Guess the outfield was a little on the soggy side last night for the Twins/Angels series finale. This cancelled one of my two plays, which is unfortunate because the other play (Diamondbacks/Padres) was a complete bust. Eric Lauer was painting the corners while Merrill Kelly was allergic to the strike zone. San Diego staked themselves an early 5-0 lead and never let go, despite a weak attempt at an Arizona comeback in the 9th. Kirby Yates was brought in to put the fire out and end it at 5-2. Arizona is clearly in a funk and my +120 bet on a “small edge” game just didn’t work out.
We leave a 0-1 Wednesday behind with a loss of 1 unit and look to a short, early slate in the MLB. One bet is in and one is pending…
Minnesota Twins @ LA Angels
Play Pending
For all the reasons discussed in yesterday’s article, I look to back Minnesota again today once the game is posted in my sportsbook accounts. I do not doubt that the price will be considerably higher than yesterday’s -117 wager but I am willing to go to -130 or manufacture a -1 spread bet to back the Twins.
As I said yesterday, it’s not an auto-fade on Matt Harvey. Harvey’s big problem is not going deep into the game, which is mitigated to a degree by a good bullpen that now has an extra day of rest. Martin Perez is very good at reducing the opponent’s scoring efficiency, holding them to only 17 earned runs in 52 innings. I’ve tempered my expectations on him since there is a differential in his general metrics (2.89 ERA / 4.15 xFIP), especially with many of his outings coming against weak lineups. An exception to this was a great 0-run, 8-inning start against Houston on May 1st.
Minnesota’s power and run-scoring efficiency are head-and-shoulders above LA’s. Harvey’s 9.8% soft contact rate leaves a lot of meat on the bone for the Twins hitters, while Perez’s 18.8% soft contact rate matches up well against the Angels. The Twins do not want to rely on late-game heroics to score against a tough LA bullpen, so the Twins will need to get to Harvey early and often.
NY Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Pricey but Good: Yankees RL -130
Sometimes you’ve gotta bite the bullet and lay some juice. In this case, I’m laying the juice on a run line play against Dylan Bundy and the Orioles. Although Bundy has a low 26.2% hard contact rate, his low ground ball rate (34.6%) and high HR/FB ratio (18.6%) is a bad combination for the home team. The quandary I face when handicapping him is current form as compared to his season profile: he’s yielded 0 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts.
Masahiro Tanaka appears to have settled into a groove in his last 3 starts, 2 of which have come against the AL East lead chaser, Tampa Bay. He’s produced 3 quality starts and has limited walks after a few stumbles in April. A 14.3% HR/fly ball ratio is not great but he does have a decent 45.8% ground ball rate. The Yankees have relied upon power to get the job done lately, resulting in an 8-1 run and a 4-game winning streak. They’ve scored 28 runs in the last 3 games against Baltimore, though the O’s have put up 16 runs themselves. Rain is in the forecast, so we’ll see if this one goes off on time or at all.
