PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-6

SEASON RESULTS:
41-43

Week 11 Recap:

What an absolute disaster of a Sunday with our week 11 player props, and a full-fledged apology to anyone who was tailing.  After a poor start to the first month of the season, we really felt like we had found our footing as we had creeped over the .500 mark with a strong month of October.  Two weeks ago we cooled off a bit, yet were still feeling good about the direction we were heading, and then Sunday happened.  What that ended up being, was missing our first six officially tracked prop bets en route to a 1-6 performance on the day.  Salvaging the last win, a Courtland Sutton over, was little solace in the massacre that happened with our other selections.  The picks were so bad it’s hard to even recap them, however as always, here’s a quick review.  The worst loss of the day was an inexplicable 23 yard performance for Saquon Barkley, at home against the Lions.  In a game where most of America felt he’d be a 100 yard runner, he was never a factor and missed his cover by worse than anything we’ve played all season.  We rolled the dice with a pair of Bears, and ultimately that proved to work out about as well as that sounds.  Justin Fields fell just shy of his total yardage mark, and despite a fast first quarter for Darnell Mooney, he was a non-factor in the second half of the game.  Brian Robinson, Jr. also fell just shy of his total, and while we knew it was a little dicey due to the timeshare with Antonio Gibson, it was the latter who got the majority of the work in their game with the Texans.  Josh Allen had his second least productive rushing game of the season, as he only scrambled three times during the contest, not coming close to his previous week’s totals.  Our other miss was more game script than anything, as the Cowboys blew out the Vikings from the start, making CeeDee Lamb a limited participant in the second half.  All-in-all, week eleven is a prop weekend we can’t move on from soon enough.

Week 12 Preview:

As we enter the final third of the NFL regular season one thing now becomes a pretty important factor when handicapping games each weekend. Mother nature. As we did our initial sweep of players, there were some appealing options on the board, including Jacoby Brissett as an example. However, heavy winds and rain/snow could have a legitimate impact on the passing game in Cleveland. Just one more thing to factor in when trying to piece together the puzzle of which players to play or fade over the weekend. We did take a couple of risks with the weather, but overall, we feel good about the eight wagers we settled one for week twelve. One thing is for certain, we need a big rebound after last weekend.

Our Picks:

Amari Cooper – Over 52.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Before you lock in this wager, make sure you check the weather in Cleveland, as some potential rain and wind could be in the forecast. We won’t know how this will impact until gametime, but it doesn’t appear to be anything that will be too detrimental so we’ve got this ticket punched. The Browns as always will be looking to get Nick Chubb rolling, but against the Buccaneers you have to be able to throw the football. The dropoff between a team’s number one wideout and number two might be greatest for the Browns, as Amari Cooper is clearly the top weapon in the passing game. He’s been a monster at home topping 76 yards receiving in four of the five games played at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Rachaad White – Over 62.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

As the Browns will be looking to move the ball through the air, the Buccaneers need to take advantage of a soft Cleveland run defense with a stable running attack. Rookie Rachaad White may have already taken over lead duties from Leonard Fournette after his recent performance, but Sunday he’ll officially be RB1 as Leonard Fournette will miss the contest. A hefty workload, combined with a Browns defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone running the ball, should lead to another productive day for White. If you need more ammunition to pull the trigger on White, keep in mind the weather won’t be too ideal for throwing the football. Don’t be shocked if White gets 20+ carries in the game, and that should allow him to cruise past his total.

Antonio Gibson – Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)

As much as the Commanders have tried to make Brian Robinson, Jr. their featured running back, he’s simply been outproduced by Antonio Gibson through the first eleven weeks of the season. Gibson has been more efficient as a runner, and more importantly for this prop bet, more efficient as a pass catcher. With their normal receiving back J.D. McKissic recently put onto to IR, Gibson has assumed those duties as a more than capable pass receiver out of the backfield. Expect to see Gibson and Robinson split the snaps against what has been a decent rush defense from the Falcons. Atlanta has struggled against the pass, and that includes against opposing running backs. Gibson has snagged at least three catches in his last 8 games with the exception of one contest, where he finished with two. This number seems as though it should be set at 3.5, so with it resting at 2.5 with normal juice, we’re buyers on the over.

Taylor Heinicke – Over 213.5 Yards Passing (-115)

We’re going a little against the grain by playing Taylor Heinicke against the Falcons with his passing total set at 213.5 yards. That seems like a low number, until you recognize that after hitting that in his first two starts in relief of Carson Wentz, that he hasn’t gotten over that in the previous three games. So why would we be playing a number that he’s failed to reach in recent history? This is about his matchup against the Falcons secondary, and the fact he may have his top targets all available and healthy for really the first time this season. His top four wide receivers and tight end Logan Thomas will join the running backs and somewhere along the way there should be some explosive plays. Let’s see if the old “he’s due” can outweigh the analytics with this selection.

DeAndre Hopkins – Over 82.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Since returning from his suspension, DeAndre Hopkins has been as productive as any receiver in the league not named Justin Jefferson. Kyler Murray is returning from injury to start in their matchup against the Chargers, and that means more good news for Hopkins as a receiver. Murray has absolutely pelted Hopkins with targets since his return, and he’ll take aim at a Chargers secondary that has had some challenges against top receivers. On the Cardinals end, Hopkins has to get a lot of targets by default, as the team will be without receivers Rondale Moore, Greg Dortch and tight end Zach Ertz in this ballgame. Hollywood Brown may be active, but the team has already stated he’ll be on a short pitch count. That means a whole lot of Hopkins when it’s time for Murray to throw. Simply by volume, we’re expecting a 100 yard game for Hopkins in this one.

Randall Cobb – Over 30.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Watching Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers look frustrated and even lost at times has been a really weird sight to behold. It feels like the only time he’s truly confident is when he’s throwing to his longtime teammate, Randall Cobb. The veteran receiver has battled injuries this season, but been pretty effective working out of the slot when he has been on the field. With the exception of getting skunked with one catch and seven yards against the Jets, he’s broken the 30.5 yard mark in his other previous six contests, and quite comfortably at that. In their matchup against the Eagles, Philadelphia is likely to keep their top corners Darius Slay, Jr. and James Bradberry on the outside to lock down Allen Lazard and Christian Watson. That should leave some room for Cobb in the middle of the field, where the Eagles are much thinner in their secondary. Game script could also come into play here as it’s possible the Eagles will be winning, and forcing the Packers to throw more than they might like to. Add it all up, and Cobb is one of our favorite plays of the weekend.

Courtland Sutton – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)

If you caught our article last week, you’ll notice we’re doubling down on our one winner as we’re going back to Courtland Sutton with the same catch total of 4.5 receptions this week. In all honestly, we could probably just copy/paste what we had a week ago for our reasoning as to why. This matchup isn’t necessarily great for Sutton, as he’ll likely see talented young cornerback Jaycee Horn quite a bit. The reason we like it is similar to DeAndre Hopkins above, it’s basically a volume play. The Broncos are steal dealing with injuries at the wide receiver position, and their better pass catching running back is no longer on the team. That means that Sutton should see a lot of targets in this game. This is also a game that doesn’t show any real potential weather impact, so the passing games should be just fine. Or at least as fine as the Broncos and Panthers passing games can be? It may not be pretty, and it wasn’t a week ago, but Sutton should be able to get it done again.

Michael Pittman, Jr. – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)

With Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, Michael Pittman, Jr. became a basically worthless player in fantasy football circuits. The re-insertion of Matt Ryan at the QB position has breathed some life back into Pittman, who faces the Steelers on Monday night. The production for Pittman may not hit the lofty expectations many had after his week one explosion, but you can’t deny that he’s averaged 8 targets during the course of the season. With that, he’s grabbed at least 6 passes in 5 of his last 6 games, one of which was with the previously mentioned Ehlinger at quarterback. The Steelers are overall pretty weak at the cornerback position, so there shouldn’t be much opposition to Pittman finding some space to get open. With the return of T.J. Watt bolstering the Steelers pass rush, you can figure Ryan will want to get the ball out early on short to intermediate routes. That’s the area of the field where Pittman does his damage so he should lead the team in targets in this game. Playing in a dome, we again have nothing to worry about in terms of the elements interfering with the passing game. The stats and the matchup tell us that this is a spot to play Pittman.

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