The Minnesota Twins owned the AL Central in 2019. They took the division lead on April 20th and ran away with it by smashing offensive records and by getting unexpected production out of starting pitchers. It looked like a runaway until the Indians picked themselves up off the mat and made a summertime charge. The bottom three teams sure left a lot to be desired, but something tells us that the 2020 AL Central could have an extra challenger – at least until crunch time.
2019 Division Winner: Minnesota Twins
2019 AL Central Standings:
- Minnesota Twins (101-61)
- Cleveland Indians (93-69)
- Chicago White Sox (72-89)
- Kansas City Royals (59-103)
- Detroit Tigers (47-114)
Minnesota Twins 2020 Win Total: Open 90.5, Now 92.5
2019 Win Total: Over 84 (101-61)
Minnesota blasted the 2019 win total out of the water with their first 100+ win season since 1965. Even though the Twins clearly had a stacked lineup heading in, I had no idea they would consistently be explosive. One quarter of the way into the season, The Ringer asked if the Minnesota Twins were for real. Here’s real for you: 307 home runs, .832 team OPS, 939 runs scored vs. 754 runs scored against. Their home run output was up 85% from the 2018 season!
The retired Joe Mauer left first base to C.J. Cron, whose 25 homers went well with DH Nelson Cruz’s 41 bombs. Catcher Mitch Garber came out of nowhere with 32 long balls and a .273 average. Eddie Rosario disguised his defensive shortcomings with 31 homers and 109 RBI. This team was a compressed spring and Rocco Baldelli’s new offensive philosophy broke open their record-setting power:
Overall, the Twins went from 20th to third in pull-percentage, and all of their plate discipline stats (pitches per plate appearance, zone swing percentage, etc.) indicated aggression at the plate.
Dan Szymborski, The Twins Crushed Their Enemies…Until October
The effectiveness of their pitching truly surprised me. The bullpen delivered a solid season, bolstered by an offense that regularly put them in advantageous positions. Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson came in before the trade deadline for even more depth. Trevor May and the Minnesota relief unit were good enough to preserve quite a few leads last year.
Unfortunately, the New York Yankees ended the 2019 Twins’ playoff run just as they did the year before. Their otherwise-trusty rotation sputtered as Martin Perez lost his secondary pitch and Michael Pineda was suspended in September. The Yankees buzz saw delivered the Twins one final loss, a loss that happened to be their 16th playoff bungle in a row.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 89-73
Oddsmakers recognize that 2019’s 101-win season was an outlier for this club. Given my estimated range of 87-90 wins, I also expect the Twins to come back to reality a bit. Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez left in the offseason, though it is questionable just how good Perez would have been for them this year. In their places are Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The good news is that Jake Odorizzi re-upped for another year and 25-year old Jose Berrios is poised to provide a youthful upside on the bump.
In the absence of top-notch veteran relievers, bullpens typically work their way towards the median in subsequent seasons. Minnesota’s relief unit is a group of solid arms anchored by Taylor Rogers. They should continue to be above average, though much of their perceived success rests on how consistently their offense can give them big leads to protect. Josh Donaldson takes over the hot corner and pushes Miguel Sano to first base. Second baseman Luis Arraez showed how high his ceiling can be in a partial season in the majors. Their core is still intact, but can you realistically expect an offensive performance on par with last year’s absurdity? Even if they can’t quite deliver, Minnesota is deserving of many projections as the 2020 AL Central champs.
Cleveland Indians 2020 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 85.5
2019 Win Total: Over 91 (93-69)
Cleveland entered the 2019 season as the team to beat after three straight AL Central titles. They took the division’s reins after the Royals disbanded their 2015 World Series Championship team. A top-notch rotation led the Indians to an almost wire-to-wire divisional lead in 2018, giving them plenty of confidence to shake off a postseason letdown and make another run at it. Misfortunes unfortunately hit the Indians early and often last year, leaving the Tribe faithful wondering what else could go wrong.
This Mike Clevinger injury on top of the Frankie Lindor injury makes me wonder. Next time an Indians player gets hurt and we hear it’s nothing serious should we skip the “Get Well” card and go right to “Our Deepest Sympathies”?
Bud Shaw, WKYC – April 10, 2019
Less than a month later, Corey Kluber took a line drive off of his forearm that put on the IL for most of the 2019 season. The Ringer posed the question on June 12th: “Just how screwed are the Cleveland Indians?” Their prospects to win the Central took a nose dive while the Minnesota Twins stayed on pace to shatter all kinds of records. Ironically, two days later the Tribe started a 59-36 run that would give the Twins a run for their money. In the midst of this, starter Trevor Bauer was traded in a three-team deal to acquire sluggers Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes plus prospects. No storybook ending came for Cleveland, as the Indians ultimately ran out of steam in September and missed the postseason for the first time since 2015.
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 85-77
Our 86-win outlook involves more feasting on the Central’s cellar dwellers than domination through the Indian’s absolute strength. Many, many questions circle this Cleveland team as they head to Opening Day. Could a poor start to the 2020 season finally bring about the oft-rumored Francisco Lindor trade? 2019 Comeback Player of the Year Cookie Carrasco and fellow starter Mike Clevinger were hobbling around camp this spring. Clevinger will miss all of Spring Training but will Carrasco join Shane Bieber in the rotation come Opening Day?
These three 3+ WAR arms are critical to this team’s success and only Bieber appears to be healthy at this point. Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale may need to move up from the back of the rotation out of sheer necessity. Cleveland’s bullpen is top-heavy with studs Brad Hand and Nick Wittgren, though it will rely on the young arms of Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak for depth. I don’t expect them to be on par with the Indians’ bullpens of yesteryear but they should manage to be at least a league-average relief unit.
A (healthy) duo of Lindor and Ramirez is one of the best in the American League. It’s the seven other positions that cause problems when it comes to offense. Roberto Perez should remain a top-tier defensive catcher but his bat is expected to cool after surprising production in 2019. Franmil Reyes and recent acquisition Domingo Santana cannot coexist in the outfield without creating a defensive nightmare, leaving one to fill the DH spot. Reyes worked hard to lose weight in the offseason, meaning that he could be the front-runner for fielding duties. Unfortunately, the outfielder carousel of Tyler Naquin, Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, and Delino DeShields will not provide an appreciable benefit for this offense. My 85-win projection may be optimistic with so much uncertainty, so count me out for the Cleveland win total.
Chicago White Sox 2020 Win Total: Open 80.5, Now 84.5
2019 Win Total: Under 73.5 (72-89)
The 2019 White Sox were who we thought they were: a middle-of-the-pack team looking for answers. Their previous 62-win season reminded us all that the days of a Chris Sale- and Adam Eaton-led club are a thing of the past (despite being the AL Central’s perennial 4th place finisher). Do signs of life in 2019 mean that it’s safe to call 2018 the low-water mark for the ChiSox? After all, this club was in the middle of a full-blown rebuild. With that in mind, many put them in the cellar with Detroit and Kansas City. Ironically, those two clubs would finish on a whole other floor level.
Part of last year’s problem was significant setbacks in the rotation. Before the season even got off the ground, Chicago had to face the reality of going without Michael Kopech and top prospect Dane Dunning. Then in May they lost Carlos Rodon, joining Kopech and Dunning with Tommy John surgery. Despite these travails, Lucas Giolito stood out as a bright spot. Management expected Giolito to be a rotation cornerstone, but who could know he’d go all hulk into 5-WAR stud territory after a poor 2018? High-upside Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Tim Anderson all took a step forward with their bats. Will all of this potential equate to a brighter future in the 2020 AL Central?
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 81-81
Milwaukee’s loss is Chicago’s gain when it comes to Yasmani Grandal. Grandal is arguably the best defensive catcher in the majors (elite-level framing sure helps) and he conveniently comes with a big bat as well. Bring in Edwin Encarnacion to hold down the DH position? You bet. This White Sox lineup could easily be twice as good as 2019. Of course, that only makes a bottom-third offense into an above-average one, but it’s a step in the right direction. The bright spot of Chicago’s thin farm system, centerfielder Luis Robert, gets an opportunity to make a big splash in 2020. Robert has 3-WAR upside and he should get a chance to prove it.
Michal Kopech will anchor the back half of the rotation and expectations are sky-high for Lucas Giolito. He’ll be backed by freshly-acquired veterans Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez. Additional depth with Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez sure won’t hurt. Word on the street is that Cease and Kopech may get a late start to the season as a way to manage innings, making this bolstered pitching staff even more valuable. Chicago’s bullpen is probably their weakest spot, though bringing in Steve Cishek gives them a shot in the arm. This club should take a big step forward in the AL Central, except they’ll need a Wild Card slot to make the postseason with Minnesota and Cleveland still ruling the roost. This will undoubtedly be an improved White Sox club, but I am too skeptical to back an eleven-win jump.
Kansas City Royals 2020 Win Total: Open 65, Now 64.5
2019 Win Total: Under 69 (59-103)
My, how the Kansas City Royals have fallen from the highs of their 2015 World Series run. “Rebuilding” is a loose characterization of what this team is currently doing. The on-field product may reflect a rebuild but is there actual progress towards putting together a winning team? Although MLB.com’s review of their farm system notes that “the top of the Royals’ list has some outstanding arms on it,” that’s about it. 2020 should bring more of the same. Good thing the local fan base has the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory to keep their spirits up.
The 2019 season was bizarre to say the least. Former Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton and pitcher Homer Bailey reunited in KC. Billy’s speed was better suited for the larger Kauffman Stadium and Homer needed a fresh start after struggling to regain his 2013 form. While Hamilton barely kept his average above .200, Bailey was surprisingly not bad. Fortunately for him, he was shipped to the contending Oakland A’s where he was even better. Those machinations aside, the Royals saw flashes of 2018’s Whit Merrifield and the defensive prowess of Adalberto Mondesi. Hunter Dozier was good and Jorge Soler smashed 48 home runs, so why did this team finish with only 59 wins?
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 68-94
Alex Gordon is a relic of the Royals’ glory days and, to our eyes, is clogging the prospect pipeline a true rebuild needs. Sure, he likely wouldn’t bring much in trade value but the open spot in the lineup would better serve their up-and-coming talent. New manager Mike Matheney has to make some difficult decisions if he wants to get guys like Bubba Starling and Brett Phillips some big league playing time. After all, a rebuild is about developing the talent of the future, right?
Kansas City’s rotation is decent from top to bottom despite not having a true ace. Mike Montgomery and Danny Duffy give them a steady, veteran presence to complement a pair of arms I am optimistic about. Jacob Junis could be a 2 WAR guy this season but it is Brad Keller who gives this club the most upside. I backed the sinker-baller a few times in the 2019 season when he seemed to be undervalued against fellow subpar teams. He lost a few percentage points off of his ground ball rate last year, so I imagine pitching coach Cal Eldred will emphasize getting back to basics this spring.
Although I expect some improvement from KC’s position players and rotation, it’s the bullpen that could be the Royals’ biggest liability. Mid-30s Ian Kennedy and Greg Holland lead a nondescript relief unit filled with question marks. Less-proven relievers like Scott Barlow, Tim Hill, and Randy Rosario will get their chance to grow and make their mark. My 68-win projection is shaded to the high side for two main reasons. The Royals’ 2019 record did not properly reflect their skill level and it is reasonable to expect them to take a small step forward. However, their downside risk is too high to take a position on the 64.5-game win total.
Detroit Tigers 2020 Win Total: Open 54.5, Now 56.5
2019 Win Total: Under 68 (47-114)
The Tigers finished the 2019 season with 47 wins, a whopping 53.5 games out of first place. There was one – and only one – positive in this: they did not surpass the 2003 club’s record 119 losses. Detroit’s decline has been personified by former All-Star Miguel Cabrera. Elite-caliber players often maintain a strong level of play well into their 30s, and Miggy did so as recently as 2016. His last three seasons, however, have been sub-1 WAR efforts. That’s also the last year that the Tigers had a winning record. Cabrera isn’t going to dig them out of their massive hole, so how does this club get on the road to recovery?
BetCrushers 2020 Projection: 58-104
I project Detroit’s lineup, starting pitchers, and bullpen to be well below league average again this season. Their offense will challenge Baltimore’s as the worst in the MLB. One small bright-ish spot is their rotation, which is just below average, not bottom of the barrel. Starting pitcher Matt Boyd is by far Detroit’s best player and should maintain a 3+ WAR level of output. He leads a serviceable corps of arms consisting of Ivan Nova, Daniel Norris, and Spencer Turnbull. There’s plenty of room in the rotation for Michael Fulmer when he returns from Tommy John surgery, though a return to 2017 form is debatable. Joe Jimenez leads a relief unit that should be a tad better than last year.
Detroit added several veteran free agent position players this offseason to give their prospects more time to mature. Cameron Maybin and Austin Romine came over from the Yankees while Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron defected from AL Central foe Minnesota. They are far from a long-term solution, but their combined 27+ years of MLB experience will make for a serviceable lineup. If the product on the field isn’t anything close to competitive, they’re going to need what may be a top-third farm system to produce big leaguers ASAP. A Tigers turnaround isn’t happening anytime soon and I tend to agree with the oddsmakers’ win total in the mid-50s.
2020 AL Central Projected Standings
- Minnesota Twins (89-73)
- Cleveland Indians (85-77)
- Chicago White Sox (81-81)
- Kansas City Royals (68-94)
- Detroit Tigers (58-104)
Call to the Bullpen
That’s the BetCrushers Team’s early take on the 2020 AL Central. If you missed our NL West preview, you can catch it here. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe to our email notifications to catch new handicapping articles when they drop. The MLB page at BetCrushers.com is home to all our daily plays and futures bets, so be sure to bookmark it and visit us throughout the 2020 season!
