PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-2

SEASON RESULTS:
13-15

Week 4 Recap:

After our worst prop weekend we have had in years we rebounded nicely in week four going a solid 5-2 with most analysis being pretty on the mark. We had some relatively easy covers with underrated players like Mark Ingram and Sterling Shepard. And found some nice situational covers with Dede Westbrook against Denver and Kyler Murray using his athleticism. We’ll admit it was a looking a little bleak with our Derek Carr under play, but the Raiders really took their foot off the gas and had a ineffective second half offensively which was enough to keep the total under for the cover. Of our two losses, one wasn’t close at all as Jameis Winston was on fire in a barn-burner against the Rams crushing his yardage total we went under on. The other was Patrick Mahomes touchdowns over 2.5 which we mentioned would happen as long as they Chiefs didn’t end up with a bunch of one yard touchdown runs. Go figure, the Chiefs ended up with a bunch of one yard touchdown runs. We’ll never whine too much about a 5-2 weekend, particularly after the week we had in week three, so let’s take those covers and celebrate mildly.

Week 5 Preview:

A lot of intriguing matchups in week five and it appears that the sportsbooks have done a little bit of adjusting with certain players and props as you’d expect. There still looks like a fair amount of really nice value plays if you dig hard enough. There are a lot of appealing plays this week so narrowing it down was a little tricky. Anytime you like a lot of props, it’s critical that whatever you end up going with are the correct choices. With these wagers we won’t know for sure until the end of the Sunday night game, but this combination should lead to a profitably Sunday.

Our Picks:

Ezekiel Elliott – Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Cowboys where smacked with a hard dose of reality as they struggled while finally playing a tough opponent on the road. Ezekiel Elliott was largely a non-factor averaging 1.9 yards per rush as Dallas was never able to get things going. The Boys’ travel home to the comfort of Jerry World where they have been markedly better than on the road. Even without left tackle Tyron Smith, Ezekiel Elliott will be featured heavily and should find lots of room against a very weak Green Bay defense against the run, despite what the media and the Cheesheads will tell you. If there is ever a game that is lining up for Zeke to crack the century mark, this is hit.

Alshon Jeffery – Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

It can be a little risky playing an over with a player who is coming off of an injury but fear not as there is a lot of value in this pick. The Eagles return home after getting their offense going a week ago to face a Jets team whose offense will likely not be on a field a ton behind their third string QB Luke Falk. DeSean Jackson is still on the shelf dealing with his injury and with Jets LB C.J. Mosley out in the middle their strength at safety will be focused on Eagle’s tight end Zach Ertz. That means that Carson Wentz could be calling #17’s number several times during this game against some corners that could be on an island against him. This total is pretty low even for a receiver that isn’t necessarily the most consistent at the position. Jeffery should eclipse the mark on Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 325.5 Yards Passing

Ironically, during a strong week four of prop bets, one of our losses was on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. We have zero concern with going back to him for the nightcap on Sunday against the Colts from Arrowhead. You can pretty much already hear Cris Collinsworth saying “what Mahomes did there was absolutely unbelievable” as the young QB will put his talent on display to the football world in a game where the Chiefs are heavy favorites. It’s pretty crazy that you can look at a quarterback yardage total that high and just assume Mahomes will go over it, however that’s just the level that he’s playing at right now. Throw in the fact he’s returning home and the Colts are missing two of their top players up the middle on defense in Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker and it should be another game of long passes and big plays for Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Gardner Minshew – Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We hit a winner with Jacksonville Jaguar receiver Dede Westbrook in week four and this week we’re turning to his quarterback to find another Jags winner. Although in this particular case we don’t need or even want QB Gardner Minshew to throw the ball at all. For this prop we’re taking Minshew’s rushing total and hoping that the young signal-caller has some tuck and runs in him. Minshew only ran for 8 yards a week ago so on paper this looks like a losing proposition. You need to rewind to the two previous games before that were Minshew was running regularly and easily using his athleticism to move the chains. The Panthers have given up over this total on average to opposing quarterbacks on the ground and have been strong throughout the air in pass coverage. On the road needing to move the chains, Minshew should take off when needed and hit the total.

Larry Fitzgerald – Over 67.5 Yards (-115)

This would be a really appealing bet against a Bengals defense that is really struggling in normal situations, but with fellow wideout Christian Kirk sitting this one out it seems almost too good to be true. While Fitz’ hasn’t hit that yardage mark the past two weeks this is a game where he will clearly be the featured man in the passing game. There is the possibility that this game turns into a little bit of a shootout which would only help the cause here. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him crack the century mark in this game so that gives us 30+ plus yards of cushion to hit the over here.