Monday was a good start to this week. Coming off a brutal week, it was very important to get some good reads and even better results. 2-1 on short dogs got the job done, adding 1.16 units back to the bankroll and shaving the season loss to -6.34 units. The influx of better 2019 season data appears to be shading things more towards value on dogs, which is typically where I like to be for MLB wagering.
Winds were howling in Philly and both starters were knocked around for 5 runs in the first 5 innings. Thor spared the bullpen one less inning, which was crucial because the middle relievers were not good. Familia and Gsellman walked 4 in the 8th to tie it up, though the Mets pulled it out in the 11th. Not the way I drew it up but a win nonetheless.
Shoemaker was decent except for a bad 4th inning that relinquished the lead to the Twins. Whether you’re backing or fading the Twins, you know the game is never in the bag. Like I said yesterday, the Minnesota bullpen continues to walk the tightrope and this time they didn’t make it out unscathed. Kikuchi had a rough start and Bauer was very solid into the 7th. The Mariners did their best to put on a comeback but fell a bit short.
Looking to build some momentum this week, I have my eyes on another pack of live dogs tonight. And just like my BetCrushers guys love their college hoops Road Dogs, I’m getting down with a four pack of them in the MLB…
NY Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Let’s run it back. Steven Matz gets the start after yesterday’s 11 inning thriller in the South Philly gusts. Matz has been getting a good amount of strikeouts this season with only one outing where walks were an issue. Free passes are no bueno against a very good lineup like Philly’s. I’d say he’s in B+ form and will need to get through the 6th to give New York an honest chance at picking up the win. As I said yesterday, I really like this Mets lineup even though their relievers can be a liability (as with 20 other MLB teams, to be honest). After a brief hiatus on Sunday, they’re back to scoring 6 or more runs per game.
Nick Pivetta has not been doing a good job of keeping runners off the bases. He’s running a .447 BABIP and has given up 3 homers at Citizens Bank Park. Unless there is a dramatic change in his command and control tonight, you have to expect more of the same. The Mets are willing and able to take advantage of Pivetta’s rough start to the season.
WAGER: Mets +107
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
The Cardinals got outgunned by the Brewers last night, giving the Crew a 1.5-game lead over them and the Pirates. Hudson was bad and the Cards never got back in it (3 bombs by Yelich didn’t help). Young Jack Flaherty takes the mound with some good momentum coming into the game. After giving up 4 runs in his opener against Milwaukee, he’s coughed up only 1 run in his 2 recent starts. Goldschmidt got back in the mix last night and should have success tonight as well.
Milwaukee throws Brandon Woodruff against their NL Central foe with the hopes that he gets things turned around. After a solid opener against St. Louis, he has given up 4 runs in each of his last 2 outings. Woodruff has a very good K rate, but will need to hang in the game longer than usual to spare his relievers. Yesterday was a bullpen day for both clubs, and both of these young arms will need to stretch their outings. Slight edges go to St. Louis’ bats and relievers, though the latter should be discounted due to yesterday’s taxing game. I’ll fade Woodruff here and take the dog.
WAGER: Cardinals +108
Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
Here’s another one I want to tee up again. My profiles haven’t changed for these teams since yesterday’s breakdown but the starters have. Aaron Sanchez has been solid this year so far, only giving up 3 earned runs (plus another 3 unearned) and no home runs. He leads a “surging” Toronto offense that can take advantage of a sub-par Kyle Gibson with some small ball.
Minnesota’s starter has not made it through the 5th inning in his last couple starts, yielding 3 homers and 8 earned runs. Although the Blue Jays may not be the ideal team to fully capitalize off of this, I still think the Twins bullpen “owes” the league a few runs. Mejia gave up a 3-run bomb last night to blow the lead and I can see another failure from their relievers in some fashion tonight. Minnesota has the much better lineup but I’ll back Sanchez and fade the Twins’ pen for a good payout.
WAGER: Blue Jays +135
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
I’ll keep it brief on this one. Chicago throws fireballer Reynaldo Lopez on the mound against a weak Royals lineup. The thing to note is that Reynaldo loves to walk guys and give up bombs. Both offenses and bullpens for these clubs are subpar, but the clear edge goes to the Royals’ Jorge Lopez. Despite giving up 4 runs to the ChiSox in his opener, he’s settling down and has a nice .229 BABIP. Either pen is apt to blow this game like last night, but this is a strong fade against a horrendous Reynaldo Lopez.
