PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-4

SEASON RESULTS:
21-25

Week 6 Recap:

Whew, where to start with our week six plays, and our season of NFL player props overall? Probably a puke emoji? This is the weakest start we’ve ever had with player props, and although it’s not too late to improve, we’d be lying if we said we weren’t pretty frustrated. To recap, we had a couple of plays in the early London game, that split. Laviska Shenault got over his yardage total, but James Robinson finished just 1 yard shy as we lost by the hook. If that doesn’t sum up how our prop bets have gone, nothing does. Darrell Henderson was our other win as he had a great game against a defeated New York Giants team. We hedged out of a Kareem Hunt over when it was announced he’d be limited, but we got crushed with Austin Ekeler, who was completely shut down, and Terry McLaurin who also fizzled out despite a favorable matchup. After a fast start from Hunter Henry that included a trip into the end zone, he was a non-factor the rest of the way and fell just shy of his yardage total. Not a ton of regrets with the picks looking back, but not a lot of great breaks either.

Week 7 Preview:

A hopefully lucky 7 of plays this Sunday that once again features all players we’re looking to exceed their metrics. We’re doubled up with a pair of Ravens, who play a critical divisional game against the Cincinnati Bengals. We’re also riding with one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league, a name you might not be thinking of. We’re on the other side with a receiver in that game as well. A couple of big name receivers who have been staples for us over the past few seasons, and a running back who was also our featured DFS Star of the Week. It’s a full slate as we hope to get some momentum going with our props to match our weekly picks and plays.

Our Picks:

Lamar Jackson – Over 238.5 Yards Passing (-115)

The Lamar Jackson is a pretty good running back crowd is getting really quiet as this season has gotten going. Jackson has stepped up his play as a thrower, torching opposing defenses that are geared at stopping the Ravens running attack. LJ has a big game with the Cincinnati Bengals and he’ll need to be at his best to hold serve at home. The Bengals have been pretty solid defensively, especially versus the run. Having been gashed for highlight runs previously, they’ll be looking to lock Jackson and the Baltimore running game up, and forcing them to win through the air. The Ravens are also thin at the running back position, so that could impact the play calling even a bit more. Even though this could be a bit of a low-scoring and smashmouth type of football game, Lamar Jackson should have a decent day throwing the football. He has first round pick Rashod Bateman available, as well as his usual cast of receivers. Last week’s blowout win against the Chargers was the first time this season that he didn’t top 238.5 yards. Things should line up for him to get back over that threshold on Sunday.

Mark Andrews – Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)

Should Lamar Jackson hit his yardage prop listed above, there’s a really good chance that Mark Andrews will nail his catch total. Much like Jackson, Andrews has topped 4.5 catches in all but one game this season. He’s had some nice performances the last few weeks and against the Bengals in his career. With a deeper roster of wide receivers than in years past, teams can’t simply focus on taking Andrews away in the passing game. He should have some favorable matchups, even against the underrated linebackers and safeties of the Cincinnati Bengals. The percentages tell us that Andrews averages nearly 6 catches a game, so we’ll go ahead and plan that he can get to 5 or more in this contest.

Carson Wentz – Over 198.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Don’t look now, as Carson Wentz is one of the hottest quarterbacks of the last three weeks in the NFL. He’s also the league’s top rated passer on throws over 20 yards, so he’s hitting the difficult passes that require both strength and accuracy. Wentz takes aim at the highest rated passing defense when the Colts line up against the 49ers this weekend. Facing a top rated defense might seem like a good opportunity to fade the Colts QB, but he’s simply playing too well right now to have a yardage total under 200 yards. The stats are also slightly skewed for the Niners, with both a bye week, and a few favorable matchups against weak passing games. In a time in the NFL when quarterbacks seem to have 200 yards before blinking, we’re all aboard the Wentz wagon to hit the mark.

Damien Harris – Over 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Patriots running back Damien Harris is quietly becoming one of the more consistent running backs around the league. With the exception of two really tough contests against the Bucs and Saints where he only saw a total of 10 carries, Harris has been a pretty reliable back, averaging around 18 carries per game and over 4 yards per carry, and has topped 100 yards twice this season. The Jets are allowing a respectable 4 yards per carry, but this is a game where Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are going to want to be conservative with Mac Jones. It’s very possible that Harris could get 20+ carries in this football game, and top the 100 yard mark for the third time this season. His total of 64.5 may fit from a statistical standpoint, however the matchup and script should lend itself to the over.

Travis Kelce – Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

The BetCrushers are 0-1 in the 2021 season playing a Travis Kelce over prop, so we’re slightly gun-shy in loading up on him again. We can’t allow one bad performance by the Chiefs All-Pro to wipe out our memories of the cash cow that he was a season ago. Kansas City has a matchup with fireworks expected against a Tennessee defense that is still struggling against the pass. Coming off of one of the best seasons by a tight end ever, Kelce hasn’t been quite as explosive this year, just yet. We use the word yet, because he and this Chiefs offense can get going in a heartbeat. Oh yeah, it’s probably worth mentioning that he’s still playing a really high level, so it’s not like it’s been a huge struggle for him. With a shaky Tennessee passing defense, and the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the Chiefs backfield, Patrick Mahomes could be slinging it around quite a bit. Needing most tight ends to get to 7 catches seems wild, but it’s important to remember that last year, his catch total was often 7.5 or even 8 towards the end of the season. We’ll take another crack with Kelce and if all goes to plan we can even up our mark on betting on the future Hall of Famer.

Davante Adams – Over 94.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

All you need to do to understand why we’re backing Davante Adams here, is to read our breakdown above of Travis Kelce. We’ll state it out simply again. A great player who’s gotten off to a slightly slower start this year, and is poised to break out in a big way. He also has one of the softest matchups of the weekend against the Washington Football Team secondary. Washington is currently ranked dead last in passing defense, and they’ve had communication difficulties all year on the back end. That’s not good when facing Aaron Rodgers and Adams, especially in their backyard. Having topped 100 yards in half of his games this season, this matchup seems way too simple for Adams to not cross that mark once again.

Deebo Samuel- Over 58.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

One of the more pleasantly surprising players of the season has to be 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The young wideout is hitting his stride as the clear number one receiver in San Francisco, and ranks near the top of the league in receiving yards. On Sunday Samuel will have veteran quarterback Jimmy Garroppolo back as his starting quarterback, which should be good news for not only him, but the Niners’ passing game as a whole. The team should also benefit from facing a weakened Colts secondary that is banged up, and ranks near the bottom in both yards per attempt, and completion percentage. Samuel is too good of a player right now to have such a mediocre over/under of receiving yards. Give us the over for the fresh receiver coming off of a bye week.

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