The 2019 American League West saw the Houston Astros make their second run at a World Series in three years. Oakland repeated their 2018 season with 97 wins and another loss in the Wild Card game. Below them, a trio of teams struggled to crack the .500 mark. The Angels couldn’t catch a break; the Rangers’ bats went to sleep; and the Mariners cratered after a few years of respectability. Houston dominated the offseason with revelations of trash cans and hidden cameras, but will they rule the roost in the 2020 AL West?
2019 Division Winner: Houston Astros
2019 AL West Standings:
- Houston Astros (107-55)
- Oakland A’s (97-65)
- Texas Rangers (78-84)
- Los Angeles Angels (72-90)
- Seattle Mariners (68-94)
Houston Astros 2020 Win Total: Open 97, Now 94.5
2019 Win Total: Over 96.5 (107-55)
After a rebuild for the ages, the Houston Astros have had a whirlwind thee seasons. Going 101-61 and winning the World Series makes their rock-bottom 2013 (and tenure in the NL Central) seem like decades ago. GM Jeff Luhnow combined a core of homegrown talent with acquisitions like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole to rattle off three straight 100+ win seasons and two World Series appearances. The team had it all: top-notch rotation, dominant bullpen, and a lineup that hit for average and power.
Despite some attrition and a season-long injury to starter Lance McCullers, the 2019 season resulted in another title run. If it wasn’t for those pesky Nationals, Houston could have won its second World Series in three years. Their Game 7 loss kicked off a string of disappointments culminating in the Astros’ trash-can-banging, possible-wire-wearing cheating scandal. Other than minor distractions (you know, like Mookie Betts being traded, the World Champions losing their best position player to free agency, so on and so forth), the MLB offseason was dominated by the wrath (and memes) of players and fans throughout the nation.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 91-71
Now that the cheating cat is out of the cheating bag, I’m saying the Astros will be 16 games worse than last year. OK, in full disclosure the projection has (almost) nothing to do with cheating or a cat. If anything, my handicapping senses should tell me to buy the dip. But I’m not and here’s why. Let’s start with the rotation: Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley are gone, Justin Verlander is 37 years old, and Zack Greinke is coming off of one of his best seasons since his days in Kansas City. I realize that Verlander and 36-year old Greinke are well-conditioned but age has to be a concern for the front office: the rotation is still tops, but it’s no longer on the elite level it was in years past.
The Astros bullpen is solidly above average with closer Roberto Osuna, back on a one-year extension. Despite walking the tightrope as a fly ball pitcher, Osuna whiffed a lot of batters on his way to 38 saves last year. Ryan Pressly, Chris Devenksi, Brad Peacock, and a cast of righties round out a good relief unit. Peacock made 15 starts for the Astros last year and can jump in the rotation if needed. With Verlander’s recent lat strain in Spring Training, this type of support may be needed sooner than later.
The strength of this Astros team is unequivocally their lineup. Hell, I project them to challenge the Dodgers as the most prolific offense in the MLB. This is a team that can mash and Jose Altuve is still a talented .300 hitter. Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez should each push 30 homers in 2020. One looming problem is that the AL West is catching up to the Astros, especially as the Angels beef up their lineup with Anthony Rendon. I set Houston’s range of wins between 86 and 93. The cheating scandal’s looming black cloud has larger downside factors that are admittedly difficult for me to quantify. Instead of betting their season win total under, I’ve made a higher-return play for reasons that will become evident when we talk about Oakland.
Oakland A’s 2020 Win Total: Open 89.5, Now 89.5
2019 Win Total: Over 81.5 (97-65)
Anyone who played the over on the A’s 2019 season needed just a .500 or better season. After a slow start, the last time they had a losing record was in the middle of an eleven-game win streak in May. Their summer surge propelled them to win #82 on September 5th and an easy cover of the win total. Oakland did it in true Moneyball style: a good rotation and lock-down bullpen with an underrated lineup that could flash some leather. In fact, the A’s defense graded out the best in the majors last year as highlighted by All-Star third baseman Matt Chapman.
Oakland’s unexpectedly successful season was not without challenges. DH Khris Davis was yawn-inducing after back-to-back-to-back 40+ homer seasons. Rising star pitcher Frankie Montas got popped for PEDs and missed all but one game of the season’s second half. In his 16 starts, Montas had a 9-2 record and a 3.00 FIP. Reliever Blake Treinen followed up his 38-save, 1.82-FIP 2018 season with a disappointing 5.14 FIP at -0.3 WAR. Needless to say, Treinen is no longer with the A’s. As you would expect from a 97-win team, the next man to take over this crucial role rose to the occasion. Liam Hendricks responded with a 25-save, 1.87-FIP season and will serve as the closer in 2020. This Oakland team is intact and ready to challenge the Astros for the AL West.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 90-72
Getting back to the playoffs begins with position players. Oakland’s All-Star Matt Chapman shares the left side of the infield with Marcus Semien, who has emerged as a two-way threat. Will he repeat with another 30+ home run/90+ RBI season? I doubt it, but Semien should still push 5 WAR this season while Chapman hovers above that level. First baseman Matt Olson is a legitimate slugger and very good defensively, but the Tony Kemp/Franklin Barreto platoon at second is an infield weak spot. Mark Canha is a solid corner outfielder complemented by the excellent defense of center fielder Ramon Laureano. Odds are, Laureano won’t register a third straight season hitting above .285 but his fielding skills give the A’s a significant advantage when playing in the cavernous Coliseum. Oakland’s position players arguably overachieved last year. I’ve knocked them back about four wins for 2020.
Oakland’s pitchers appreciate the elite defense behind them, and may need them even more this year than last. Although their bullpen will be above average again, I’ve factored in a couple games of regression. Liam Hendricks will be effective, but not 4-WAR effective. He’s joined by a solid Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria, and lefty Jake Diekman, making for a well-qualified and relatively deep bullpen. Their rotation should hold steady in terms of overall production from one season to the next. Mike Fiers is their ace in title, but the 34-year old’s walk rate and HR/FB rate are of particular concern. #2 starter Sean Manaea should top out at around the 2 WAR mark if he regains his pre-injury form.
The rotation looks more promising below those two. Frankie Montas’ fastball, splitter, and devastating slider form a three-pitch repertoire that should earn him the role of ace in the coming years. 22-year old rookie starter Jesus Luzardo has a bright future ahead of him that could manifest as early as this year. The “Jesus Lizard” caught the eye of the social media legend @PitchingNinja in his debut last September and should have your full attention this spring. Veteran Chris Bassitt is slotted as Oakland’s fifth starter but A.J. Puk has successfully rehabbed from Tommy John surgery and brings tremendous upside with his heater and power slider. The future of this rotation is bright, and the future could be here sooner than later.
WAGER: Oakland to win AL West +330 (@SugarHouse 3/8/20)
The A’s last won a playoff series in 2006. They’ve settled for a Wild Card berth the last two seasons and failed to beat the Yankees and Rays respectively. Winning the AL West would surely help their chances to make the ALCS, wouldn’t it? Oddsmakers have held steady with a 2020 win total around 89.5, and my projection sits in a tight range of 88-92 wins. A 90-win season is only one win below what I expect from Houston, not knowing the effects of all the on-field “consequences” coming their way. I’ve deviated from playing the Houston win total under by backing Oakland to win the 2020 AL West at +330 (two accessible offshore books posted +300). I do not typically bet pre-season divisional futures but this is a way to play the situation with arbitrage potential as the season goes on.
Texas Rangers 2020 Win Total: Open 79.5, Now 79.5
2019 Win Total: Over 71 (78-84)
The Texas Rangers made five playoff appearances and got to the World Series twice in the 2010s. But it’s been three years since the Rangers took down the AL West, given the stranglehold the Astros have on the division. 2019 was successful in terms of surpassing their win total, but their second-half decline took the shine off an otherwise decent season. Texas was a surprising playoff contender at the trade deadline, leaving them in a precarious position.
There’s a solid argument to be made that the team wasn’t overly disappointed to keep rising stars such as Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, and Danny Santana around the clubhouse. Sending players like these packing could’ve ultimately fetched the ballclub a shiny new prospect or two, but the team would essentially be giving up on next year if they stripped the roster any further.
Lennon Rush, How to Interpret the Texas Rangers Trade Deadline
GM Jon Daniels has rolled the dice in recent years with guys like Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, and Mike Minor in the rotation. And the gambit worked … for two out of the three, anyhow. Miller’s 6.40 FIP season did not pan out but Minor and Lynn turned out to be a stellar 11-WAR duo. The bullpen had an occasional gas can outing but remained generally serviceable. Ironically, the offense let the team down in their hitter-friendly stadium. Losing slugger Joey Gallo down the stretch and watching Elvis Andrus fade throughout the summer did not help. 2019 was successful in terms of oddsmakers’ expectations, but a letdown in the eyes of the players who saw the team fizzle after a strong first half.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 80-82
The Rangers’ new Globe Life Field was designed to “play fair,” meaning that the old park’s boost to hitters is a thing of the past. Baseball-reference.com assigned hitter-friendly, multi-year park factors of 111 & 112 to the old Globe Life Park. This won’t dampen the massive power of Joey Gallo too much and it should help the pitching staff. Minor and Lynn join forces with one of the offseason’s biggest catches, former Indian Corey Kluber. The Texas rotation also gets the services of a couple more free agent veterans in Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Considering that the Astros lost Gerrit Cole, the Rangers could challenge them as having the best rotation in the AL West.
Will the Rangers lineup respond accordingly and carry their weight at the plate? I say MEH. Outside of Joey Gallo, the offense does not have a lot of pop or consistency. Todd Frazier was acquired as a stop-gap at third base after the team missed out on Anthony Rendon. Rendon would have been a massive boon, especially after scoring Kluber to head up the rotation. Frazier will hold down the fort until 25 year-old Nick Solak is ready to take the reins. Until then, brace yourself for ups and (more) downs with Elvis Andrus, Rougned Odor, and Ronald Guzman. Centerfielder Danny Santana exploded on offense last year with 28 homers and a .283/.324/.534 slash line. The problem is that I have yet to see a projection that has Santana above league average at the plate.
It’s like we are living in some Bizarro World where the Texas Rangers are a team led by pitching. They haven’t outscored their opponents since their 2016 playoff season and the bullpen has league-average potential after a shaky spring 2019. Despite being a mid-3s ERA & FIP arm, Jose Leclerc is a very good reliever. A healthy Rafael Montero, Nick Goody, and company should improve in overall effectiveness from last season. They’ll have to, to back up strong starting performances. If this team is in contention for a Wild Card spot near the trade deadline, don’t be surprised if they make a run at Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant to shore up the Hot Corner. Pitching will improve while the Rangers offense continues to languish, leading me to agree with the oddsmakers’ win total.
Los Angeles Angels 2020 Win Total: Open 84.5, Now 85.5
2019 Win Total: Under 82 (72-90)
Former manager Mike Scioscia defined the Angels of the 21st century. He posted a 1,650-1,428 record and a World Series Championship in his 18-year tenure. Brad Ausmus took the reins in 2019 after Scioscia’s retirement and was promptly shown the door after a 72-win season. Did he get fired purely because of the team’s losing season, or was it more a function of Joe Maddon suddenly being available? After 14 successful years managing the Cubs and the Rays, Maddon came back to the organization he had cut his teeth in.
The tragic passing of starting pitcher Tyler Skaggs mid- season overshadowed the Angels’ disappointing 2019 season. His death hit Andrew Heaney, Skaggs’ closest friend on the team, the hardest. LA’s rotation had a forgettable year between this tragedy and one tough break after another. Matt Shoemaker was out for most of the season, Shohei Ohtani’s 2018 Tommy John surgery kept him off the mound, and Griffin Canning spent quite a bit of time on the IL. After being just one game under .500 at the All-Star Break, they faded down the stretch and ended the season running on fumes after losing Mike Trout in early September. It was time to turn the page, and bringing Joe Maddon back was the first step.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 84-78
Joe Maddon’s return to the Angels sparks promise given his ability to combine analytics with gut feel. The 14-win jump in expectations is partially tied to the way he effectively orchestrates a game from the dugout. He’ll need to work his magic with an average bullpen behind closer Hansel Robles and featured relievers Ty Buttrey and Cam Bedrosian. The rotation is a different story. I graded their 2019 performance as one of the worst in the majors, primarily due to the rash of injuries. What did the Angels front office do to help prevent another year of starting pitching going down like bowling pins?
Owner Arte Moreno scrapped the Ross Stripling deal after the Dodgers/Red Sox/Angels Mookie Betts trade drug out too long. That misfire aside, management has been active enough to trade for Dylan Bundy and Matt Andriese after picking up free agent Julio Teheran. Griffin Canning is dealing with elbow inflammation and Shohei Ohtani is expected to be back on the mound sometime in May. With Canning on the shelf, 23-year old Patrick Sandoval is poised to make the Opening Day rotation. Sandoval got a taste of the majors last year out of necessity (his AAA performance leads me to believe he needed more time at Salt Lake). Unless LA’s starters tumble like dominos again this year, they should yield about 5-6 games of improvement over 2019. This rotation is not quite league average, but a far cry from bottom-of-the-barrel.
Given the stop-gap rotation bolstering, the Angels are clearly relying on their offense to make them contenders. MVP Center fielder Mike Trout’s big bat and huge range makes him their Mr. Dependable. Then LA made a huge offseason move in snagging World Champion free agent Anthony Rendon. I expect a 5-6 WAR season from Rendon, rather than his recent 6-7 WAR level. Even so, the Angels will happily take a 30 HR/100 RBI output.
Rendon beefs up already solid .270+ hitters Tommy La Stella, Andrelton Simmons, and Ohtani. Newly signed Twins catcher Jason Castro improves a stout defense and helps out a shaky pitching staff. The problem is, all of this projected improvement is baked into the Angels’ season win total. I have to pass, though this club should make the 2020 AL West even more interesting.
Seattle Mariners 2020 Win Total: Open 69.5, Now 67.5
2019 Win Total: Under 73.5 (68-94)
Seattle had a dream start to 2019 with a 13-2 record. They scored double digit runs in four of those games and took three of four from the World Champion Red Sox. Expectations were low coming into March, so this fast start took a lot of fans by storm. Shrewd handicappers saw the underlying metrics as deceiving and unsustainable. Regardless, the Mariners were not a team to jump in front of – until mid-April. Their offensive power numbers were absolutely gaudy out of the gates. The big problem was that their defense and pitching were terrible. When the bats came back down to earth, Seattle hit a 12-36 skid and it was clear that the emperor had no clothes.
As you would expect from a team meeting low expectations, they were big time sellers at the trade deadline. Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, Roenis Elias, and others were shipped out for prospects. 2019 also closed a significant chapter for the Mariners franchise. Ichiro Suzuki retired after 11+ seasons with the M’s. King Felix spent his fifteenth and final season in the PNW after racking up 169 wins and a 3.42 career ERA. Hernandez was given a king’s sendoff at the end of an injury-filled season.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 66-96
The Mariners enter the 2020 season after a quiet winter. GM Jerry Dipoto is sticking to his guns with a full-on rebuild of this franchise. All of Seattle’s position players are familiar faces, with the exception of bench player Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo may not be long for the big league club if 26-year old Braden Bishop hits his stride in AAA and warrants a call-up. In the good news department, veteran third baseman Kyle Seager appears to be back on track after a bumpy 2018 and missing some time in 2019. Seager’s presence is important considering that standout outfielder/DH Mitch Haniger will likely miss the first half of the season.
Contrary to the perception that some may have from last year, this is not a good-hitting ball club. It’s not Detroit or Baltimore bad, but it’s adjacent to that neighborhood. This is a function of getting 20-somethings like Shed Long, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, and Evan White some valuable big league playing time. These are all guys with less than two years of MLB experience. So, if anything, we’ll be watching Seattle’s future develop this year. Seattle’s lefty-heavy lineup will platoon with utility players Austin Nola and Tim Lopes; also guys with very minimal MLB experience.
Seattle needs another 190+ inning season from ace Marco Gonzales because this rotation is quite thin. Japanese import Yusei Kikuchi was all sizzle and no steak in 2019, although most projections I use have his FIP dropping below 5.00 this year. Sub-1 WAR free agent starters Kendall Graveman and Taijuan Walker round out the rotation as placeholders for future arms like 24-year old Justin Dunn. Dunn will do his early season work in AAA Tacoma along with a group of relievers that have serious potential. Don’t be surprised to see Gonzales shopped if he has a solid first half of the season.
Sam Tuivailala, Matt Magill, and Yoshihisa Hirano are a serviceable bullpen core, but there is plenty of room for improvement. Young relievers like Gerson Bautista and Zac Grotz are in Tacoma waiting for their chance to jump up to the bigs. It’s all about the youth movement with the Mariners and a lot of these guys will get their chances in 2020 and 2021. For now, I see their bullpen taking a small step forward, another one by the rotation, and a backslide by their lineup. It’s going to get slightly worse before it gets better in Seattle, and I generally agree with the oddsmakers’ outlook for this club.
2020 AL West Projected Standings
- Houston Astros (91-71)
- Oakland Athletics (90-72)
- Los Angeles Angels (84-78)
- Texas Rangers (80-82)
- Seattle Mariners (66-96)
Be Ready for Opening Day
Opening Day will soon be upon us – are you ready?!? Our previous divisional previews are available by clicking the links for the NL West, AL Central, NL Central, AL East, and NL East. Don’t forget that the MLB page at BetCrushers.com is home to our daily plays and futures bets. Be sure to bookmark it and visit us throughout the 2020 season. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe to our email notifications to catch our handicaps when they go live.
