When the boys in the AL West get together, you better buckle up because their games don’t land smoothly! Sitting on Oakland and Texas tickets yesterday, I knew this going into those games and certainly got my money’s worth! After a Cincinnati beatdown, a split on my AL West tickets left one game to decide the day’s fate: Giants/Marlins. Pablo Lopez pitched as advertised and out-dueled MadBum for a crucial win despite Sergio Romo’s best attempts to sabotage it.
A 2-2 day sheds a slight 0.09 units due to the juice on the Reds game. Cincinnati gets put up there with St. Louis as a team that I just cannot get a beat on. I’m either ahead or behind their good days, not on them. Their offensive inconsistency likely has a lot to do with that. Regardless, a split is a minor victory considering how sketchy those AL West tickets were. Bullpens, baby!
There’s a couple afternoon games and several more evening matchups on Thursday’s limited slate. We’ve got our hands full again today…
Boston Red Sox @ NY Yankees
The Price is Right: Yankees +147
Chris Sale is not a guy you want to bet against very often, until this year. He’s coughed up some big money as a +200 and greater favorite early in the season when the Sox weren’t in good form yet. The boys from Boston have hit their stride and face a stiff test in the Bronx. Sale has been solid in his last 3 starts, but not lights out (7 ER / 18.1 IP / 3 HR / 15 K / 7 BB). His ground ball rate has dropped to 31% and fly ball rate risen to 50% in May.
The Yankees are making it work with their “Plan B” offense, scoring 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 10 games. Sale won’t be a pushover, but I expect the Yankees to be opportunistic enough to push a few across on him. Happ will need some support, given that he is a mediocre starter that has yielded 5 home runs in his last 3 starts despite generating a very good 20.5% soft contact rate.
Anything goes between these two rivals, as we all know. This +147 is purely based on the starting pitching matchup without much respect to current form. Sale has an undoubted edge over Happ, but I give higher marks to the Yankees bullpen and lineup. New York is on an 8-2 run with both losses coming by 1 run. Boston comes in off of a train wreck series against a weak-hitting Cleveland team. Though there is something to be said about throwing all of this out the window when these teams collide, give me the home dog at this price.
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Opportunity Knocks: Twins +117
With Charlie Morton on the mound for the Rays, I can clearly see why the Twins are the dog tonight. This is a good thing in my opinion because it’s been a while since I didn’t have to lay big juice on Minnesota. Along with most of the betting public, I love backing this team when I can. Morton and the Rays will be a tremendous adversary against the big-hitting AL Central leader.
Martin Perez has cooled off a bit from his early-season dominance. He’s given up 3 homers in his last 3 starts and continues to struggle with walking batters (8 walks in his last 2 starts). The Tampa Bay lineup knows how to manufacture runs, so walks could be a big liability in this game. However, consistent hitting and power are what we have come to love about this Twins club. Their bats have fueled them to a 7-1 run and they come in fresh from a day off Wednesday.
Charlie Morton had a recent stumble against the Yankees but has been great otherwise. He limits hard contact (30%) and has a fantastic 53.6% ground ball rate. These are attributes that can frustrate the Minnesota hitters if he is sharp tonight. The Rays are on a 7-1 run as well, having won 5 in a row. So both teams are coming in hot and want to keep it that way. I would normally give the Tampa Bay bullpen an edge in this matchup, but they were stressed the last couple nights and were forced to stretch in extra innings yesterday. This one should be an excellent game to watch, and my money is on the Twins as dogs.
Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers
A Texas Thumpin’: Rangers RL +115
Jakob Junis and the Royals bullpen are going to have their hands full tonight in Arlington. Though the Rangers lay an egg on occasion with a 2-run output, this lineup is very productive and relatively consistent (well, at least the top 2/3rds of it is). They turn back to their stronger side against the righty Junis, and should have Gallo back in the lineup after a day off against a lefty in Seattle. Junis has been eating innings lately while paying the price in the meantime. In his last 4 outings, he has given up 16 runs in 22.2 innings. The Texas hitters ought to be licking their chops with this guy on the mound.
Mike Minor has been a rock for the Rangers this season. His last outing with more than 2 earned runs was on May 9th, and then April 22nd before that. Texas is on a 7-3 run that includes a 4-0 mark at home. Behind Minor’s low 35.5% hard contact rate, the Rangers should be able to outpace the Royals before handing it over to a very volatile bullpen. The Royals bullpen isn’t the hallmark of stability either. Could be an interesting finish!
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Another Shot: D-backs +127
After sweeping the Giants, the Diamondbacks must be disappointed with dropping 3 straight close games in Colorado. They get one more shot at a win this afternoon with rookie Taylor Clarke on the mound. Since taking care of business with a 3-inning save, he’s started twice and showed well in those outings. Maintaining his 25% hard contact rate and 48.9% ground ball rate is critical against this red hot Colorado offense. He’s yielded a respectable 5 earned runs in those 2 starts, a pace that would be acceptable in today’s clash.
Kyle Freeland is the main reason why I’m sitting on this Arizona ticket today. He’s given up 42 runs in 56.1 innings on a 42.9% hard contact rate. The Diamondbacks hitters are no slouches and should be able to take advantage of Freeland. Colorado has won 4 in a row, so momentum is a concern for me and my dog ticket. Both bullpens are solid, but I will give the Rockies offense an edge over Arizona. This is a bet against Freeland though the Arizona hitters must comply.
