There’s one small problem that comes with rolling out divisional previews on the early side in an offseason like this. Quite a few impact trades and free agent signings occurred after the early editions were published and my win total bets were booked. So with Opening Day right around the corner, now’s the time for errors, omissions, and key updates in the MLB 2022 Preseason Wrap-up. Links to the original preview articles and all their ugly details can be found in each section with directional notations of each team’s projection changes. BOL this season!
NL WEST (published 3/13)
Projected Order of Finish
- Los Angeles Dodgers (101-61) 🔻
- San Diego Padres (86-76) 🔻
- San Francisco Giants (80-82) 🔺
- Colorado Rockies (63-99)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (62-100) 🔺
WAGER: Dodgers Over 94.5 Wins -115 (3/13 DraftKings)
WAGER: Giants Under 89.5 Wins -114 (3/13 BetRivers)
The biggest news out of the NL West after March 13th was Los Angeles’ signing of first baseman Freddie Freeman. This past Friday, the Dodgers swapped outfielder AJ Pollock for White Sox closer Craig Kimbrel. I’m happy with my over position with L.A. though the market popping close to 100 wins makes any action on them at this price a tough pill to swallow.
Second biggest news out of the division is courtesy of a wacky set of circumstances. Fernando Tatis, Jr.’s extended IL stint to start the season via an alleged motorcycle accident in the D.R. dings the Padres quite a few games. Ha-Seong Kim looks to get the Opening Day nod at shortstop with CJ Abrams likely starting the year in the minors. It surely helps that the NL now has a designated hitter – and so does San Diego, having traded pitching prospect Justin Lange for Luke Voit. San Diego’s woes undoubtedly helps the Giants, as what should be tough years for the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Kris Bryant helps the Rox but I’m still down on this plucky Colorado squad in 2022. At least down enough to stay away from the bottom part of the division.
NL CENTRAL (published 3/15)
Projected Order of Finish
- Milwaukee Brewers (87-75) 🔻
- St. Louis Cardinals (84-78)
- Chicago Cubs (72-90) 🔺
- Cincinnati Reds (71-91) 🔺
- Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98)🔺
WAGER: Cubs Under 73.5 Wins -110 (3/13 DraftKings)
If there is any win total that I “regret” playing as soon as those futures markets opened it has to be the Cubs. My updated win total range drifted up as they signed Seiya Suzuki – one of the short favorites to win Rookie of the Year – and a rash of minor veteran bullpen additions. That cost me a few wins as the market moved accordingly. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh did very little of note in the past couple weeks. A couple exceptions include the Reds signing outfielder Tommy Pham and the Pirates starting the season with promising top prospect Oneil Cruz in AAA. Apparently his defense isn’t quite ready for…the Pirates?
Otherwise, top billing in the NL Central stays with the Brewers and Cardinals. St. Louis brought home Albert Pujols for his obligatory ride off into the sunset – an honor made possible by the NL’s designated hitter rule change. To stay one step ahead, Milwaukee took advantage of their extra spot in the lineup by inking Andrew McCutcheon. The Central is a two-horse race once again.
AL CENTRAL (published 3/18)
Projected Order of Finish
- Chicago White Sox (93-69) 🔻
- Minnesota Twins (85-77) 🔺
- Cleveland Indians (78-84) 🔻
- Kansas City Royals (74-88)
- Detroit Tigers (74-88) 🔺
WAGER: Twins Over 74.5 Wins -114 (3/13 BetRivers)
WAGER: Guardians Over 73.5 Wins -114 (3/13 BetRivers)
My timing with publishing the AL Central preview was oh so close – literally hours before the Twins picked up the free agent of the offseason: shortstop Carlos Correa. This move boosted them into second place in the division according to my projections, especially with the Guardians’ win range having a lower floor. I don’t hate my over position with Cleveland as much as it doesn’t inspire me. The downside with this wager is the risk of trading away a key piece like Jose Ramirez before the trade deadline. The upside is that Detroit and Kansas City are still a year away from being .500 teams, though I am excited to see young talent like Bobby Witt, Jr., Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson finally make the big league rosters.
AL EAST (published 3/20)
Projected Order of Finish
- New York Yankees (101-61) 🔺
- Toronto Blue Jays (93-69) 🔻
- Tampa Bay Rays (88-74) 🔻
- Boston Red Sox (88-74) 🔺
- Baltimore Orioles (64-98) 🔻
WAGER: Orioles Over 57.5 Wins -113 (3/13 BetRivers)
The premier rivalry of the AL East is alive and well. Boston has absolutely no interest in backing down from their surprise 2021 season as they brought Trevor Story into their infield in addition to veteran high-leverage reliever Jake Diekman. The Red Sox’ upgrades mean an even tougher division for a bottom feeder like Baltimore as much as it does their fellow contenders. Although this makes my Orioles over ticket worse, I’m still optimistic they reach 60 wins. It’s a numbers game and I’ll be living it for six months.
AL WEST (published 3/22)
Projected Order of Finish
- Houston Astros (93-69) 🔻
- Los Angeles Angels (87-75) 🔻
- Seattle Mariners (83-79) 🔺
- Texas Rangers (75-87) 🔺
- Oakland Athletics (67-95) 🔻
Apparently I am dreadfully low on the Mariners this year after reading others’ win total breakdowns for the AL West. Hell, my projections as of March 22nd had already baked in their big score from the Reds. Since I originally may have lowballed the amount of playing time that their highly-touted outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez should get after an eye-catching Spring Training, I crunched the numbers and voila! The M’s get another W. Seattle is upgraded this season without a doubt – I’m just too hung up on the amount of regression I expect their lineup and bullpen carryovers to experience.
The Mariners are the true threat to my Houston with a splash of Los Angeles division futures play I put on during the lockout. Back in “those days” an Astros even money price was still available, so anything on the board now makes that a moot point. Call me a fool but I’m optimistic that the Angels’ rotation can be overcome by their powerful lineup – when they’re healthy, of course. Not much has changed the trajectories of Texas and Oakland, who stand to cross paths as both teams are committed to going in opposite directions.
NL EAST (published 3/29)
Projected Order of Finish
- Atlanta Braves (93-69) 🔺
- New York Mets (90-72) 🔻
- Philadelphia Phillies (87-75) 🔻
- Miami Marlins (78-84)
- Washington Nationals (68-94)
Not a whole lot changed in the NL East since publishing our sixth and final division preview on March 29th. Except for Friday’s little nugget: a significant setback for New York’s 2x Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom. If anything, this provides a little breathing room for the Braves to win the division even though competition from the Mets and Phillies should still be stiff.
Be Ready For Opening Day – Thursday, April 7th!!!
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