PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-3

SEASON RESULTS:
32-28

Week 9 Recap:

A pretty heavy slate of prop bets in week 9 which is always a high risk and high reward proposition, particularly when we played a little bit outside of the box. What we ended up with was a solid 5-3 mark which helps us stay profitable on the season and gives us a nice building block for the second stanza of the NFL campaign.

We were even going into the Sunday night game and had two plays which carried us to the 5-3 mark. Lamar Jackson was electric and played a great game as did the Ravens entire team as they thoroughly dominated yet he wasn’t able to surpass his yardage total as we expected. Julian Edelman was of course Brady’s go to guy in a big game as he was under heavy pressure for most of the contest going over his reception total. Our biggest miss was taking the under with Chris Carson’s yardage total against Tampa Bay as he had a really nice game again and blew by it. He only had 13 carries so we were on the mark with the game script, the problem was he maximized those 13 carries to go over the century mark. Our “wild-card” play was taking a flyer on Mark Walton (who’s now suspended) to go over a very low yardage total of 40.5 yards. Walton was featured in the game and he did have a chance, however his paltry 2.9 yard average per carry left him a little bit short. It seemed like a sneaky good play, unfortunately it turned out to be a loser. All in all, a solid day and we’re excited to see what this week has in store.

Week 10 Preview:

Our Picks:

Chris Godwin – Over 5.5 Catches (-140)

The juice is higher than what we typically play on this wager, so if you like to draw a line in the sand on how much you’re willing to risk to win we’ll understand if you want to pass. That being said, barring an injury, this is about as sure of a bet as you can make in week ten. We rolled with Chris Godwin last week and he came through and there should be no sign of a letdown this week. The Cardinals/Bucs is predicted to be the highest scoring game of the week and Godwin should play a big part in it. While Mike Evans will likely draw Patrick Peterson in coverage, Godwin will run most of his routes from the slot, where the Cardinals have been very generous in allowing catches this season. Godwin should not only top the 5.5 catches, he’ll likely blow right past it en route to a huge day.

Tyler Boyd – Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Tyler Boyd started the season on fire and was poised for a monster year, however the Bengals struggles have slowed him down to a crawl over the last few weeks. Week ten brings a contest where he’ll be matched up with Marlon Humphrey, who is playing the best football of his young career. Boyd has struggled mightily against the Ravens in his last two games and with a rookie quarterback making his first start it’s reasonable to assume those struggles will continue. It’s possible due to being down in the game that Boyd could get some garbage yards late so be aware of that, but the numbers say you should temper expectations of what Boyd will be able to do on Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 294.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The only thing we can figure when looking at this passing yardage number is that the sportsbooks might think that Patrick Mahomes may be a little rusty and has a tough matchup on the road against the Titans. It’s possible that it may take him just a bit to get going and the Titans have defended opposing passers pretty well, but this number is flat out too low. Regardless of the competition, we’ll take Mahomes over probably every single time it sits below 300 yards. For the first time since week one, Mahomes has basically all of his weaponry at his disposal and by spreading the ball around he should cruise to a 300 yard day.

Allen Robinson – Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

It’s about as scary as it gets taking any kind of over involving the Chicago Bears offense, unless you’re talking about punts. That is until they have a home game against a Detroit Lions team that has been about as poor as any team in the league stopping opponents. The weather looks like it will hold out just long enough to make the conditions fine for throwing the football, something that Mitch Trubisky desperately needs to do well on Sunday. Allen Robinson has been a ghost in recent weeks as Trubisky has struggled to read coverages and make accurate throws. While there’s no guarantee that Trubisky and company will light it up, they should at the very least be improved based upon the defense they’ll face this weekend. Robinson should be the beneficiary of this and we’ll take a shot at him cracking a relatively low yardage total of 63.5.

Julio Jones – Over 6 Receptions (-125)

This wager was actually a little trickier than it seems and it’s very possible to “out-think” yourself when you look at it. In years past, you’d take Julio Jones over 6.5 receptions basically any chance you’d have. That was even more amplified against what was a weak New Orleans defense, which generally resulted in Jones hauling in a lot of passes for a lot of yards. This year’s version of the Saints is a lot tougher to throw and run on making 6.5 a suddenly uphill number for a receiver to reach. NO has won the time of possession battle for the most part this year limiting the amount of possessions and opportunities that opposing offenses has. This is what we mean about not overthinking things with the catch total. The Falcons will likely be trailing in this game and Matt Ryan will have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball down the field. Even if the Falcons are dominated and Ryan and Jones have a less than fantastic day, it’s very likely that Julio can snag seven passes along the way. Taking overs with good players is rarely a bad decision so we’ll bet this one with confidence and see what happens.