PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-4

SEASON RESULTS:
14-19

Week 5 Recap:

We’re off to a painfully slow star with our prop bets this year and fell behind going a paltry 1-4 last week. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades so we’re not taking any solace in the fact that we had a shot at all five bets but came up short on four of them. The day started out rough as our Ezekiel Elliott over pretty much went out the window as Green Bay built up an early lead that results in Zeke only getting 12 carries for the entire game. He averaged 6 yards per carry on those so if he had just a few more carries probably would have hit his total, but like we said, moving on. Between Patrick Mahomes, Alshon Jeffery and Larry Fitzgerald we missed their overs by a total of 19 yards. Gardner Minshew kept us from the goose egg as he had some late tuck and runs as we expected to get us on the board. Speaking of the board, back to it, ready to rebound.

Week 6 Preview:

There are some pretty high and pretty low point totals in week six meaning there are opportunities for under and over player props. When you get to this point in the season you have to also take into account injuries and workload in addition of course to matchups on the field. We’ve got an optimistic eight plays this week including two in the Cowboys/Jets game and in a reversal from last week have more four unders and four overs.

Our Picks:

Mike Evans – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)

In the past couple of years we’d be drooling over the prop numbers for Mike Evans at a 4.5 reception clip. The emergence of Chris Godwin has made Evans more of an after thought, with the exception of that monster three touchdown game he had in week three. Jameis Winston and Bruce Arians both made comments this week regarding the importance of making Evans more of a focal point in the offense. Evans should have plenty of opportunities in his first game over in England to bring in five passes against a team he has had big performances against in the past.

Teddy Bridgewater – Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

It’s easy to remember Teddy Bridgewater in his early NFL career taking off with the ball under his arm and running for first downs. His gruesome knee injury completely changed the way he approaches the game now as he is firmly a pocket passer and not as mobile as he once was. There is always a little risk with such a low total as one broken play could crush this under but this is strictly a statistical play, which is generally the best way to win over the long haul in the NFL betting world. Bridgewater has eclipsed 10 yards rushing only once in his four games since taking over as the starting QB. The Jaguars conversely have played a lot of zone coverage this season and have only allowed Marcus Mariota to gain yards on the ground from the QB position. And don’t forget they played Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson, two guys who are capable of taking off and running. The numbers tell us under so we’re going with it.

Julio Jones – Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

Over the past few years Julio Jones has been one of our most consistent and profitable prop plays, specifically when played at home with Matt Ryan. We haven’t gone to the well with him this year and that’s a good thing as he hasn’t been dominant on a regular basis. In fact he’s coming off of a dud where despite heavy passing he only tallied 3 receptions and 42 yards against the Texans and ultimately missed some snaps with an aggravated hip injury. That poor performance is the main reason we are giving him a look on Sunday as his receiving total is under 90 for the first time in a while, at least in a favorable matchup like he has against a poor Cardinals defense. The Falcons are desperate to get a win and this seems like one of those 8 for 120 type games for Jones.

Mark Ingram – Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Speaking of going to the well, we have played Mark Ingram’s over props twice this season and won them both and we’re going to keep riding him until the wheels fall off. The crazy thing is, his totals have not substantially increased despite repeatedly beating them, and in this case he has a very favorable matchup against a Bengals team that has struggled to stop the run. Let’s not forget that the Ravens could get up fairly big in this game which would lead to a lot of totes on the ground for Ingram. Whether this one ends up hitting or not, we’ll have zero regrets about taking Ingram against this Cincinnati defense at home.

Amari Cooper – Under 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The first of our two Cowboy prop plays is the under receiving total of Amari Cooper which is set at 80.5. Cooper is having a good season and certainly has the ability to crush this total against a winless New York Jets team, the question is will he? Coming off a monster game where the Cowboys where in comeback throw it mode he topped 200 yards on 11 catches. However, when you dig into the numbers, we’re going to play the odds that he won’t get there on Sunday. Cooper has averaged only 46 yards per game in the Cowboys two road games compared with 137 in his home contests. Additionally the Jets should have a spark overall on both sides of the ball as their quarterback Sam Darnold is returning to action.

Ezekiel Elliott – Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We may have lost our Ezekiel Elliott prop in week five but we were definitely on the right side of that bet. Had Elliott gotten more than a dozen carries he would have cruised past his yardage total. The Cowboys recent losing streak coincides with a three game decline in Zeke’s carries, something that Jerry Jones called out this week, along with his desire to see his freshly paid RB see the ball more. The absence of C.J. Mosley in the middle of the Jets defense has softened up what had appeared to be a solid group against the run. It would be pretty shocking if Elliott did not see the ball a ton early in this game based on the chatter in Dallas, and he should find some success. This game could be closer than some people believe, but if it’s not then that would only lead to even more touches for Zeke. Fool us once Dallas Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliott, shame on us. Fool us twice… You better not.

Cooper Kupp – Under 90.5 Receiving Yards

Taking the under on Cooper Kupp’s yardage total is difficult for a couple of reasons. First, he’s a really likable guy and it’s great to see him return from his knee injury to rebound into a great player. Second, he’s been absolutely killing it so far this year for the Rams and has gone from the number three wideout to really being their number one weapon offensively. Jared Goff has put up much better numbers at home than on the road going back to last year so why would we want to take the under on Cupp in this situation? It’s all about the matchup and the opponent. The San Francisco 49ers have been stingy against opposing receivers overall, but more specifically against slot receivers. They’re ranked number one against defending receivers in the slot position where Kupp runs almost all of his routes from. 90.5 is a big total even for a guy that’s been producing every week like Cooper Kupp. If he’s going to go over in this game he’s absolutely going to have to earn it and we’ll tip our cap to him if he does.

Melvin Gordon – Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

There is no question the Los Angeles Chargers are happy to welcome back Melvin Gordon after his holdout and get him some game action last week. Sunday night he’ll be facing a Pittsburgh Steelers team in primetime and looking to show the NFL world he’s back as the man in this LA offense. The problem for Gordon is during his absence Austin Ekeler played so well that they Chargers almost have to go running back by committee by default. A total of 60.5 is certainly nothing for a talented runner like Gordon, but will he get enough carries to be able to cross that mark? With it being his second game back it’s likely he’ll still be working into things so we’re going to assume that he won’t get enough volume to crack that total. It’s also worth noting that the Steelers are only allowing 3.9 yards per carry so it’s not necessarily easy to push them around, and the Chargers are without their Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey who was lost for the year last week to injury. It’s likely that as the season goes on Gordon will see more work and his numbers will climb, he’s just not quite there yet.