No mysterious late cautions, just pure hard racing by Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr. closed out Sunday’s battle at Watkins Glen. Elliott (+1000 pre-qualification; +500 race day odds) earned the pole on Saturday, then proceeded to dominate the race and take the checkered flag. Chase had struggled before hitting the road course but was clearly overflowing with confidence after qualifying at the head of the pack. The #9 team had the best car and a young driver determined to defend his title at The Glen. With that in the rear-view mirror, it’s time for the BetCrushers NASCAR race preview at Michigan.
Michigan International Speedway Track Overview
The NASCAR Cup Series teams revisit Michigan this week after their recent stops at one-of-a-kind tracks Pocono and Watkins Glen. Michigan International Speedway (MIS) hosts two races per season; a June race and an August race. The key difference is that the FireKeepers Casino 400 (run on June 10th) is a Saturday evening race, whereas this weekend’s Consumers Energy 400 is a traditional Sunday afternoon running.
MIS is a 2-mile D-shaped track similar to Cup Series stops Texas World Speedway and Auto Club Speedway in California. Speeds at Michigan are some of the fastest, and now its wide corners will be treated with the PJ1 resin for this weekend’s races. This extra grip at the top of the banked corners will diversify the lines and enable passing essentially anywhere. This weekend’s track is about as big as they come without restrictor plates.
Michigan’s size is conducive to big runs, drafting lines, and position battles in and out of the corners. Usual suspects Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski have posted great results here since 2018, though Kurt Busch has had just as much success in recent years. Joey Logano won the June night race, while Kevin Harvick is the defending champion of this August race.
Pre-Qualification Observations
The Truck Series has Saturday morning qualifications and an afternoon race on the track, so the Cup Series will have a Friday afternoon practice and evening qualifying. A pair of Saturday morning practices will give the teams some final reads on their cars and the MIS track. This is the first time these guys will be running Michigan with the PJ1 resin in the corners, so expect some experimentation with lines Friday morning.
The two post-qualification practices are very important to monitor. These runs should give us more insight into any adjustments the teams had made that could lead to improved performance over what the starting grid positions tell us. Expect for the books to take the matchup wagers off the board before the Friday morning practice.
The Usual Suspects
Kyle Busch sits on top of the to-win board Wednesday morning at +400. Although he hasn’t won at Michigan since 2011, he has delivered five straight T10s and three straight T5s. 2013-16 were the “dark ages” for him at Michigan, finishing outside the Top 20 in five of seven races.
Kevin Harvick (+450) sits right behind him as the defending champ of this race. He’s a guy who has nailed nine T10s in his last 13 races at Michigan. Truex, Jr. (+550) has been hit-or-miss on this track but comes in pretty hot after finishing 3rd at Pocono and 2nd at The Glen.
Michigan native Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano round out the top 5 on the odds board at +700. We successfully played Keselowski over Logano last week and will be looking at this matchup again this week. These guys are locked into the playoffs but continue to battle for position week in and week out.
Stay Local with Brad Keselowski
Whether it is reading articles on the internet or watching practice coverage this week, you’re going to hear plenty about Brad being a Michigan native. This is Brad’s “home track” and he consistently lurks in the Top 10 here. +700 to win doesn’t look great at this point, given the stiff competition and his decent – but not great – current form.
Tough Matchups
When you’re one of the top 5 guys on the playoff points list, the head-to-head betting matchups are not going to be easy. He’s paired against Kyle Busch, Truex, Harvick, and Logano; a gauntlet of the Cup Series’ best drivers. Truex, Jr. comes in red hot and Harvick has been rock solid in day races at Michigan. Out of those four matchups, Logano is about the only guy I can comfortably isolate him against at this point.
Joey Logano won the rain-delayed night race in June and should be getting some love with the odds for that. I am currently on the fence whether to play this matchup pre-qualification or on race day. Brad has edged out Joey in the last three runnings of the August day race at Michigan and has been running slightly better over the past few races. This is definitely a wait-and-see matchup where the Friday and Saturday sessions could push us off of this play.
Keep Your Eyes on Kurt Busch
There could be solid value in Kurt at Michigan, similar to what we expected from him at Watkins Glen. He’s notched three T10s since 2017 and has finished no worse than 12th since 2015. Kurt won the 2015 June race and was runner-up here a couple months ago.
This may seem very obvious, but stay tuned to the qualification position he gets on Friday. If he is in one of the top 12 or so slots on the starting grid, consider a Top 10 wager anywhere from -125 or better. He’s finished several positions better than where he started in all but one of his last seven races at Michigan (he had the pole in June 2018 and finished 3rd).
Matchup Pick ’ems
As of Wednesday morning, our accounts show that Kurt is matched up against Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. Both matchups are -115 pick ’ems. Elliott’s victory at Watkins Glen last week righted the ship for him this season, but I don’t know whether that success will roll over to Michigan. He’s been on the outside of the Top 10 here since 2017 after logging four straight T10s to start his Cup Series career on this track.
Kyle Larson has been running decently since his 14th place finish in the June race at MIS. Despite not finishing in the Top 10 since 2017, he has the distinction of being a back-to-back-to-back (Tom Emanksi) winner on this track in 2016-17. Evaluate all three of these cars through the weekend to determine if Kurt has a better ride.
Heavyweight Battle: Kevin Harvick vs. Kyle Busch
The average NASCAR driver gets a little worried when the #18 Toyota is in his rear-view mirror. Kyle Busch is a “take no prisoners” driver who runs with a vengeance. Just look at last week’s race where he got spun out twice and hunted his way back both times, trading paint along the way.
Kevin Harvick isn’t a guy who is intimidated by much of anything. He’s a tough competitor who has been a rock in the August MIS races. His win in 2018 followed six 2nd-place finishes in eleven Michigan races. In fact, he has Top 5 finishes in five of the last six August races here. His win at New Hampshire has propelled him back into good form, notching a respectable 6th at Pocono and 7th last week at The Glen.
Harvick is no less focused than the other top-tier drivers on taking down the NASCAR Championship this season. Kyle has three T5s in a row at Michigan, though his success at this 2-mile track was very limited before 2017. It never feels good to fade the most dominant driver on the circuit, but this is a spot where we’ve taken an early position on Harvick (-115) over Kyle Busch.
