Tuesday: my nemesis this MLB season. Fortunately, I played yesterday’s slate about as good as I could have. My handicapping process led me to 4 sides that had promise but I was hesitant to overextend and potentially take another big hit. I sharpened the pencils, played 2 wagers, and left 2 on the bench. The bench-sitters, Diamondbacks and Reds, both lost and served as great examples of the adage, “Some of the best bets are those not made.”
The Brewers/Phillies matchup featured a pair of pitchers who had been very effective lately, but only one delivered: Brandon Woodruff. Eickhoff gave up 5 runs in 4 innings and realized my concern that his 1.50 ERA could be a smokescreen for his 4.06 xFIP. Swing and a miss there.
Enter the Royals, who had a dream matchup: Shelby Miller and the Texas Rangers bullpen. KC delivered 9 runs in the first 2 innings, exceeding my expectations and getting to the relievers in the 2nd inning. They had to shake off an odd 3rd inning that saw the Rangers score 4 (2 off of a lost popup in left field) and the Royals look lost. Duffy started strong but lost his touch in the 3rd, though the Royals got great work from their bullpen to lock it down.
Consider me relieved with a 1-1 Tuesday finish that added +0.35 units due to the Royals run line cover. Week 7 is now at 2-1 with +1.40 units. We’re grinding, and it continues today…
LA Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Today’s early game is my only play. Quite frankly, this one is all about the starters so the wager lives and dies with my expectations for Trevor Cahill and Jake Odorizzi. Cahill is a home run machine, (not a good thing for a pitcher) giving up 13 long balls this season. With the exception of his last start in Baltimore, he failed to get past the 4th inning in the previous 4 starts. Fortunately, Trevor is backed up by a very good bullpen and a good defense. While handicapping this game, I tempered my expectations for a complete failure of an outing due to his 6.35 ERA/4.93 xFIP combination.
Jake Odorizzi sits on the other end of the spectrum from Trevor Cahill. He’s given up less runs than Cahill has given up home runs in the same number of games. In his last 3 starts, Odorizzi yielded 0 runs and 7 hits over 20 innings pitched. As with Cahill, I regressed his numbers a bit to reflect his 2.32 ERA/4.49 xFIP. Still, my expectations for him are high at Target Field this afternoon.
The more that I dug into this matchup beyond the huge pitching discrepancy, the more I concluded that these two clubs have a lot of similarities. Both bullpens have gotten stronger and more consistent through the season, though the Twins relief unit has shut the door on any scoring lately. Each offense has nearly-identical baserunner production and scoring efficiency factors. In fact, LA has improved in these areas recently while Minnesota has come down a hair.
With equal marks to the offenses and bullpens, the difference in this game as I handicap it is the starting pitchers. Home field advantage plays a part, but also detracts from the viability of the run line. Nonetheless, the wide gap between starters is difficult to overcome especially when Cahill has the potential to put extra pressure on the shoulders of the Angels’ relievers.
