PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-2
SEASON RESULTS:
8-5
Week 2 Recap:
Normally we would completely victory lap a 5-2 week of prop betting, yet week two was frustrating with the record for the weekend. Frustrating because it could have been a clean 7-0 sweep, before things went south for us on the evening games. Let’s start with the good first. We tripled up on the Bills weapons against the Raiders, and James Cook, Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid all cashed. We faded Joshua Kelley against a tough Titans run defense and that cashed, and Robert Woods again cruised past his total. Undefeated heading into Sunday Night Football. Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots running game never got things going so we won’t say we were on the easy right side. However, he missed his prop by just half of a yard, which looked like it may happen with potential overtime, before the game ended without that luxury. On Monday Night Football, we were heavy on Nick Chubb, who was well on his way to crushing his yardage mark before the unfortunate knee injury ended that, and his season. We’ll take the productive slate, knowing our reads have been pretty dialed in as a whole through two weeks.
Week 3 Preview:
No leans for us this week as we’re charging ahead with eight total player props we feel good about after some solid research. We’re fading one quarterback who has been really good, and backing another who has also been good, at least with passing yardage. We’ve got some running backs, receivers and a tight end that we like, and are double-dipping with a QB/WR combo in a game that could provide some fireworks. As the kids say, let’s get this bag…
Our Picks:
Jared Goff – Under 269.5 Yards Passing (-115)
We loved Jared Goff a week ago in DFS and he lit up the stat sheet for us en route to some winnings. We’re going the opposite direction though this weekend despite what appears to be a favorable matchup against the Falcons at home. The Lions offensive line which has done a masterful job protecting Goff is a little banged up, so pass protection could be a bit of an issue in this game, even though the Falcons defense is still growing. And even more detrimental is a toe injury their top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown is nursing, which could limit his availability and effectiveness. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are going to take the approach of run, run, run as per usual, which could make time of possession a factor in how much Goff even gets to throw in this game. Goff has been one of the best and most underrated players over the last year, but with a passing number this high and a few things working against him, we’ll fade the QB this weekend.
Kirk Cousins – Over 291.5 Yards Passing (-115)
The world may finally be coming to grips with the fact Kirk Cousins is actually a good quarterback in the league as is seen in his passing prop continuing to rise. What opened at 281.5 has ballooned to 291.5, and guess what, we’re still on the over in his game against the Chargers. Not only that, we’re looking at his teammates as well in a game with an over/under that currently is set at 54.5 points. If you take out his turnovers, which are irrelevant in a yardage prop bet, he’s been literally the best quarterback in the league throwing the ball. Put that up against a Chargers defense that has been downright bad during their 0-2 start and the numbers all say to back Cousins in this matchup. We like the Vikings QB to get to the 300+ yard mark again, so we’ll go over.
Justin Jefferson – Over 102.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Rookie Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson are likely to have good games against the Chargers defense, and each could be elite performers of the weekend. Make no mistake about it though, the Minnesota offense still runs directly through Justin Jefferson, as the wideout is a master at getting open, and Kirk Cousins continues to get him the ball even when pressured. Anytime you see a prop that is sitting at the century mark or higher, the first instinct should be to hammer the over, not play the number under. In fact, you could sell us on an alt over receiving total for Jefferson this week as it’s not crazy to think he could end up near the 200 yard mark if this game gets into a track meet. We saw what Tyreek Hill did to this defense in week one, as they continue to play man coverage despite their corners not making stops when needed. Jefferson is one of the few players you just “expect” to have 100 yards each week, and everything is lined up for him to do just that against the Chargers.
Bijan Robinson – Over 22.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The Bijan Robinson hype is legitimate as he looks every bit as good as advertised in his first two career games in the NFL. We’ve dipped our toe in the water to start the season, but now we’re jumping all the way in against the Lions Sunday. The Falcons are seemingly going to lean more and more on the rookie as the season progresses, and his matchup looks pretty appealing against a banged up Detroit defense, missing CJGJ, their big thumper in the secondary. You can certainly look to play Robinson’s rushing yards, or his combined yards, and based on what we’ve seen he’s got a great shot at either. We’re going to go with his receiving yardage over, as it sits as just 22.5 yards, an amount he’s surpassed in both games. The Falcons look for ways to involve Robinson and get him into space, so he should get a few targets at minimum. With his elusiveness, he can crack that number with one spin move. Let’s hope the rookie stays hot in week three!
Travis Etienne, Jr. – Over 69.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has started the year a little sluggish, and not just because there were lofty expectations entering the season. Other than a scorching hot first half for Calvin Ridley in their opener nothing has looked easy for an offense adjusting to some new offensive tackles. If there’s a cure for an ailing offense that has been a three and out machine, it’s a date with the Houston Texans, who are having some trouble on the defensive side of the ball. They’re also pretty banged up with four starters not practicing as of Thursday. A week ago we watched Zack Moss run through that beat up defense, which is what Jaguars running back Travis Etienne, Jr. will attempt to do on Sunday. Etienne has not looked great, although it’s likely more a product of bad offensive line play, as his one game-breaking run was mostly all him. The running lanes should be a little wider in this game, and we’re expecting him to have his first “big” performance of the season in this matchup.
Michael Pittman, Jr. – Over 4.5 Yards Receptions (-120)
Unfortunately for the Colts they’ll be without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, which means Gardner Minshew will get the start against the Ravens. That also means good news for the wide receivers of the Colts who will have a veteran taking on a still wounded Baltimore secondary. Michael Pittman, Jr. has had a nice start to the season and on a team that is lacking weapons, is the clear number one option in the passing game for the Colts. The Ravens are pretty hefty favorites in the game so the script could also work in his favor if Baltimore builds up any kind of lead and makes the Colts one dimensional. That could happen regardless if Zack Moss is unable to repeat his solid performance from a week ago. This reception total is 4.5 and 5.5 depending on the book, with juice determining a role as well so if you can shop it around if you can. To be honest even 5.5 at +135 (available at DraftKings) seems like a great play, although we prefer the 4.5 at -120. Pittman should get a lot of targets in this game and it seems like he’ll be good for at least half a dozen catches in this one.
Jake Ferguson – Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys are big favorites in their matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend, which could mean a slightly different path and approach throughout the game. If the Cowboys are able to establish some early dominance, you can expect some of the usual suspects like CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard to take a little bit of a back seat and the team to try to work in some other players. One guy the team believes is near making a statement game is tight end Jake Ferguson. The youngster hasn’t had a ton of production the first two weeks, but he has been targeted, and should only improve as he goes through the season. His reception total sits at 2.5 catches, and he’s averaged exactly that with 2 in week 1 and 3 in week 2, respectively. The Cardinals will be without safety and leader of the defense Budda Baker who is now on injured reserve. With the combination of targets, potential game script, and injuries in the Arizona secondary, Ferguson should be in line for his best game to date. We’re taking a shot with the young tight end and hoping to take this one to the pay window.
A.J. Brown – Over 68.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The NFL viewing audience watched the Philadelphia Eagles A.J. Brown throw a little bit of a typical wide receiver tantrum on the sidelines because he wasn’t getting the football last weekend. We’re not here suggesting this will result in him getting the ball more… Wait, that’s exactly what we’re suggesting in their week three matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only do we expect the Eagles and quarterback Jalen Hurts to make a strong effort to get him the ball more, they may have little choice but to throw him the ball. The Buccaneers will be playing close attention to running back D’Andre Swift, and even with their strong offensive line, it may be a bit of a grind running the football. As a result we should see some throws from Hurts. The Bucs secondary ranks near the bottom in yards per pass attempt allowed so those intermediate routes and shots down field are there for the taking. If there’s ever an opportunity to regain that Hurts to Brown magic, this would feel like a game to do so.
