It’s quiet out there in the Midwest – and that’s how the Cleveland Guardians stayed under the radar with one of the strongest second-half performances in the MLB. The rebranded – and still beloved – Guardians squad finished the regular season on a 38-18 heater that yielded an eleven game advantage in the AL Central over defending division champion Chicago. They kept things rolling against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round but fell just short to the Yankees in a winner-take-all postseason elimination. My favorite division of 2022 with respect to win total bets delivered solid winners with the Guards and Twins. Otherwise we’re talking about the most disappointing division in the majors. Any reason to expect a stronger race this year?

This is one in a series of six Divisional Previews & Futures outlooks for the 2023 MLB season – the 4th Annual Edition at BetCrushers.com. It’s an incremental process from season to season full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)

2022 Division Winner: Cleveland Guardians

2022 AL Central Final Standings

1. Cleveland Guardians (92-70)
2. Chicago White Sox (81-81)
3. Minnesota Twins (78-84)
4. Detroit Tigers (66-96)
5. Kansas City Royals (65-97)

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Cleveland Guardians 2023 Win Total: Open 87

2022 Result: Over 76.5 (92-70 / Pythag: 88)

One advantage of not jamming huge bets into domestic retail books is the ability to play soft win total openers. BetRivers’ opening number for Cleveland of 73.5 was definitely low enough to catch my money. Hell, I thought a .500 season would be reasonable – a dicey proposition at the All-Star Break, mind you – but they smashed market expectations by any measurement come October. Favorable injury luck helped the cause and we’ll always take it when we can get it. This year is quite different as the luxury of a low season win total flew out the door with the Guardians’ recent success. Good news for the franchise, but what about us bettors sizing up a much higher number this season?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• M. Zunino (C)
• J. Bell (1B/DH)

Subtractions:

• N. Jones (OF)
• L. Maile (C)
• B. Shaw (RHP – RP)
• A. Hedges (C)
• O. Miller (INF)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 84 – 87

— Position Players —

Cleveland delivered on the critical expectation for a few extra percent of offense while taking a big step forward defensively. Granted, there really was no part of this team that failed to improve from 2021 to 2022. A league-average lineup that tended towards good hitters (7th highest batting average) without earth-shattering power (21st highest slugging) was plenty good in the depressed AL Central. One difference maker was the Guardians squeezing even more out of small ball by capitalizing on great team speed. Stealing 119 bases (3rd most) is impressive in its own right, not to mention the fact that five Guardians swiped 18 or more bases, emphasizing the diversity of Terry Francona’s threats.

A whopping 17 different Guardians players made their Major League debuts in 2022, ranging from Rookie-of-the-Year contender Steven Kwan, postseason hero Oscar Gonzalez, and rotation regular Konnor Pilkington, to top-100 prospects like Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and Tyler Freeman.  These rookies were able to patch roster holes or even fill them outright, while a number of other pre-arb players also stepped up with big seasons.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians – Mark Polishuk, MLBTradeRumors.com – November 2, 2022

Youth + Health

The infusion of young talent combined with an MLB-lowest 709 days on the IL fueled Cleveland’s second half run while division contenders like Minnesota and Chicago suffered from attrition. This season, however, the luster of new faces achieving success so quickly meets the reality of expectation. Breakouts by Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez raised the bar moving forward and allowed the front office to cut bait with underperformers. Franmil Reyes and Oscar Mercado were shipped mid-season and Owen Miller was traded this winter for a younger version to refuel the prospect pipeline.

AL RoY candidate Steven Kwan cemented himself in left field with a gaudy .373 OBP and 21 runs saved. Give a modest haircut to both sides of his attributes if you’re skeptical of another monster season. And the same goes with Gimenez, who nailed down the role of everyday second baseman. The 24-year-old is under team control through 2027 and could be the answer the Guardians have been looking for since Jason Kipnis vacated the spot years ago. Pumping the brakes on another .297/.371/.466 season is rational (.353 BABIP!), but so is continued top-tier defense from the former Met.

Prevention Is the Best Medicine

Run prevention generally reflects the caliber of pitching. In Cleveland’s case, their staff benefitted nicely from four Gold Glovers having their backs. Andres Gimenez teamed up with fellow former Met Amed Rosario to form one of the better middle infield tandems out there – far from a terrible return for All-Star Francisco Lindor. And that strength up the middle is key to the longevity of a ground ball contact pitcher like Shane Bieber as his approach evolves.

Turnover behind the plate casts uncertainty over the Guardians’ ability to maintain their defensive accolades. Catchers Austin Hedges and Luke Maile give way to a Mike Zunino/Bo Naylor/catcher to be named later grouping. Hedges’ offensive troubles are now swapped for Zunino’s injury history. When healthy enough to muster 90+ games, the veteran backstop offers sporadic power and quality framing skills. But the variance involved in projecting Zunino and 23-year-old rookie Bo Naylor is tough to bracket. Chances are, Naylor won’t be on the Opening Day roster but the organization’s #2 prospect should be on track to contribute this season. Offsetting this is the low bar that the Hedges/Maile combination established (.178/.265/.265, 55 WRC+). Worst case, business as usual. Upside is another 25-35% of offensive productivity without sacrificing much defensively.

Along with Steven Kwan, the speedy Myles Straw came up huge in center field for the Guardians with 17 runs saved and a monster zone rating. That, and 21 stolen bases, will keep Myles in the lineup despite dipping by 30% offensively. Realistically, we’re looking at a 28-year-old who should rebound from a .261-BABIP just fine. The flip side with Straw is he’ll probably shed some of those spectacular defensive numbers. A little give-and-take with Straw in center, minor regression from Kwan in left, and defense as an afterthought with Oscar Gonzalez in right should bring Cleveland’s outfield defense down a notch. It’s still quite good and the team’s overall fielding should remain one of the best in 2023.

Where’s the Beef?

I’m not insane to ask for one of the game’s most disciplined and effective hitters to be just as good in 2023. Third baseman Jose Ramirez’ thumb was repaired in the offseason and a fourth straight 130+ wRC+ campaign is inevitable. But repeat performances from the likes of Gimenez, Kwan, and Oscar Gonzalez are in question. Kwan’s downside in year two is fairly small compared to Gonzalez’ half-season with an unsustainable .345 BABIP. If Oscar’s power numbers are legit, the team should not feel much of a dropoff.

I’m of the opinion that Andres Gimenez’ regression gets washed by Myles Straw regaining .320+ OBP form. A bigger stabilizing force to the Guardians lineup is actually filling the designated hitter slot with, well, a hitter. The Franmil Reyes/Richie Palacios experience was painful, at best. It won’t take much to top their .219/.266/.331 line with a much more substantial DH/first base pairing of Josh Bell and a healthy Josh Naylor. Both offer power and decent OBP for big men. Naylor’s key weakness is a lopsided split away from right-handed pitching, so Francona will need to tap the bench to mitigate this.

Bench depth is uncertain, if not super talented. Lauded prospects like Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Will Brennan will get their chances this season. Whether out of necessity or luxury, the Guardians will fall back on this next wave of young talent to support a very good starting nine. There is offensive upside to be unlocked but my conservative full-season outlook keeps the Cleveland offense in a similar range, maybe even slightly more balanced handedness splits.

— Rotation —

Continuing the theme of big improvement is a rotation that tacked on nearly 5 wins of value. My main concern heading into the 2022 season was uncertainty from Shane Bieber’s supporting cast – a concern that was all but put to bed during the stretch run. Valuable experience gained from the prior season was parlayed into the second largest workload shouldered by any MLB rotation (907.0 IP), right behind World Series Champion Houston Astros. That was an 87.0-inning bump from 2021!

Workhorses of the Guardians Rotation, 2022

	Starts	IP	BB%	GB%	FIP / xFIP	WAR
S. Bieber	31	200.0	4.6%	48.2%	2.87 / 2.98	4.9
T. McKenzie	30	188.1	5.8%	32.8%	3.58 / 3.72	3.6
C. Quantrill	32	186.1	6.1%	42.1%	4.12 / 4.39	2.2

The secret to the success of these cornerstone starters wasn’t so much about overpowering the competition. Instead, discipline and playing to the team’s fielding strengths were the winning formula. Staying on the mound longer gets the love of your bullpen too. Will these three combine for 6+ innings/start again? Consensus projections don’t lead me to a “no” here, so check that box. Typical injury risk aside, this Bieber/McKenzie/Quantrill trio will be confidently called upon to lead this young rotation once again.

Cal Quantrill wasn’t great per se, but a ground ball contact pitcher with a strong infield behind him has value. Quantitively speaking, the 28-year-old should maintain a value close to 2 WAR. It’s a matter of playing to your team’s strengths, and a pitcher with his profile that can consistently pitch into the 5th inning is far from hateful. Of these three, however, my interest lies with Triston McKenzie’s development after slashing his walk rate in half and producing another super-low BABIP (.237). Yet he is far from a ground ball pitcher who gave up 40.4% hard contact. So I am conflicted in evaluating the amount of dropoff from his surprising 3.6 WAR season. Recapture a couple more percentage points of strikeouts and the loss should be stifled to a 1/2 win.

Homegrown Arms

In addition to Triston McKenzie, staff ace Shane Bieber headlines a crop of Cleveland draftees including Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac. Bieber’s compatriots of the 2016 draft class will again be tapped to round out the rotation as the next wave of prospects like Xzavion Curry, Logan Allen, Tanner Bisbee, and Gavin Williams make their way through the high minors. You cannot overlook Shane Bieber after a huge 4.9-WAR season in which he regained his status as a 30+ start workhorse. At this point, the Guardians’ ace should deliver close to 200 innings in the low-3.00s FIP ballpark. Unfortunately, that pencils out to a loss around 1 WAR, especially if he falls short by a few starts.

Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac fill the roles of #4 & #5 starters adequately. If there’s any knock against these low-to-mid 4.00s FIP arms, it has to be workload. Neither has exceeded 143 innings in a season, though Plesac has been a 20+ start guy in three of his four big league seasons. This is a fairly nondescript pairing that must soak up 50 starts. Otherwise, Tito Francona will have to tap into swingman Cody Morris for spot starts early in the season or dig into his minor league crop this summer. With Bieber and McKenzie in line to lose 1-2 WAR after huge seasons – and no other sources of considerable improvement in view – my expectation for Cleveland’s rotation is status quo or a small step backwards.

— Bullpen —

Their elite bullpen surely enjoyed the rotation’s ability to tie up a lot of innings. Sure, the talent displayed by Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak has a ton to do with it. But the ability to work the fifth-least innings goes a long way toward keeping relievers fresh. Their 3.39 FIP was 5th in the majors and 3.47 xFIP second only to the Houston Astros. Not bad. Plus their 51 saves and 43 wins both ranked second in the MLB.

The problem with young pitchers who put up such eye-popping numbers – like 1.29 ERA and 2.11 FIP – is determining if such elite production is sustainable. Clase’s corresponding 2.60 xFIP calls for some reversion, though mid-2.00s FIP production should maintain his value around 2.0 WAR in 2022.

2022 AL Central Futures Preview – BetCrushers.com – March 18, 2022

Emmanuel Clase certainly did anything but regress last year. Instead, he one-upped himself. 42 saves in 46 attempts with a 1.36 ERA and 1.98 FIP/2.18 xFIP earned the Guardians closer a lot of deserved attention. So where does the 25-year-old stand with three-peating these numbers and 2+ WAR? You’ll have to tell me if last year’s .222 BABIP will come home to roost. Either way, Clase should be one of the best late-inning guys in the league once again with little dropoff in value.

The Bullpen That Stays Together…Raises a Lot of Questions?

What’s especially scary about the Cleveland relief unit is that the gang is back in full force this season. Maybe Trevor Stephan and Sam Hentges aren’t quite mid-2.00s guys after reversing their rocky 2021 debuts. Is Enyel De Los Santos a completely different pitcher coming off of a sudden turnaround upon joining the Guardians? Emmanuel Clase may be the real deal, but are those three sub-3.00 relievers with 50+ inning durability again?

Those questions are what hold me back from valuing this season’s bullpen as highly as 2022’s. We may have more clarity regarding one key piece of the puzzle though. A spring training shoulder injury delayed James Karinchak’s debut until Independence Day but the 39.0-inning. When he took the field, however, Karinchak’s 2.29 FIP/3.11 FIP finish to the season was a vital reinforcement for this late-inning crew. So was his 2021 meltdown down the stretch fallout from the sticky stuff ban, a sign of fatigue, or just a bump in the road? With this many questions outstanding, I’ll have to downgrade Cleveland’s bullpen by 1-2 WAR. It’s young and talented, yet difficult to expect elite-level results from again with such a short track record.

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Chicago White Sox 2023 Win Total: Open 84.5, Now 83

2022 Result: Under 91.5 (81-81 / Pythag: 78)

The Tony La Russa Experience is officially over in Chicago. Health concerns aside, it was long overdue…just a little too late for the White Sox to make any headway with Cleveland down the stretch. Disappointment was plentiful with the South Siders as they were pretty much average in all aspects – except defense, of course – sporting a record right around .500 all season. Change can be good, right? Rookie manager Pedro Grifol gets his opportunity to change the team’s culture and regain the AL Central crown. Avoiding another season of serious injury setbacks is a start, though reviving the roster is something a little more under leadership’s control.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• A. Benintendi (OF)
• M. Clevinger (RHP – SP)

Subtractions:

• J. Abreu (1B)
• E. Andrus (SS)
• J. Cueto (RHP – SP)
• J. Harrison (INF)
• D. Mendick (INF)
• AJ Pollock (OF)
• V. Velasquez (RHP)
• A. Engel (OF)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 79 – 81

— Rotation —

Give credit where credit is due. Last year’s rotation held its own in spite of injury challenges and tough breaks. While workhorse Lance Lynn started the season on the IL, the likes of Vince Velasquez and Dallas Keuchel held down his spot. They did so in theory, as these replacements teamed up for an agonizing 17 starts. To be fair, Velasquez was much more acceptable as a reliever. So the team is just fine moving on from those two. But the White Sox will miss what The Shimmy and Johnny Cueto mustered on the mound in a stopgap role: 24 starts of solid 3.29 ERA and 3.76 FIP/4.39 xFIP ball over 153.1 innings.

This mid-pack group had one major bright spot, however. Now cemented as the White Sox’ ace, 27-year-old Dylan Cease backed up an impressive 2021 season with a dynamite 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP/3.50 xFIP 2022 campaign. He maintained a 4+ WAR value between seasons with excellent peripherals like 31.2% hard hit and 15.0% swinging strike rates. Much of Cease’s success is attributed to the most lethal slider in the game – one that was more elite than what Shohei Ohtani, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, and Gerrit Cole fired off. It’s no wonder he turned to it more than any other pitch last year. If Dylan can keep the slider close to that level he’s almost a lock to replace his value in 2023.

Room For More Optimism

What Lance Lynn has left in the tank in his age 36 season means a lot to Chicago’s rotation. Can he make a run at 30 starts and 170+ innings? That seems to be the minimum needed to support a staff with depth questions beyond its primary five starters. Mid-to-upper-3.00 FIP production with that workload should add around 1 additional win over last year. Whatever he found in the last two months of the 2022 season is it. The veteran’s new cutter was part of a brilliant 3.27 FIP/3.31 xFIP finish with an 8.33 K/BB ratio. Any thoughts of contending for the AL Central crown are linked to Lance Lynn being a 3-WAR foundational piece of the 2023 rotation.

There’s a similar importance placed on Lucas Giolito reaching the 30-start mark for the third season in a row. Especially with the hopes of a little BABIP regression bump after suffering an unfortunate .340 figure with a 4.90 ERA and 4.06 FIP/3.66 xFIP. The trouble with expecting a big positive swing in Gio’s favor are some of his underlying numbers. A 39.0% hard hit rate was his highest by several percentage points since becoming a fixture in the White Sox rotation back in 2018. Plus the 28-year-old righty’s swinging strike rate (12.2%) and K/BB ratio (2.90) were also at their lowest marks since 2018.

Looming Questions

Fortunately, Chicago’s top three starting pitcher slots are nailed down. If Dylan Cease maintains his value to the group they have a strong chance to tack on another 1-2 wins over last season’s collective work. The team plans on Michael Kopech continuing to grind away as a starter after transitioning into the role full time in 2022 with 25 starts of the 3.54 ERA, 4.50 FIP/4.83 xFIP variety. Kopech could mature into longer starts but must shake some sketchy underlying stuff like 11.5% walk and 41.3% hard hit rates, especially as the snapback from a .223 BABIP looms overhead.

That leaves us with a final slot to negotiate: the one vacated by the legendary Johnny Cueto. Mike Clevinger was tapped to be that guy this offseason but, off-field issues aside, presents enough concerns to where you almost have to budget lost value equivalent to what the Cease-Lynn-Giolito trio should gain in 2023. Cueto set a high bar for a fill-in that Clevinger won’t reach unless he somehow rekindles that sub-4.00 FIP magic he had in Cleveland prior to Tommy John surgery. His return to action in San Diego left a lot to be desired in many respects, though reasonable improvement and an additional 5 starts or so could close the Cueto gap to around 1 win.

Combine the lack of depth beyond these five with reliability questions surrounding Kopech and Clevinger. The luster wears off of the White Sox rotation in a hurry unless those two surprise the hell out of everyone. Davis Martin could parlay his brief MLB experience into a quality replacement role down the stretch but a prospect like Sean Burke has a long way to go before becoming a viable starter this season. All of this leads me to a more pessimistic stance of no noticeable improvement from 2022. The Cueto hole is more significant than it may seem.

— Bullpen —

Chicago’s bullpen maintained its top ten positioning despite modest expectations to regress from elite status in 2021. Unfortunately, I’m looking at another step down this year that is partially tied to Liam Hendricks’ absence for what could amount to the first half of 2023. Assuming full recovery to his All-Star caliber relief work, you have to assume Hendriks will be right back in that mid-2.00s range with nasty swing-and-miss stuff and pinpoint control.

There to pick up Liam’s weight as he battles cancer are the very capable high-leverage arms of Joe Kelly and Aaron Bummer. But they both need to be in the mix for most of the season as opposed to last season’s 63.2 combined innings. Each need to contribute that much volume in 2023 as Kendall Graveman likely gets the nod as interim closer in manager Pedro Grifol’s forced deck shuffling. It’s a much less dominant back end without Liam Hendriks – 37 saves, 4 blown saves in 2022 – but still quite reliable.

Below those four foundation pieces are questions that lead me to downgrading Chicago’s bullpen. Jake Diekman’s persistent control issues water down his high strikeout numbers and add considerable variance to his game. Positive regression toward more respectable xFIP numbers and historical ground ball percentages point to significant improvement close to 1 WAR. However, Reynaldo Lopez tugs the other end of that rope on the heels of a 1.99 FIP/3.35 xFIP season worth 1.9 WAR in relief. Lopez is a tough one to peg moving forward, though I see enough consensus for him to shed at least 1 win of value after that monster season.

— Position Players —

Aside from their pitching staff coming back down to earth in 2022, defense and injuries to key players were the bane of the White Sox’ position player corps. Granted, the number of players and days on the Injured List weren’t anything astounding. It came down to who was on the list that truly mattered.

CHW Notable Position Players on Injured List, 2022

	Days on IL	Salary on IL
T. Anderson	79	$4,123,642
E. Jimenez	74	$2,586,004
Y. Moncada	56	$3,946,229
Y. Grandal	51	$5,114,025
L. Robert	32	$1,049,272

The thesis behind significant improvement from this talented group is simple: stay off of the IL and in the lineup for 130-140 games this season. My estimations from this fivesome come to 8-9 wins of improvement if fully healthy. Catcher Yasmani Grandal has the largest variance clouding a potential rebound after posting the worst offensive and defensive numbers of his ten-year career. Unlike the others on the above list, Grandal can split time with Seby Zavala to form a league-average hitting tandem with a modest positive contribution behind the plate.

Anyone who follows the White Sox closely knows that shortstop Tim Anderson is a must have in their lineup. He’ll turn 30 this year, and after missing half of the 2022 season there are signs of T.A. losing some of that magical edge he showed in 2019-2020. Much like former teammate – and 2020 AL MVP – Jose Abreu, he below up in that short 60-game season with a .322/.357/.529 line and 140 wRC+. The past two seasons infer those were peak Tim Anderson years, though avoiding extensive time on the IL should add another win to the mix by simply maintaining last year’s plate discipline and +10% offensive production.

Conditional Upside

Center fielder Luis Robert grabbed everyone’s attention, including mine, after breaking out in an injury-filled, 155 wRC+ 2021 season. Despite missing three months, the athletic freak mashed 13 home runs and powered through a .338/.378/.567 line. Now Robert presents a couple dilemmas with projecting forward to 2023. Can he stay on the field for 120+ games? Will he regain that elite power from a couple seasons ago? To capture another 3 wins from Luis and Eloy Jimenez, both need to stay healthy and contribute at a 120-130 wRC+ level. To help the cause, manager Pedro Grifol indicated that Jimenez’ best interests are served with him out of the outfield and in the DH spot. Makes sense, considering Eloy was never a positive defender and his time out there resulted in injury. Getting more than 85 games out of Jimenez for the first time since his 2019 rookie season is a must.

Another key piece of the White Sox lineup is third baseman Yoan Moncada. He also missed a ton of games and when he was on the field, the bat simply wasn’t there. Fortunately, the switch hitter’s .212/.273/.353 down year came with a .265 BABIP, nearly .080 points below his career average. Moncada is a prime rebound candidate to tack on another 30% of productivity at the plate as one of the team’s more gifted hitters. If you’re willing to roll the dice on all five of these lineup staples dodging last year’s injury woes there’s 8-9 wins of upside ready to be unlocked in the form of offensive firepower.

Don’t Underestimate the Losses

Most of Chicago’s position player free agency losses were depth pieces. Granted, that depth was tapped early and often. One offseason loss was anything but a role player: first baseman Jose Abreu. The White Sox lifer took his disciplined, hard-hitting bat to the World Champion Houston Astros and left a tremendous 3.9-WAR hole behind. Odds are, Abreu wasn’t going to replace that much value anyhow. His absence opens up the opportunity for Grifol to hide Andrew Vaughn’s horrific outfield defense at first base and keep his positive bat in the lineup. The simple math pencils out to a 2-WAR dropoff from Jose Abreu who, after all, played 157 games with a 138 wRC+ bat.

Going back to the role players, outfielders Adam Engel & AJ Pollock are understated losses in the field. Engel did not have much of a bat and Pollock’s down year offensively won’t be missed. But their fielding somehow kept this club from straying further from the pack as the league’s worst defense. Fortunately, the ChiSox roped Andrew Benintendi into boosting their outfield defense by a healthy margin. In fact, he is the primary reason why I’m upgrading the team’s fielding by a good amount – not because he’s great as much as Beni is a hell of a lot better than Jimenez and Vaughn out there. Plus there is a decent chance up-and-coming prospect Oscar Colas pushes his way into right field at some point this season – even as early as Opening Day.

I shouldn’t neglect calling out what Josh Harrison did to fill the gap at second base while that position hung in the balance. Now without him, Romy Gonzalez and Leury Garcia fill the role with lesser bats and equivalent fielding. Chicago’s ideal lineup is poised to reattain its offense of 2021 if their key cogs can stay on the field for 130+ games. Otherwise, their limited depth will be strained and another finish around the .500 mark awaits.

WAGER: (Stale) White Sox Under 86.5 Wins -114 (BetRiv 1/12)

To exceed 86.5 wins, three of those five critical position players must be healthy for 140+ games. Plus the other two need to be healthy enough for 100+. Their top three starting pitchers have to be substantially better than last year to offset the question marks below them. If the planets align, the White Sox are a 90-win team battling Cleveland for the division title. But that’s asking a lot in my opinion. Whether Pedro Grifol’s net impact over Tony La Russa add enough value to offset the pythag is another question I don’t think we can answer at this time. So my position is firmly on under 86.5 wins given that a couple key injuries or lackluster bounceback campaigns will make it difficult to tack on 6 more wins.

Think I’m full of it for expecting more bad injury luck? The markets feel the same way you do. You can snag between +150 and +185 for a White Sox AL Central takeover.

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Minnesota Twins 2023 Win Total: Open 78.5, Now 81.5

2022 Result: Over 77.5 (78-84 / Pythag: 82)

2022 was a step in the right direction for the Minnesota Twins even if the end result doesn’t look like it. The team leaked oil down the stretch due to injuries across the board, squandering their early-season division lead – a short-lived one once July smacked them in the face and set the tone for a bumpy landing. On a personal level, that rough finish yielded a sweaty win total hit for our early-bird 73.5. Bottom line for the 2023 Twins: there’s plenty of work ahead to get this ball club back into successful, division-winning form.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• M. A. Taylor (CF)
• P. Lopez (RHP – SP)
• J. Gallo (OF)
• C. Vasquez (C)
• K. Farmer (INF)

Subtractions:

• L. Arraez (INF)
• G. Urshela (INF)
• G. Sanchez (C)
• D. Bundy (RHP – SP)
• M. Fulmer (RHP – RP)
• C. Archer (RHP – SP)
• T. Duffey (RHP – RP)
• M. Sano (1B/DH)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 84 – 86

— Position Players —

A Twins infield without Carlos Correa would have reverted to a less defined arrangement of utility players with good bats. Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon, Kyle Farmer, and Alex Kiriloff are Rocco Baldelli’s Opening Day infield puzzle pieces while another viable candidate, 2017 #1 overall pick Royce Lewis rehabs a torn ACL. There would be much more disarray without an anchor at shortstop. After failing to finalize deals with the Giants and the Mets, Correa comes back to the place he called home last season on a six-year deal. He stabilizes the infield and recaptures the value that would have been lost had he signed elsewhere.

Carlos Correa’s cascading effects increased the viability of Luis Arraez as a trade chip for prized starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. As good of a hitter Arraez was in Minnesota, the Twins won’t lose his full value with the aforementioned stockpile of capable infielders on the roster. Assuming the offseason has been kind to Jorge Polanco’s knee, the career .270/.334/.445 hitter should maintain his offensive prowess and rebound defensively as their regular second baseman.

Move to the corners and you get more questions than answers at this point. Third and first base are covered in concept as uncertainty swirls around Jose Miranda’s impressive 117 wRC+ rookie debut and Alex Kiriloff’s ongoing battles with injury. Miranda’s offensive projections range from league-average to +20% with unproven fielding at the hot corner. Likewise, manager Rocco Baldelli looks to hide Kiriloff’s lackluster defense at first base – not ideal, but necessary – and better protect him from injury. A healthy AK presents a 20% offensive surplus over his rough 2022 season, helping to offset the loss of Arraez from the lineup. I especially like substituting Christian Vasquez for Gary Sanchez behind the plate with Ryan Jeffers in the backup role again. This catcher swap firmly improves Minnesota’s infield defense without compromising on offense.

An Outfield Fit For a Dice Roll…

Headlined by the dynamic Byron Buxton, Minnesota’s outfield group seems to battle injuries on the regular. The Twins’ 2012 first round pick is joined by several other outfielders with that distinction. Fellow first-rounders Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach have had their share of setbacks, and Nick Gordon lost a lot of traction in AAA during the pandemic year. So adding a veteran defender with projections suitable for a degenerate gambler makes sense, right?

All we’ve known for sure about [Gallo] is that he’s extreme. Since 2000, 1,098 players have batted at least 1,000 times in the majors. Gallo has the 21st-highest walk rate, the second-highest strikeout rate…, the fifth-lowest batting average, and is tied for 11th in ISO with David Ortiz. He is the ultimate three-true-outcomes player.

Joey Gallo Returns to Target Field. Will He Kill Baseballs Again? – Michael Baumann, FanGraphs.com – December 19, 2022

This is a clear buy low gamble on a plus-defender with offensive upside. Expectations for Joey Gallo are in the 5-10% premium above what the Twins outfield mustered in 2022. If he’s a bust, this roster has no shortage of guys to fill a corner outfield without much dropoff. However, opportunities for a platoon approach are limited by the overage of left-handed outfielders on the roster. A lesser-touted January trade that brought in speedy center fielder Michael A. Taylor from Kansas City is significant in its own rights. Before adding him to the roster, Gilbert Celestino stood to be the sole right-handed outfielder behind Byron Buxton. That was a weak link in the Twins’ plan, especially with Kyle Farmer’s lack of experience playing the outfield. I love what Farmer did in Cincinnati – especially as a lefty killer – but he’s more of a depth piece for the infield’s left side.

…With Variance to Match

By now, we all know the highs and lows that Buxton brings to the table. The 29-year-old came out of the gates scorching hot to begin 2022 season. Then the durability issue reared its ugly head. At this point, the Twins take what they can get from Buxton: 4 WAR and .500+ slugging over 80-120 games offers plenty of playing time for backups like Taylor. 4 WAR is still 4 WAR however you want to cut it. But it still strains the roster. Fellow left-hander Max Kepler may not be the power hitter we saw in 2019 but his fielding skills and plate discipline yield solid contributions to this team. Although he battled nagging injuries to his toe then wrist last year, Kepler being in the lineup is almost as critical as Buxton in the face of an iffy Gallo.

Trading for Michael A. Taylor is a shrewd, understated move for several reasons. Experienced right-handed depth in the outfield was lacking, and Taylor brings superb defense matched only by a few – one of those few being Byron Buxton. He can spell Buxton in the field as a way to prolong his 2023 season with an offensive dropoff comparable to Gilberto Celestino or Nick Gordon. If anything, Taylor reliably stabilizes the outfield and creates a softer landing in those periods without Byron. Minnesota’s defense is good to begin with and now gets a bump up with a stronger catcher group via Christian Vasquez. As for their offense, I’m a little more reserved and expect a small dip down with a slight negative bias against right-handed pitching.

— Rotation —

Take one look at the Minnesota 26-man roster and it’s clear that starting pitching has been a recent priority in the trade market. This offseason’s trade for Pablo Lopez came less than a year after dealing for Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and the injured Chris Paddack. Two summers ago, Joe Ryan was brought in from the Rays after Kenta Maeda headed east from the Dodgers. Still, the high-majors pipeline is fairly well stocked with talent gained from other moves.

2023 could be the year in which all of these moves made to bolster the rotation and create depth materializes into a strength for the Twins. That’s a much-needed improvement. This group is one season removed from producing the fourth-least innings in the majors as only two starters pitched more than 120 innings: Dylan Bundy (140.0) and Joe Ryan (147.0). Both Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle missed time due to injury as Kenta Maeda rehabilitated from Tommy John surgery. Fortunately, health and depth outlooks are more positive as Minnesota heads into Spring Training.

Importing an Ace

The market seemed to like the Luis Arraez-Pablo Lopez trade. For example, Caesars Sportsbook upped their win total from 78.5 to 80.0 after the move. This net increase reflects the Twins’ deeper need for a workhorse starter over infield depth, regardless of how good a hitter Arraez is. Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez manning the top of the 2023 rotation creates a sturdy 5+ WAR one-two punch to harass the AL Central with. They aren’t the most exciting pair compared to other teams’ top end, though Lopez and Gray have demonstrated reliability as sub-4.00 FIP righties with deep arsenals. Nothing too sexy though.

Asking for another 2+ WAR season from 26-year-old Joe Ryan isn’t too greedy after delivering a quietly impressive 3.99 FIP/4.35 xFIP initiation as a full-fledged member of the Twins rotation. His upside lies with squeezing out a few more starts and crystallizing around the 4.00 FIP mark with that increased workload. Maturation should balance out some expected BABIP regression as peripherals likes a 3.21 K/BB ratio and 35.4% hard hit rate form a decent baseline. From a macro viewpoint, Ryan and a healthy Tyler Mahle share a lot of similarities. Again, nothing exceptional but enough to contribute 4+ WAR between the two of them. A 9-10 win value out of Minnesota’s top four pitchers already exceeds last season’s figure.

Countering Durability Questions With Depth

The Twins’ unconventional approach to 2022’s thin rotation was to go wide and employ intermediate fixes like Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to survive the season. Neither of those veterans consistently delivered lengthy starts. Only 23 of their combined 54 starts went 5+ innings, placing a burden on the bullpen and eventually broke down as the season went on. This year’s rotation is more robust. Still, the club must have realistic expectations for Kenta Maeda in his first action since 2021. The 34-year-old may be on a short leash with the intent to stretch him deeper into the season. Plus we don’t know the ongoing impacts of Tyler Mahle’s rotator cuff issues.

Battling Maeda’s uncertainty and inevitable injuries elsewhere comes down to ready and able depth. There’s some rumblings about a six-man rotation to spread the workload out. Either way, the Twins have options. Their AAA stockpile of starting pitching includes the likes of Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, and Louie Varland – of which the latter two made their big league debuts in 2022. Ober is the most prepared to jump in line with 31 MLB starts over the last two seasons and a resume that pins him right around the 4.00 FIP mark. A rocky rookie effort from Winder makes him more of an emergency early season fallback, yet should be a viable fill-in down the line as he develops further in the minors. Pablo Lopez tightens up Minnesota’s rotation and leaves less room for spot starts, leading to around 3 additional wins of value from their starting pitching.

— Bullpen —

It wasn’t just the rotation that let the Twins down last year – the bullpen finished the season as a major disappointment. Extra workload spilling over from short starts proved taxing as they clocked the third-most innings in the majors (654.1 IP), blowing 26 saves to only 28 conversions. That small number of saves was dead last, by the way. Even their mid-season acquisition of Orioles closer Jorge Lopez did not turn the bullpen’s woes around. Lopez went from a strong 1.68 ERA, 2.99 FIP/3.10 xFIP in Baltimore to an anemic 4.37 ERA, 4.35 FIP/4.95 xFIP after the trade. Deservedly so, there’s plenty of doubt cast on Jorge’s ability to sustain low-3.00s production as closer or setup man.

One guy that Rocco Baldelli won’t mind a repeat performance from is 25-year-old Jhoan Duran. His major league debut was spectacular, racking up a stellar 2.52 FIP/2.11 xFIP over 67.2 innings. All the underlying numbers look rock solid as well: 61.0% ground balls, 35.0% hard contact, 17.9% swinging strikes, and a 5.56 K/BB ratio. Pure gas and a filthy curve could set this kid up for a bright future in high-leverage spots. And Griffin Jax offers a ray of hope after his second season proved more fruitful than his 2021 debut. A move from the rotation to the bullpen helped slash his 6.47 FIP/5.75 xFIP down to a more palatable 3.17 FIP/3.32 xFIP in 65 relief appearances.

Room For Improvement

Expecting another career season from 35-year-old Caleb Thielbar is unrealistic, though he has been a workhorse out of the bullpen for a couple years now. He joins fellow veteran Emilio Pagan as middle relievers that the club will lean on as younger arms like Duran, Jax, and Jovani Moran develop further. It’s nothing sexy or elite: sneaky talented arms slated for late-inning duties with a bunch of suitable mid-3.00s FIP relievers behind them. Questions about Jorge Lopez cast a shadow on this group as a whole, though Jhoan Duran is there to pick up his slack. 2023’s bolstered rotation should reduce the bullpen’s workload and help stabilize the group over the long haul.

WAGER: (Stale) Twins Over 78.5 Wins -110 (CZR 1/12)

I laid out an early case for my bullish stance on Minnesota in January when Caesars Sportsbook opened their season win totals. The pythag bump is a small factor, but the variance created by Joey Gallo and unknown playing time from Byron Buxton made a one win year-over-year improvement a strong reality in my eyes. Shoring up the rotation with Pablo Lopez strengthens the team with Luis Arraez’ loss being less of a factor with infield depth. The 1.5-win move at Caesars doesn’t leave much margin if you have them more like a .500+ team. Like them more than I do? There’s 3/1 to win the AL Central out there.

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Detroit Tigers 2023 Win Total: Open 70.5, Now 69.5

2022 Result: Under 78.5 (66-96 / Pythag: 63)

Under bettors rejoiced as the Tigers defied the market with a double-digit win total miss. Detroit’s fielding and relief pitching led the way, but it couldn’t overcome a lineup with offensive production at a level lower than anything this franchise has seen in about a decade. Even El Mago couldn’t conjure up enough mojo to give the Tigers a shot at a .500 record. Young talent remains the key to this club’s success in 2023 with Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene in the lineup and arms like Matt Manning, Beau Briekse, and Tarik Skubal dotting the rotation. Unfortunately – or fortunately if you ask the fan base – the on-field product eventually cost general manager Al Avila his job.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• N. Maton (INF/OF)
• M. Vierling (OF)
• M. Lorenzen (RHP – SP)
• M. Boyd (LHP – RP)

Subtractions:

• G. Soto (LHP – RP)
• K. Clemens (3B)
• J. Jimenez (RHP – RP)
• A. Chafin (LHP – RP)
• W. Peralta (RHP – RP)
• W. Castro (INF)
• V. Reyes (OF)
• H. Castro (INF)
• J. Candelario (3B)
• T. Barnhart (C)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 61 – 75

ICYMI, Comerica Park made a strategic reconfiguration of its outfield walls this offseason. The Ilitch Companies News Hub touts the benefits of the changes to include:

• Reward hitter outcomes on balls hit to the deepest parts of the park
• Maintain the high number of extra-base hits on balls in play to the gaps, resulting in action on the basepaths
• Lowered wall height encouraging more electric defensive plays such as home run robberies

Handicappers should adjust Comerica’s park factors accordingly. Just don’t overdo it…

— Rotation —

The promise of Detroit’s up-and-coming arms has been nothing short of a bust over the last few years. Injuries plagued the likes of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Spencer Turnbull. Other than the 30-year-old Turnbull, these pitchers are in that sweet spot of 25 to 26 years of age. Unforunately, Mize will miss the upcoming season after Tommy John surgery and Skubal is expected to be shelved for a good chunk of 2023 after flexor tendon surgery last August. This year can’t be worse than the last, right? We’re talking about Tigers starters having spent 823 days on the IL – 4th most in the league!

Spencer Turnbull’s return to action comes with uncertainty after his positive trajectory was interrupted by TJ surgery in 2021. Although he appears to be on track this offseason, workload expectations must be tempered to low-100s innings for the ground ball contact righty. Likewise, Matt Manning looks to be in a similar place for 2023: low-100s innings with slightly lower effectiveness as a less-experienced major leaguer. These are positives for a club with bad juju, after all. Although 2+ WAR for the Turnbull-Manning pair does not move the needle all that much, it represents more than half of the rotation’s value in 2022.

Bring In the Veterans…

Even last offseason’s big acquisition Eduardo Rodriguez took his lumps. His first season in Detroit was turbulent to say the least but is allegedly squared away for 2023. With strikeouts down, walks up, and hard contact up, 2023 is a litmus test for the remainder of his contract in Detroit. Projections seem to be taking a neutral stance on E-Rod around the 4.00-FIP mark over a full season. That may seem unimpressive except Rodriguez’ 2 WAR combined with contributions from Turnbull and Manning put the Detroit rotation at a valuation where it left off in 2022.

This offseason, the Tigers took on two new one-year contracts with converted starter Michael Lorenzen and Matthew Boyd, who returns home after an injury-filled 2022 season in San Francisco and Seattle. Boyd spent his first six full MLB seasons in Detroit, peaking in 2019 with a career-high 185.1 innings and 3.2 WAR. Uncertainty after elbow issues and aging in general considerably depress expectations to the 1+ WAR range much like Lorenzen. The former Cincinnati Reds bullpen workhorse got his first shot as a full-time starter with the Angels last year but made just 18 starts. Detroit looks to get a handful more starts out of Michael, whose full arsenal of pitches includes a very effective two-seamer that induces a lot of ground balls.

…And a Splash of Inexperience

26-year-old Tarik Skubal should be back in action this summer if his rehab progresses as planned. Last year was trending positively with a 2.96 FIP/3.40 xFIP in 21 starts before he was sidelined. So you have to gauge Skubal’s 2023 cautiously – almost like splitting the difference between his teeth-cutting 2021 season and an improved 2022. His sub-4.00s FIP August and September should show the club plenty to evaluate moving forward as Tarik contributes another win to the mix upon return.

Plus the Tigers have a couple break glass in case of emergency type of starters who made their MLB debuts in 2022: Alex Faedo and Beau Brieske. Faedo’s control issues and Brieske’s unimpressive underlying numbers should not equate to much this season other than spot starts and relief work. However, a new up-and-comer could make his mark after an impressive 2022 in the minors and Arizona Fall League. Left-hander Joey Wentz improved his command and gained confidence, something that new front office head Scott Harris has to like as Detroit tries to hold together a viable rotation for the year ahead. The starting pitching situation won’t be dramatically better in 2023 yet still offers 4+ wins of improvement over last year’s low bar.

— Bullpen —

There’s bittersweet irony when a 66-win team ends up with a 5.4-WAR bullpen that was seventh-highest in the majors. 3.43 ERA ranked eighth-best in the MLB too. 38 saves is respectable with so few wins, plus the high value came from seven individual relievers who contributed 0.5 or more WAR. So it wasn’t an all eggs in one basket situation. But three notables who made significant contributions last year are gone, leaving Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Will Vest, and company some big shoes to fill:

• Gregory Soto (0.6 WAR): Converted 30 of 33 saves, though very fortunate to fade the long ball; 3.28 ERA, 4.59 FIP/4.21 xFIP
• Joe Jimenez (1.4 WAR): Biggest offseason loss; his 33.3% K rate yielded a 2.00 FIP/2.70 xFIP in 62 appearances
• Andrew Chafin (0.9 WAR): Another workhorse season rebounding from a lost 2020 with prime ground ball success

Looking at depth charts right now, Alex Lange is slotted in as closer with Jason Foley and Jose Cisnero in setup roles. Lange and Foley earned their keep last year with a combined 123.1 IP and 8-4 record, good enough for over 1/4 of the bullpen’s value. I’m seeing more confidence in Alex Lange repeating with an impressive season – somewhere in the mid-3.00s and saves along the way. Jason Foley, however, has a couple things tugging at projections. A .354 BABIP bodes better fortunes ahead but what to make about that 4.0% HR/FB? He and Gregory Soto were big contributors to the MLB’s 3rd lowest HR/FB rate – right there with the truly loaded bullpens of the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers. Comerica Park plays a big part in home run avoidance though. So Foley could replace last year’s value after all.

Detroit still loses over half of its bullpen value with Soto, Jimenez, and Chafin out the door. That leaves a ton of inexperience and shaky profiles comprising the bulk of this 2023 edition. It looks like the Tigers will have a few workhorses in the ‘pen, otherwise, this unit lacks a ton of certainty and stands to lose 3-4 wins of value.

— Position Players —

Injuries may have burst their rotation’s bubble but Detroit’s failure to launch offensively resulted from pure lack of execution. The lineup posted league-worst 557 runs, .346 slugging, and 81 wRC+. 57 stolen bases was third-lowest in the majors along with a fourth-highest 24.1% strikeout rate that garnered a next-to-bottom .286 OBP. There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that this offense flat out stunk. It certainly made a fool out of me to think this group “shapes up to be a more consistent, powerful, and well-rounded offense with so much coming together“. At least the defense was improved!

The bright future of 2020’s #1 overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson fizzled in a hurry as both sides of his mid-season demotion to AAA Toledo were nothing short of a bust. At this point, manager AJ Hinch has no choice but to run the slugger back out there as his regular first baseman. You hate to say this is a make-or-break season for a 23-year-old second-year player…but it is. Simply getting to league average gives his club a nice bump over a dismal .203/.285/.319, 76 wRC+ rookie season. Fortunately, fellow rookie Riley Greene made a positive impact after starting the year on the IL. His power numbers weren’t quite there (.253/.321/.362) and 28.7% K rate is a bit suspect, yet consensus projections see a several percentage point increase at the plate and more good fielding in center field.

Dealing With Widespread Turnover

With upside awaiting the Tigers’ first round pick duo of Greene and Torkelson, AJ Hinch has a lot of turnover to reconcile coming into the 2023 season. Looking for a silver lining? All six key losses were big parts of the team’s overall struggles at the plate, so perhaps Detroit benefits from the cliched addition by subtraction?

DET Position Players Lost in Offseason, 2022

	POS	PA	LINE	wRC+
J. Candelario	3B	467	.217/.272/.361	80
H. Castro	INF	443	.271/.300/.381	94
W. Castro	INF	392	.241/.284/.367	86
V. Reyes	OF	336	.254/.289/.362	85
R. Grossman*	OF	320	.205/.313/.282	78
T. Barnhart	C	308	.221/.287/.267	63

Replacing over 2,200 plate appearances is a tall task regardless of those hitters’ past performance. Catcher Tucker Barnhart’s worst season both offensively and defensively opens the door for a better-hitting Eric Haase, though his work behind the plate leaves a lot to be desired. President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris’ trade of Gregory Soto to the Phillies for Nick Maton and Matt Vierling also included a lesser-known name in Donny Sands. Career minor leaguer Sands could get his chance to back up Haase with Jake Rogers rebounding from Tommy John surgery a couple seasons ago. Ironically, catcher was actually one of the better position groups for the Tigers last season primarily due to Eric Haase’s 112 wRC+. It’s questionable whether they will improve defensively unless Rogers makes a full recovery and/or Sands surprisingly impresses.

Losing both Castros and Jeimer Candelario passes up benefits from their potential rebound seasons. Fortunately, Harold Castro’s poor defense and the threesome’s lackluster hitting leave plenty of room for improvement. I don’t know if Nick Maton and Matt Vierling are the answers but they replace the flexibility lost with the Castros. Yet they pose more questions about their true abilities. Boil down the infield issues from 2022 and the outlook becomes much more clear: rebounds from Jonathan Schoop, Javier Baez, and Spencer Torkelson are crucial to achieving any noticeable improvement. Baez realistically has about 10% offensive upside, while Schoop and Torkelson could improve by 20-30% each. Unfortunately, Miguel Cabrera’s final season sets up to be a platoon role with someone like left-handed hitter Kerry Carpenter.

Outfield Leading the Way?

With the young, athletic, and healthy Riley Greene in center, Detroit’s outfield has a considerable amount of upside this season too. Greene helps keep the likes of Akil Baddoo and Austin Meadows in the corners where they are much better suited to defend. I hate to overemphasize the importance of these two, though the numbers don’t lie. They have very good speed on the base paths and should merge with Riley to become an above-average offensive group in 2023 – assuming Akil’s performance splits the difference between his 2021 breakout and 2022 dud.

The only thing that may hold Austin Meadows back this season is health after a rough patch last season. Between him and fellow lefty Akil Baddoo, the Detroit outfield can take advantage of right-handed pitching with Matt Vierling rotating in as a platoon bat. Vierling is anything but a lock to be a regular contributor in a support role though. All that the Tigers need from him is to offset Baddoo’s brutal splits against southpaws and help balance the lineup throughout a long season. Maybe it’s a stretch to adjust the offense firmly upwards and expect close to 10 wins from the position player corps. Maybe not. The bar was so low last year that it’s almost impossible to repeat that performance. Plus their defense should continue to be fine with a healthy outfield.

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Kansas City Royals 2023 Win Total: Open 69.5

2022 Result: Under 75.5 (65-97 / Pythag: 64)

Not to be outdone by the Detroit Tigers, the Royals boasted one of the youngest rosters in the majors behind familiar divisional foe Cleveland. Phenoms Bobby Witt, Jr. and MJ Melendez accumulated valuable playing time as rookies while starter Brady Singer took another step in his young career. The end result wasn’t quite as rosy though. Widespread disappointment is a fair sentiment as K.C. missed their mark by ten games. It doesn’t help when the underlying statistics showed little-to-no growth, netting nine less wins than 2021. Failure to convert talent into wins was grounds to bounce manager Mike Matheney and bring in Tampa Bay bench coach Matt Quatraro to get this franchise out of the cellar.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• J. Taylor (LHP – RP)
• A. Chapman (LHP – RP)
• J. Lyles (RHP – SP)
• R. Yarbrough (LHP)

Subtractions:

• A. Mondesi (SS)
• M. A. Taylor (CF)
• R. O’Hearn (1B)

BetCrushers 2023 Win Projection Range: 66 – 71

— Position Players —

Despite a changing of the guard with President of Baseball Operations Dayton Moore and manager Mike Matheney out this offseason, the Royals appear content to run their homegrown lineup back out there in 2023. The offense showed rare signs of life and there’s a ton of upside moving forward. The bar has been low in Kansas City since their World Series seasons, so moving the needle to league average requires a lot of internal growth after dealing Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield last summer. Those moves paved the way for a new wave of young talent to post MLB highs in plate appearances and home runs last year.

KCR Hitters Making MLB Debuts in 2022

	PA	HR	Slash Line	WAR
N. Eaton	122	1	.264/.331/.387	0.9
M. Massey	194	4	.243/.307/.376	0.6
MJ Melendez	534	18	.217/.313/.393	-0.2
V. Pasquantino	298	10	.295/.383/.450	1.5
N. Pratto*	182	7	.184/.271/.386	-0.3
D. Waters	109	5	.240/.324/.479	0.4
B. Witt, Jr.	632	20	.254/.294/.428	2.3

This collective upside is really tough to project for the full 2023 season though. I can say with enough confidence there will be plenty of playing time to go around for these second-year players as only a few veterans stand to block them. Trading the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi to Boston likely spared Hunter Dozier from starting the season in a support role. Somebody has to join Bobby Witt, Jr. on the left side, after all. Polling some of the best player projection systems in the business yields a net positive around 2-6 wins from these upstarts, representing most of the Royals’ offensive improvement.

The Veteran Glue

Counting on so many players heading into their second MLB seasons requires a big leap of faith. This is where the Salvador Perez and Nicky Lopez veteran contingent comes into play. A healthy Salvy pairs well with Melendez, especially if MJ fails to improve behind the plate. At this point, you almost have to expect MJ Melendez to get shuffled into a corner outfield/DH role unless things drastically improve. Respectable catching from Melendez is really icing on the top for the Royals. Fielding is also a concern with lauded rookie Bobby Witt, Jr. I’ll be keeping my eyes on how these two progress as defenders through the season.

My biggest concern amongst the remaining veterans is the precipitous decline of Nicky Lopez. Sure, we all saw some regression coming after his gonzo 5.9-WAR 2021 campaign, but that much? Declining by 50% at the plate and losing defensive value weighed on the team. To make matters worse, Michael A. Taylor’s superb fielding skills were shipped within the division to Minnesota for a pair of young relievers. Someone speedy is needed to patrol Kauffman Stadium’s big outfield in his absence. And that someone could be Drew Waters, a 24-year-old prospect from the Braves who may add a little more at the plate but will have a hard time living up to Taylor’s high bar in the field. A healthy Salvator Perez and improvement from Bobby Witt, Jr. should improve the team’s infield defense, though any of those gains are washed out by losing Michael A. Taylor in the outfield.

— Rotation —

Kansas City’s struggle to gain traction in the AL Central was certainly not aided by a bottom-five rotation. Positive momentum hinges on the infusion of eleven-year MLB veteran Jordan Lyles and left-hander Ryan Yarbrough into the mix. But before we get too far into the future, let’s go back to my 2022 outlook for the Royals’ top three starting pitchers:

• Brad Keller: It’s hard for me to forget him nearly hanging my Opening Day bet out to dry. Outside of that, I’m concerned that his rookie magic is long gone and I don’t know how to project him after a 44.3% hard hit season and massive .347 BABIP as a sinker-baller.
• Brady Singer: Singer’s upside is primarily associated with a greater workload despite giving off some American Psycho vibes last year. If he stays precise with his fastball/slider combo, hitters play right into the strength of the Royals’ infield defense.
• Kris Bubic: Last year’s 103.2 innings in the rotation were brutalized by home runs, though his 5.60 FIP/4.44 xFIP calls for positive regression and more value to this group.

The Brad Keller days in Kansas City are dwindling in step with his production value. Or is it the other way around? Keller’s rough BABIP luck from 2021 eased but batters still made 41.4% hard contact and his 0.7 WAR was yet another notch down from a promising 2018 rookie season. Kris Bubic moved into the rotation for all but one relief appearance with limited success. The guy just could not shake hard contact, walks, or the long ball; an ugly trifecta. His days as a regular starter for the Royals could be numbered after K.C. welcomed back Zack Greinke and Bubic’s overall failure to take a step forward in his young career. Joining Bubic on the struggle bus was a revolving door involving the likes of Jonathan Heasley and Jackson Kowar – both of whom will likely start 2023 at AAA Omaha.

Looking For Good News

There was a bright spot in last year’s rotation: de facto ace Brady Singer. The 26-year-old righty achieved personal bests in innings (153.1), walk rate (5.6%), FIP/xFIP (3.58/3.30), and WAR (2.9). Almost exclusively a sinker/slider pitcher, Singer juiced up the slider and regained effectiveness of the two-seamer. Job #1 for the third-year major leaguer is building off of 2022’s success by getting to that 30-start threshold. 2023 shapes up as a pivotal season in Brady’s career with expectations to balance effectiveness with greater workload. That’s good enough to stay in the 3.0 WAR ballpark.

Journeyman Jordan Lyles’ return to starting rotations in Texas and Baltimore proved that he can still work some innings. Reemphasizing the sinker of years’ past helped get Lyles back below the dreaded 5.00 FIP mark (4.40 FIP/4.39 xFIP) for the first time since 2019. Hopefully Kansas City’s expectation for another mid-4.00s season is tempered by a strong chance of him falling short. But when the Bubic-Heasley-Lynch trio lurks in the shadows, Lyles taking a healthy share of the workload doesn’t sound quite as terrible. Jordan offers less effectiveness and greater bulk as compared to Zack Greinke, but they’re both glue pieces holding things together in the meantime. I don’t want to be too much of a downer with Ryan Yarbrough though. It’s worth a shot for K.C. with limited upside on a cheap $3M deal to get 1.0 WAR or more, assuming he can crack 150 IP.

How Does It Get Better?

For better or worse, healthy versions of Jordan Lyles and Zack Greinke buffer the rotation from needing more unproven arms just to make it through the season. The Royals have enough time to experiment with potential 2024 starters like Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh, or Jonathan Bowman. Late call-ups of the latter two may not materialize, especially as Daniel Lynch was the first to be bumped when Greinke was re-signed. In the meantime, K.C. has four starters nailed down in Singer, Lyles, Greinke, and Yarbrough; Keller making his last effort to stay in the rotation; and a hodgepodge of others seeking a larger role in 2024.

Maybe I’m being too optimistic with Daniel Lynch after cutting his teeth with 27 starts last year. Hard contact was his bugaboo but a high BABIP and modest underlying numbers (4.30 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA) lead to the potential for him being the first man up to fill any gaps. A start in AAA instead of the Opening Day roster makes sense in the big picture though. Regardless, enough incremental improvement from the rotation should net a couple extra wins for the Royals. After last year, it’s hard not to expect some improvement.

— Bullpen —

After a slight downgrade to the bullpen last season, I see more status quo in this appropriately below-average bullpen. Adding Aroldis Chapman and lefty Josh Taylor adds some oomph to the group, though Chapman is no longer the dominant reliever of the 2010s. Late-inning relievers Scott Barlow and Dylan Coleman offer variability between Barlow’s secondary pitches and Coleman’s hard-throwing fastball/slider program. The reality is, these two plus Chapman are mid-3.00 FIP guys holding down a group that largely struggled with control – Coleman and his 12.8% walk rate being a prime example. I’m personally optimistic for an Amir Garrett renaissance but his velocity and slider effectiveness have not been the same since making his mark with the Reds in 2019. No need to belabor the point here…limited bullpen improvement, probably nothing that moves the needle significantly.

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2023 AL Central Projected Standings

1. Cleveland Guardians (86-76)
2. Minnesota Twins (85-77)
3. Chicago White Sox (80-82)
4. Kansas City Royals (67-95)
5. Detroit Tigers (65-97)

Leading Off

The first one is in the books! Don’t want to miss the rest of our division previews? Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for more, follow us on Twitter, or subscribe below for email notifications: