Preview:
Only two days removed from the Chiefs comeback win in Super Bowl LIV and we’re already peaking ahead at some possible future plays, as we try to figure out who’s most likely to win Super Bowl LV in Tampa in 2021.
Not surprisingly, the Chiefs and 49ers opened as the early favorites to get back to the big game with the Ravens rounding out the top three. Recent history has shown us that at least one of the participants will be unable to get back to the Super Bowl, and possibly even the playoffs. Can Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan find the right formula or could we see an unexpected team get into the mix, much like San Francisco did this past season?
Examining Super Bowl LV Early Odds
Every team will enter the spring and upcoming season with new life and high expectations, although some will certainly be higher than others. Las Vegas has released it’s initial compilation of odds for the next winner of the Lombardi trophy. Odds vary slightly so as always if you have a team you like, you’ll want to shop around with sportsbooks, but let’s take a look at what Bovada is opening with below:
It can be pretty exciting to get the conversation going about the upcoming year’s football season, particularly when you may be going through some early withdrawals. You might be tempted to place an early futures wager on your favorite team, or the one you think has the best shot at winning in 2021. Let us be the first to remind you that the NFL offseason is about as unpredictable as the foreign stock market in terms of the amount of roster fluctuation we’ll see before the start of next season. This offseason offers a lot of intrigue at the most important position of quarterback as the decisions of some of the games all time best have big decisions to make, and some other teams may be jockeying for a new veteran starter. The odds above will change dramatically after some of the QB musical chairs completes its rotation and the music stops.
With so much unknown this early does it make sense to place a futures bet and if so where is the best place to start? There are varying opinions on getting a ticket in at this stage, but depending on what you’re looking for you may be able to find some real value. If you’re thinking about making a play here’s what we would recommend:
Step one is to take a look at the variables that are static or more well-known. As an example, the favorite Kansas City Chiefs are set to return 10 of 11 starters on offense meaning they should theoretically not be impacted by a lot of offseason movement. The BetCrushers are huge advocates of the New Orleans Saints, however we can’t possibly entertain putting in a bet on them at this point not knowing if Drew Brees will return or who will be taking snaps to start the 2020 season.
The second step is to break your potential future bets down into different tiers of odds/teams. We like to separate these into four different grouping categories. The first tier are the teams that are highly likely and expected to compete for a Super Bowl. These of course don’t have as huge of payout odds, but if you can pick the winner that’s the most important thing. These would be the top three or four teams such as the Chiefs, Niners and Ravens. Next you’d have your tier that you’ll really want to evaluate closely which is the field of teams that all have a legitimate shot to be playoff teams and make a run, but offer some nicer payouts. These would be some teams that might have made the playoffs this past season and have some core players and or quarterbacks back for next year. Teams like the Packers, Seahawks or the Steelers welcoming back Ben Roethlisberger would fall into this tier. Perhaps the most fun bunching to break down is the third tier which could be considered the “long-shots” who have some talented rosters and with a strong offseason could be one of the surprising teams in the 2020 season. Think of teams like the Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills. And finally, the last tier are teams that you realistically want to avoid despite their potentially huge payouts. Is there really a chance that the Panthers, Dolphins or Redskins could be crowned Super Bowl champions next year?
Breaking Down the Teams and Value
Kansas City Chiefs +600
All things considered, +600 is pretty good for a team that didn’t play it’s best game in Super Bowl LV and still won the title. The league and media expect Patrick Mahomes and this team to be the next dynasty and it’s hard to blame them as they return most of their big names. (DT Chris Jones is a free agent). Is it a foregone conclusion that Mahomes will challenge Tom Brady someday down the road, or could he be like Marino, Rodgers and Brees who never returned to the big show?
POTENTIAL VALUE – EXTREMELY HIGH
San Francisco 49ers +800
We all saw how the Rams failed to get back to the playoffs dealing with the Super Bowl hangover and that’ll be the question for the Niners entering next year. This team has a stronger core than the Rams had and with their key contributors back they should be right in the thick of things even playing in a tough division. Look for Jimmy Garroppolo to play at a higher level in 2020.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Baltimore Ravens +800
John Harbaugh and his staff did a masterful job crafting their offense around the league’s MVP Lamar Jackson. This team is balanced and as long as Jackson stays healthy they will be in the hunt for the AFC North again with their balanced offense, defense and strong special teams. The biggest question mark for this team is whether or not the rest of the league will have adapted to the dynamic offense and skill set of Jackson? The Ravens certainly have a solid chance to become champs, but at +800 the payoff doesn’t seem like enough for us.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
New Orleans Saints +1000
The Saints are a “wait and see” team for us as the decision their future Hall of Fame QB makes will determine their odds a little later. If Brees is back there is good value in this team as they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. We’re huge Taysom Hill fans, but if he has to take the reigns as the full-time starter, we’ll definitely have to pass until we know what he can do in that role.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
New England Patriots +1100
As of February 3rd there’s no guarantee that Tom Brady will be the starting quarterback for the Patriots, and even if he is, it’s hard to know how effective he will be. As is the case with the Saints, we’ll have to wait until Brady’s decision shakes out or if another signal caller takes the reigns. Here’s what does seem likely: This defense will be strong again next season and Bill Belichek is likely to get some new weapons for the offense.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Los Angeles Chargers +1600
This is one of the more puzzling odds for a team that was really bad a season ago and looks like it’ll be in the market for a new quarterback. This team was bit hard by the injury bug and does have some good talent on the roster, however they may end up missing the face of their franchise in Philip Rivers, depending on who gets the nod. Our handicapping has this team closer to a +3000 at this point in time so this is a hard pass on our end.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Green Bay Packers +1600
The Green Bay Packers are an absolute see-saw for us until we see how their offseason pans out. If they can get some help on the defensive side of the ball and a serious number two wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers, they could make a serious play at the show. If they can’t get those important pieces put together, this team is likely going to be stuck around the Wild-Card round in 2020. For now, we’ll list this as “medium” value, but this could vault to high value or sink to low depending upon how things go this spring.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Pretty nice opening odds for a team that couldn’t even crack into the playoffs and has some key free agents hanging out there. Those FAs should remain on the roster and playing in a division with really only the Eagles as realistic competition gives them a good chance to find their way back into the playoffs. Even though we’re not huge Mike McCarthey fans, he might end up being a good fit for Dallas as head coach. This defense needs to be upgraded and we need to see if the coaching is improved before we’re buying into this team.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Pittsburgh Steelers +2200
Despite flirting with the playoffs through the entire regular season the Steelers were basically toast when they lost QB Ben Roethlisberger for the season. With Big Ben set to return next year along with a presumably healthy James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster this team could have a substantial vault in 2020. They’ll have to battle in the division with the Ravens, but their defense should be pretty strong again and the revitalized offense makes them a contender.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Atlanta Falcons +2500
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the worst teams against the spread over the past two seasons meaning they’re overvalued. This seems to be the case as they have better odds than some of the deeper playoff teams from this season. While they did play much better down the stretch and they do of course have the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection, this team needs a lot of improvement on the defensive side of the ball, and to re-sign tight end Austin Hooper. It’s not impossible for the Falcons to make a run, but at +2500 the value doesn’t seem to be there right now.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Chicago Bears +2500
When you have a defense like the Bears do you always have a shot to get into the playoffs. It’s pretty apparent that with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback they’re only going to go so far however. We’d put the value here as low, except there is a chance that this team could have a veteran QB like an Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater which would instantly boost them. If that happens and they can improve the offensive line a bit, they’ll definitely have our attention.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Los Angeles Rams +2500
The Rams have some recognizable talent on their team and the league’s darling coach from just 13 months ago. That being said, it’s fair to wonder if this squad can ever really be elite or if they’re just going to be a “good” team, mirroring the personality of their quarterback Jared Goff. The best thing for this team is the cupboard is far from bare so if they can manage to add some help on the offensive line and keep some of their free agents they certainly should at least be in the conversation. The big challenge with this organization is they’ve mortgaged a bit of the future in terms of draft picks, etc. so how much they can improve might be capped a bit.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Seattle Seahawks +2500
In 2019 the Seahawks learned how to win on the road, even if they gave up a bit of their homefield advantage. Russell Wilson is clearly at his peak and there is a lot to like with this team. However, this defense was not good last year and there is no guarantee that they’ll be any better next year. It’s a big if, but if they can improve their defensive front and secondary they’ll be in the playoffs again and giving the 49ers a run for their money in the division.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Philadelphia Eagles +2800
We took a flyer on the Eagles last year that ended up being a bust as their season was derailed with the worst collection of injured stars in the league. Assuming karma works itself out this team will be back tangling with the Cowboys in the NFC East and hoping to make the jump back to the Super Bowl under Doug Pederson. This team has some big to-dos in the offseason including bolstering the secondary, wide receiver corp and adding some youth on the defensive line. At +2800 we might consider taking the bait again on this team, but we’re more likely to wait to see what happens with them in the free agency period and the draft.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Minnesota Vikings +3000
The Vikings had to go on the road and were bullied by the 49ers which put an end to what had been a nice second half of the season run. Kirk Cousins played really good football despite getting hammered in the media as usual. This offense should only get better next year and is potentially as good as any in the league not named the Chiefs. They have a few questions on defense with Everson Griffin and in the secondary, but make no doubt about it this team will be there when the important games are being played and could be a homefield advantage away from getting their first elusive Super Bowl victory. The Vikes being lumped into this tier of teams provides a lot of value if you believe in taking some risks.
POTENTIAL VALUE – EXTREMELY HIGH
Tennessee Titans +3000
Not a lot of love being given to a team that was winning in the AFC Championship game and was as good as anyone in the league after inserting Ryan Tannehill into the starting lineup. It looks as though the Titans are going to try to keep Tannehill in that role and if they do, this well-coached team is not far away from finding themselves in the playoffs again. A Super Bowl win isn’t necessarily something we envision happening, but this team’s odds should absolutely be more along the +2200 range in our calculations so there is some wiggle value in Tennessee if you want to risk betting it before a concrete answer on who will be starting at QB.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Cleveland Browns +3300
Not even a 6-10 season can damper the eternal hopes for the Cleveland Browns fans. The roster that may have featured the most players in TV commercials is getting a lot of love despite being dysfunctional as usual. Maybe a new coaching regime can be the spark that Baker Mayfield and company needs to put it all together? What happens with Myles Garrett could be a big part of how this team rebounds, but this team needs to become an actual team and not just some big names. The likelihood of this team going from implosion to Super Bowl champs is pretty slim so we’d advise you steer clear.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Indianapolis Colts +3300
Is there a more “average” team in the league than the Indianapolis Colts? The jury is still out on if Jacoby Brissett will be the starter next year which could impact their chances depending on what happens there. Frank Reich is a good coach and this team will be a tough matchup for whoever they are playing every week, but they just don’t seem like they’ll be able to overtake the top teams in the AFC with the way they’re set up.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Las Vegas Raiders +3500
The first season in Vegas is sure to be exciting for the Raider Nation and Jon Gruden has this team playing hard. Don’t be surprised if the silver and black are very active in the offseason and that could include a play for Tom Brady. We’re not sure this team can be a champ just yet, but there is no question they will be exciting in their new stadium. If you’re thinking about playing them, now is the time to do it as they’ll likely be adding some pieces pushing this value down a bit. It’s tempting, however we just can’t do it.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Houston Texans +3500
You can make the argument that the +3500 odds are too high or too low with the Houston Texans. They seem destined to be one of those one and done type teams in the playoffs, but their at times they are electric. As much as we take some heat on this, Deshaun Watson seems to get a little more hype than what he deserves due to the occasional highlight reel play. As long as Bill O’Brien is at the helm for this team it’s hard to take them too seriously despite the fact they’re really just a few pieces away from having a stacked lineup.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Buffalo Bills +4000
The Buffalo Bills took the leap to being a legitimate playoff team and have clearly narrowed the gap in the AFC East versus the Patriots. This team is in great position with the 2nd most cap space for the offseason, very few free agents, and extra draft picks. More importantly quarterback Josh Allen has some more experience under his belt and there is some good talent on both sides of the ball. If general manager Brandon Beane can wisely spend that cap money and draft well this team will be a tough out every weekend. Yes a Super Bowl win might be a little far-fetched but this team has odds similar to teams like the Bengals and Jaguars so if you want a pure value play long-shot this would be one to look closely at.
POTENTIAL VALUE – EXTREMELY HIGH
Jacksonville Jaguars +5000
There are a ton of questions with this ballclub and it’s nearly impossible to know what this lineup is going to look like on opening day. One thing we do know is this team has a lot of holes to fill if they want to keep pace with the Titans and Texans in the AFC South. At this point we have to assume Gardner Minshew will get the starting nod at QB and this team could be in the market for another during the draft. This team is simply too far away to contend at this point in time.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5000
Bruce Arians made some nice strides with this TB team in his first season as head coach. Will Jameis Winston be the starting QB or will Arians and company opt for one of the veterans that will be on the open market? It sounds unbelievable, however this team is potentially really close to being really good. Again, can they win the Super Bowl? Probably not, but at +5000, they’re worth a small wager.
POTENTIAL VALUE – EXTREMELY HIGH
Denver Broncos +5000
Rookie quarterback Drew Lock showed some really nice signs in his limited opportunities. If Lock can progress, this team could be back on the verge of the playoffs sooner rather than later. Welcoming back Bradley Chubb from injury and the emergence of Courtland Sutton at WR make this an up and coming team. They have some question marks with some of their veteran talent as free agents and still have a little work to do though before this is a Super Bowl caliber team. A reasonable step would be a playoff berth, likely via wild card in the division with the defending champs.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Carolina Panthers +6600
Some good news out of Carolina as it looks like they’ll have Cam Newton back under center and hopefully healthy next year. That might be good news? Outside of all-world RB Christian McCaffrey and WR DJ Moore this team is in a really bad spot with holes across the defensive side of the ball, accentuated by the sudden retirement of face of the franchise Luke Kuechly. With a new coaching staff in place this team is in full rebound mode and will probably be picking in the top 5 of the following year draft.
POTENTIAL VALUE – LOW
New York Giants +6600
How well the Giants do this season will be largely predicated on two big factors. How an overhauled coaching staff will handle the team, and how much second year quarterback Daniel Jones can improve. This team could potentially be good offensively, but the defense needs a lot of work. Adding an extra win or two is feasible for the G-Men, but they’re still playing catch up to the Cowboys and Eagles in the NFC East.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Detroit Lions +7500
All things considered the Lions didn’t perform terribly despite their record in 2019. With Matthew Stafford returning as well as some of their offensive weapons this team should be able to put some points up. Matt Patricia was brought in with a defensive pedigree but the patience is wearing thin for a defense that has struggled mightily. We wrote this 12 months ago and the same seems to hold true, this team isn’t bad, just unfortunately playing in a division with three pretty good teams ahead of them.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
New York Jets +7500
The Jets season started out rough with a poor national TV performance from quarterback Sam Darnold, followed by a long losing streak as he was out with his famous bout of mono. Having C.J. Mosley shelved for almost the entire year didn’t help a defense that outplayed expectations. There are some question marks regarding free agency, particularly on the offensive side of the ball but this is a team that should win more games in 2020. If the Patriots do finally regress, the Jets could be vying for a playoff spot. Like many of the long odds teams, it’s doubtful they could win this bet, but at +7500 this is at least a team that could come out of left field to surprise some folks.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Arizona Cardinals +8000
A year ago the Arizona Cardinals were a team that was victim to having some huge stars, but was really lacking the complimentary role players. The good news is stars are harder to find than depth so Cardinals fans should be excited about the future with Kyler Murray at the helm. If this team can build the offensive and defensive lines with quality big men and add a receiving weapon and some physical safeties they could get good quickly. They’re still a year away from really being a contender so keep your eye on them as they trend in the right direction.
POTENTIAL VALUE – HIGH
Miami Dolphins +12500
Reports are that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to return and give this team a “bridge” year as they’re certain to draft a quarterback in the draft. Fitzpatrick deserves some sort of award for what he was able to do for head coach Brian Flores and this organization last year. The Dolphins are in full rebuild mode and are loaded with high draft picks. It would be really exciting to be a GM of this team moving forward, just not for this upcoming season. Stay tuned Dolphins fans, this is a critical draft for your team’s future.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
Washington Redskins +15000
We were a little surprised to see the Redskins as the lowest favorite entering the offseason, although when you look at the roster and the new staff it kind of makes sense. The Redskins organization is really in shambles, something that is clearly irking owner Daniel Snyder. They made a great hire at head coach and Dwayne Haskins showed some signs of improvement the last month or so of the season. Much like they were in 2019, this team will be scrappy in 2020, but will fall short on the scoreboard more times than not. We don’t think they’ll finish dead last in the league as these long odds would suggest, but they’re certainly not a playoff team yet either.
POTENTIAL VALUE – MEDIUM
WHAT WE’LL BE FOLLOWING:
Based on the potentially volatile offseason we’re not putting a lot of money on the line just yet. We’ll have some more concrete plays with team win totals over the summer once the dust has settled and rosters are more firmly in order. Our beer money wagers are likely going to be centered around the teams above we listed as offering what we perceive as extremely high value. A play on the defending champs is worth it at the +600 and the Vikings are pretty juicy at +3000. Other than that we’ll probably sit tight for for the time being. Check back and follow us on Twitter @TheBetCrushers all offseason as we’ll be following all of the moves in free agency and the draft.
Who’s your early pick for next year’s Super Bowl champ? Let us know!
