last year.
— Bullpen —
The 2024 bullpen could be sneaky good…or at least better than the previous version. Last season wasn’t nearly as sharp as the year before that mainly due to selling off a few key pieces in the interim. From a pure WAR perspective, retaining their high-leverage core essentially keeps all of the productive relievers in Detroit. Signing veteran left-hander Andrew Chafin – member of Detroit’s noteworthy 2022 bullpen – and righty Shelby Miller creates a better bridge between bulk arms and late-innings guys. The 33-year-olds might be in the sunset of their careers but have roles to play. Chafin is a much needed lefty who can produce in the upper-3.00s while Miller is more of a 4.00+ type.
DET Key Returning Relievers (2023 statistics)
| IP | K/BB | BABIP | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Foley (R) | 69.0 | 3.67 | .310 | 2.61 | 2.73/3.51 | 1.5 |
| W Vest (R) | 44.2 | 4.15 | .289 | 3.22 | 2.58/3.19 | 1.0 |
| T Holton (L) | 84.1 | 4.29 | .213 | 2.13 | 3.55/3.75 | 0.9 |
| A Lange (R) | 66.0 | 1.76 | .243 | 3.68 | 4.36/4.38 | -0.1 |
| BP TOTAL | 655.2 | 2.03 | .291 | 4.16 | 4.08/4.17 | 3.2 |
Mixed projections among ZIPS (higher) and Steamer (lower) required even more hair splitting with this group. That’s the sort of thing that can drive you crazy, especially when it comes to marginal groups like this. But the difference of 1.5 wins for a bullpen’s expectation is not something to blow off. Alex Lange stumbled as the team’s primary closer, seeing a 4.2% jump in walks and 3.5% drop in swinging strike rate. Jason Foley continued his track record as a ground ball command specialist while Will Vest may have established a solid low-to-mid-3.00s foundation.
The back end’s wild card just might be left-hander Tyler Holton. His MLB debut playing the long man role was quite impressive. 84.1 innings over 58 relief appearances is strong no matter how you cut it. But a .213 BABIP and 3.55 FIP/3.75 xFIP calls into question his noteworthy 2.13 ERA. After a little give and take, this half of the bullpen should retain most of last year’s value with Chafin adding another nudge higher as a reliable lefty option. Miguel Diaz has not seen much action since joining the team in 2022, Beau Brieske figures to increase his workload, and rotation afterthoughts Wentz and Faedo could end up as low-4.00s innings eaters. Clawing back above league average is a possibility for the Tigers bullpen, however, my preseason numbers will pick up around where this group left off.
— Position Players —
Out of all my offseason reading, Dan Szymborski’s snarky narratives often take the cake. His ZIPS projection piece for the Tigers described the position player group as a “lot of interesting players, most with actual upside“. As opposed to the widespread turnover facing the club going into the 2023 season, Detroit returns plenty of familiar faces to the fold in 2024. That’s both good and bad. The Tigers lineup was indeed more productive than the prior season, yet still bottom five in wRC+ and all three of the slash line components. With nearly an identical BABIP across both seasons, Detroit tacked on 55 home runs, 94 runs, and 19 points of OBP. That is certainly something to grow on. More specifically, the offense’s second half is something to grow on.
DET Lineup 1st Half/2nd Half Comparison (2023)
| Gm | HR/Gm | R/Gm | Slash Line | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 89 | .92 | 3.89 | .231/.300/.367 | 83 |
| 2nd Half | 73 | 1.14 | 4.32 | .242/.311/.399 | 95 |
As someone who was born and raised in the midwest, I’d be foolish to write off April weather effects on hitting – especially slugging. And we do see a bigger proportional delta with slugging (8.7% increase) than batting average (+4.8%) and on-base percentage (+3.7%). This can’t be all related to weather, right? Putting Mother Nature aside, Spencer Torkelson’s second half surge has plenty to do with it. The 24-year-old’s slugging percentage popped from .402 to .498 across the All-Star Break. Good news for the Tiger faithful: some of the sharpest projection systems concur that 2nd Half Tork will be 2024 Tork.
We all know that injuries can hit any time to almost any player. That said, the Tigers have a great opportunity to surge forward with an improved offense. Most of this improvement comes via internal player progression. A rare outside infusion comes in the form of Mark Canha’s .350 OBP profile that spices up the fourth-worst on-base lineup. Tiger hitters manning left field were generally uninspiring so Canha figures to be a solid upgrade in the corner. Plus, Detroit stands to gain from the cliched addition by subtraction with Miguel Cabrera’s retirement. It’s a bit sacrilegious to think that way but the big fella’s 88 wRC+ last season gets a 20%-ish upgrade with someone like Kerry Carpenter in that role.
Rookie Parker Meadows appears to be in the running for the Tigers’ regular centerfielder job this season. This would push Riley Greene into the other corner after a disappointing defensive performance in center. Despite Canha’s insertion in the outfield, we’re realistically looking at a slight fielding upgrade on the grass to go with offensive improvements.
The Infield Scramble
It’s safe to say that first base is locked down with the team’s muscle, Spencer Torkelson. Shortstop is also accounted for with veteran Javier Baez and his meaty contract. In other words, Javy stuck the club with a $98M tab by exercising his option for the next four seasons. The guy may not be worth $25M, but my sliver lining view of the situation is one of “he can’t do any worse than last year”. That’s because Baez made a serious run at logging his worst offensive season since becoming an MLB regular with the Cubs. And that is tough form to replicate – if you’re trying not to. A 20% bump at the plate is a modest expectation.
Will swapping one sub-par backstop for another yield positive results? Fortunately, Jake Rogers nailed down the starting catcher job with strong improvement as a framer and a boom-or-bust .221/.286/.444 season at the plate. I see signs that the 28-year-old’s power will continue to decline for the second straight year though. Behind Rogers is former Diamondback Carson Kelly, who looks to rebound from a 56 wRC+. Either Kelly or Haase are prime candidates for an offensive rebound so another 10-20% from the backup catcher position would have been in the cards.
AJ Hinch has platoon and positional flexibility with his infielder soup. The skipper has his hands full with filling out the daily lineup card when you have a stable consisting of Andy Ibanez, Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Zach McKinstry. Granted, not all are suitable as regular denizens of the lineup. But options are good, right? Good enough to keep the infield afloat while their young stars continue to improve. Hell, the next wave of infield prospects, Jace Jung and Colt Keith, are knocking loudly at the door. In fact, second baseman Keith got paid this offseason and is expected to make the Opening Day roster. The numbers support the Detroit position player corps ratcheting up its offense while maintaining decent fielding.
Cleveland Guardians 2024 Win Total: Open 77, Now 78.5
2023 Result: Under 87 (76-86 / Pythag: 77)
The Cleveland dugout will have a different feel to it after Terry Francona’s 11 years of leadership comes to an end. Father Time is undefeated, after all, and Tito felt the effects of over two decades in the managerial biz. Was the Guardians’ fall as a perennial AL Central threat coincidentally aligned with the closure of Francona’s career? Maybe, maybe not. Now the club is at an inflection point with rookie manager Stephen Vogt taking over after a storybook ending to his playing career a couple years ago. In his final seasons with Oakland, Vogt was highly regarded as a leader who would make a good manager someday. That day is now…and the Guardians need him more than ever to get back into the AL Central driver’s seat.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- S Barlow (RP – RHP)
- A Hedges (C)
- B Lively (RHP)
Subtractions:
- K Calhoun (OF)
- M Zunino (C)
- C Gallagher (C)
- C Quantrill (SP – RHP)
- E De Los Santos (RP – RHP)
- O Gonzalez (OF)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 83 – 86
— Rotation —
Consistency was not a strong suit for the Guardians rotation last season as the club cycled through 13 different pitchers making 4+ starts. Undoubtedly, the club would like to forget the brief, rocky tenures of Lucas Giolito and Noah Syndergaard. Ace Shane Bieber spent a couple months toward the tail end of the season on the IL while Triston McKenzie was sidelined for all but a few rough weeks. But wait, there’s more. Supporting cast members Cal Quantrill and Aaron Civale combined for 141 IL days before the latter was traded to Tampa Bay. Needless to say, Stephen Vogt is looking for a little help from the injury gods to keep his rotation afloat this season.
A good place to start is Cleveland’s impressive young crop of 24/25-year-old starting pitchers. Not only did Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams make their MLB debuts last season, they carried a significant portion of the load. The trio accounted for 40% of the rotation’s starts and innings pitched, as well as 55% of its WAR value. For all intents and purposes, the Guardians’ pitching depth was called upon early and often with decent success. That impromptu on-the-job training should pay dividends as these rookies transition into regular roles in the Opening Day rotation.
CLE’s “Young 3” Starting Pitchers (2023)
| Starts | IP | K/BB | ERA | FIP/xFIP | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T Bibee (R) | 25 | 142.0 | 3.13 | 2.98 | 3.52/4.22 | 3.0 |
| L Allen (L) | 24 | 125.1 | 2.48 | 3.81 | 4.19/4.28 | 1.7 |
| G Williams (R) | 16 | 82.0 | 2.19 | 3.29 | 4.05/4.53 | 1.1 |
It goes without saying that this stout batch of young starters will have to face the music of sophomore expectations. Although there’s no guarantee that any or all of them take a step back, the classic ERA well below FIP and xFIP points in that direction – at least for Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams. Left-hander Logan Allen didn’t necessarily have the best stuff but managed to grind though 24 starts at a decent level for a rookie. Williams was called up later than his cohorts and is expected to face some BABIP headwinds over the course of a longer season ahead.
Tanner Bibee was lauded as the most MLB-ready of the group given his pedigree in the Cal State Fullerton program. As opposed to Williams and Allen, Bibee showed off better stuff all around. His mid-90s fastball and nice secondary slider/changeup pairing earned 3.0 WAR. The righty pitched fairly deep into games too – a positive sign of what’s to come in the 2024 campaign. I tend towards the optimistic side for this trio in their year twos. General regression toward the 4.00 mark with greater workload should replace their 2023 values with 1-2 WAR of upside.
Holding the Line
The looming threat of longtime ace Shane Bieber being traded in his final year of team control is a key consideration in the handicap. Injury is one thing, diminished effectiveness is another. Aside from his 2018 rookie season, he put up career-worst 3.80 ERA and 3.87 FIP/3.96 xFIP. Nothing seemed consistently sharp last year. Not his low-90s fastball. His dependable secondaries? Not even close to what we expect out of them – especially that hallmark slider. The 28-year-old’s track record tells us that Bieber’s game is more control-focused than it was in his 2020 Cy Young season, which is fine as long as his stuff sharpens up and hard contact reduced. The Cleveland ace should add 1-2 WAR if the 30-start plateau can be reached once again.
Lanky 26-year-old Triston McKenzie is itching to return to 2022 form after dodging the Tommy John bullet. The righty dazzled hitters with a wicked fastball/curveball combo in that 30-start season before effectively missing last year. It’s the sort of thing that clouds his projections – i.e., is he a high-3.00s or a mid-4.00s pitcher? Assuming 20+ starts, Triston’s value comes in around 1.5 – 3.0 WAR. Talk about unknowns!
With Cal Quantrill dealt out of depth this winter, Xzavion Curry is in line to serve as the sixth man out of Columbus. After all, young arms and recurring injury issues may have Vogt calling on Curry more than the manager would prefer. Signing former Cincinnati swingman Ben Lively also helps the cause. To a degree, all three of these guys are fairly interchangeable mid-to-upper-4.00s depth pieces. It could be worse. And it might head in that direction with a slow start and resulting divestiture of Shane Bieber. The Cleveland rotation should gain a win or two over 2023, but the downside risk of losing Bieber for the second half has me planning for overall status quo.
— Bullpen —
Emmanuel Clase & Co.’s fall from elite status to a crowded pack was far from a surprise. Part of it was an efficiency regression thing. The rest, well, that’s bullpens for you. Even fellow 2022 elite Houston fell from grace along with Cleveland. Both tacked on another 40ish innings along the way too – a phenomenon that swept across the league for the most part.
But the ability to work the fifth-least innings goes a long way toward keeping relievers fresh. Their 3.39 FIP was 5th in the majors and 3.47 xFIP second only to the Houston Astros. Not bad. Plus their 51 saves and 43 wins both ranked second in the MLB.
2023 AL Central Futures Preview – BetCrushers.com – February 13, 2023
The Guardians bullpen wasn’t terrible by any means. They turned a slightly positive 37-34 record and still nailed down the sixth-most (47) saves. But the bad news is those saves modestly outpaced the MLB’s third-most blown saves (32). That’s 15 more blown saves and 15 more losses than in 2022. Talk about anything but clutch.
It Starts At the Top
Clase undoubtedly cooled off from back-to-back top-tier seasons amongst all MLB relievers. The 25-year-old still earned workhorse status with a third straight season of 69.2 innings or more and his 44 saves were tops in the league. However, 12 blown saves ranked as the worst and 9 losses tied for third-most. The late innings were the best of times and the worst of times in Cleveland. So where to go with Emmanuel in 2024 then? The outlook is mixed depending on the source – somewhere in the 3.00+ neighborhood – because we’re not sure if his disappointing strikeouts, BABIP, ground ball rate, and hard hit rate were bottoms or more indicative of continued struggles.
Veteran innings-eater Scott Barlow joins the crew to fill the dependable guy role vacated by Enyel De Los Santos. His closer experience in Kansas City bodes well for a complementary support role to Clase despite being a 4.00-FIP arm at this point. Plus Barlow pairs nicely with mid-3.00s lefty Sam Hentges to form a 2-3 WAR back end trio. That’s still a win or two shy of last season’s modest value though.
Picking up that slack with middle relief can be a tall task. Fourth year major leaguers Eli Morgan, Trevor Stephan, and James Karinchak offer a collective 1-WAR value. Not bad if the goal is to stay afloat in 2024. They are 60-inning, 4.00-FIP relievers for the most part. Now the arithmetic starts to look like a break even scenario compared to last year with some allowance for the downside.
— Position Players —
Now we come to an area of weakness where notable gains could be made. The 2022 Guardians position player corps had plenty of success both at the plate and in the field. But things were quite different last year, making that season look like an outlier. Cleveland was active on the base paths, swiping the fifth-most bases (151) at the league-average 80% rate. They hit for a decent .250 average but simply did not score enough runs. 662 runs ranked 27th in the MLB due to a pure lack of power: .381 slugging ranked next to the bottom and 124 home runs was dead last. So if their pitching is expected to be mid-pack again this season, how does Cleveland’s lineup get the club over the hump in a vulnerable AL Central?
Step 1: Get More From the Young Guns
Amed Rosario getting shipped to the Dodgers last summer opened the door to the shortstop position. The veteran turned back into a pumpkin after a strong couple years at the plate for the Guardians and what appears to be a misleading strong fielding season in 2022. In his stead, utility man Gabriel Arias and top prospect Brayan Rocchio had limited success from August onward. Rocchio’s brief introduction to the big leagues was less than noteworthy but stopped the defensive bleeding left by Rosario.
The beauty of the shortstop group’s efforts is that it doesn’t take much to improve on -0.5 WAR. Switch-hitting Rocchio’s .280/.367/.421 line across 537 AAA plate appearances before his call-up paints more of a 90 wRC+ picture than in his brief MLB stint. Even modest fielding coupled with that type of bat gains a win or more at that position. Utility man Gabriel Arias hit the ball hard but struck out a ton, yet still offers valuable depth. Growing pains are part of the process for these 23-year-olds so my expectations are tempered.
Catcher Bo Naylor showed us a lot about his game in his rookie season. Base runners didn’t fear him too much but the up-and-comer was generally fine behind the plate. His bat picked up where it left off in Columbus, making for modest regression washed out by becoming the featured backstop this season. Defense-first Austin Hedges returns to town as a veteran backup – he’s rough at the plate but has value. Naylor/Hedges adds 1-2 WAR over Naylor/Zunino/Gallagher. Now we’re getting somewhere.
Step 2: Let the Big Dogs Eat
Bo’s big brother Josh Naylor seems to have established a nice 120-ish wRC+ baseline via the last couple seasons. Sure, .308/.354/.489 probably isn’t attainable again due to a .326 BABIP. But 2 WAR bouncing between first base and DH? You bet. Plus Tampa Bay top prospect Kyle Manzardo is in line to get work at first base, potentially adding support as a disciplined contact hitter.
Speaking of discipline, five-time All-Star Jose Ramirez saw his slugging drop below .500 for just the second in the last seven seasons. My concern is less about him finding that lost power and more about losing his defense edge at the age of 31. His 6-WAR days may be over, but coming back with 5 is a fair expectation. Andres Gimenez returns to second base with a plus-10% bat and damn good fielding – almost like the infield version of 2022 phenom Steven Kwan. And all three of these guys can do damage on the base paths.
Step 3: Search For a Four-Leaf Clover
The glaring issue outside of the veil of uncertainty surrounding the inexperienced guys is center field. Myles Straw has been nothing short of a disappointment since joining the team in summer 2021 (.239/309/.302). Until last year, stellar fielding defense took much of the edge off of his anemic bat. He’s on the Billy Hamilton trajectory at this point. Can Myles be worse offensively in 2024? That might be a tougher ask than actually improving a few percent. It’s the low points set by Ramirez, Kwan, and Gimenez that get me to a small upgrade of the Guardians offense with higher weighting against left-handed pitchers via Jose’s rebound.
Good thing fellow hustle player Ramon Laureano is back with the club to help in the outfield. Especially since it might take a little more time for prospect George Valera to develop. And guys with minimal MLB experience like Estevan Florial and Will Brennan aren’t locks to be suitable replacements for Straw. Oscar Gonzalez took his tough luck and negative fielding to the Yankees, so some combination of these outfielders should easily flip Oscar’s -1.5 WAR. Improving on the bad seasons in the field by Gonzalez and Amed Rosario along with Austin Hedges as backup catcher should give Cleveland a shot in the arm defensively.
WAGER: Guardians Over 77.5 Wins (BetUS) / ALT: 78.5 Wins (CZR)
Nobody likes it when the content person (me) gives you the whole I got in on this number schtick. That’s why I listed the current low domestic price as an alternative to what might not be available to many. Now for why the over got my money. The position players have enough room to gain on both sides of the ledger. Although this does come with plenty of variance due to the sizable influence of younger, less experienced players. And the headwind created by the potential to deal former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber could cost them 2+ wins if he starts hot and nobody comes back in the trade to impact the team immediately. That possibility is baked into my projections, and still there’s a low-80s bottom to the win range that leaves enough meat on the bone to back the Guardians – even at 78.5.
Chicago White Sox 2024 Win Total: Open 64.5, Now 63
2023 Result: Under 84.5 (61-101 / Pythag: 61)
The same issues reared their ugly heads despite the White Sox bringing a new manager on board for the 2023 campaign. Injuries and poor defense sunk the team before the weather turned the corner in Chicago. A futures win is a futures win even though getting in early with an under 86.5 win total ticket didn’t matter after all. It was a well-timed consolation prize for San Diego letting me down even quicker! Has Jerry Reinsdorf and new general manager Chris Getz done enough to shake off such an ugly season? Perhaps. Has a new era arrived in time for the Southsiders or will the transition take longer than they would like?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- M Soroka (SP – RHP)
- N Lopez (INF)
- J Shuster (SP – RHP)
- P DeJong (INF)
- E Fedde (SP – RHP)
- M Stassi (C)
- M Maldonado (C)
- T Hill (RP – LHP)
- C Flexen (RHP)
- J Brebbia (RP – RHP)
- D Fletcher (OF)
Subtractions:
- M Clevinger (SP – RHP)
- E Andrus (INF)
- B Shaw (RP – RHP)
- Y Grandal (C)
- L Hendriks (RP – RHP)
- H Alberto (INF)
- T Anderson (SS)
- L Garcia (INF)
- A Bummer (RP – LHP)
- G Santos (RP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 58 – 69
— Rotation —
Dylan Cease and Co. scratched their way to a bottom third ranking that was anything but the ace’s fault. The 28-year-old righty wasn’t quite as sharp as usual, yet he still represented nearly half of the rotation’s net value. Cease’s strikeout rate slumped by 3.1% and he was touched up for 41.5% hard contact. As Malachi Hayes of SouthSideSox.com succinctly wrote, Dylan “doesn’t have his slider”. His money pitch eluded him plus a .330 BABIP made things tougher than they had to be. The good news is that Cease’s 4.58 ERA came with a more palatable 3.72 FIP/4.08 xFIP. But the bad news is that the White Sox probably won’t realize much of his upcoming gains. A trade of Dylan Cease to reload their mid-tier farm system could happen any day now.
An Offseason Makeover
Three of Chicago’s four most productive starting pitchers aside from Dylan Cease are out the door. In the case of Lance Lynn (21 starts, 119.2 IP) and Lucas Giolito (21 starts, 121.0 IP), those moves came at the trade deadline. Mike Clevinger (24 starts, 131.1 IP) declined his $12M option in search of greener pastures. That’s a total of 66 starts and 4.5 WAR off the books. The holes left in their wake prompted the front office to pull some strings and add fuel to its dimly-lit fire via the Aaron Bummer trade with Atlanta. In comes a pair of former first-round picks Mike Soroka and Jared Shuster.
Shuster will most likely spend a majority of the 2024 season in Triple-A Charlotte. Soroka, on the other hand, is a guy that the White Sox desperately need to stay healthy and produce for six months. That’s easier said that done for the once-promising Braves star. At this point in his injury-riddled career, 20 starts at mid-4.00s effectiveness is a reasonable expectation worth around 1 WAR.
That level of production from Soroka is almost a must with heavy doubts surrounding Michael Kopech. Is the hard-throwing 27-year-old cooked? He completely lost control of his fastball last season, resulting in a whopping 15.4% walk rate and 2.02 home runs per 9 innings. It’s almost as if sub-5.00 seasons are now a thing of the past. But the White Sox have not given up on him, especially if it’s a matter of fixing his mental state. Talk about variance in projecting him though. Is he a respectable #3 pitcher like in 2022 or well below replacement level like 2023?
Formulating a Plan B
What happens if Michael Soroka cannot stay healthy or if Michael Kopech melts down even further? Lean even harder on two veterans looking for fresh starts. Chris Flexen bounced from Seattle to Colorado last season after a push to resurrect his career began to slip away. Things looked positive after Flexen returned from a one-year KBO stint in 2020 but the contact pitcher has struggled of late. As a result, projections range from high-4.00s to mid-5.00s much like fellow newcomer Erick Fedde. He just returned from the KBO to reboot his MLB career after several seasons with the Nationals. The edict is clear for these righties: give us starts and eat some innings.
The White Sox will undoubtedly dip into the reserve stockpile of starting pitchers throughout the 2024 season. Touki Toussaint is a middle reliever with control issues who has filled in when needed. He’s more of a break glass in case of fire spot starter though. It’s the Triple-A crew that holds the most interesting Plan B types to backfill Chicago’s starting five. Pitch-to-contact righties Jesse Scholtens and Jared Shuster didn’t dazzle in their MLB debuts but figure to play a role in the rotation at some point. Shuster was part of the Aaron Bummer trade package this winter and has the most upside of the two by being four years younger. They’re both pegged around the 5.00 ERA mark and could yield to left-handed prospect Jake Eder later in the season.
There isn’t much MLB-ready depth in the starting pitcher group beyond the cobbled together Opening Day rotation. And when you factor in the variance of Soroka’s health, Fedde’s return from Korea, and Kopech’s mindset things get extremely tough to project. The center point of the rotation’s range is their 2023 valuation with about 2 wins of variance on either side. Veterans Lance Lynn, Mike Clevinger, and Lucas Giolito are replaced by reclamation projects who may or may not pan out – an interesting roll of the dice for an organization in transition.
— Bullpen —
Having a bullpen that’s more of an afterthought isn’t a huge negative for a club with a mid-60s win total. Losing 1.8 WAR of value between mid-season trades and the offseason makes things interesting from a who’s who perspective. Recognizable names Gregory Santos, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Kendall Graveman, Bryan Shaw, and Reynaldo Lopez leave behind a collective 277 appearances and 285.1 innings in need of replacement. This changing of the guard resorts to a less-formidable mix of John Brebbia, left-handed specialist Tim Hill, and Rule 5 pickup Shane Drohan. Drohan’s command struggles, Hill’s .349 BABIP, and Brebbia’s elbow health are important question marks coming into the 2024 season.
John Brebbia steps into a high-leverage role to mitigate lost confidence in Jimmy Lambert (2023: 5.26 ERA, 6.20 FIP/4.90 xFIP) and a general dearth of dependable relievers. Touki Toussaint is all over the place with his sketchy command, and Garrett Crochet’s return from elbow and shoulder injuries over the last couple seasons leaves plenty of questions himself. Most projections are warm to the big 24-year-old lefty though, adding a half-win of value as a 4.00 ERA-type who could make spot starts if needed. This could be the worst bullpen in the league after losing so much since last summer, especially Gregory Santos.
— Position Players —
Challenging the Oakland Athletics for the bottom ranks in multiple offensive categories says a lot about the White Sox season. Fortunately, their division posed much less of a challenge than Oakland’s – one explanation for Chicago finishing the season with 11 more wins than the A’s. It was really bad on the South Side except for one bright ray of light: Luis Robert Jr. The freakish centerfielder had the healthiest season of his young career and slashed a monster .264/.315/.542. Plus Robert accounted for nearly a quarter of the team’s stolen bases and 30 home runs. Defense? Yep, he rebounded there too.
CHW Notable Position Players on Injured List (2022 with 2023 Updates)
| Days on IL (’22) | Salary on IL (’22) | Days on IL (’23) | Salary on IL (’23) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T Anderson | 79 | $4,123,642 | 22 | $1,478,488 |
| E Jimenez | 74 | $2,586,004 | 32 | $1,634,400 |
| Y Moncada | 56 | $3,946,229 | 73 | $6,672,054 |
| Y Grandal | 51 | $5,114,025 | 0 | $0 |
| L Robert | 32 | $1,049,272 | 6 | $306,450 |
| TOTAL | 292 | $16,819,172 | 133 | $10,091,392 |
Ironically, a less-injured TA meant more exposure to his 23.3% strikeout rate and career-low 60 wRC+. Tim’s play on both sides was so bad that the organization eschewed a contract extension in favor of signing Paul DeJong to a one-year, $1.75M deal to temporarily fill the shortstop position. Anderson and Elvis Andrus combined for a bottom-five defensive grouping that DeJong upgrades significantly. Although DeJong is deficient as an on-base hitter, the bar was set low enough in 2023 where his fielding upgrade outweighs any issues with the bat. Shortstop depth is shaky at best, although the goal is biding time for the organization’s #1 prospect Colson Montgomery to make his way to The Show.
Chicago’s fading big guns Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez suffered their own setbacks last year. Moncada’s playing time dipped again, as did pretty much all aspects of his game. At the age of 28, it’s looking more and more like his big bat of the 2019 & 2021 seasons are relics of the past. Yoan has the talent of a really good hitter but the power just isn’t there. Perhaps a healthy season recoups some pop but I’m more skeptical of that than I am a defensive rebound. On the flip side, Eloy finally staved off significant injury and paved a path toward a 2024 resurgence. Calls for a 15% offensive improvement make sense and is a must for a DH. The aggregate of a healthier Moncada/Jimenez pairing staves off a small amount of regression from Robert to provide 1-2 WAR of upside over 2023. Not bad.
Islands in the Stream
So what about the rest of the position players? The promising career of first baseman Andrew Vaughn hasn’t manifested into an All-Star caliber first three seasons. But Vaughn isn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination. Instead, Chicago has a reliable extra base hitter who makes really solid contact for about $16M less than Jose Abreu for a similar level of production at this point. Even though Andrew’s bat wasn’t quite up to snuff last season, I see a decent level of conviction for a 10% offensive improvement. And that likely means getting back up to snuff against lefties – a characteristic that suffered a 43% decline between 2022 and 2023. In fact, the White Sox as a whole lost 30% from that split between seasons. Things are looking up a bit in the infield.
And we still have to tackle two negative-value positions. Second base was a black hole of offense (.215/.253/.348, 60 wRC+) that might see a small improvement between Nicky Lopez and the young Venezuelan Lenyn Sosa. Emphasize the word small. As for the catcher spot, this is a completely overhauled unit after moving on from Yasmani Grandal and Seby Zavala. Prospect Korey Lee will play the third man of the group once again, honing his skills in Triple-A until something gives way on the 26-man roster. The wild card in the group’s progress is veteran Martin Maldonado. He may have lost his defensive edge at the age of 37 but shouldn’t be as bad as 2023. The Max Stassi/Seby Zavala backup swap should have a small offensive impact at least. An overall fielding improvement with the infielders should help the White Sox dig out of a really bad place this year.
Andrew Benintendi returning to form would add just enough to make the outfield more than a one-man show. Getting back to league average is attainable as opposed to what Oscar Colas and/or Gavin Sheets are projected for. Last season, these two combined for an ugly -1.9 WAR in right field with sub-60 wRC+ and lackluster defense. Neither appear to be the long-term answer to the right field question, making offseason acquisition Dominic Fletcher an interesting twist. The White Sox offense hit rock bottom in 2023 and has enough low-hanging fruit to realize a 5-7% uptick.
Kansas City Royals 2024 Win Total: Open 63.5, Now 74
2023 Result: Under 69.5 (56-106 / Pythag: 64)
Executive VP/General Manager JJ Picollo was active early and often after a brutal 106-loss season. Then he capped things off by signing stud shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year extension. You’ve gotta love that as a fan. Before the big deal was inked, he snapped up 40% of the Padres rotation, nailed down a couple veteran relievers, and supplemented the lineup and bench. Kansas City was so busy that Caesars Sportsbook upped their opening win total from 63.5 to 72 in mid-December as a result of these transactions. And it drifted a bit higher from there. Is the steep upward adjustment warranted for a 59-win team? After all, K.C. missed their 2023 win total by double digits – a total that was a full 6 games below 2022’s.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- G Hampson (2B/OF)
- W Smith (RP – LHP)
- S Lugo (SP – RHP)
- C Stratton (RP – RHP)
- M Wacha (SP – RHP)
- H Renfroe (OF)
- A Frazier (2B)
Subtractions:
- Z Greinke (SP – RHP)
- N Wittgren (RP – RHP)
- M Duffy (INF)
- B Keller (SP – RHP)
- A Garrett (RP – LHP)
- H Dozier (UTL)
- J Bradley Jr. (OF)
- J Kowar (RP – RHP)
- J Staumont (RP – RHP)
- T Clarke (RP – RHP)
- E Olivares (OF)
BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 68 – 71
— Position Players —
Kansas City’s offense as a whole wallowed in the bottom five of wRC+ (87), homers (163), and OBP (.303). Despite their collective struggles to get runners on base, manager Matt Quatraro was not afraid to put them in motion when they did get on. The league’s third-highest 163 stolen bases look good on face value but a 77.6% conversion rate sprinkled a little rain on the parade. It should be no surprise that the Royals perpetuated their running team persona that dates back to 2018. Unfortunately, that fifth-lowest stolen base rate was a bigger problem than what other active teams like Arizona and Cincinnati had to face.
The sophomore slump was real throughout the Royals’ promising young position player nucleus. At least the ones not named Bobby Witt Jr. Last offseason was all about progressing the seven players who made their 2022 MLB debuts – a group that accounted for 34.5% of the team’s plate appearances and 51.5% of the lineup’s WAR that year. Flash forward to 2023 and the seven sophomores once again accounted for about half of the position player WAR. Dig in a little deeper and you’ll see that Witt carried this group with 5.7 WAR. Folks, that’s half of the entire lineup’s value. The 23-year-old phenom led the team in homers (30), stolen bases (49), runs (97), and RBI (96)!
KCR Hitters Who Made MLB Debuts in 2022 (2022 vs. 2023)
| ’22 PA | ’22 WAR | ’23 PA | ’23 WAR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N Eaton* | 122 | 0.9 | 56 | -0.8 | |
| M Massey | 194 | 0.6 | 461 | 0.5 | |
| MJ Melendez | 534 | -0.2 | 602 | 0.0 | |
| V Pasquantino | 298 | 1.5 | 260 | 0.0 | |
| N Pratto | 182 | -0.3 | 345 | -0.6 | |
| DWaters | 109 | 0.4 | 337 | 0.8 | |
| B Witt Jr. | 632 | 2.3 | 694 | 5.7 |
While Witt took a massive step forward, the first base tandem of Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto shed nearly 2 wins of value. Plus MJ Melendez added insult to injury by struggling to play a corner outfield spot. We found out what happens when you hide a poor defensive catcher out there: triple the innings in the outfield, triple the defensive liability. It’s the Melendez Conundrum. What do you do with him? As the primary backup catcher to Salvador Perez – also a negative fielder – MJ accounted for a -18 DRS in 2022. Last year, MJ cost the Royals 14 runs as a regular outfielder.
The combination of losing superb defender Michael A Taylor to the Twins and moving Melendez to the corner brought the outfield defense down quite a bit. However, it opened the door for rookie Freddie Fermin to slide into the role of Salvador Perez’ backstop partner. Fermin’s bat was more than reliable in a short 70-game sample (.281/.321/.461). More impressive, however, were his 8 runs saved behind the plate. Look at it as a 26-run turnaround just by swapping out Melendez for Fermin. Projections call for Freddie to have minor regression with the bat while maintaining good defense. The team as a whole should retain their middling defensive ratings unless Fermin takes a larger share of the workload and/or Melendez vacates the outfield.
Growth From Within?
Bobby Witt Jr. undoubtedly returns as the lineup’s centerpiece. Although his upside is next to nothing after blowing up for 5.7 WAR last year, a 4-5 win encore is what this offense needs to stabilize. The challenge becomes more of a who else wants to contribute sort of situation. Melendez and Fermin probably won’t move the needle much for the reasons mentioned above, although it’s possible that MJ finds additional power in season three of his MLB career.
Infielder Michael Massey’s return to respectability would be a boon while the first baseman scenario finds its footing between Pasquantino and Pratto. Vinnie’s shoulder surgery recovery is still a question mark at this point, so all bets are off if the big left-hander misses significant time or cannot return to something close to 2022 form. That would go a long way in salvaging the team’s effectiveness against southpaws in the absence of Edward Olivares. Especially with uncertainty surrounding Nelson Velazquez and Dairon Blanco after flashing strength in 2023.
Young third baseman Maikel Garcia has room for growth as does Drew Waters, though the flexible outfielder looks to play more of a complementary role. With the possibility of left-handed hitter Kyle Isbel becoming K.C.’s regular centerfielder, improved offensive production is attainable while running back a phenomenal 14 DRS as a part-timer. Offseason acquisitions Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier might be past their primes but have value as platoon-ish players. Vinnie Pasquantino is the wild card in the 2024 offense – a healthy return will underline the lineup’s improvements and amplify gains in the LHP splits.
— Rotation —
Management’s offseason approach to the pitching staff varied greatly from that of the lineup. After yet another ineffective season, swift change came about by signing former Padres right-handed pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. These 30-something veterans come to town after solid prove it seasons. Considering the bottom-tier metrics that K.C.’s starters registered, these guys are clear upgrades. But the real gem came to town six months prior via trade for lefty Cole Ragans, the second half MVP of the Royals rotation. I like what I see already.
Saying goodbye to 39-year-old veteran Zack Greinke after bookending his career in Kansas City, as well as farewell to six-year Royals starter Brad Keller signified a changing of the guard. Unfortunately for them, it had to be done for this club to move out of the AL Central cellar. Keller’s bout with thoracic outlet syndrome came on the heels of two straight 5.00+ ERA and 4.50+ FIP seasons. And despite Greinke being one of the most interesting cats in the MLB, he just turned 40 after a 5.06 ERA, 4.74 FIP/4.42 xFIP campaign. Lackluster numbers and shaving close to a half-inning per start from a year prior made a clear statement: it’s time to move on.
Greinke’s struggles emphasized the rotation’s underlying problem of reduced workload. Starters collectively averaged just 4.85 innings/start, leaving the bullpen to pick up a lot of slack. Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles were exceptions to the trend, however. They carried their fair share of 337.1 innings over 60 starts, each averaging over 5.5 innings/start. Singer’s sinker/slider combo delivered a ton of ground balls en route to a deceptive 5.52 ERA that clouded a 4.29 FIP/4.28 xFIP. Journeyman Jordan Lyles also has room for improvement through regression after a 6.28 ERA, 5.62 FIP/5.34 xFIP season that begs the question of how long will he continue to remain in the rotation. That said, these two should retain their value in 2024 with limited upside.
An Infusion of Talent
Kansas City’s lack of success in developing top starting pitching talent effectively requires them to look outside the organization for immediate help. Last summer’s trade of reliever Aroldis Chapman for 26-year-old Cole Ragans netted a promising frontline starter under team control through 2028. One could even say that the Royals scammed the Rangers in that trade. My guess is that Texas is just fine with the ultimate outcome. Ragans parlayed his new opportunity as a rotation regular into a 2.64 ERA and 2.49 FIP/3.28 xFIP over 12 starts with K.C. Each half of his ground ball/hard contact rate profile fell on the right side of 40%. Running back a 2+ WAR value hinges on the lefty extending past the 25 start mark while working through some home run luck regression.
Projecting veterans Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha is less interesting given their histories. A combined 50+ starts at low-4.00s effectiveness should provide somerhing around 4 WAR. That sounds great after the rotation delivered the MLB’s fifth-lowest 7.1-WAR. Lugo and Wacha may have low upside but their stability is much needed given where this group just came from. They’re 5+ innings/start hurlers who buy the club time while Kris Bubic finishes recovering from Tommy John surgery. Plus less-experienced arms like Alec Marsh and Daniel Lynch have more time to develop without being thrown into the Opening Day rotation. It’s still not great, but the 2024 rotation stands to gain 2-3 wins and get closer to league average with these reinforcements.
— Bullpen —
Injecting life into a bottom-five bullpen sounds easy, right? Jettison the weak links and bring on a few free agents to spice things up. Shipping Taylor Clarke on the heels of a brutal season after mid-2023 trades of Aroldis Chapman and Scott Barlow left plenty of opportunity for others to step up. Ironically, Chapman’s 1.3 WAR in a partial season with K.C. leaves the biggest hole for a group that netted just 0.5 WAR last year. Letting baserunners on with a paltry 2.10 K/BB ratio and yielding a fourth-highest 1.23 HR/9 is, in fact, a brutal combination.
Gobbling up a pair of the Rangers’ free agent relievers Chris Stratton and Will Smith helps the cause. Smith serves as a rare left-hander in the Royals’ bullpen as well as a good luck charm for World Series contenders. If the 34-year-old wants to win four rings in four seasons, however, he’s gonna need a mid-season trade. But I digress. Smith and Stratton aren’t the type of relievers you bring in to turn around a bullpen per se. They’re experienced pieces that bridge the middle innings to your back end hammers. Naturally, Kansas City’s main problem turns out to be a lack of said hammers. As things stand today, Quatraro will test the inexperienced arms of James McArthur and John McMillon in high-leverage roles. The gains for 2024 are modest at best, so expect another bottom-third showing from this undefined group.
2024 AL Central Projected Standings
- Minnesota Twins (90-72)
- Cleveland Guardians (85-77)
- Detroit Tigers (74-88)
- Kansas City Royals (69-93)
- Chicago White Sox (61-101)
One Down, Five To Go
And with that, the BetCrushers’ first of six 2024 divisional previews is in the books. And it’s right on the heels of Yanni’s excellent NFL season so no pressure, right? Opening Day will be here before we know it and the NASCAR Cup Series season kickoff with the Daytona 500 will bridge the gap nicely. So be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more, follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications:
