PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-2

SEASON RESULTS:
27-25

Week 8 Recap:

Nothing to write home about in week number 8 with our NFL prop bets, yet it did generate a few bucks as we finished to the good with a 3-2 mark. We were pretty well dialed in on 4 of the 5 picks as there was only one that we’d look back and second guess or be critical of.

We loved both of our quarterback under yardage plays and neither Joe Flacco nor Kyle Allen came within striking distance against tough defenses on the road. The breakdown of the David Montgomery over yardage played out perfectly as the Bears made it a priority to feature him against the soft Charger defense and he had the best day of his career covering his total in the 2nd quarter of the game. Our first loss was on the Saquon Barkley over rushing yardage total as he finished 12 yards shy despite having nearly 200 total yards on the day rushing and receiving. We actually mentioned that the one thing that could keep him from going over was if he was heavily productive in the passing game which ended up happening to our dismay. Our big miss for the weekend was taking T.Y. Hilton’s over 4.5 reception total as he ended up with just two catches. It was a pretty poor bet as he would be matched up with Chris Harris, Jr. and we paid the price for taking a chance with that one. All in all it was a really bad pick.

Week 9 Preview:

There are a lot of games that figure to be very close this weekend at least by looking at the spreads. Does that mean anything different in terms of finding quality player props? Hard to know for certain, however it’s likely that the game scripts could be four quarters long which would lend itself to some overs. Additionally, stars often shine in close games and important contests. We settled on 8 solid plays, 6 overs and 2 unders that we like to give us a profitable prop bet weekend.

Our Picks:

Nick Chubb – Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

One of the more underappreciated running backs in the league, Nick Chubb has been on an absolute roll over the last five weeks. While the Browns may have some turmoil and be a disappointment overall, they can count on Chubb to play hard every week. Chubb was upset with himself for losing two fumbles against New England and will be eager to redeem himself this weekend as the Browns travel to Denver. The Broncos have not been good stopping the run and in a game where the Browns should be running often Chubb should have no shortage of opportunities to gain yardage.

Chris Carson – Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Another undervalued running back this season has been Chris Carson who has been as steady as any back in the league thus far in the season. Unfortunately this particular game is not one where it looks like Carson would enjoy a lot of success. For starters Tampa Bay has been downright nasty with their run defense which makes it an uphill battle to start if you’re running against them. For Carson, add in the fact that over the past two games Rashaad Penny has looked good and poached a few carries and this yardage total seems just a tick too high. There could be a lot of points scored and a lot of action through the air so the overall game script may not favor Carson either.

Chris Godwin – Over 6 Receptions (-115)

Perhaps the trendiest pick for breakout fantasy player this year was Tampa’s Chris Godwin and he certainly hasn’t disappointed. Bruce Arians has been a master during his career at using shifty slot receivers and putting them in position to be featured in his offenses. Godwin has been one of the top receivers in the league and has a matchup against a Seattle Seahawks team that has been beaten through the air quite a bit this season and by lesser talent than Godwin. The most interesting factor in looking at Godwin is The Bucs’ have been a back and forth featured receiver team between he and his running mate Mike Evans. Evans is coming off of a monster game and if the trends continue Godwin would be the workhorse this week. Six is certainly nothing to scoff at in terms of receptions in a game, but something just feels like Godwin is going to beat that number by at least a couple of grabs.

Jordan Howard – Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

A lot of people subscribe to the theory that revenge games aren’t really a thing, but we’ll go on record and say that we don’t believe that to be the case. While Jordan Howard has brushed off any talk of Sunday’s game against his former team meaning anything more than a normal game, we’re not buying it. Howard will be motivated and running as hard as he has all season, coming off of some really solid performances over the last few games. Casual fans may be thinking this is a really tough matchup against the Bears defense, however they have not been overly stout against the run. The loss of Akiem Hicks on the Chicago defensive line has hurt their ability to be physical and the Eagles offensive line will look to exploit them and slow down the pass rush of Khalil Mack and company. If ever there is a game this season that Howard should shine, this would seem to be it.

Mark Walton – Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Taking any Miami Dolphin player is going to present a little bit of a risk and that’s why they call it gambling. For week nine we’re making a strategic play with the Dolphins new workhorse running back Mark Walton who got his first start last week against the Steelers with the departure of Kenyan Drake. Walton looked good against a solid Pittsburgh defense and he gets a home game against a not so great Jets defense missing their centerpiece C.J. Mosley at linebacker and fresh off of trading cornerstone Leonard Williams on the defensive line. Walton is a little bit of an unknown commodity in the league and if you aren’t familiar with him it’s good to let you know that he is one of the more talented players at the position that you’ll find. It’s been his previous off the field issues that have kept him from being a more noticeable player. Assuming the Dolphins can keep things relatively close against the Jets, Walton should get plenty of opportunities to carry the ball and with a total of just over 40 yards this is a play that should be a quiet win.

Leveon Bell – Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

For as inept as the Jets have been as a team in 2019 LeVeon Bell has been a consistent and pleasant surprise as he’s played about as well as he can under the circumstances. The Jets and specifically LeVeon Bell have an enticing game against the Dolphins and their swiss cheese running defense. The Dolphins are giving up over 160 yard rushing per game and have been unable to stop anyone as with the loss of Xavien Howard to IR their defense really only three or four players that should be starting on an NFL team. There is realistically only one thing that should prohibit Bell from a 100 yard rushing day and that is himself in the passing game. If you wanted to seek out the Bell Rushing and Receiving prop that’s a really nice play as well. We’re going to look for him to have a deserved 100 yard running game against a team that can’t tackle anyone.

Lamar Jackson – Under 194.5 Passing Yards (-115)

A good Sunday Night Football contest has the New England Patriots as just a 3 point favorite taking on the exciting Baltimore Ravens and their second year quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Patriots defense has been ridiculously good and they’ll face their biggest test of the season as they are tasked with figuring out how to slow down Jackson and the Ravens offense. There’s no question that Bill Belichek is going to force someone other than Jackson to beat him so it will be interesting to see who steps up for Baltimore. The question here is can Lamar Jackson do what’s needed to be a passer and beat the veteran and talented Patriot secondary? 195 passing yards is a really low number and Jackson has blown by that this season, but the key to point out is the Patriots are only allowing 165 yards passing per game on average, and that’s against teams that are in throwing situations often. If the Patriots don’t get beat over the top for a huge touchdown play, they should be able to hold Jackson under that mark.

Julian Edelman – Over 6 Receptions (-115)

A second play in the Sunday night game looks at Patriots slot receiving phenom Julian Edelman. We missed an Edelman over by the hook a few weeks ago but we’re going to give it another try as his current prop sits at six catches. The Patriots have a pretty full compliment of weapons at receiver but we know where Tom Brady likes to look in big situations. Baltimore has been decent defending the slot so it’s certainly not a gimme to think Edelman will be running open, but six seems like very do-able number for a push at a minimum and hopefully we can get to seven.