PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
7-1

SEASON RESULTS:
21-20

Week 6 Recap:

What a fun week of prop bets for us as we covered at a 7-1 clip and probably would have been 8-0 if not for some surprisingly low volume from running back Mark Ingram who was our only loss. It’s always fun when you’re hitting overs early to take the pressure off, and when the unders are nowhere near getting to their totals which is exactly what we had happen. To say it was much needed would be an understatement as we’re back above the .500 mark and feeling a lot more respectable than we had been feeling from the prior two weeks.

The morning started out great as we had Mike Evans over 4.5 catches and he had that handled prior to halftime in their contest in London. Other than the Ingram loss, which was really due to the fact the trio of Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill had more carries than he did. Teddy Bridgewater didn’t run the ball which we figured would be the case so no threat there. Our two Cowboy plays were a yawn as Amari Cooper’s under was locked after he left with a quad injury in the first quarter guaranteeing that would be safe and Ezekiell Elliott was featured as was stated. Julio Jones did what he does getting yardage and Cooper Kupp was stymied by the Niners as was the rest of his mates for good measure. We sealed the deal with the Melvin Gordon rushing under as he split time again with his partner Austin Ekeler for starters, and the running game was taken out of the equation as the Chargers got behind big again early. Sometimes when it rains it pours and when the sun is shining, it is really shining.

Week 7 Preview:

It can be pretty tempting to load up after a really good week with props, but we absolutely did our due diligence in breaking down specific matchups and factors like homefield advantages, etc. We landed with six different bets with some overs, some unders, and two that run pretty parallel in the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions game.

Our Picks:

Case Keenum – Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-115)

This is actually a little worrisome for the simple fact that it almost seems too obvious and easy despite the low passing total of 219.5 to take the under on Case Keenum on Sunday. The Redskins haven’t been able to get much of a passing game going outside of the brightness of rookie Terry McLaurin and this contest against San Francisco doesn’t seem like a likely place where that will change for the better. Interim head coach Bill Callahan is a run first guy who will try to shorten the game and you can expect a lot of 3 and outs for the Skins’. Another thing working against Keenum here is they will be without their pass catching running back Chris Thompson so the screen game and yards from the backs will likely be cut back as well. Even though the game script could dictate a lot of pass attempts in the second half, it’s going to be a struggle for Keenum to produce in this game.

Cooper Kupp – Over 6.5 Receptions (-105)

We bet against Cooper Kupp last week and cruised to an easy prop win, but in week seven we’re banking on a rebound for him and the entire Rams offense. To say that the Falcons defense has been atrocious would be a grave understatement as they have not been able to stop anyone running or throwing the ball to this point. It’s likely that Sean McVay will look to pound the running game here, however that shouldn’t impact the Goff to Cupp connection enough to keep him under 7 catches. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense should do enough to keep this potentially high scoring game close so the Rams will need to keep throwing. Cupp has been the most targeted receiver in the league so far in 2019 and he should get plenty of targets against a soft defense here.

Kirk Cousins – Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-115)

After being the first quarter of the season’s NFL punchline, Kirk Cousins has actually played some really good football the last three weeks. Don’t let that scare you from taking his yardage under against Detroit in a tough divisional road game this weekend. The Lions have not played great defensively against the pass or the run, however when you look at the opponents and injuries they’ve had it explains a but of the statistical story. The real key to this play is the home/road discrepancy of Cousins himself who seems to do great playing at home, while struggling on the road. Look for Dalvin Cook to be the featured player in this one (more on him below), and don’t expect a repeat performance like the Vikings got out of Stefon Diggs a week ago. A lot of running and not a lot of big plays should keep Cousins under his total here.

Dalvin Cook – Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

If it weren’t for the remarkable season that Christian McCaffrey is having, we’d probably be talking about Dalvin Cook as the top running back in the league nearing the midway point of the season. Cook is a throwback to the old days as a workhorse back who can run between the tackles and still has the speed to make big plays when the opportunities are there. This week he’s taking on a Lions defense that is giving up over 5 yards per carry and is ranked 27th in the league in yards allowed. In a black and blue divisional game, head coach Mike Zimmer will have his game plan solidly featuring Cook and he should easily top 20 carries which should put him over his yardage total.

Carlos Hyde – Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We’re one and one playing Carlos Hyde props this season so hopefully the rubber match will put us into winning territory. Hyde had a monster game last week and overall has been a great signing for the Texans when they lost Lamar Miller in the preseason. A divisional road battle in Indianapolis is next up in what should be a good game and an important one in the AFC South. Hyde has been a little up and down this year and we’re banking on that trend continuing this weekend. While the Colts defense has not been as good as it was last season with the injury to Darius Leonard no doubt contributing, they have overall played tough and kept games close. It’s possible that Hyde could get a decent workload, however that doesn’t guarantee him production from a yardage standpoint as we’ve seen in a few games this season. A fired up Colts defense should be able to keep Hyde around 50 yards for the day.

Jerry Hughes – Over .5 Sacks (-105)

Playing sack prop totals is not something we’d recommend making a living out of for the long haul, but there are absolutely times when these can be sneaky good bets. Take for example a dominant Buffalo Bills defense at home going up against a historically bad Miami Dolphins offense with a battered and overmatched O-line. The Dolphins basically decided they were fine with getting their quarterbacks killed when they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil away in the fire sale to stockpile draft picks. The results have been exactly what you’d expect as Dolphin quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen have been regularly running for their lives. Throughout his career Jerry Hughes has had more success against the Dolphins than any other team in the league. He’ll be lined up in his usual spot over the left tackle Jesse Davis in a matchup he will win consistently. Hughes is one of the more emotional players in the league and feeds off of the energy of the Bills Mafia when playing at home. This is absolutely a game where the Bills should pile up a minimum of three sacks and Hughes should be able to get into the action for one.