I owe a lot to the AL West for being our preseason futures cash cow once again as the Houston Astros picked up where they left off in the 2020 postseason. The division title got very interesting down the stretch as Oakland’s second-half fizzle coupled with an overlooked Seattle club that came out of nowhere. Did the 2021 season signal a changing of the guard between these two challengers, or will a healthy Mike Trout combine forces with American League MVP Shohei Ohtani to upset the apple cart in 2022? One thing we know from the offseason is that pressure will come from multiple directions as Texas, Seattle, and Los Angeles all made power moves this offseason.

This is one in a series of six Divisional Futures Previews for the 2022 MLB season – each a combination of art, science, and everything in between resting on player projections from some of the sharpest minds in statistical analysis – and the starting point for our season-long and daily handicaps. This annual tradition is an incremental process from season to season that’s full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of DraftKings.)

2021 Division Winner: Houston Astros

2021 AL West Final Standings

1. Houston Astros (95-67)
2. Seattle Mariners (90-72)
3. Oakland Athletics (86-76)
4. Los Angeles Angels (77-85)
5. Texas Rangers (60-102)

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Houston Astros 2022 Win Total: Open 92.5

2021 Result: Over 86.5 (95-67 / Pythag = 101)

Whether you love ’em, hate ’em, or somewhere in between – the Houston Astros battled for another shot at a World Series Championship. Though they fell just short of the title, it’s the way that the Astros marched through the AL West and the playoffs that was impressive. Then the reality of the offseason hit when standout shortstop Carlos Correa hit the open market. Though the cupboards are anything but empty in Houston. Has general manager James Click put the club in position to make another run? Or is the rising tide in the West catching up too quickly?

Key Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Hector Neris – RHP (RP)
• Nico Goodrum – INF

Subtractions:

• Carlos Correa – SS
• Zack Greinke – RHP (SP)
• Brooks Raley – LHP (RP)
• Yimi Garcia – RHP (RP)

BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 92 – 97

— Position Players —

Something tells me that this Astros offense is ready to explode again. Despite a short season of average production at the plate, Houston flexed their muscles in the playoff and flashed back to their World Champion years.

2021 AL West Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – March 2, 2021

I was far from the only one in the camp that felt strongly about the Astros lineup heading into 2021. They crushed a league-leading 116 wRC+ and third highest .444 SLG behind Toronto and Boston, pushing their way to the postseason. They have been better in recent years – extracurriculars or not – though the 2022 lineup is full of quality homegrown talent. We’re talking about Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, and the organization’s #1 prospect, Jeremy Pena. No matter what you think about this specific organization, you have to respect their draft and minor league development programs.

Houston Astros Offense (2015-2021)

	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017*	2016
wRC+	116	99	125	109	121	101
SLG	.444	.408	.495	.425	.478	.417

All this does not go without saying that Houston no longer has (or needs) Carlos Correa – their 1st overall draft pick in 2012. So I’ll pump the breaks and acknowledge the impacts of losing the All-Star shortstop and his career year. A healthy season meant that Correa was on the field to hammer 26 home runs with a lineup-churning .366 OBP. My kind of hitter right there. Hopes are very high for 24-year-old shortstop Jeremy Pena to be the next Carlos Correa, although Pena sure as hell isn’t going to replace 5.8 WAR in Year One. Ironically, Carlos reaching the 5 WAR plateau in the second and third seasons of his career serves as precedence for the next big thing to be really good, really soon.

Picking Up the Slack

Until Jeremy Pena gets fully acclimated to the majors, the Astros will take a hit defensively. The delta between Carlos Correa’s career-high 20 DRS and the fielding of Pena/utility guy Aledmys Diaz will do that. I expect Houston’s defense to be a top ten group this season – not top 5 like last year. Losing Correa’s 2021 productivity is one thing, then you have a few players that are downright tricky to gauge. Centerfielder Chas McCormick has the tall task of backing up a 14-homer rookie season that featured a .341 BABIP and 32.5% strikeout rate. I trust that he’ll get plenty of opportunities to prove out as an everyday starter, especially if he plays the field like last year.

Can we expect the age-defiant Yuli Gurriel – who continues to befuddle ZIPS – to put up another 130 wRC+ season? The guy hit .319/.383/.462 at the age of 37, after all. What about Alex Bregman and his offseason wrist surgery? If that fix is successful, Houston gets a very good hitter and his pop back. Maybe not quite like the 2018-2019 days though. Regardless, the guy brings so much value to the team when he’s on the field. A healthy wrist easily means 4+ WAR from the 2nd overall pick of 2015.

There is still plenty of stability in the lineup sans Correa. Second baseman Jose Altuve and left fielder Michael Brantley are dependable 120-130 wRC+ guys with .350+ OBPs, even with a reduction in the 34-year-old Brantley’s workload. Those numbers are also a reasonable expectation for left-handed hitting phenom Yordan Alvarez after delivering a .277/.346/.531 slash line with 33 home runs across a full season. Sign me up for a few more bombs and a tick up in OBP from this powerful hitter who may have left his injury concerns in the past. That said, it is hard to deny that the sum of all these parts is still quite significant. Count on this offense to be very good once again – just not heads-and-shoulders better than everyone else.

— Rotation —

It’s been easy to forget about two-time Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander. After nearly two seasons on the shelf, the man is slated to make his return to the mound this season. Verlander’s last two complete seasons featured back-to-back 200+ inning, 6+ WAR efforts with filthy 7+ K/BB ratios. Sure, there are legitimate questions challenging his “new normal” as a 39-year-old post Tommy John surgery – and whether MLB’s crackdown on artificially-induced spin rates will affect Justin’s competitive edge. Conservative estimates for his 2022 season are in the 30-start, mid-3.00 FIP range – an upgrade over the departed Zack Greinke’s 2021 production.

Houston is in position to gain productivity from a rotation consisting of Verlander and a stout group of 20-somethings. The key question here is how much productivity will be gained. Although it may not feature any obvious Cy Young award candidates, this unit is very well rounded. One concern I have the creep of Lance McCullers’ and Framber Valdez’ walk rates – a potential red flag unless they remain effective in stranding runners with sustained 55% – 60% ground ball rates. Assuming that Houston’s #2 & #3 starters amass 350 innings, they can cobble together 6 WAR. There’s already some doubt that McCullers will be ready for Opening Day.

Harnessing the Talent

25-year-old Luis Garcia and 26-year-old Jose Urquidy provided great support for last year’s rotation where many of us had questions. Garcia’s rookie season and Urquidy’s promotion as a regular starter may have been too good when looking forward to next season. Projections for the former vary by about 1 win, primarily because we don’t know whether his 13.4% swinging strike rate is sustainable or not. If Luis can hang in the 12% range, the kid should stay around the 3 WAR level established early in his career.

Urquidy, on the other hand, has more to prove as he progresses from a decent 107-inning campaign. Pinpoint command and a quality arsenal of secondary pitches got him to this point, though corrections from a .237 BABIP loom overhead. This creates the biggest question of this group other than the health of Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers. Then again, Jose is their #5 starter and is arguably better than who occupies most teams’ final rotation slots. More innings plus regression from BABIP likely lead to a low-to-mid 4.00 FIP in 2022. That’s not too shabby, especially how it frees up Jake Odorizzi and/or Cristian Javier to provide veteran depth in a swingman role.

— Bullpen —

I have to say that Houston’s bullpen certainly had its ups and downs last season. For MLB bullpens in general, that’s not necessarily unusual. The Astros’ version featured a messy 27 blown saves, 32-31 record, and 4.21 FIP/4.19 xFIP. Granted, it eventually became apparent that standout closer Ryan Pressly (26 saves, 2.06 FIP/2.43 xFIP) – who has been damn good since joining Houston four years ago – was the bullpen’s anchor. In fact, Pressly contributed only 2 blown saves to the team’s final tally. Repeating a 2.4 WAR campaign as a reliever is easier said than done, however, the Astros closer should get plenty of opportunities to excel in high-leverage situations and deliver another sub-3.00 FIP season.

Whether this unit treads water or improves from last season depends greatly on the meat of its personnel. Losing Brooks Raley and Yimi Garcia to free agency puts them in a small hole – about 1 win’s worth. To compensate, Houston picked up hard-throwing righty Hector Neris to fill Raley’s setup role alongside Ryne Stanek. Both Stanek and Neris feature great change-of-pace splitters clocking in around 10 mph lighter than their fastballs. Philly phans are happy to see Hector leave after blowing so many saves but his newfound sinker has me suckered into thinking he can revive his career in the Lone Star State. A supporting cast of experienced pitchers like Blake Taylor and Rafael Montero add bulk that should help this group keep pace with some upside in 2022.

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Seattle Mariners 2022 Win Total: Open 82.5, Now 84.5

2021 Win Total: Over 72.5 (90-72 / Pythag = 76)

You can dig through all the numbers you want and still be lucky to explain how the Seattle Mariners had their winningest season since 2003. Last year’s 697-748 scoring deficit paints a much different picture via Pythag – one in which they won 14 games less. Either way, the M’s cleared their bargain basement season win total of 72.5 with ease. So after posting the biggest delta between actual wins and Pythag wins in 2021, is the franchise in position to finally post back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in the Jerry Dipoto-Scott Servais era?

Key Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Robbie Ray – LHP (SP)
• Adam Frazier – 2B
• Jesse Winker – OF
• Eugenio Suarez – 3B

Subtractions:

• Kyle Seager – 3B
• Yusei Kikuchi – LHP (SP)
• Justin Dunn – RHP (SP)
• Jake Fraley – OF
• Tyler Anderson – LHP (SP)

BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 81 – 84

— Position Players —

Pulling back the curtain on Seattle’s 90-win season reveals a lineup with plenty to unpack on both sides of the ledger. Mariners hitters fell way short with a 93 wRC+ (18th), .226 average (last), and .385 slugging (26th). Top prospect Jarred Kelenic slashed .181/.265/.350 in his big league debut as just about all of his teammates struggled to make an offensive impact. Exceptions comprise a short list: Ty France (129 wRC+), Mitch Haniger (120 wRC+), and Jake Fraley (109 wRC+). While Fraley is most likely to come back to the pack, projections for France and Haniger are holding fairly strong for 2022.

Sidelined for much of last season with knee ailments, 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis should be ready to resume his young career. General manager Jerry DiPoto and manager Scott Servais are banking on Lewis’ successful return as a mid-1 WAR everyday player – whether it be in the outfield or as designated hitter. But the jury is still out on whether the dynamic 26-year-old can crack 110 wRC+ again. Similarly, Kelenic’s progression as a major league hitter must accelerate to justify keeping him in the outfield which, in turn, helps protect Lewis from further wear-and-tear. Clearly, a chunk of upside lies with Kelenic after scuffling into a 28.1% strikeout rate and .216 BABIP while costing his club 18 runs in the field.

Kickstarting the Offense

On the flip side, Seattle finally got the Mitch Haniger they’ve been waiting for after enduring a couple seasons of rough injury luck. Even if 39 homers and 100 RBI are beyond reasonable expectation for 2022, fantasy baseball guru Paul Sporer still believes that the Mariners’ corner outfielder is a 30-90 lock. Mitch repeating near 3-WAR production alongside improved contributions from Lewis and Kelenic is exactly what the club needs to maintain position in the division. Regardless, the offense needs more pop if they want to provide consistent run support.

As good as it is to see Mitch crawl back into the fold, Seattle’s outfield received a massive upgrade with Jesse Winker. There’s a high likelihood that the former Cincinnati Red replays his stellar – if a bit injury-shortened – 2021 season by eclipsing 3 WAR again. Staying healthy is key as minor statistical regression will be mitigated by more playing time. Last season’s .394 OBP and 148 wRC+ are admittedly lofty but Winker’s patient, doubles-hitting approach at the plate offers 30-40% more production than what they traded away in Jake Fraley.

Locking Down the Infield

Saying goodbye to Kyle Seager means losing the team’s third-highest slugger and his ugly final slash line (.212/.285/.438). Newer Mariners Eugenio Suarez and Abraham Toro should take up the lion’s share of third base and designated hitter duties in Seager’s absence. Toro hitting north of .250 with a 110-ish wRC+ is an upgrade over Seager, while Suarez comes into town after hitting rock bottom last year in Cincy. Eugenio’s .198/.286/.428 and 31 homers are eerily similar to Seager’s final season numbers, and calls for Suarez to bounce back and offer 30% more offense would certainly be appreciated in Seattle.

Incoming second baseman Adam Frazier also appears to be the right guy for the job. Not only does he have the knack for getting on base, Frazier has been a plus-defender in four straight seasons. Assuming that last year’s 3.5 WAR effort was peak performance, I’m comfortable penciling him in around one win shy of that mark in 2022. Another benefit that Adam brings is filling the role of a well-qualified double play partner with JP Crawford. Both Crawford and Frazier plenty of similarities in their games and could easily combine as a 6-WAR duo.

The catcher spot will continue to be what it is with Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens behind the dish. Calling up Cal Raleigh probably won’t move the needle much this season but getting him more MLB reps has value. This revamped infield stands to gain 10 runs on their own, though the outfield defense is likely to remain as a bottom fourth unit. Seattle’s top prospect Julio Rodriguez could get some time in a corner outfield position, but again, nothing appreciable in 2022. The new blood infused into this lineup could be enough for the Mariners to take a big step over to the right side of league average.

— Rotation —

Kudos to the Mariners for signing 2021 AL Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray to anchor a perennially underperforming rotation. Especially after Yusei Kikuchi and last year’s 29 starts left for Toronto this offseason. Aside from flashes in 2018 and 2020, the starting pitching in Seattle is predictably below average. This season, that prediction goes hurtling out the window. Ray joins Marco Gonzales as tough southpaws atop Seattle’s starting five, with the right arms of Chris Flexen, Logan Gilbert, et al rounding things out.

Ray injects swagger into a pitching staff that has a good amount of upside to achieve. And there’s little to argue against the lefty ever having the stuff. Amazing what he achieved by getting his head straight and slashing his walk rate that ballooned in previous years. And all that was done over a substantial 193.1 innings, mind you. Some of the underlying numbers (.268 BABIP, 90.1% strand rate) don’t like his season quite as well as the award voters did though. (I’ll consider myself, Yanni, BetCrusher Bradley, and our wives fortunate to see him and the Blue Jays defeat the future World Series Champions in Dunedin last year.) So if Robbie Ray’s new mental approach to pitching is here to stay, Seattle pulled off a coup for years to come, starting with a 3+ WAR season in 2022.

Meet the Crew

Fellow southpaw Marco Gonzales aims to rebound from a disappointing age 29 season. It looks okay on the surface (10-6, 3.96 ERA), but not too far underneath sits a 5.28 FIP/5.16 xFIP campaign with a big spike in home runs. If Marco gets back to his usual non-homer magnet self, 2 WAR is not out of the question. And that’s about where to expect a guy who grabbed an opportunity last year and made good on it, Chris Flexen. Last year’s 3 WAR breakout was partially a result of being super stingy as both Flexen and Gonzales are sub-20% strikeout pitchers.

Outside of impressive farmhand right-hander Matt Brash, there’s not a whole lot of starting pitching cooking in Tacoma. That puts the Mariners in a bit of a pickle because they must stretch Logan Gilbert beyond his typical workload with the unproven 23-year-old rookie Brash behind him. His timeline of work the bullpen, move to the rotation was expedited after Justin Dunn was traded for offense. Brash has a very good fastball/slider/curveball repertoire but lacks any MLB experience. As for Gilbert, tacking on another 20-30 innings is doable. If those innings are of the low-4.00 FIP caliber he should match 2021’s production. The bottom of the rotation treading water means that the Mariners starters should tack on another 3+ wins for 2022 with their new ace.

— Bullpen —

How do we recalibrate this relief unit that posted a 45-27 record with 51 saves (32 blown) and an abundance of high-leverage situations? What if their three most productive relievers from last year remain with the squad? This motley crew of newer acquisitions – Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, and Casey Sadler – led them to the league’s third-best 3.72 FIP even after Kendall Graveman was dealt to Houston for Abraham Toro. The glaring problem with this trio is that they were a little too untouchable. Sewald (.254 BABIP, 80.8% LOB), Steckenrider (.257 BABIP, 86.4% LOB), and Sadler (.188 BABIP, 90.9%) all overshot their marks, and you know what that means. That’s a big, oversimplified reason why the Seattle bullpen is set up for a slide back down to league average. It’s deep and experienced, just not top five good.

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Oakland Athletics 2022 Win Total: Open 78.5, Now 71.5

2021 Result: Under 86.5 (86-76 / Pythag = 87)

My on-again, off-again relationship with the Oakland Athletics has more to do with Houston than anything in recent years. Our win total under ticket slid into the win column after sweating out an early season 13-game win streak that severely threatened it. But their second half swoon saw their playoff chances fizzle and ultimately lead to hiring new manager – and former Athletics player – Mark Kotsay to lead their transition. Kotsay will have his hands full after Billy Beane executed one of the biggest teardowns in recent years. And it may not be done yet.

But even though they were in the playoff conversation through the end of the season, the A’s showed some signs in 2021 that their competitive window is nearing an end, something that Melvin’s departure further cements. Case in point: After bringing in a number of veteran players at the trade deadline to shore up the roster, an already long list of free agents-to-be for Oakland got even longer.

Where Do the Athletics Go From Here? – Jake Mailhot / Fangraphs.com – November 2, 2021

Key Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Cristian Pache – OF
• Kevin Smith – 3B
• Shea Langeliers – C

Subtractions:

• Starling Marte – OF
• Mark Canha – OF
• Josh Harrison – INF
• Jed Lowrie – INF
• Chris Bassitt – RHP (SP)
• Andrew Chafin – LHP (RP)
• Sergio Romo – RHP (RP)
• Yusmeiro Petit – RHP (RP)
• Matt Olson – 1B
• Matt Chapman – 3B
• Jake Diekman – LHP (RP)

BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 65 – 74

— Position Players —

Two-thirds of the A’s outfield from a year ago now plays for the Mets. Of particular note, seven year Oakland veteran Mark Canha and his .344 career OBP are gone. And despite being an Athletic for only the second half of 2021, center fielder Starling Marte left a huge impression on this offense. Marte slashed .316/.359/.466 and stole 25 bases after being traded from Miami for starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo. That’s a combined 4.8 WAR gone from a team that lagged in power (.406 SLG) but was not afraid to run (88 SB). If anything, this Oakland lineup was quite unlucky last year. Their .278 BABIP was the MLB’s second lowest – an indicator typically pointing towards a rebound season.

This is far from a rebound season for the Athletics. Corner infielders Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are gone. Fortunately, concerns with the loss of Canha and Marte subside with Ramon Laureano back in the game. Well, he’ll be back after serving 27 more games on his PED suspension. Laureano may not be as dynamic at the plate as Marte, but his fresher legs allow him to patrol the expansive Coliseum quite well. Plus he demonstrated that 2020 was likely a small bump in the road, posting a .246/.317/.443 line with 21 doubles and 14 homers in 88 games before exiting the season. Atlanta’s trade package returned prospects and the speedy Cristian Pache, a 23-year-old with superb speed and fielding. But carrying forth a -6 wRC+ – granted, over a very limited 72 MLB plate appearances – will not keep him at this level for long.

Dispensing of Their Cornerstones

At least the Athletics accumulated plenty of prospects for their key divestitures of Matt Olson to Atlanta and Matt Chapman to Toronto. Regardless of Chapman’s bloated strikeout rate, his standing as one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors will be missed. His 3-4 WAR target is replaced in part by the inexperienced Kevin Smith, a 1.5 win full-season equivalent player. Chapman’s absence weighs heavily on the Oakland defense as a whole, so I’ll reduce last year’s fielding prowess further below neutral.

Matt Olson projected to be the A’s most valuable player once again, but the absence of his 39 home runs and good defense at first base will weigh heavily. His 5 WAR projection leaves behind a cobbled first base-designated hitter rotation. Seth Brown, Eric Thames, Billy McKinney, et al take the reins and leave behind several wins worth of value. Similar to how I view Chapman’s departure impacting the defensive side, Oakland’s offense stands to drop 7-8% in productivity this season. I’ll be the first to admit that assessing this lineup from a daily handicapping perspective will likely come with large uncertainty without their cornerstones on the roster. Plus we don’t know exactly how Mark Kotsay will use his depth to platoon and rotate players to make up for his team’s glaring weaknesses.

Plugging the Gaps

But the show must go on. Ramon Laureano’s consensus projection around 3 WAR aids an ailing outfield unit that will rely heavily on a pair of former part-time players. Stephen Piscotty and Chad Pinder will be called upon to fill Mark Canha’s void after registering a combined 421 plate appearances in 2021. A consensus guess is that Oakland’s corner outfield spots will be manned by some sort of rotation hinging on those two. Guys like the versatile Tony Kemp and prospect Cody Thomas will likely take reps out there as well, backing into a middling expectation for this group – both offensively and defensively.

Middle infielders Elvis Andrus and Tony Kemp are a mixed bag. Lack of power relegates the 33-year-old Andrus as an 80% bat in the lineup until the organization’s #5 prospect Nick Allen is ready for the majors. Fortunately, Kemp’s career best .279/.382/.418 slash line bodes well in a year where the A’s will lean heavily on flexible players to keep things afloat. His ability to field second base and corner outfield positions effectively is key in Oakland’s current scenario. Billy Beane’s gambit for the future makes sense in the big picture, but in 2022 there will be plenty of growing pains on the way to solidifying their lineup of the future.

— Rotation —

A year ago, Oakland’s starting five logged all but 80.2 of a league-high 894.0 innings last season. Their second-lowest walk rate had much to do with their eating so many innings, helping to earn a top ten valuation (13.9 WAR) and FIP (3.93) despite not being a strikeout-heavy group. And all five were set to return as one of the most cohesive units in the MLB. Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, and Frankie Montas formed a strong, sometimes overlooked trio of starting pitching. Until Bassitt was sent to the Mets, that is. And nobody would be surprised to see Manaea or Montas shipped out before Opening Day or the trade deadline given how the offseason has played out so far.

Breaking Up is Hard To Do

Until then, Montas and Manaea are the staples of this rotation. Sean Manaea appears to have fully recovered from late 2018 shoulder surgery after delivering 179.1 innings in 32 starts. A career high 9.74 K/9 innings and 12.3% swinging strike rate produced a stable 3.66 FIP/3.62 xFIP that bodes well for 2022. Will Manaea’s projected 3 WAR help the Athletics or another club though? How about Frankie and his career-best 4.1 WAR performance? Although Montas’ 3.37 FIP/3.64 xFIP speaks to a mid-3.00 encore, he’s earning his role as a bona fide innings eater. In fact, last year’s 187 innings were nearly twice as hefty as his previous high in 2019. But how much longer can we expect either starter to be with the club?

All Hands on Deck

Manager Mark Kotsay has his hands full pushing Cole Irvin and James Kaprielian in their second seasons as starters. Irvin’s pitch-to-contact approach delivered 6+ innings in 17 of his 32 starts, seemingly coming out of nowhere after pitching just 45.1 innings with Philadelphia. Borderline ground ball and hard hit rates make him a candidate for a bit of regression into the upper 4.00 FIP range, much like Kaprielian. He made significant strides but may miss the first couple weeks with an AC joint irritation. Is it took much to ask for Kaprielian to make up for the late start by refining his messy arsenal and being even better?

Paul Blackburn and the inexperienced Daulton Jeffries (17.0 MLB IP) get their chances as mid-4.00 FIP to earn 15-25 starts each. But there’s a ton of innings unaccounted for with these less-proven arms when compared to Bassitt. Call-ups like Zach Logue and Adam Oller or guys looking to restart their careers like Ryan Castellani are likely sources for these innings. This trial-and-error added to the likelihood that Manaea and/or Montas get shipped makes projecting the rotation a challenge. Even prior to trading Bassitt I expected this rotation to slide a bit – now we’re talking about a steep dropoff from the #1 & #2 slots downward that lead to a steeper decline.

— Bullpen–

Dependence on the rotation certainly spared the A’s bullpen a ton of grief last year. Without as much confidence in their diminished rotation, Oakland will lean even more heavily on their bullpen in 2022. Losing Andrew Chafin and Jake Diekman is tough, though sending Sergio Romo and Yumeiro Petit out of the Bay Area helps balance out the pain. Last year’s unit shared much of the rotation’s philosophy of limiting walks and hard contact, executing it to limited success. Now the problem seems to be how to manage a bullpen that must rely heavily on unproven prospects to handle the bulk of its workload.

Younger arms like AJ Puk and Daulton Jeffries are expected to pick up a ton of slack, which they have the talent to do. Though Jeffries’ prolonged diversion to the rotation dings the A’s relief unit. Puk joins closer Lou Trivino and setup man Deolis Garcia to form a decent core intermixed with plenty of questions. Unfortunately, these high-leverage arms posted two of the bullpen’s largest FIP/xFIP discrepancies in 2021. Trivino’s 3.78 FIP/4.48 xFIP and Garcia’s 3.96 FIP/4.80 xFIP resulted from low BABIPs and middling strikeout rates, creating a textbook expectation for regression. Oakland’s rotation must repeat with close to 900 innings again this year to spare the team from a weak bullpen that sets up to be one of the MLB’s thinnest. Yet at the time of publishing, only three relievers on the roster have more than one year of MLB experience.

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Los Angeles Angels 2022 Win Total: Open 83.5

2021 Result: Under 83.5 (77-85 / Pythag = 73)

For a team that has two of the most spectacular players in Major League Baseball, it is astounding just how middling this squad can be. Sure, Mike Trout having played the last game of his season on May 17th did anything but help. The Angels’ mediocrity phenomenon is nothing new to most baseball fans, though this year was special. The broader sports world became captivated by the true two-way play of 2021 AL MVP Shohei Ohtani – and he’s back for more. So why should we believe that 2022 rings in the Angels’ first winning season since dropping Anaheim from their geographically-complex name?

Key Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Noah Syndergaard – RHP (SP)
• Aaron Loup – LHP (RP)
• Michael Lorenzen – RHP (RP)
• Tyler Wade – INF
• Matt Duffy – INF
• Archie Bradley – RHP (RP)
• Ryan Tepera – RHP (RP)

Subtractions:

• Dylan Bundy – RHP (SP)
• Alex Cobb – RHP (SP)
• Steve Cishek – RHP (RP)

BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 82 – 91

— Position Players —

Designated hitters rarely receive one of the game’s highest accolades, the MVP award. But Shohei Ohtani is not just any DH. He cranked 46 home runs with a .257/.372/.592 slash line all while starting 23 games on the mound with a 3.52 FIP and 3.55 K/BB ratio. That two-way action produced a gaudy 8.1 WAR valuation – an MVP-worthy season by the numbers alone. And projections for 2022 aren’t that far off from last year! Manager Joe Maddon needs Ohtani to maintain his greatness as Mike Trout returns from a season lost to injury in order to drag the L.A. offense out of mediocrity. Numbers don’t lie. Their 94 wRC+, .407 slugging, and 723 runs scored were all mid-pack statistics that simply will not cut it in the AL West.

A healthy Mike Trout will go a long way towards getting the Angels offense humming. Sure, you have to be concerned with a 30-year-old center fielder losing his edge in the field. At the plate, however, Trout has tremendous discipline and can hit pretty much any pitch thrown at him. I see a general consensus for the 9x All-Star and 3x MVP to deliver right around .275/.415/.585. That’s a 160+ wRC+ to go along with Shohei’s 150+. That’s one hell of a lineup-topping duo!

It Takes More Than Two

What a luxury it must be to have a pair of .375+ OBP hitters leading off. That makes veteran third baseman Anthony Rendon and up-and-coming first baseman Jared Walsh the guys to benefit from Ohtani and Trout. Rendon proved to be an elite 6-7 WAR player in his final three seasons with the Nationals. Unfortunately, his 2021 season was disrupted by a hip injury. The 2019 All-Star’s 58 game season marked his first sub-100 wRC+ since 2015 and first negative defensive UZR since he was a rookie. If healthy, Anthony will get back on track and salvage the Angels’ bottom third defense at the hot corner.

L.A.’s strength at the infield corners got a boost when Jared Walsh took over at first. The 28-year-old is in the prime of his career, appearing to have established a healthy 120s wRC+ baseline. And that baseline is of the 30 home run, .500 slugging variety. Maddon needs everything he can get out of guys like Walsh and Rendon – after all, second baseman David Fletcher and a shortstop rotation featuring new acquisitions Matt Duffy and Tyler Wade aren’t going to overpower opposing pitchers. The upside is that these guys play solid defense and can be trouble on the base paths. Depth behind Max Stassi at catcher could be an issue, but otherwise, this infield could be much worse. Anthony Rendon’s return to third base and the upside of “replacing” Jose Iglesias’s miserable season at shortstop make this defense much, much better.

The Outfield Situation

Much like Rendon’s return is huge for the infield, Mike Trout is needed badly in an inexperienced outfield. Justin Upton has plenty of experience but things have been especially rough since crossing 30 years of age. Instead, the Angels turn to a pair of young bucks to accompany the living legend. Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell have less than 1,200 combined innings in their brief MLB careers and carry offensive projections in the 90-100 wRC+ range for 2022. Those are steps in the right direction at least. L.A.’s outfield a year ago was bottom five at the plate (86 wRC+, .383 SLG) and the league’s worst in the field (-28 DRS, -4.8 zone rating). The jury is still out on Marsh and Adell but the future bodes well for them. I won’t go too overboard here, but I have the Angels offense gaining a solid 5-6% of productivity this year.

— Rotation —

The Angels rotation poses a number of questions outside of Shohei Ohtani though. One of which rises from the state of transition this group is in. In fact, Ohtani is the only starting pitcher who logged more than 100 innings last year for L.A. That’s because the three with the largest workloads behind Shohei are no longer with the club – Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, and Andrew Heaney. Those veterans combined for 4.1 WAR in their 55 starts for the Angels, leaving a large innings gap for this year’s group to absorb. Granted, Bundy’s 2020 magic abandoned him to the tune of a 5.51 FIP/4.66 xFIP letdown in 2021. Likewise, Heaney struggled mightily with home runs before being dealt to the Yankees while contrarian Alex Cobb delivered career-best numbers (2.92 FIP/3.38 xFIP, 11.2% whiffs) before joining the Giants this offseason.

Good news came early this winter. L.A.’s workload conundrum received much needed relief with the signing of one of the hardest throwing starters out there, Noah Syndergaard. However, the injury history of the former Met raises one such question – the impetus for signing him to a 1-year deal.

A one-year deal this winter makes a lot of sense for Syndergaard, who can rebuild his value in hopes of getting a long-term contract next offseason. It’s less of a no-brainer for the Angels, as there is no opportunity to cash in on future years in case of a bounce-back, and it’s hard to imagine Syndergaard will be in top form in 2022, given the thick layer of rust that surely needs to be knocked off of him.

In One-Year Deal for Syndergaard, Angels Acquire Upside and Risk – Luke Hooper/FanGraphs.com – November 17, 2021

We don’t have a good read yet on Syndergaard’s trademark fastball velocity or the sharpness of his secondary pitches. Even so, I see him penciled in for 140-160 innings this season. At a modest 4.00 FIP, Noah is valued around 2.5-3.5 WAR and should easily eclipse the combined gap left behind by Bundy and Heaney. That’s a good start toward rebuilding the rotation.

Plenty of Work to Go Around

Plus L.A.’s crop of young starting pitchers gained some critical on the job training last season. Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, and Jaime Barria combined for 39 starts at 3.63, 4.28, and 4.83 FIP, respectively. Expect lefties Sandoval and Suarez to log mid-20s starts at low-to-mid-4.00 FIPs. Sandoval’s command must be sharper and Suarez needs to maintain his improved ground ball rate and changeup effectiveness to keep home runs in check. While Barria’s future may be cloudy after a lack of strikeouts (14.0%) and a 41.8% hard hit rate last year, 22-year-old Reid Detmers could be ready for a call-up at some point. The organization’s #1 prospect’s brief debut was shaky, though it highlighted an excellent curveball that we are likely to see plenty more of in 2022. Detmers is in line for double-digit starts and looks to be a mid-4.00 FIP pitcher as his development continues.

The final question with this unit deals with how Joe Maddon is going to utilize Michael Lorenzen. As a Reds fan, it was tough to see him get thumped in a limited injury-laden 2021. But Cincinnati’s use of him as a pinch hitter and pinch runner – notwithstanding the different rules and strategy that the NL played under – is appealing for obvious reasons. The 30-year-old has a deep arsenal and, depending on how you view his comeback potential, has strong upside with this pitching staff as a starter and/or reliever. We’ll have to see if Lorenzen can reverse course on his lost strikeouts and inflated 42.7% hard hit rate in 2021. Because L.A.’s rotation has several key questions yet to be answered, my conservative estimate is for them to continue forward as a league average unit.

— Bullpen —

Additional options in the rotation could lessen the team’s dependence on an Angels relief unit that worked the fourth most innings last season. Fortunately, the bullpen continues to be headed up by one of the best closers in the game, Raisel Iglesias. The former Cincinnati Red was brilliant in his L.A. debut, cranking out a slew of career numbers. And those bests came where it really matters: 37.7% strikeouts with a 20.6% swinging strike rate and 4.4% walk rate. Plus Iglesias’ fastball was as hard as ever and the changeup/slider secondary offerings were quite effective. While those extreme strikeout and walk rates are likely to regress a touch, I’m looking for another reliable season around 3.00 FIP from the 32-year-old reliever.

Maintaining Their Edge

There is a lot to like about this bullpen with Iglesias and two of league’s the better setup men. I’d like it even better if the rotation would eat a few more innings on their behalf. A Mike Mayers with a little less action than last year’s team-high 70 appearances means he’s still in reach of 1 WAR. What to do about departed free agent Steve Cishek and his 74 outings? Bring in Aaron Loup from the Mets to take on his high-leverage workload. It is smart not to expect another stellar 2.45 FIP/3.47 xFIP campaign from Loup in 2022, though the lefty shouldn’t have a problem picking up Cishek’s slack.

Then the rich got richer once Archie Bradley and Ryan Tepera were brought into the fold. Both veterans can be slated for 60+ innings with Tepera being the one most likely to stay below the 4.00 FIP mark. He ratcheted up his swinging strike rate significantly the past two seasons, yielding a 2.73 FIP/3.64 xFIP in 2021. Bradley, on the other hand, got back to the ground ball ways of his Arizona years though his whiffs have come down quite a bit since then.

On a below the radar note, Austin Warren made the most out of his first 20 MLB innings and could get pushed into a 50+ inning role this year. Something about that 53.4% ground ball rate coupled with 12.1% whiffs deserves pushing. The problem is that his 2.09 FIP debut came with a 3.74 xFIP tag. After all, the baseball gods won’t let you can’t get away with avoiding the long ball for long. The unproven portion of the Angels bullpen has shrunk as the offseason comes to a close, so I expect these guys to be one of the better groups in the league once again – with upside if the rotation absorbs more innings.

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Texas Rangers 2022 Win Total: Open 72.5, Now 74.5

2021 Result: Under 66.5 (60-102 / Pythag = 62)

Despite a 102-loss season parking Texas at the end of this preview, GM Chris Young made strong statements early this offeseason with a strategic shopping spree. The Rangers are playing the long game with big contracts to infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, in addition to a rotation boost from John Gray. Has their postseason window officially opened, or will they need another year before jumping the line and becoming the cream of the AL West crop?

Key Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Marcus Semien – INF
• Corey Seager – SS
• Jon Gray – RHP (SP)
• Martin Perez – LHP (SP)
• Mitch Garver – C
• Kole Calhoun – OF
• Brad Miller – INF/OF
• Garrett Richards – RHP (RP)

Subtractions:

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – INF
• Jordan Lyles – RHP (SP)

BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 73 – 75

— Position Players —

Manager Chris Woodward received management’s vote of confidence along with a new set of toys. Texas’ first shot across the league’s bow was hammering home a 7-year, $175M deal with AL MVP finalist Marcus Semien. Realistically, the Rangers’ window is greased for the next three-ish years in light of what Chris Young has wrangled so far. Semien’s gaudy numbers from 2021 are well documented: 265/.334/.538, 45 home runs, 115 runs, 102 RBI. But, to me, it’s wild how he did it with a BABIP 15 points below his career average. The dude did damage, pure and simple, though asking for mid-6 WAR production again without another MVP finalist in the same lineup is a stretch. Conservatively speaking, Marcus should gain the Rangers 3-4 wins over Nick Solak’s previous season at second base.

Don’t Sleep on the Defense

Semien joins a team that has dramatically turned its fielding around. After developing into a defensive stalwart at shortstop in Oakland, he showed flexibility as an 11 run-saving Gold Glover at second base with Toronto. And that was his first action at the position since 2014, mind you! Texas racked up a league-high 86 runs saved with stout fielding up the middle, just how you’d draw it up. Much of that credit goes to put him anywhere in the infield Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who killed it at shortstop. Many were skeptical of the former catcher in his new position(s) – and to that, IKF returned the favor by thumbing his nose right back at us.

Texas’s top-tier offseason acquisitions made IKF expendable, leading to his trade with Minnesota for catcher Mitch Garver. Garver is anything but a liability behind the plate and his +20% bat adds even more juice to this improving lineup. If we can put the 31-year-old backstop’s injuries from the last couple seasons aside, there’s a lot to like with this move. I still think Kiner-Falefa will be sorely missed if Rocco Baldelli has multiple infielders on the IL at the same time. These infield maneuvers shave a little bit from their baseline defense while the outfield takes a larger step back if Kole Calhoun and Nick Solak get the majority of corner outfield playing time. After all, Joey Gallo left some huge shoes to fill. Regardless, I certainly don’t hate the defense from catching duo Mitch Garver and Jose Trevino.

Firing Up Globe Life

This is the part where I had hyped up the potential for young slugger Josh Jung (2021: 140 wRC+ in AA, 166 in AAA) to make an impact on the Rangers this year. Especially after the 24-year-old crushed the minors with an impressive approach to developing into an MLB hitter. Unfortunately, the up-and-coming third baseman hurt his shoulder on February 24th and is expected to miss about six months. With IKF out of the picture, Andy Ibanez’ successful rookie season looks even more valuable. Ibanez successfully worked several infield positions in his half-season MLB debut while slashing a respectable .277/.321/.425. Now he has a platoon partner at third with the incoming versatile left-handed infielder Brad Miller.

If Corey Seager avoids significant injury, Texas’s infield will be swimming in an offensive surplus as he, Marcus Semien, and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe are 120+ wRC+ hitters. Arm strength may hinder Corey’s effectiveness in the field but his power resurgence certainly makes up for that. We’re talking about .500 slugging the last two seasons and a 50+% hard hit rate across that same period. The “simple” addition of Seager and Semien is almost sure to pull the Rangers’ bottom of the barrel slugging out of the basement and improve reliability within the lineup.

Much like their fielding, I’ll extend a similar concern to the outfield’s offense without an upgrade in left field. Sure, center fielder Adolis Garcia showed off lightning speed and sharp fielding skills but he failed to crack the .300 OBP plateau last season. And I can’t get too excited over 34-year-old Kole Calhoun who is essentially neutral in both phases if platooned properly. Perhaps this unit’s catalyst is 23-year-old center fielder Leody Taveras after all. Taveras’ .161/.207/.270 encore was disappointing to say the least, though his AAA stint before being called back up did him well. His progress is one to watch in your daily handicapping – you’d hate to see Willy’s elite speed and fielding get stuck in the minors because of his bat.

— Rotation —

Here’s where the conversation gets real – pitching. The Rangers’ staff has a lot of ground to make up before this team gets close to sniffing the postseason. Their rotations have been well below average for years, culminating in 2021’s third worst ERA (5.33) and FIP (5.19). I’d even argue that the Rangers’ starting pitching hit rock bottom last season with a collective 2.1 WAR and Kyle Gibson being shipped to Philadelphia at the end of July. Gibson was not great, though he and rookie Dane Dunning combined for 28% of the rotation’s innings with “surplus” value that the other starters eroded through the season.

Fortunately, the crew’s worst offenders – Jordan Lyles and Mike Foltynewicz – are no longer on the roster. Veteran arms are generally good, but a collective 297.0 innings of 5.53 and 6.14 FIP production, respectively, doesn’t cut it. And there is more good news. The club scooped up longtime Colorado starter Jon Gray to anchor the rotation and lead Texas’ inexperienced arms through 2025. Gray should benefit from a significant change in venue away from Coors Field, pointing to his last few seasons of low-to-mid 2.0 WAR as a reasonable baseline expectation. And last year’s 4.22 FIP/4.04 xFIP helps look past his bumpy 2020 as a short season aberration. Moving from one good defensive team to another keeps his ground ball-centric approach relevant, especially with that nasty whiff-generating slider.

Working Towards the Future

Jon Gray’s 4-year contract jives with management’s vision of securing quality veterans as a backbone to their emerging talent. Martin Perez’s homecoming helps from a veteran presence standpoint, though I doubt the Rangers expect much more than 20 starts and upper-4.00 FIP performance. Texas let their other subpar veteran starters walk with the objective of getting more reps for less experienced guys like Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, and Spencer Howard. Case in point, Dunning was pushed to 117.2 innings in his Rangers debut and should tack on another 20-30. His sinker was quite effective, generating 53.9% ground balls and a quality 3.94 FIP/3.87 xFIP that likely ticks upward into the low 4.00s. But add in that extra workload and Dunning should again push close to 2 WAR.

Where are we at with the tall left-hander Taylor Hearn? His promotion from bullpen to rotation probably comes with an expectation for 20+ starts, maybe sub-5.00 FIP. Hearn is far from a swing-and-miss guy, but his new sinker could mesh well with Texas’ defense. With Jon Gray and the cliched addition by subtraction, the Rangers rotation will be much better than last year – just don’t lose sight of their inexperienced arms working through growing pains. Spencer Howard, AJ Alexy, et al still have to cut their teeth before they become dependable 150+ inning starters.

— Bullpen —

The delayed returns of closer Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez from Tommy John surgeries weigh on a Texas relief unit lacking MLB experience and punch. Last year’s group was solidly mid-pack without them, though they made do with the save opportunities that came about. 31 converted saves compared to 18 blown saves is a positive ratio at least. And to their credit, the lack of save opportunities says more about just how poor of a lineup and rotation that the Rangers trotted out there.

At least 2021’s rough campaign provided a couple rays of hope for the future. Rookie Joe Barlow took the closer’s reins from 36-year-old Ian Kennedy after being shipped to Philadelphia with Kyle Gibson. And to say that Barlow took the job and ran with it would be an understatement. He saved 11 games in his final 17 outings of the season! Plus Barlow posted a 2.20 ERA that heavily disagrees with 4.82 FIP/5.93 xFIP, .130 BABIP, and so on. Scarce strikeouts (1.43 K/BB ratio) and a 33.3% ground ball rate should temper expectations for their assumed closer in ’22. It’s all about this bullpen’s lack of proven depth and high-leverage experience – the final innings could be adventurous this year. Strong support from John King, Spencer Patton, and Brett Martin is especially crucial, if not a pipe dream over 162 games.

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2022 AL West Projected Standings

1. Houston Astros (95-67)
2. Los Angeles Angels (88-74)
3. Seattle Mariners (82-80)
4. Texas Rangers (74-88)
5. Oakland Athletics (68-94)

Five Down and One to Go

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