We move southwest from last week’s high stakes action in Las Vegas to California for Sunday’s Auto Club 400 at Fontana. We were treated to some spectacular racing in Vegas; three-wide, four-wide, and even five-wide action was not uncommon. There was just something about the competitiveness of last week’s race that has me very optimistic for this 2020 NASCAR Cup season.
Regardless of the “legitimacy” of the final caution with only a handful of laps left, it sure set the table for a furious finish that left Joey Logano as victor. The runner-up was Matt DiBenedetto, a guy I had my eye on in a scenario where the resources of the #21 team could provide an appreciable boost to his final position. He got some help with that late-race shuffle but would have finished in a 15th-or-better spot regardless of it.
DiBenedetto’s best finish at Las Vegas is 21st, which he did here twice last year. Punching through that barrier could be attributed to one or both of two factors: 1) his progression as a Cup Series driver and 2) a having a better car with the #21 team. Paul Menard finished no worse than 15th place in all eleven races at Vegas since 2011. A finish in the mid-teens or better could be a positive indicator to bump up expectations for Matty D at tri-oval tracks this season.
BetCrushers.com’s 2020 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas
Pennzoil 400 Wager Recap
That final sequence leads me to my biggest beef of last week: Ryan Blaney’s run to pit road during that final caution. He wasn’t alone, but the seven guys who stayed on the track for the last two laps of the race benefitted. Blaney was in the lead before the pit stop and was never able to weave his way back to the front from the 12th position. Why do I care so much? Probably my Blaney +275 to Top 5 bet had something to do with it. Six of the seven who stayed out of the pits finished at the front when the checkered flag flew. It was a legitimate strategic decision but was doomed when some strong cars like Logano’s stayed on the track.
OK, enough sour grapes from me. That bet failed, as did the Aric Almirola over Clint Bowyer matchup play. AA had a lead on Bowyer for the first two-thirds of the race but adjustments were made and the #10 fell further and further behind. The bright spot was a play on Denny Hamlin not to finish in the Top 5. That one was never in doubt. It certainly helped that he and Kyle Busch were forced to start the race in the rear.
Another reason why I am optimistic for this season is that I see even more betting options for the sport. As an example, SugarHouse sportsbook offers yes/no options on placing markets like the Top 5. I identified Las Vegas as a track where he had finished in the Top 5 only once in his career. Fortunately, there’s a bet for that. Diverse betting options like this means more ways to capitalize on juicy handicapping angles.
They Love L.A.
Fontana has been an annual stop on the Cup Series circuit since 1997, when Jeff Gordon won his first of three races here. It’s a 2-mile D-shaped oval with low banking that was built in the spirit of Michigan International Speedway. There’s something to be said about spreading the wealth at a track, and Auto Club Speedway is such a place. Fontana has crowned only two repeat winners since 2010: Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch. Jimmie won here twice and the defending NASCAR Champion Kyle took the checkered flag three times. Recent winners include a who’s who of the NASCAR elite:
- 2010 – Jimmie Johnson
- 2011 – Kevin Harvick
- 2012 – Tony Stewart (retired)
- 2013 – Kyle Busch
- 2014 – Kyle Busch
- 2015 – Brad Keselowski
- 2016 – Jimmie Johnson
- 2017 – Kyle Larson
- 2018 – Martin Truex, Jr.
- 2019 – Kyle Busch
Auto Club’s defending champ has been rock solid more often than not, finishing outside of the Top 3 since 2011 in 2016 (25th) and 2017 (8th). What about his prospects for 2020? Our friend, @NASCARStyleOdds raised a good point about the speed of the Joe Gibbs Toyotas so far this season in his Auto Club 400 race preview:
Just like in the end I didn’t see any Toyotas in the top 10 and I did not see these guys have any speed in practice either. This weeks race is even more about speed and aero.
Going back to Cali, Feb. 26, 2020
With this race taking place so early in the season, we don’t have the luxury of a strong sense of current form. As a result, I shift more weighting to a driver’s consistency at the particular track. How this consistency translates to the placing markets depends on price, but first we have to isolate who fits in which bucket. Complicating matters is the fact that Auto Club Speedway hosts only one Cup Series race per year, yielding limited data points to evaluate. ‘Tis the handicapper’s dilemma.
Top 5
Two drivers check this box: Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano. Brad, the 2015 winner, has finished in the thick of things in four of the last five runnings. He missed in 2016 with a 9th but followed it up with 2nd, 4th, and 3rd last year. Keselowski’s 7th place finish in Vegas last week looks good on paper though the proverbial “eye test” says he did not have a contending ride until the late-race caution put everything in a blender.
Joey Logano, on the other hand, had a fast car in the Pennzoil 400 and played the ending sequence perfectly. Logano logged Top 5 finishes in the last four Auto Club races and is hungry for his first Fontana win. Will last year’s runner-up performance motivate him, especially after the taste of victory last week? He looks fast so far this year, so there’s no concerns in that department.
Top 10
We’ve already detailed the prowess of NASCAR Champion Kyle Busch at Fontana. He’s won here three times in the #18 Toyota and also in 2005 while driving a Hendrick Chevy. Kyle seems like a threat to win anywhere at any time. As last year’s Auto Club 400 winner, you’ve gotta respect him. Busch has seven Top 10s in his last eight runnings here and the odds reflect it. However, I am inclined to stand by in wait-and-see mode with the Toyotas as advised by @NASCARStyleOdds until their performance stabilizes.
Ryan Blaney makes his fifth appearance in Fontana at the Cup Series level on Sunday. Dude has been fast in the early goings of the 2020 season with legitimate shots at winning Daytona and Vegas. He was knocked out via accident in his first Auto Club race in 2016. Since then, he’s finished 9th, 8th, and then 5th last year. Blaney’s young career has progressed steadily and got a shot in the arm after jumping into the #12 Penske Mustang in 2018.
Handicapping the Auto Club 400
After seeing the list of recent winners at Auto Club Speedway, you could just about guess who is sitting atop the odds board. Jimmie is in the sunset of his career, pushing his odds up to 25:1. All other active former Auto Club winners opened no better than +880. It’s still early in the season for me to fire heavily on an individual race, so I’m laying low on the to-win board and focusing on a couple strategic positions before the practices and qualifying runs.
Joey Logano (-125) to Top 5
Consistency on the track can easily be interrupted by accidents, mechanical malfunctions, or even a miscue in the pits. That’s another reason why I have to respect the work that Joey Logano’s team has put in at Auto Club Speedway since 2016. In addition to the four consecutive Top 5 finishes noted in the previous section, he finished 7th in 2015 and 3rd in 2013. Plus, he’s won three times at the sister track, Michigan International Speedway. Team Penske should have this #22 car in contention for another Top 5 Fontana finish, especially after showing off his speed in Vegas.
Ryan Blaney (-125) over William Byron
Up-and-comer William Byron takes his third Cup Series ride at Auto Club Speedway this weekend. The magic of Jeff Gordon’s old #24 Chevy hasn’t quite rubbed off on him in Fontana yet. Byron piloted his Camaro to 15th place finishes in both races here but could use a little luck after a rough start to the 2020 season. He was knocked out early in Daytona and was unable to finish strong in Vegas. William had a slow start to the 2019 season as well, taking until March 31st to finally crack the Top 10 at Texas. Blaney vs. Byron provides a solid way to back the kid with a low-juice matchup. Blaney’s Ford has been fast this year and his performance at Auto Club Speedway should continue to get stronger.
More in Store
The MLB season starts in less than a month and we’ve got your preseason prep covered. Our NL West preview came out on Monday with three season win total plays. The AL Central preview dropped Thursday morning and we’ve got the NL Central ready to roll for Monday. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below to get email alerts delivered straight to you inbox. Best of luck on the track this weekend!
