PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-4

SEASON RESULTS:
12-14

Week 3 Recap:

After a horrendous week number two of prop bets, we fell a little further behind on the year with a second consecutive losing weekend. With the exception of one somewhat unlucky play, we just whiffed on our four losses. Stefon Diggs didn’t hit his catch total as he lost by the .5 hook, sitting on 6 catches for most of the 4th quarter with his team up big. We doubled up in the Steelers and Bengals game with the over yards for Tyler Boyd. and what we thought was a sneaky easy over for James Washington, and took the L’s with both. We were hoping to wrap the week off right with an Ezekiel Elliott under yardage total, but Zeke ran hard in a game where the Eagles were playing two deep safeties all evening. Not where we want or expect to be heading into week four of the season, however the season still has plenty of time to prove fruitful.

Week 4 Preview:

We narrowed 13 possible plays down to 9 for our official posting, with a variety of betting options to explore. After our poor week number two, the goal was to really be more selective, but there are just too many enticing options this Sunday. We’ve got a couple players facing each other in a pair of our bets, and two players in the Bills and Texans showdown. If you follow us, you’ll see some familiar faces, and a couple of new ones on our card. With 7 of the 9 wagers being overs, we’re hoping for an action packed weekend filled with a lot of offense.

Our Picks:

Kareem Hunt – Over 18.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

A week ago we opted to pass on an initial read of taking Kareem Hunt’s receiving yardage total, and disappointedly watched him crush it early in the game. We’re not going to risk that same mistake again as we’re locking in Hunt to exceed an even lower total of just 18.5 yards against the Minnesota Vikings. If you caught our picks article, we’re expecting a lot of offense and points in this football game, and that is good news for a back like Hunt. Through three games he’s actually graded out slightly higher than the equally impressive Nick Chubb, and in a game that should feature some passing he should have plenty of opportunities. Add in the fact that Baker Mayfield hasn’t had a ton of confidence in the receiving group that is minus the reliable Jarvis Landry, and Hunt’s value as a receiver increases.

Travis Kelce- Over 92.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

We wouldn’t be exaggerating if we said that Travis Kelce is the most consistent football player in the league. The Chiefs future Hall of Fame tight end is about as automatic as it comes for a 7-100-1 statline on any given week. This week his team heads to Philadelphia with a surprising losing record and looking to bounce-back against and Eagles team that was throttled on Monday Night Football. In that game the Eagles struggled defending the pass as the absence of Brandon Graham and a banged up Fletcher Cox slowed down their pass rush. A suspect secondary, outside of Darius Slay, could struggle with the route running and ability of a tight end like Kelce. Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz really had his way with the Eagles a week ago, and we’re expecting Kelce to do the same. Even with a high total like 92.5 yards, with this matchup, we’re going to assume a 100 yard performance for the top tight end in the league.

Jalen Hurts – Over 50.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

In a season that is basically an audition for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, the young QB took a step backwards with a lackluster performance in primetime against the Cowboys. Hurts didn’t throw the ball effectively well, and was surprisingly bottled up running the ball, something he’s excelled at in his brief career. In the upcoming game with the Chiefs, it’s going to have to be a little bit of a “backyard” football effort for Hurts and the Eagles which should open things up in both the passing and running game. The Chiefs have struggled mightily on defense to begin the season, and were unable to contain Lamar Jackson a couple of weeks ago even though they knew he was running it. The bad showing from Hurts last week bumped down his total a bit from where it had been hovering the first few weeks so there is a little value to be had there as well. Look for a nice rebound performance for Hurts and hopefully a few big runs along the way.

Antonio Brown – Over 44.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Everyone knows the Tom Brady returning to New England storyline, but do you recall the brief two game stint that wide receiver Antonio Brown had as a Patriot? It’s not enough to be called a revenge game, however Brown is lined up to be a really important piece of the Tampa offense in Brady’s return. In a matchup where we know Brady will be focused, AB could end up being WR1 when it’s all said and done. Bill Belichick is going to look to take away Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, which means Brown is going to have opportunities in the passing game. With Stephon Gilmore still not in the lineup, the Pats don’t have the depth at the corner position to matchup with all three of the Bucs’ talented wideouts. Another thing to note is the absence of Rob Gronkowski and Scotty Miller who will both not play on Sunday Night Football. That should mean some extra snaps/looks for Brown. Still having the speed to get downfield, Antonio Brown could take a chunk out of this yardage total on just a catch or two. Brady’s passing total is listed at 303 yards, and if he is to get anywhere near that, Brown will easily exceed his mark of a mere 45 yards.

Daniel Jones – Under 248.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Our lone under of the weekend is going against someone we’ve been down on since he was drafted a few seasons ago. Daniel Jones looked really solid in primetime a couple of weeks ago, remind many of why he does have some believers in his ability to be a franchise quarterback. That strong showing isn’t changing our mind as the BetCrushers see a really tough matchup against the New Orleans Saints on the horizon. The Saints defense has played well this season and are returning to the Superdome ready to attack behind what is sure to be a very loud and fired up crowd. The Giants officially ruled out Jones top target Sterling Shepherd, and the speedy Darius Slayton will also miss the contest. Kenny Golladay is still out there, but he hasn’t synced well yet with Daniel Jones, and will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, who is currently the second highest graded corner in the league through three games. The combination of those factors are putting our estimate on Jones yardage more in the low 200 range as opposed to cracking the mid 200’s. Give us the under here.

Sam Darnold – Over 35.5 Attempts Passing (-115)

Anyone doubting what a disaster the New York Jets franchise has been in recent years needs look no further than Sam Darnold. The former Jets QB has resurrected his career in Carolina, looking poised and confident with his new winning football team. The Panthers face a really tough test against a hot Cowboy offense in one of the more quietly interesting games of the weekend. Through three games, Darnold has averaged almost 36 pass attempts per game as the Panther offense is re-shaping after once again losing star running back Christian McCaffrey. Although head coach Matt Rhule stated the offensive gameplan won’t change much with Chuba Hubbard filling in, there’s an obvious drop off when replacing a player like McCaffrey. This should keep the ball in Darnold’s hands a little more as he looks to keep his connection with D.J. Moore going strong, and re-establishing one with Robby Anderson. On the other side, the Panthers have their biggest challenge in slowing down the re-hot Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense. Assuming the Cowboys can keep up the firepower, Darnold and the Panthers are going to have to match some scoring. That will lead to some additional throwing from a normal matchup. This prop is a simple equation, going over the player’s averages on the season, in a matchup that should lead to more than what those averages are.

Amari Cooper – Over 61.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

It’s been a quiet start to the season for wide receiver Amari Cooper despite the hot start for the Cowboys on offense. Much as we anticipated, CeeDee Lamb has been the top target in the passing game, as quarterback Dak Prescott has spread the ball around to the open receiver. Things could play out differently on Sunday as Cooper goes against what’s been arguably the top defense in the league. The Panthers lost rookie cornerback Jaycee Horn, and although the traded for former Jaguars first-round pick C.J. Henderson it may take a couple of weeks for him to get his footing. Having re-established the running game with Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard, Cooper is flying a little under the radar, as his yardage total here would suggest. Even though it’s not going to be easy against a tough defense, Cooper has been lights out in home games during his tenure as a Cowboy. After receiving just four targets a week ago, look for Dallas to get Cooper involved in the game early, which we hope leads to a productive day on the stat sheet.

Zack Moss – Over 44.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Buffalo Bills are the largest favorites of the weekend as a lopsided game is expected when they host the Houston Texans on Sunday. So far this season Buffalo has been one of the most pass heavy teams in the league, something that should continue against a suspect Texans secondary. The formula with this prop bet is that a fast start for the Bills should lead to a lot of touches for RB1a Zack Moss in the second half of the game. Moss and Devin Singletary split time fairly evenly, but it’s apparent the Bills value Singletary a little more as a starter. Because of this, we’d expect Moss to potentially see more snaps and touches if the game is out of reach in the second stanza. The Texans have been average against the run allowing a respectable 4.2 yards per tote, but as their team has faltered they’ve struggled in second halves. Normally we wouldn’t want anything to do with a 44.5 over total for a platoon running back, but the game script should make this one happen.

Josh Allen – Under 6.5 Attempts Rushing (-115)

The BetCrushers formula for running quarterbacks is a pretty simple concept: Quarterbacks run in big football games, when they need to make critical plays. As we mentioned above, this should not be a game where the Bills are struggling to move the football, or a game that garners a ton of attention outside of these two cities. One would have to believe in a game that Buffalo should handle easily, that things like designed runs won’t be a heavy part of the offensive play calling package. This game is an opportunity for Allen to stand in the pocket, and work on his connections with Stefon Diggs and his receiving corp against a defense that isn’t great at rushing the passer. There’s also a possibility if the game goes the way the Bills hope it will that Allen may not even play in its entirety. Rushing just 4 times in their week two contest against Miami, and 5 times against Washington a week ago, we’ll lean under the 6.5 total posted here.

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