One the most exciting and potentially profitable wagers the BetCrushers love playing are proposition bets during the NFL season. By studying matchups and historical player and team performances it’s possible to gain a slight edge against the sportsbook in determining different props and their likelihood to win. Prop bets are often released shortly before the kickoff of games so it’s important to evaluate and move quickly in making your picks. As is the case with point spreads, the bets can vary substantially between different sportsbooks, so shop around and find the best value for your bets.
NOTE – All numbers/odds are via mybookie.ag on the Saturday prior.
PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
None
SEASON RESULTS:
None
Week 1 Prop Bet Overview:
The opening week of the NFL season can often prove difficult in finding value with team matchups, particularly against the spread. How will eleven players on offense and defense come together to perform without a lot of work together in the preseason or possibly even in previous years. With information of players so readily available we’re actually going pretty heavy with some prop bets on opening Sunday.
Our Picks:
Dalvin Cook – Over 71.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Minnesota Vikings could find themselves in a shoot-out with the Atlanta Falcons, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t plenty of opportunity for RB Dalvin Cook to have a big day. When healthy, Cook has proven he can carry a hefty load as the Vikings are one of the few teams left in the league that rely on a primary back as opposed to a true committee. Atlanta was horrible against the run last season and while their defense should be improved after getting back some key starters, look for Cook to be featured early and often.
Derrick Henry – Under 78.5 rushing yards (-115)
Was there a player in the league in 2018 who started so slowly and accelerated so quickly in the second half of the season more so than Derrick Henry? Henry was a steamroller in the final 7 games of the season amassing yardage and stiff-arming his way through opposing defenses. He’ll look to do that in Cleveland, a team that looks to have an aggressive pass rush, but some question marks against stopping the run. With that in mind, you may think Henry would be a strong play to go over a relatively low yardage total. We’re going the opposite direction. The Titans are missing a key piece on their offensive line in Taylor Lewan and it’s very possible the Browns could have an early lead in this one which could force Henry’s backup Dion Lewis into more action. Unless the Titans get up big early, don’t be shocked if Henry has a subpar first game.
Carson Wentz – Over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
Normally a divisional game early in the season figures to be a tough battle but the oddsmakers certainly don’t think so as the Eagles are expected to dominate this game. Washington will play tough on defense, however they are simply outclassed in this game. Carson Wentz by all accounts has been sharp over the summer and is ready to re-establish himself in the upper echelon of quarterbacks. With weapons on the outside, a top tight end in Zach Ertz and a dynamic screen game he could really light things up against the Redskins. Look for Wentz to hit the 300 yard plateau in this one. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he doesn’t unless they’re up so big early that they take the air out of the ball in the second half. Philly figures to hit the 30 point mark so we feel confident giving Wentz a play here.
Tyler Boyd – Over 5 receptions (-115)
You’ve got to feel for the Bengals as after losing their first round draft pick Jonah Williams over the summer they followed it up by losing one the franchises all-time greats A.J. Green on day one of practice. To add insult to injury they have to travel to what most people believe is the toughest place to play and win as their week 1 matchup takes them to the Pacific Northwest to tangle with Seattle. Those Bengals mishaps do provide a clear beneficiary on the offense and that’s in WR Tyler Boyd. Boyd has proved during Green’s absences that he can actually perform much like a number one wideout in the league. There’s a really good chance the Bengals are playing catch up in the game on top of that. Put the two together and you’ve got Boyd waiting with open arms for what figures to be a lot of targets in this one.
Kyler Murray – Over 31.5 rushing yards (-115)
It’s hard to fathom that there would be much interest in a Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals game until you remember that super-athlete Kyler Murray is making his professional debut at quarterback. Murray has looked shaky in limited work and there are a lot of questions surrounding new head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme. It wouldn’t be shocking if Murray struggles in his debut even if the matchup on paper isn’t overly daunting. One thing we’ve seen in the past is athletic rookie quarterbacks are understandably quick to tuck the ball and run. Add that to the fact that Murray will want to dazzle with some highlights for the home crowd and the league and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him running often in this game. One interesting nugget is the Lions played the 4th most man-to-man coverage in the league a year ago meaning there will be defenders with their backs to Murray in a lot of situations.
Mark Ingram II – Over 62.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mark Ingram joined the Ravens as a free agent because he believe it was an offense where he could be featured and utilized heavily. In their week 1 matchup against Miami all signs point to him getting a whole lot of usage. While Lamar Jackson is always going to steal some attempts at the QB position, it’s likely in this game where the Ravens are a touchdown favorite that the coaching staff will want to limit his workload running the ball. The Dolphins defense has some talent in the secondary, but the front seven does not appear to be one of the tougher units in the league. Couple that with the fact that it is going to be near 100 degrees in South Florida and Ingram could wear down that defense early and be in line for a big second half in the game.
Chris Carson – Over 69.5 yards rushing (-115)
One of our favorite plays of opening week was the over for Chris Carson and the only reason we don’t have it listed higher is that apparently everyone in America feels the same way. (As we know that’s rarely a good thing in terms of betting). Carson was a hot name in Fantasy football this week and in the betting world. Because it seems so obvious we’re going to go ahead and either be correct or incorrect with all of the football world. Carson has held off backup Rashad Penny and will look to build upon the work he did particularly in the latter half of the season a year ago. Seattle is thin at wide receiver and they have a favorable home matchup against the Bengals. He should have success running early and if the Seahawks can build the lead they’re expected to have in the second half, you’ll see a lot of Carson and Penny. Here’s to hoping everyone is right!
Eli Manning – Under 239.5 yards passing (-115)
The NFC East battles have proven that they can go in any direction in the past. In this one Eli Manning faces a familiar foe as he travels to Jerry’s World to take on the Cowboys. Let’s cut to the chase on this game. The Giants are undermanned at wide receiver and the Cowboys defense is underrated, and particularly strong at home. Yes, it’s very possible Eli may have to throw a lot in this one, but that doesn’t mean he’ll rack up a lot of yardage. If you’re banking on that, you’re better off to take his attempts over prop. Fun fact: Eli has not thrown for over 200 yards in his last 8 road games as an underdog. Short of Saquon Barkley breaking an 80 yard screen pass, he most likely will extend that streak and struggle to get to the Mendoza 200 yard line. Prove us wrong Eli?
Julian Edelman – Over 7.5 receptions (-115)
Full transparency on the play of Julian Edelman, we pretty much bet him to go over in any matchup so take this pick however you want. The Patriots made a splash on Saturday signing mildly insane Antonio Brown to play opposite of oft-suspended Josh Gordon. The Patriots also boast one of the most complete backfields in the league. So is there any logic to picking Edelman to go over on catches in their game against Pittsburgh? Absolutely. The Sunday night game is a classic matchup and even though Tom Brady and the Pats have owned Pittsburgh and probably will again this one figures to be a battle. Pittsburgh’s defense looks like it will be a really strong group this year building on a nice year in 2018. They’re tough against the run and actually improved at the corner position as well. Their biggest weakness on defense is they are not good at covering slot receivers. They finished 25th in the league a year ago in that category. Add in the fact that Brady goes to Edelman in tough games and situations, and Julian maybe wanting to remind the league that he’s the guy at received in New England and expect him to churn out a lot of receptions.
