Although there’s no Playing the Odds NASCAR Style podcast this week, we still dug into the 2022 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway for betting angles. It’s the first points-paying short track race of the season so we’re dealing with yet another first with this Next Gen ride. The Clash at the Coliseum exhibition race may have some clues but I don’t put too much stock into that one. So where do we go for answers? Phoenix is a good data point in the current environment plus we have intel from the flat shorter track races of 2021 (data courtesy of ifantasyrace.com). So let’s dive in and find some winners!
Playing the 2022 Toyota Owners 400 – Featured Handicaps for Richmond
Concept #1: Fade Kyle Larson
In 2021, the concept of fading Kyle Larson on a weekly basis may not have been the healthiest thing for your bankroll. 2022 has ushered in the concept of greater parity with the Next Gen car, which appears to be a reality in the early goings of the Cup Series season. Larson already snagged a win at Auto Club Speedway, marking one of three Hendrick Motorsports victories in the six races to date. That’s not exactly parity from the Victory Lane perspective though an analysis of Top 10 finishes shows that up-and-coming groups like Trackhouse Racing have become frequent listings on those lists.
Fading Kyle Larson at Richmond isn’t necessarily an outcome of parity as much as it is a relative weakness for the 2021 Cup Series Champion. Available matchups with the Champ involve other top tier organizations like his fellow HMS drivers, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Team Penske. Even in Larson’s title season, the #5 car ranked 7th overall on the shorter flat tracks of Richmond, Phoenix, and New Hampshire. The disappointing Richmond spring race of 2021 was an outlier performance – so when you remove it and look only at the four others, Larson had an average total speed ranking of 4.75 vs. 7.8 with the first Richmond race factored in. That’s strong.
Martin Truex, Jr. +100 > Kyle Larson
Chase Elliott is one driver who I don’t mind squaring off against Kyle Larson with at Richmond. I have not moved on that matchup yet, though I took a dog position behind MTJ against the #5 team this week. Truex ranked 2nd last year behind Denny Hamlin on the shorter flat tracks. And that included the rain-induced wipeout that smacked the Gibbs Toyotas early at New Hampshire. To be fair, when we remove that asterisk (to borrow a phrase from Ryan at ifantasyrace.com) MTJ’s speed rankings at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond last season still stay ahead of Larson’s adjusted average.
It’s been since spring of 2018 when Larson outfinished Truex at Richmond, though both drivers have gone through team changes in the meantime. That is said without overemphasizing prior years due to the impacts of the Next Gen car. Aside from concerns with him in this new car, I see strength in backing MTJ in this spot. That strength is a result of winning 3 of the last 5 races here and 6 straight Top 5 finishes.
Both drivers busted out at Phoenix a few weeks ago and when it comes to 2022 as a whole, I could make a case for Truex being more consistent with 3 Top 8 finishes in the last 4 races – Phoenix being the miss. Larson won at Auto Club but has struggled recently in his last 3 races. Maybe the #5 is due. He is the Champ after all. Then again, maybe the #19 is due. Either way, give me Truex on one of his better tracks in recent years.
Concept #2: Back Joey Logano
Dating back to 2013 win, Joey Logano has Top 10 finishes in 14 of the last 17 Richmond races. Additionally, 7 of his last 9 here have come with 100+ ratings and Top 5 finishes. How about the aggregated shorter flat track races last year? Joey held the third fastest average including a meh finale at Phoenix. But he’s a Team Penske driver and his matchup opponents are far from slouches…
Joey Logano -115 > William Byron
Willy B has the superspeedway-esque Atlanta win this season, otherwise the going has been choppy for the #24 squad. This track type has not fallen within his wheelhouse – yet – as evidenced by the Cup Series’ 13th best total speed average across those five races in 2021. At Richmond specifically, Byron has a single 100+ rating in 7 races with his best finish (P7) coming last spring. William has yet to beat Joey on this 3/4-mile oval even though his speed got him pretty close last spring. I’ll take Joey’s proficiency at Richmond and on this track type plus his current form: 3 Top 10 finishes in the 4 races before COTA last week.
Joey Logano -110 > Kyle Busch
I’m furthering my Logano angle by fading El Cucaracha, Kyle Busch. And I say that with affection. Kyle has been persistent in coming back from multiple incidents to produce four straight good finishes to start the 2022 season. Atlanta was tough on the #18 Toyota and a last lap spin at COTA kept him from another Top 10 finish. But much like Kyle Larson, Busch is a damn good driver and one you can rarely count out. This is arguably the weakest matchup bet of the three I’ve made so far notably because Kyle was right behind Joey in the 2021 total speed rankings for this track type. Both drivers have so many 100+ rated races at Richmond, especially with Busch winning both contests in 2018. Perhaps this is the slightest of edges, but I’ll side with Joey’s massive performances in the last three at The Action Track!
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