Tuesday was a day where I took shots on four aces via the run line. Early in the season I look for solid pitchers at home whose teams have an offensive advantage. My guys yesterday were Sale, deGrom, Castillo, and Greinke. None of those were reasonable money line players due to their high prices so I went to the run lines.
The Red Sox had an added bonus of finally getting home and celebrating their World Series win. Naturally, the Blue Jays played textbook small ball and exploited tight windows to demoralize the Sox early. deGrom served up batting practice to the Twins in the 3rd inning then the game snowballed out of control late. Zack Greinke struggled mightily in the first couple innings and the D-backs couldn’t get the run line money. A near miss, but one that started with an ace with rough edges. The three aces looked more like Jacks.
Tuesday’s bright spot was a no-doubter by the Reds. Luis Castillo delivered as promised and the bats throttled Miami 14-0. Though it may not seem like it in my wagers so far this season, I love underdogs and am always on the hunt for live ones. But the 1-3 day drops 2.1 units. This doesn’t rattle me though there’s absolutely no doubt I want to win.
After some data mining early this morning, I’ve integrated info from the first couple weeks of the 2019 season. My bet size is still 1% of my bankroll, but that will likely get bumped up this weekend. Is it time for a slump-buster?
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
It’s going to be cool and breezy in The D this afternoon, where the Tigers look to get back in the win column after yesterday’s loss to the Tribe broke their 5-game streak. Matt Boyd wants to repeat his 13-K performance against the Yankees today against their AL Central foe. The Tigers have played very good ball this season, exceeding any realistic expectations for this club.
The Indians have been crawling their way back up towards the top, posting a 5-game win streak of their own. Trevor Bauer has delivered 7 innings in both outings this season, in which he’s given up only 1 run. His pitch mix is stellar even if his velocity is questionable. Even though it’s early yet, the Indians want to get their season back on track after a stumble out of the gates. They’ve covered the run line in 4 of their 5 wins during this streak, and that’s the way I have to play this one.
WAGER: Indians RL +120
Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox
Reynaldo Lopez takes the mound in some South Side afternoon baseball. It’ll be cool and breezy here as well, so this hard thrower wants to keep the Rays’ offense to a minimum. He is prone to giving up the long ball at home and can have serious command and control issues. The ChiSox are on a 4-game losing streak in which they’ve lost by at least 4 runs in each of those games.
The visiting Rays have picked up where they left off in 2018: winning games. They’ve covered the run line in all 9 wins this season and have a great opportunity against Lopez to get on the board early and often. If it goes to the bullpen, Chicago’s has been a massive liability while Tampa’s has been very solid. Not much I don’t like about this matchup today, although Glasnow is not bulletproof. The key for him is effectively mixing in good breaking balls to keep the White Sox off balance.
WAGER: Rays RL +100
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
As a Reds backer last night, what wasn’t to love about the Reds’ 14-0 dismantling of the Marlins? It was the perfect storm of Luis Castillo’s dominance and the ineffectiveness of Jose Urena. This pitching matchup is significantly different though. Trevor Richards has started the season decently for the Marlins, getting a quality win against the Rockies but was unable to keep it together against the Mets. He has a great changeup but the fastball is lacking.
Other than Opening Day, Cincy has struggled to put together wins. Last night appeared to be an exorcizing of a lot of their demons during the 8-game losing streak: close games, bench brawls, you name it. Tyler Mahle has only 1 start, which was 6 innings of no-run ball at Pittsburgh. His weak spot in 2018 was giving up the long ball and walks. Not sure if Miami is the team to exploit the long ball, but any club can be successful if given enough free passes. The Reds had too many close games that didn’t pan out their way so far, which can affect a team in different ways depending on their composure. Last night may have boosted their spirits and restored some confidence. I’m willing to back them again against Miami for a good payoff.
WAGER: Reds RL +140
LA Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals
Kenta Maeda looks to right the ship against the Redbirds. They were on a 5-game win streak before dropping their last 2 in St. Louis. Maeda has pitched decently this year, but he absolutely must keep his walks to a minimum. The Dodgers have struggled offensively in this series against the Cardinals. Going against today’s starter, Jack Flaherty, could help with this brief power outage. Flaherty has been putting runners on base left and right so far in 2019, something that the Dodgers’ bats can take advantage of. The Cardinals are on a 3-game win streak in which they’ve scored 4 runs in each. They’ve played close, scrappy games all season but I expect LA to get their offense back on track tonight.
