The Braves’ punctuated the 2020 season with their third straight and 15th overall NL East title. Atlanta’s impressive young nucleus gives the impression of a club building their way towards a dynasty like that of the late 1990’s. On the flip side, the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals was this year’s version of the 2019 Boston Red Sox – plummeting from champs to the bottom of the barrel in a hurry. But throw all of that out the window before charting a course for the 2021 NL East. What should we make of the hyped-up Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets falling behind the Miami Marlins last year? The upside-down finish made the NL East a huge success in last season’s futures portfolio and we’re looking for more.
2020 Division Winner: Atlanta Braves
2020 NL East Standings
- Atlanta Braves (35-25)
- Miami Marlins (31-29)
- Philadelphia Phillies (28-32)
- New York Mets (26-34)
- Washington Nationals (26-34)
Atlanta Braves 2021 Win Total: Open 91.5, Now 91.5
2020 Result: Over 33.5 (35-25)
With three consecutive NL East titles under their belts, Atlanta has some serious work to do to catch up with the Braves’ dynasty of two decades ago. NL MVP Freddie Freeman headlined this offensive powerhouse alongside budding superstars Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Ozzie Albies. It’s wild to think that this lineup hardly missed a beat after Josh Donaldson’s free agency departure to Minnesota, Nick Markakis’ decline, and Ozzie Albies missing half of the season. And Freeman’s career-best .341 AVG/.462 OBP/.640 SLG was not only good enough to keep this dangerous lineup humming, it scored him the NL MVP.
Concerns about filling Donaldson’s big shoes were quickly dismissed by Marcell Ozuna’s ATL debut. In fact, Ozuna’s .338/.431/.636 and 179 wRC+ soared past Donaldson’s 2019 numbers. That made general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ move to snag him more prescient given last year’s unorthodox season. Atlanta’s lineup scored just one run less than the MLB-leading Dodgers and 23 more runs than the Padres. Sure, they had the league’s highest BABIP (.322) but gifted hitters like Freddie Freeman inherently inflate that number. The Braves sent a clear sign to the NL East – load up on pitching and don’t count on outslugging us.
Atlanta’s postseason push included two series sweeps before falling to the eventual World Series Champion Dodgers in seven games. And all this took place after staff ace Mike Soroka tore his Achilles in just his third start of the season. In his place, Max Fried put up a 7-0 record with an insane 0.32 HR/9 ratio and 3.10 FIP. Rookie Ian Anderson took the season by storm, helping to round out a Soroka-less rotation with an impressive 1.08 WHIP and 2.54 FIP in 32.1 innings. Unfortunately, shaky seasons from Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright kept Atlanta’s rotation in the bottom third of the majors. This unit was clearly their key weakness down the stretch – their Achilles heel, if you will – further underlining just how good the Braves offense was.
Best in Class Bullpen
Manager Brian Snitker had a big advantage when his starters handed things over to the bullpen. Despite registering just 13 saves – you can blame the offense for a lack of opportunities – the Braves bullpen was one of the league’s best. Snitker rode this unit hard last year, using them more than any team besides the Red Sox. They answered the call by turning in a collective top 10 FIP as well as walk and home run rates. If there was a specific weak spot for them last season, Luke Jackson was it. Jackson was the worst of the Atlanta relievers in AVG, BB/9, and FIP after two promising seasons. All is not lost, however, as a heavy dose of tough luck (.389 BABIP) may have hit him in 2020. Atlanta was far from perfect though their strengths were more than enough to cover up their deficiencies.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 91 – 95
Atlanta had a very quiet offseason in the wake of their dominant NL East-winning season. They approached free agency strategically, picking up 37-year-old Charlie Morton while Mike Soroka recovers from injury. But their biggest move of the offseason came in the form of re-upping with corner outfielder Marcell Ozuna after his career season. His four-year, $65M deal solidifies a top-tier lineup that approaches the 2021 season with a “World Series or bust” mindset. There’s a rising tide in the NL East and the Braves must take another step forward to outrace the sharks.
Rotation
Mike Soroka should be back at some point for Atlanta’s NL East title defense, creating a tough 1-2 punch for their rotation. Both have sub-4.00 FIP talent despite not being strikeout-heavy starting pitchers. The duo has a career ground ball rate over 50% that plays to the strength of the top notch middle infielders behind them. Apparently going 5+ innings per start while avoiding walks and home runs can get you somewhere in this league. Projections show these two combining for 5+ WAR even with Soroka missing a few starts. We’re not talking deGrom and Syndergaard here, though the Braves offense pairs exceptionally well with these reliable arms.
Alex Anthopoulos knows that he can get away with a less impactful rotation with Atlanta’s great bullpen and lineup. Even so, he focused on bolstering this group for the long haul with veterans Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly. While the jury may still be out on what Smyly will bring to the table this season, the Morton signing could be one of the better sneaky offseason moves in the division – at least when compared to the Mets’ high profile spending spree. But Charlie’s pitch velocities continue to tick down and hard hit rates have crept up since his Houston days. Still the veteran pencils out as a 3+ WAR pitcher that generates plenty of ground ball contact.
Is it too much to ask the bottom two slots of this rotation to operate smoothly though? Well, Smyly had a nice rebound last season with the Giants after struggling in his 2019 MLB return. Don’t expect another 2.01 FIP year from him, but something in the low-4.00s is perfectly fine. Plus it will keep Kyle Wright off of the mound once Soroka is back in the fold. Wright must improve on the ugly 1.23 K/BB and 1.84 HR/9 ratios if he’s going to stay on this roster – especially with 22-year-old Ian Anderson in the fold. The kid has a filthy fastball/changeup combo that should keep getting better throughout his major league progression. In the meantime, expect a solid 2 WAR sophomore season as Ian contributes to a solidly above-average rotation.
Bullpen
Atlanta runs its best in class bullpen back for another season. And their strength comes from depth, not one or two marquee standouts. Case in point, the Braves have two viable closers on the roster in Will Smith and Chris Martin. Despite Smith’s recent struggles, he has a long track record as a high-K/mid-3.00s FIP guy who simply got hit hard in 2020. His underlying metrics indicate rebound, though my biggest concern is his inflated hard hit and barrel rates since 2019. If this trend continues, Atlanta has an excellent backup plan with the 34-year-old Martin and his four-pitch arsenal. Plus the lanky righty is backed up by the bread and butter of this bullpen, AJ Minter and Tyler Matzek. This lefty duo has mid-3.00s FIP talent and enough experience under their belts to carry plenty of weight this season.
Even last season’s weak link, Luke Jackson is expected to get his mojo back after two hefty BABIP seasons. Assuming he pulls out of his low-Ks/high-BBs funk, Jackson can be a valuable middle relief cog alongside Grant Dayton and Jacob Webb. Webb has shown promise in limited MLB work while Dayton’s value is tied to his ability to pitch a couple innings every few days. Even though these two are realistically mid-4.00s FIP relievers, Jackson has the greatest upside. Even the unassuming swingman Josh Tomlin can fill a hole in the rotation and provide valuable long relief.
Position Players
The Braves faithful should be pumped to have last year’s prolific lineup back with a vengeance. If Alex Anthopoulos had a singular objective with this group this winter it was re-signing Marcell Ozuna. His massive deal maintains their robust veteran core along with Freddie Freeman and Travis d’Arnaud – a trio that put up 7.4 WAR in the shortened season! That equates to a mind-blowing and unsustainable 20 WAR full-season equivalent. Both Ozuna and Freeman have 125 wRC+/.280 floors that are about 40 points shy of 2020’s wRC+. And consider that d’Arnaud’s career-best .321/.386/.533 season was way out of character for the career .253 hitter. So if there’s any reason to tick the Braves offense down slightly, regression is it.
Atlanta has found the enviable sweet spot between a strong veteran core and an exciting crop of young talent. Better yet, the young talent has already proven their value. The dynamic duo of Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Ozzie Albies is not just the future of this franchise, they are integral to today’s success. Acuna’s stellar offense and Albies’ defensive prowess make for a great combination that could touch 10 WAR in 2021. So what about the bottom half of the Braves lineup? Better than most! Shortstop Dansby Swanson and third baseman Austin Riley are average-production hitters barring Riley finally breaking out. Unless he can consistently drive in the high-OBP guys ahead of him, Austin could be the odd man out with a better-fielding Johan Camargo waiting in the wings.
But when you put this all in perspective, I’m talking about whether Atlanta’s #7 hitter can get his stuff together. Not their leadoff man or cleanup hitter – their #7 hitter. That’s why this lineup can be as dangerous at the Dodgers and Yankees. It is deep, potent, and ready to give the NL East pitchers more anxiety in 2021.
Replicating the Right Combination In the Field
With the National League returning to its traditional sans-DH configuration, Ozuna heads back to left field and cements 24-year-old Austin Riley at the hot corner. Riley graded out as the worst defensive third baseman by DRS and second-worst by UZR last season and is the infield’s weak link. But Swanson, Albies, and Freeman pick up his slack on defense to buoy the infield. This is critical since the Braves’ key starters rely on ground ball contact to succeed.
Things are fairly solid in the outfield as well. Acuna’s speed and arm are great weapons in right field, and Ozuna is no slouch in the other corner. Center field, however, is still up in the air. All signs point towards 22-year-old Cristian Pache getting the nod with his excellent speed and fielding skills. He takes the reins from veteran Ender Inciarte who has fallen out of favor with Pache now on the scene. If Cristian can keep his average north of .240 in his rookie campaign, this outfield will be just as solid as the infield. While I don’t see Atlanta’s defense standing out like the Cardinals or Dodgers, they are anything but a liability to this World Series-caliber roster.
Miami Marlins 2021 Win Total: Open 70.5, Now 71.5
2020 Result: Over 24.5 (31-29)
Miami crushing their win total was one of my favorite futures portfolio results, second only to the Oakland A’s division ticket. But COVID drama struck them right out of the gates, sidelining them for over a week after their opening series. Yet the Marlins sprinted out to a 7-1 record and limped their way to the division’s second playoff berth. Unfortunately, this average-at-best Marlins club was swept by division foe Atlanta in the NLDS. Miami’s hitters produced a 95 wRC+, a clear step forward from their recent struggles at the plate. It was the first time the Marlins sniffed league-average production since Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and JT Realmuto filled the Miami lineup card in 2017. The 2020 version was devoid of those big names, yet guys like Jesus Aguilar, Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson formed a respectable offense.
When it comes to the bullpen, there was plenty of room for improvement. Brandon Kintzler was effective enough to save 12 games with a 2.22 ERA, though his underlying metrics (89.9% strand rate, .247 BABIP) paint the picture of an aging veteran that dodged a lot of bullets. He led a group of relievers that struggled to strike out batters while giving up the MLB’s third-most home runs. Somehow, these deficiencies had minimal impact on the Marlins actually winning games. Timing can be everything.
The Future Lies in the Rotation
Miami’s stable of young starters took a collective step forward in 2020. The rotation finished mid-pack again while notching valuable starts along the way. Although staff ace Sandy Alcantara missed five weeks due to COVID, he brushed off a rough return to action and put together a strong finish to the season. Alcantara delivered higher velocity throughout his pitch arsenal, signaling an encouraging trend. Pablo Lopez stepped up in the meantime and finished as the most productive Marlins starter last year by squashing hard contact and beefing up his strikeout rate.
And it kept getting better for this group. Former Phillies prospect Sixto Sanchez made his MLB debut in late August. The acclaimed 22-year-old righty jumped from AA Jacksonville in 2019 to the Marlins roster and hit the ground running. In fitting fashion, Philly’s bargaining chip in the JT Realmuto trade had his breakout 3-hit, 1-run gem against Philadelphia. That left some Phanatics wondering if the blockbuster trade was worth it. Now incoming Marlins general manager Kim Ng holds the keys to Sanchez, Alcantara, Lopez & Co. gracing the South Florida mound for years to come.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 69 – 74
How does a .517 team get projected for only 71 wins without many big offseason losses? The short season skewed quite a bit, including Miami having the MLB’s largest actual-to-pythag win discrepancy in the majors. The Marlins’ 31 wins exceeded their 26 pythagorean wins due to a -41 run differential, warranting a stiff baseline adjustment for 2021. Unfortunately, the rising tide of the NL East threatens the Marlins the most. Will they have enough firepower to keep their heads above water again?
Rotation
Is Miami’s rotation poised for a big bump in 2021 now that the Sixto Sanchez era has begun? Well it’s my job to throw the wet blanket over things and say “not quite yet”. Sanchez showed enough in seven starts last season to earn a 2+ WAR projection with a high-3.00s FIP. The guy throws 97 mph and has a nasty changeup, but the big question is whether he can deliver 130 innings over a full season. And that same concern extends to Elieser Hernandez who will be pushed further than he has ever been. Hernandez must pitch deeper into games – and in order to do that, he needs a viable third pitch to survive the second pass through opponents’ lineups.
The Marlins need to get deep outings from their headlining duo of Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez. The 4 WAR duo enters their fourth year with the club and are rare constants after the pitching staff overhaul. But Alcantara’s future as the staff ace may be numbered if he can’t regain his command this spring. Lopez, on the other hand, took a big step forward in his 3.09 FIP 2020 season – due in part to adding a pretty effective cutter to his arsenal. Time will tell whether Pablo’s recent drop in hard hit contact is a product of the shortened season or a more lasting effective of his maturation.
It is inevitable that a handful of pitching prospects will get their shots as the season goes on. The Marlins are in the process of assembling their rotation of the future and several question marks still remain. Elieser Hernandez is not a lock to remain a starter this year and this up-and-coming crop of pitchers are untested. A prime example is Trevor Rogers who is projected to join the Opening Day rotation after a promising spring. But he has just 28.0 MLB innings under his belt! Even greener are AAA pitchers Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera, both of whom should get called up this summer. Their combined MLB experience? Just 7.2 innings. Don’t expect too much out of this Miami rotation but keep your eyes open for betting opportunities with Lopez and Sanchez on the mound.
Bullpen
After a brutal 2020 season, the Marlins blew up their bullpen and started with a blank slate. The need for change was crystal clear after their relief unit posted an ugly 5.65 FIP and 1.55 WHIP. To start, Brad Boxberger, Brandon Kintzler, Ryne Stanek, Nick Vincent, and Drew Steckenrider were let go in free agency. Then Kim Ng went into full NHL shift change fashion. She scored free agents Anthony Bass from Toronto and Ross Detwiler from the White Sox. And the trade markets netted Dylan Floro from the Dodgers and Tampa Bay’s John Curtiss. All of this reshuffling left just one reliever who was with the club to start the 2020 season – Yimi Garcia. As good as Garcia’s 1.66 FIP and 92.9% strand rate were last year, 15 innings paint just part of the picture.
Enter 33-year-old journeyman Anthony Bass to anchor this new-look bullpen. The sinker/slider righty is a pitch-to-contact ground ball pitcher who is expected to be Don Mattingly’s closer. Don’t expect Bass to be lights out though, considering his career 4.12 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. But his $2.5M/year salary is a steal considering the amount of high-leverage experience he brings. And that’s what some of the higher upside relievers like Dylan Floro and Richard Bleier lack, even if they are projected for sub-4.00 FIP seasons. So the Marlins basically have a collection of high-3.00 to mid-4.00 FIP relievers with little experience closing out games. Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, Jr. sure has a tough task of orchestrating the new personnel, but at least most of these guys are known quantities. And because of that, the Marlins bullpen sets up as more reliable and effective than last year’s.
Position Players
Aside from their bullpen overhaul, Miami had a quiet offseason with one exception – signing free agent outfielder Adam Duvall. The 32-year-old earned an everyday player role in Atlanta after slashing .267/.315/.567 in 2019 part time duty. Despite dropping 30 points of average last season, Duvall flashed back to his big-hitting seasons in Cincinnati with 16 homers in 57 games. And power is something that this Marlins team desperately needs, especially in their spacious ballpark. He joins veteran outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson as league-average run producers who can play decent defense. The biggest issue I have with Marte playing center field though is that we’ve seen his defensive prowess tail off significantly since 2019. He posted back-to-back mildly negative DRS and UZR ratings in center and likely will again.
Fittingly, that’s essentially my assessment of the entire Miami lineup – not great, and not terrible either. It is full of “tradeoff guys” like Jesus Aguilar and Miguel Rojas. First baseman Aguilar makes up for subpar fielding with a better bat, while Rojas provides good defense at shortstop without much power at the plate. Both of these players were productive in 2020 well beyond this year’s expectations. That’s why bench players Garrett Cooper and Jon Berti can be valuable in case things go south. Plus the catcher spot holds its own tradeoff dichotomy. Jorge Alfaro has a leg up on Chad Wallach at the plate, though Wallach’s defense is better. So either way you cut it, the Marlins return a passable defense and batting just below league average.
Brian Anderson: The Real Deal
Brian Anderson is not a tradeoff type of player. Anderson has progressively improved his power hitting without much detriment to his average. And barring another 25%+ strikeout season, he is set for a .260 year with 20 homers. That’s good enough for a 110+ wRC+ campaign that could very well dictate whether Miami’s offense treads water from last year or sinks further behind. Plus Brian’s defense at the hot corner continues to improve after assuming that full time role. In a pinch, Anderson can be moved to right field where he was successful in previous seasons. Marlins fans, this guy is your team’s catalyst so enjoy the show.
Philadelphia Phillies 2021 Win Total: Open 80.5, Now 80.5
2020 Win Total: Under 31.5 (28-32)
Philadelphia remained in baseball purgatory after a ninth straight season without a winning record. They’ve been very close over this stretch – very, very close. Sam Miller summed up the state of the franchise as old, expensive, depleted, and out of contention. In essence, the five-year rebuild that shipped off most of their valuable prospects and brought in mega-stars Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto landed them in a logjam of mediocrity. And to make matters worse, the club’s alleged pandemic-related financial woes are hampering their near-term spending plans.
New manager Joe Girardi and pitching coach Bryan Price weren’t enough to push this team over the hump. I still believe that this duo are a positive force to right the ship. Apparently it wasn’t quite enough right away – or perhaps there simply wasn’t enough time for these two to leave their imprint on the team. At least run production was not the issue. Philly’s lineup scored plenty of runs with guys like Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins slugging .542 and .503, respectively. Plus Didi Gregorius’ one-year stint provided a sharp glove and a respectable .284/.339/.488 slash line with 10 home runs. Even 2018’s third overall draft pick Alec Bohm slapped some icing on the cake after a quick call-up to the bigs, slashing .338/.400/.481 and driving in 23 runs in 180 plate appearances.
Like their offense, the Phillies’ rotation played well enough for the team to succeed. Their starting pitchers combined for a strong 3.75 FIP and 1.10 HR/9 rate, helping Girardi and Price avoid the bullpen as much as possible. They generated the league’s second-best soft contact rate (19.8%) and generally put the club in favorable positions to succeed. It started at the top as staff ace Aaron Nola maintained a solid ground ball rate (49.7%) while posting a career-high 12.11 K/9. He Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez in a trio that exceeded 10 K/9 on the season!
Veteran Jake Arrieta was the outlier who struggled to keep opponents off of the bases, though Zack Wheeler was spectacular in his own way. Wheeler flew under the radar without his fellow teammates’ eye-popping strikeout numbers, leading the rotation in walks (2.03 BB/9), home runs (0.38 HR/9), and deep starts (6.45 innings/start). Plus Girardi got the organization’s top prospect Spencer Howard into the mix. The 23-year old showed promise along with his rough edges, getting popped for 6 homers in 24.1 innings before shoulder issues shut him down.
So Where Did Things Go Wrong?
The defense collectively underperformed with just one regular player actually saving runs – Jean Segura. Left fielder Andrew McCutcheon was the biggest liability in the field, which is disappointing considering that Cutch started to regain his defensive prowess before tearing his ACL in 2019. Yet fielding issues were just a drop in the bucket for Philly. The team suffered immensely from a bullpen that fell right off of the proverbial cliff. Part of that could be attributed to a highly-unfortunate .376 BABIP that can make an average pen look rough. Even still, the bullpen’s MLB-worst 7.06 ERA reduces to an abysmal 5.56 FIP. They also posted an MLB-worst 1.79 WHIP in the process of losing more games (14) than saves (11).
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 81 – 85
Offseason changes started at the top when GM Matt Klentak stepped aside after the 28-win shortened season. Several years of mediocrity prompted Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to call this season a “retool, not a rebuild“. The bad thing is that Philly’s talent pipeline has all but run dry. So unless the Phillies planned on throwing in the towel for this season, priority #1 was unequivocally re-singing JT Realmuto. And that they did with a five-year, $115.5M deal. But the question still remains whether this high-payroll team has enough in the tank to shake things up in the East.
Position Players
Philadelphia’s big offseason (re)signing of JT Realmuto kept a 4+ WAR catcher on the roster who is not just an excellent defender but a career .278/.328/.455 hitter. He’s surrounded by the firepower of Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, and Rhys Hoskins – making the Phils a very dangerous offense to face. Then the Phils re-signed shortstop Didi Gregorius as part of their maintaining the status quo. Which, admittedly, is much better than nosediving into last place in the NL East.
At this stage in his career, the 31-year-old Gregorius is a .265 hitter with with very good fielding skills. Plus Didi pairs well with fellow veteran Jean Segura to form a good defensive middle infield duo that can contribute with their bats. Without them, it’s hard to tell just how terrible Philly’s defense would be. For every ounce of expected improvement out of corner outfielders Andrew McCutcheon and Bryce Harper after tough defensive seasons, guys like Alec Bohm and Scott Kingery could counter those gains with shaky fielding. Point blank – this could be one of the worst three defenses in the majors. Again.
Perhaps I’m being unfair by calling Kingery a shaky center fielder. It hasn’t helped that Philly has bounced him all over the field, and his rough 2020 season with COVID calls for a rebound season. But the latest indication out of camp is that Odubel Herrera could platoon with Kingery in center. Unfortunately, neither of the two are projected to be positive contributors at the plate this year. Aside from the center field dilemma, however, Joe Girardi has a pretty firm lineup without many questions. So I expect more of the same from Philadelphia’s position players – very good bats that compensate for lackluster defense.
Rotation
Philadelphia absolutely needs a repeat performance from their top three starters to vie for the NL East title. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin were fantastic last year with their low-3.00s FIP efforts. Even though projections put Wheeler and Eflin more around the 4.00 mark this season, there are no glaring signs of Nola letting up. He had a shaky start to the spring but was tweaking his changeup and developing a cutter in the process. And that could be a scary addition to Aaron’s effective fastball/changeup/curve arsenal. This is a 9-10 WAR top end of the Phillies rotation even with modest projections for Wheeler and Eflin.
The key constraint for this rotation is their bottom “half”, which now includes journeyman lefty Matt Moore. Moore spent the 2020 season in Japan and serves as a stopgap while their young talent develops in AAA. He’s a 5.00 FIP pitcher at best and could get swapped out with swingman Chase Anderson if he shows signs of turning his career around in the bullpen. But it’s the omnipresent Vince Velasquez who ironically holds a big key for this unit – if he can stay healthy. This good rotation flies under the radar and has considerable upside if their bottom slots can each produce close to 2 WAR. That’s a big if though. Guys like Moore and Velasquez are likely to cycle in and out as starters, leaving quite a few questions down the stretch.
The Next Wave
Spencer Howard is a guy who is slated to work his way into the rotation at some point again. He may be Philadelphia’s most anticipated prospect, but don’t expect too much very soon. You know he’s itching to get back and improve on his 5.86 FIP/1.64 WHIP rookie debut though. Howard nosedived quickly in his six starts and carries a stigma of being an injury-prone pitcher. So the word out of Phillies camp is that Howard will be on an innings limitation around 100 once he’s called up this summer. Even still, the 24-year-old can be a net positive for the 2021 rotation with a FIP below 5.00.
Bullpen
It can only get better from here, right? Dombrowski focused on one of the worst bullpen performances in history and brought in new faces. It’s tough to accurately gauge “which” Hector Neris the Phils will get in 2021, though all indications point to him getting the closer job again. I see his 2021 season more of the low-4.00s FIP caliber that could diminish his role as the Phillies’ sole closer. If Neris falters too often early, newcomer Archie Bradley is positioned to absorb his duties. Whether Bradley works alongside Neris as a setup man or shares the closer duties, he gives this team a lot more flexibility in late-inning relief.
New acquisitions Jose Alvarado and Sam Coonrod should add much-needed velocity to the bullpen. After getting fleeced in last year’s trade with Boston for relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree – both of whom played major parts in 2020’s late-innings colossal failures – management focused on tightening up middle relief. Coonrod still needs polishing at the big league level, but Alvarado can put in high-leverage work if he gets his walks issue under control. As for veterans Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson, they provide stability and depth that should prove crucial in a 162-game season. Look for a big improvement out of this Philly bullpen, getting them closer to being an average unit.
New York Mets 2021 Win Total: Open 90.5, Now 90.5
2020 Result: Under 31.5 (26-34)
There’s one thing you can say with certainty about the Mets: they have one of the best 1-2 punches going. When healthy, of course. 2020 was going to be even better with Marcus Stroman joining Jacob deGrom and Thor Syndergaard in the rotation. Instead, Stroman and Syndergaard suffered season-ending injuries before Opening Day. Although deGrom was pretty damn good on his own, it wasn’t good enough to compensate for those big losses.
New York’s offense actually fared well despite Pete Alonso dropping nearly 30 points of average and 90 points of slugging. A potent lineup can help overcome Citi Field’s power-sucking dimensions, but losing two ace-caliber starters eroded their home-field edge. Still, the weakest links for the Mets continued to be the defense and relievers. The bullpen – specifically Edwin Diaz – bore the brunt of negative attention after 2019’s collection of dramatic meltdowns. I was more bullish on Edwin & Co. bouncing back as one of the better relief units in the division. That bar turned out to be quite low, so at least they weren’t the worst bullpen in the NL East.
The Mets’ Biggest Concern
Although I overestimated the Mets bullpen’s rebound, our 2020 division preview tagged the club’s defense as a significant liability. This was a big part of my rationale behind playing their win total under. And technically the Mets’ -22 defensive runs saved was a mathematical improvement as compared to 2019’s -86 DRS debacle. Other indicators also point to the notation that last year’s club improved defensively. But this unit was still bad enough to remain in the bottom five. Even the omniscient New York sports media eventually realized that there comes a point when a team needs to prioritize defense over offense. That point should have been prior to 2018, but it’s better late than never.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 90 – 95
The Mets’ biggest offseason move was Stephen Cohen’s $2.4 billion purchase of the franchise. This vaulted Cohen from minority owner to the owner of the Metropolitans. And it did not take long for the hedge fund mogul to make a splash in the MLB. In his first offseason as the owner, Cohen scored coveted shortstop Francisco Lindor and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco in a six-player trade with Cleveland. Other strategic moves brought in impactful players James McCann at catcher and Trevor May in the bullpen. Finally this franchise had an owner willing to address the team’s weak spots, and management almost filled them all.
Position Players
When San Diego made noise picking up Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, New York responded with its own banger. One of those key additions, Francisco Lindor, helps address the Mets’ weak spot in the field. In fact, I estimate an 8-10 run positive swing in runs saved simply by upgrading Rosario and Gimenez at this crucial position, who were sent to Cleveland in the blockbuster trade.
If you plug Ahmed or Simmons (and probably DeJong, too) into your lineup, you’re sacrificing offense for defense. Not so with Lindor. His worst season at the plate was 2020, but even then, he managed a .258/.335/.415 line, good for a 100 wRC+. For his career, he’s a .285/.346/.488 hitter, a line buoyed by his phenomenal contact skills. Despite an aggressive approach at the plate, he strikes out only 14.1% of the time while walking at an average rate, which gives him a high floor.
Mets Acquire Lindor, Carrasco in Blockbuster Trade – Ben Clemens, FanGraphs.com – January 8, 2020
Francisco earned himself the prestige as a highly-valued player with his combination of excellent defense and consistency as a lineup-churning hitter. He joins another AL Central defector in catcher James McCann, who pairs up with Tomas Nido as a very good tandem behind the plate. McCann also vastly improves New York’s defense and gains an excellent rotation in return. The jury may be out on whether his recent success at the plate is legit, but James’ biggest contribution to the Mets is his glove – especially if he can sustain last year’s improvement in framing.
One looming deficiency that the Mets carry over for yet another season is a true center fielder. Neither Brandon Nimmo nor Michael Conforto have never been very good in this position. And signing Albert Almora, Jr. to play the position in any type of meaningful capacity seems to be more wishful thinking than anything. Heck, even offseason acquisition Kevin Pillar’s defense in center field dropped off significantly after the 2017 season. Plus it’s very difficult to tell whether Royals centerfielder prospect Khalil Lee gets any playing time after missing a crucial developmental season in AAA last year. So it looks like business as usual for this offensively talented and defensively deficient outfield.
What About the Old Guard?
Jeff McNeil stands to benefit the most from Robinson Cano’s season-long suspension. He will be their regular second baseman and can put time in left field where he is a slightly better defender. Either way, the Mets are banking on McNeil to crank out another .290/.370/.460 season in the bottom half of the order. That’s a scary thought with good hitters like Conforto and Lindor hitting ahead of him. But don’t forget about Pete Alonso after he quietly followed up his 53-homer rookie breakout with 16 last year. How does 130 wRC+ with 40 homers this season sound?
The lack of a universal designated hitter really hurt the Mets this season. Guys like JD Davis and Dominic Smith earned regular spots in last year’s lineup to gain the benefit of their bats without taking on the defensive liability. They are 110-ish wRC+ hitters who need to keep their batting averages above .250 if this offense is going to fire on all cylinders. Anything less than that and their poor defense will outweigh their offense.
Rotation
The dark cloud looming over New York’s rotation right now is how long Carlos Carrasco’s hamstring injury will sideline him. We know how the tough the guy is though. Cookie’s resilience from battling leukemia in 2019 manifested in a huge 1.5 WAR rebound season. An effort that only Shane Bieber’s dominant Cy Young campaign could overshadow. The Carrasco acquisition makes an immediate impact this season by filling the big hole left by Noah Syndergaard, whose recovery from Tommy John surgery will keep him off the field for most of 2021. Ironically, Carrasco’s hamstring injury emphasized the importance of their recent signing of Taijuan Walker. But Taijuan’s rebound after Tommy John surgery in 2018 resulted in lower pitch velocities and swinging strike rates, so my expectations are muted.
Everyone knows what Jacob deGrom brings to the table – and that’s one of the biggest hammers in the league. Depending on just how dominant he is, the Mets’ ace should deliver 6-9 WAR with a sub-3.00 FIP. And this range is a safe assumption considering how he has been popping 100+ mph in spring training. Plus Marcus Stroman is back and healthy, giving the team a tested veteran to fill a #2 or #3 slot with Carrasco and/or Syndergaard sidelined. That’s testament to the Mets’ great starting pitching depth, though it will be tested early this season. That’s where David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi come into play. Peterson’s rookie campaign points to a mid-4.00s FIP, much in the way that the former San Diego starting pitcher’s reclamation season does. I still expect this deep group to persevere and contribute heavily to the Mets’ success.
Bullpen
So many people have wanted to run closer Edwin Diaz out of town shortly after he got to Queens. The guy blew 7 saves in 33 opportunities in his 2019 debut with the club, then converted just 6 of 9 chances last year. Clearly, Diaz has terrible timing for his sketchy outings because he still managed a stellar 2.18 FIP in 2020. But that’s the essence of being a dependable high-leverage reliever – converting when it matters. Which is why New York’s Trevor May signing is so substantial. The former Minnesota Twin notched 25 holds and a 6-3 record over the last two seasons in relief. His three-pitch repertoire has earned him a steady mid-3.00s FIP that the Mets desperately need.
May is one example of the club aggressively rebuilding their maligned bullpen over the last few offseasons. But there hasn’t been much to show for it – at least in terms of run prevention. In fact, the bullpen’s FIP has crept up from 4.61 in 2018 to 4.74 last season. Fortunately, 4.00 FIP relievers Miguel Castro, Dellin Betances, and Jeurys Familia helped deter this creep from becoming a total disaster.
Now the bottom half of New York’s relief unit gets upgraded with lefty sidearmer Aaron Loup and righty Jacob Barnes. These inexpensive veterans slot in for the departed Justin Wilson and help avoid calling up unproven minor leaguers. At least for now, this bullpen looks much improved with a proven high-leverage arm in Trevor May and a long list of 4.00 FIP relievers behind him and Edwin Diaz. Expect this group to flip from being a below-average unit to above average.
WAGER: NL East Champs +250 (bet 1/10/21 – now STALE)
This number is stale as hell. And there’s nothing worse than some guy posting stale futures numbers, but here’s the deal – I post our MLB positions on our MLB page as soon as I book them. So not acknowledging all of these positions in the preview would be disingenuous. Regardless, the main question is whether this team can vault from fourth to the top of the NL East in just one season. Especially when the division is poised to be one of the most competitive from top to bottom. And realistically, it’s still Atlanta’s to lose.
With the NL East shaping up as a neck-and-neck race with the Braves, less than 2/1 to win the division just doesn’t work. Plus, I give the Nationals plenty of respect to cannibalize a few more wins from within. So throw out the divisional future position that is now priced around +140. The win total over could be a suitable alternative if you’re satisfied with laying -112-ish juice to exceed 91 wins. Otherwise, just pass and move on.
Washington Nationals 2021 Win Total: Open 84.5, Now 84.5
2020 Result: Under 33 (26-34)
The quickest way to sum up the Washington Nationals’ 2019 World Series Championship defense is “oof”. Their fall from the pinnacle of the sport down to a disappointing 26-win team was predicted by some sharps, although my outlook was for a slightly above-average season. Well the sharps were spot on. And it did not take long to realize that Washington wasn’t quite right. They stumbled out of the gates with a 4-5 record, akin to their slow start in 2019. This time, however, the Nats did not have the luxury of 162 games in which to mount a comeback.
Washington’s lineup sorely missed the services of Anthony Rendon, especially with heir-apparent to third base Carter Kieboom failing to make his mark. The offense was solid with stars Trea Turner and Juan Soto picking up a ton of slack at the plate. Unfortunately, the Nats defense was horrific. They ranked 30th in both defensive runs scored and defensive runs above average. So no matter how you measure it, Washington’s fielding was a massive liability. Without Rendon and Bryce Harper patrolling the corners, these guys made the Mets look like Gold Glovers.
Struggling to Put Them Away
The promise of a strong rotation never materialized, as reigning World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg made just two starts due to injury. 36-year old Max Scherzer was pretty damn good, but Patrick Corbin struggled to repeat his impressive Nationals debut. Then things really fell off the cliff when starters Anibal Sanchez, Austin Voth, and Erick Fedde started half of the team’s games. Things were very ugly when they took the mound. Let’s just say that Sanchez’s 5.46 FIP was clearly the best of that bunch.
The silver lining? Those three starters’ 142.2 innings helped take some pressure off of a subpar bullpen. And I think you can honestly say that Washington’s relief unit took a step in the right direction. Although most of their relievers had negatives to go along with their positives, Wander Suero offered promise for the future with his improved strikeout rate and home run suppression. But in the end, the Nats needed much more than this roster could give them.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 87 – 92
If there is sleeping tiger in the NL East waking up to attack the division, Washington is it. Everything seemed to go against the Nationals last season. So the front office reloaded at some key spots while banking on their rotation returning to form. Wishful thinking? Perhaps, although the expectation for Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg to rebound is not a bad bet. From a qualitative perspective, this is a veteran-laden team that wants nothing more but to put it all together and get back to the World Series for one more shot at glory. But they have to make it out of the East first and the will to win may not be enough on its own.
Position Players
When you think about the 2021 Washington Nationals, reigning NL batting champion Juan Soto surely comes to mind. Ironically, last year’s version of the Washington outfield was an abomination. Soto carried the offense with 13 homers and a .351/.490/.695 slash line but his defense was disappointing. The Nats’ phenom is still projected as a subpar defender, but hitting .300 with 40 homers would more than make up for it. Plus I expect center fielder Victor Robles to turn his fielding and hitting around after a rough season. This club can get by with Robles’ wRC+ around 90 as long as his defense is spectacular.
To be honest, the entire outfield stunk on defense last year. So general manager Mike Rizzo turned to Kyle Schwarber to spice things up. The inconsistent slugger left the Cubs to join a Nats outfield in desperate need of another power bat. Unfortunately, Washington’s defense needs more help than what Schwarber gives. He has a good arm though, and Kyle’s return to respectability at the plate would be an improvement over what Adam Eaton did for them in recent seasons.
Clearing the Table
Manager Dave Martinez recently acknowledged that he’ll be tinkering with the top of his lineup this spring. That’s where Robles, Soto, and Trea Turner all have their roles in kickstarting the Nats offense. What Robles lacks in plate discipline, he makes up for in speed on the base paths. Plus Soto and Turner are .300 hitters with enough power to create runs on their own. So new acquisitions Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber should have plenty of RBI opportunities to capitalize on. That’s the catch, though. These two must be consistent and snap out of the funk they were in last season to take full advantage.
On that note, 23-year-old third baseman Carter Kieboom is in the “put up or shut up” stage of his young career. After all, he slashed just .181/.309/.232 in his first 165 MLB plate appearances. Not that a big league team wants to get 90 wRC+ out of a corner infielder, but even that would be a giant lift for the Nats. And word out of spring training is that Kieboom’s offseason LASIK surgery is working. Regardless, defense will continue to plague this team though a tick up from Washington’s offense should help even things out.
Rotation
Let’s be real about the Nationals for a minute. This team only goes as far as its big three starting pitchers go. Clearly this is an understatement when we’re talking about a BIG three like Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg. But it’s also about who is left carrying the load if any of them go down or lose their edge. Questions surround the capability of Washington’s #4 and #5 starters, beginning with the 37-year-old former Cub John Lester. Fresh off of career-worsts in home run and strikeout rates, Lester is likely to get hit hard again in 2021 as his pitch velocities continue to slide. And Joe Ross returns from last season’s hiatus to fill the final slot in the rotation. They’re not headliners, but this veteran duo is worth about 1 WAR each.
Washington’s Big Three
Now back to Washington’s big three, who are each on the final year of their contracts. The Nationals’ ace Max Scherzer saw his FIP go over the 3.00 mark last season for the first time in four years. After all, Scherzer is 36 years old and a slow decline is inevitable. This is evidenced by increased hard hit rates, although his velocities have not drastically slipped. Still he’s still a mid-3.00s FIP ace that can deliver 5 WAR value. Then you have Strasburg’s nagging injuries that held him out of nearly all of the 2020 season. He is expected to return from injury as a 3-4 WAR pitcher despite an ongoing decline in his pitch velocities. But most importantly, he replaces the outgoing Anibal Sanchez who got absolutely hammered in 2020 with a slightly better than replacement-level performance.
If Strasburg stays healthy, lefty Patrick Corbin then becomes the pivotal piece of the rotation’s success. Corbin parlayed a fantastic 2018 in Arizona into a key role on the Nats’ 2019 World Series season. Last season was still decent, if not forgotten in the team’s struggles to stay relevant in the NL East. Patrick suffered through a tough-luck .362 BABIP and should bounce back for a solid high-3.00s FIP year. These three top-tier arms will need to carry about 80% of the load though with what could be a revolving door below them. If push comes to shove, John Lester and Joe Ross could give way to 5.00 FIP pitchers Austin Voth or Erick Fedde. But if Washington’s big three stay healthy, look out NL East! This rotation is far from deep, but they make up for it on the front end.
Bullpen
The offseason addition of closer Brad Hand significantly upgrades Washington’s relief unit. Cleveland let their reliable reliever walk and the Nats scooped him up to lead their bedraggled bullpen. Hand is a fairly durable lefty coming off of a career season, which calls for a modest amount of regression. Even with a mid-3.00s FIP, Brad provides much more for the Nationals compared to what they got out of Daniel Hudson last year. But they haven’t cut Hudson off completely though. He still has a role as setup man after converting just 10 of 15 save opportunities and putting up an ugly 6.29 FIP.
Dave Martinez’ leash may be short with Hudson though, as Tanner Rainey, Will Harris, and Wander Suero could prove more effective in high-leverage situations. However, Rainey must kick the habit of walks and home runs if he wants to stay in his late-inning role. His fastball lost about 1 mph last year and hitters took advantage of this with increased exit velocity. That’s a different outcome from Wander Suero, who also lost some off of his bread-and-butter cutter but hitters struggled to hit the lefty. So aside from the Nats’ shaky swingmen Voth and Fedde, I see overall improvement through their added depth and dependability.
2021 NL East Projected Standings
- Atlanta Braves (93-69)
- New York Mets (93-69)
- Washington Nationals (89-73)
- Philadelphia Phillies (83-79)
- Miami Marlins (71-91)
Play Ball!
That wraps up our series of six divisional previews and win total breakdowns for the 2021 MLB season. Be sure to check in with the MLB page at BetCrushers.com to catch any that you’ve missed. We’ll have an Opening Day breakdown ready for you, then we dive into morning handicaps once the season starts. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email notifications…BOL this season!
