PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
8-1
SEASON RESULTS:
16-6
Week 3 Recap:
Having our best prop week we’ve had in two years felt really good not only because of the great return on the investment going 8-1, but because we’ve stay really locked in all season. If there is one lesson we may have learned (probably not), it’s to not get too aggressive and greedy. Our article plays were a perfect 8-0, before we added an official play on Twitter before the 1:00 Sunday kickoff with Zay Flowers. Despite 8 receptions he fell just short on his yardage. We’re not going to dwell on that loss though as the wins were a lot more exciting. The closest prop was the under on Jared Goff who was nearing it in the fourth quarter. However, a solid lead allowed them to keep the ball on the ground down the stretch securing the win. Just to recap we easily covered the Vikings double-down with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. We opted to play Bijan Robinson’s receiving prop rather than his rushing yardage, and that worked out beautifully. Travis Etienne, Jr. took advantage of a soft Texans run defense, and despite their bad loss to Houston, he had his best rushing day of the season covering easily. Same for Michael Pittman, Jr. who we mentioned was playable at over 4.5 catches at extra juice, or over 5.5 at plus money, finishing with 9 receptions. Jake Ferguson was targeted a lot as we expected in the Cowboy’s loss, and A.J. Brown was targeted on the first two plays of the Eagle’s Monday Night Football game en route to his first 100 yard game of the season and an easy cover. We’ve been doing this for a long time so we won’t get too hyped up as we want to just continue solid handicapping, but 8-1 is always going to feel really nice.
Week 4 Preview:
Just a baker’s half dozen of week four highlighted player props with a pair of Cincinnati Bengals on opposite ends of the production spectrum this on Sunday. We’re backing a veteran quarterback and wide receiver who have been mainstays on Prop Corner, and we’re adding a couple of new names to the list as well. And we’ll try to keep our streak alive with a player we strategically left off of the list, thankfully, a week ago. In case seven selections aren’t enough, or you want some more, we’ve got some unofficial leans at the bottom as well to consider. Let’s keep things hot!
Our Picks:
Matthew Stafford – Over 256.5 Yards Passing (-115)
We’ve been high in our praise of Rams head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Matthew Stafford so far this season, and it feels like they’re going to fall back into a bit of reality. Even if that happens, there’s still a good chance we’ll see some solid production from the veteran quarterback, who is playing behind a really bad pass blocking offensive line right now. The Rams weren’t great upfront to begin with, and now battling injuries things are even worse as Stafford was under heavy durress against the Bengals and looked shaky in the second half. The Colts defensive line has some power but their secondary is definitely vulnerable on the back end. Stafford has developed a nice rapport with both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell in the absence of Cooper Kupp, and both receivers should be able to find some room to roam in the passing routes. With a week to prepare, Sean McVay should be able to adapt to the pressure and find some ways to get the ball out quicker. Stafford’s first three games have produced yardage of 334, 307 and 269, even without great protection and Kupp. Against that Colts secondary, it just feels like the data says to take a shot at maintaining the over.
Ja’Marr Chase – Over 81.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t shy about his intentions of wanting the football more especially with the team losing their first two games. That resulted in a major effort from both the offensive scheme and quarterback Joe Burrow in getting him the ball against the Rams. Not surprisingly, once Chase started going, the offense and the team did as well as they secured their first win of the year. This is a classic case of if it’s not broken don’t fix it for the Cincinnati offense. Chase is facing a Titans defense that is tough against the run, but continues to have trouble getting after the quarterback and allowing receivers to rack up yards. There is a slight concern the Bengals may try to get Tee Higgins going in this game, as he’s struggled out of the gate, but even if Higgins feasts, that doesn’t mean Chase can’t also. Look for the yardage from the Bengals offense to come from Chase and Higgins against the Titans. Can Chase make it back to back games over the century mark? We’re betting on it.
Jerome Ford – Under 52.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
As great as the Browns offensive line truly is, you can’t deny the running attack is greatly diminished without Nick Chubb. Jerome Ford has stepped in well in relief, and notched a pair of touchdowns against a tough run defense a week ago, but wasn’t able to do much in terms of yardage. The breathing room should be a little better this weekend, but the Browns still face a physical defense that will make Ford earn every yard. With Kareem Hunt having an extra week to prepare, even though he’s nursing an injury, Ford’s playing time is likely to be decreased a bit. Pierre Strong, Jr. is also in the mix at the running back position and has seen some action since Chubb’s exit. Ford had a huge 69 yard run against the Steelers on primetime, but if you take that out, he’s averaging barely over 2.3 yards per carry. Between a potentially decreased workload, and his inability to gain the tough yards, we’re going to fade him Sunday against the rival Ravens.
Joe Mixon – Under 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Another running back who’s going to has a big task ahead of them Sunday is the Bengals Joe Mixon. You could argue Mixon has been the most consistent offensive player for Cincinnati during their slow start as he’s run hard even without a lot of space. We’re taking his yardage under prop this weekend not so much because of him, but more because of his opponent. The Titans have been downright nasty stopping the run through three games, and going back to last season. They’re allowing a paltry 2 and a half yards per carry, well below what a normal league average will end up being. When you combine that with a Bengals offensive line that hasn’t been quite as improved as they had hoped coming into the season, it could be tough sledding for Mixon. Until it ends up not working, we’re going with the fade the Titans running back opponent as a seemingly obvious prop.
Keenan Allen – Over 86.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The thoughts of Keenan Allen slowing down in his later years are going to have to be put on hold, at least for a little while. Allen has been torching the league and looks as quick and confident as ever during his fast start to the season. He has a nice matchup against a porous Raiders defense where he will look to keep his dominant play going. Not only does he have recent history on his side, there are some other nice factors that help increase his chances on Sunday. First, his partner Mike Williams is now out for the season, meaning Allen is the clear favorite target for Justin Herbert. We do expect good things from Joshua Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnston as well, but Allen is going to see a ton of targets. He’s had at least 9 targets in all three games this season, including that insane 20 target and 18 catch game from a weekend ago. If that isn’t enough, Raiders starting cornerback Nate Hobbs looks as though he’ll miss this contest, making an already shaky secondary even thinner. Oh, and the Raiders best defensive player Maxx Crosby, is also banged up heading into the contest. Allen probably won’t see 20 targets again in week four, but he should see several, and be productive enough to hit triple digits in yardage once again.
Dalton Kincaid – Over 26.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
We took a successful break from betting on Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid last week, but we’re jumping back on that horse again versus the Dolphins. As great as the offense has looked for Miami, their defense still can’t seem to put it all together behind new coordinator Vic Fangio. The total in this game is around 54 points, which means Vegas is expecting a potential shootout between Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen. We are too, and Kincaid will be one of the players who benefits on the stat sheet. In fact, Bills head coach Sean McDermott mentioned he hopes to continue to get Kincaid more and more involved in the offensive game plan as the season progresses. In a crucial home game in the AFC East, this could be Kincaid’s opportunity to announce to the NFL he’s here and a player to keep an eye on. Look for him to grab at least a few passes, including some calls designed specifically for him, and find his way over his yardage prop that’s in the mid 20’s.
Zack Moss – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Don’t look now, but the Indianapolis Colts are alive and contending in the AFC South and are small favorites in an inter-conference match against the Rams this weekend. It’s normal that all eyes would be on rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson on the offense, but after missing the opener, Zack Moss has actually been carrying things on that side of the ball. In the two games he’s started, he’s averaging over 100 yards rushing and over 4.6 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Rams are allowing over 4 and a half yards per carry and could have some trouble sustaining offense with their line situation currently looking messy. With a target of 67.5 yards, a player like Moss, who will garner a massive percentage of the snap share is definitely a player we’re going to ride as long as we can. A big game here and we could have some real discussions about Jonathan Taylor’s future again in the Colts backfield.
