PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
5-2

SEASON RESULTS:
53-48

Week 13 Recap:

A week that should have netted out 6-1 ended up with a solid 5-2 mark, improving our season results on the march toward increased profitability. In actuality, a perfect weekend was very much in play as our two misses were the result of injury and a benching. Tyrod Taylor had 15 rushing yards in the first half, well on his way to get over 17.5, however his poor play resulted in being sent to the bench, resulting in a loss. The other misfire was on 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell, who also looked like he was on his way to getting over his yardage total. Unfortunately, a 3rd quarter injury knocked him out for two series and limited him in the 4th quarter. Four of the five winning plays were mostly smooth sailing and covered fairly easily as Justin Jefferson, Jamaal Williams, Antonio Gibson and Cooper Kupp all had nice games. The last play was on Monday Night Football in the wind-storm between the Bills and Patriots. It took almost the entire game, but some 4th quarter scrambles, including a 21 yarder helped get quarterback Josh Allen over his rushing yardage total. Upward and onward.

Week 14 Preview:

A few new faces and a few familiar players in a full 10 player prop card for week number 14 in the NFL. Included in the mix are two Kansas City Chiefs, a pair of New Orleans Saints, and a duo for the Cleveland Browns. We’re taking a couple of chances, both with players that haven’t performed great, and coming off of injury. It’s actually a pretty common theme this weekend that we’re playing several players that are getting back into the flow of things, after those injuries. There’s plenty of variety to choose from this week so feel free to tail or fade at your discretion!

Our Picks:

Austin Hooper – Over 32.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

After the initial buzz of Austin Hooper coming over the Cleveland Browns a couple of seasons ago as a free agent, the tight end has largely been missing in action in their offensive gameplan. If there were ever an opportunity for Hooper to show his value from that contract, this game against the Baltimore Ravens would certainly be that. The tight end room for the Browns will be minus David Njoku and Harrison Bryant, leaving Hooper as the only proven player at the position on the roster. Baltimore has been as good as any team in the league at stopping the run, and you know they’ll be focused on stopping Nick Chubb primarily with their scheme. Quarterback Baker Mayfield throws to the tight end position as much as any quarterback in the league, so by default Hooper should get a fair amount of targets. With the Ravens secondary very thin at the corner position, look for the team to both play zone more, and potentially give safety help deep. That should open things up nicely for Hooper in what really should be his top performance of the season.

Trevor Lawrence – Under 216.5 Yards Passing (-115)

There’s not a lot of surprise in hearing reports about the dysfunction within the Urban Meyer regime, resulting in another poor season for the franchise. The person that has most unfortunately been impacted by the chaos has to be first overall pick Trevor Lawrence. The lack of coaching and leadership, mixed with the lack of talent around him and constant losing has clearly not helped in the rookie’s development. Sunday he will face the Tennessee Titans attempting to do something the Jaguars haven’t done in forever, win a road football game. The good news for Lawrence and the Jags is the Titans offense has also been stuck in neutral since the loss of Derrick Henry, and their top two wideouts. Even though Julio Jones will return this weekend, the Jaguars should be able to keep the Titans somewhat in check, meaning they don’t have to necessarily air it out. After a tumultuous week for running back James Robinson, look for the Jags to really lean on him this weekend and attempt to take some pressure off of Lawrence. Behind a poor offensive line and limited weapons to throw to, we’ll keep on the Lawrence fade train here and take his under.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Over 60.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

We all understand that Andy Reid doesn’t really like to run the football all that much. Give the coach credit though, during this stretch of a semi-baffling passing drought for his team, he has given the running game a little bit more of a look. After missing several weeks, starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has returned and worked his way back into the rotation. The Chiefs play the Raiders on Sunday, a team during the passing drought stretch that Patrick Mahomes and company torched a few weeks back. The Raiders have already stated that they plan to follow suit of what the rest of the league has been doing against KC and playing a two deep safety shell. That will invite the Chiefs to hand the ball of plenty, and is something that CEH needs to take advantage of. He should be able to as the Raiders have been getting gashed on the ground in recent weeks. If Kansas City is able to get a big lead as they did in their first matchup, that will also result in some extra touches in the running game. Based on everything stated above, we’re actually expecting Edwards-Helaire to have a good shot at a 100 yard performance.

Travis Kelce – Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)

We’re old enough to remember when Travis Kelce’s catch total was routinely set at O/U 7.5 receptions on a weekly basis, regardless of matchup. Yes, it was actually just last season. Front and center of the Chiefs struggling pass offense has been Kelce, who has averaged just 4 receptions a game over the last six ballgames. The one game that was the exception was against the Las Vegas Raiders, when he eclipsed his catch total in the first half. The Raiders have been arguably the worst team in the league at stopping opposing tight ends, so we’re banking on Kelce replicating his success from the first matchup.

Saquon Barkley – Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (115)

One of the league’s brightest young stars has become a forgotten player as a result of repeated injuries and a largely uncompetitive team. If Saquon Barkley wants to put his name back amongst the top talent in the NFL, this weekend might be his best opportunity. For starters, he claims he feels as healthy as he has, so there shouldn’t be any limitations on what he can or cannot do on the field. That’s a good thing for Barkley and the Giants as they’ll go to battle again with Mike Glennon at quarterback against the Chargers. With Glennon at QB, you have to imagine that the team will want to lean on the running game as much as possible. The other good news with that approach is, the Chargers rank near the bottom in all rushing defensive categories. Add it up and this is the formula to finally see a reminder of what made Barkley so special as a rookie coming into the league. Give us the over and let’s hope we’ve timed this one up correctly.

Jamison Crowder – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)

Since joining the New York Jets, Jamison Crowder was a pretty consistent play as he was a target and catch machine for the team. Some injuries and inconsistent quarterback play slowed things down, but we’re going back to Crowder here in a contest against the Saints. The Jets are limping into this game at receiver as Corey Davis and Elijah Moore will both miss this one due to injury. That leaves Crowder as the only real proven option for rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. New Orleans continues to be one of the better run-stopping units in the league, so by default the Jets are going to have to throw the ball more than they may want to. The Saints should also be more efficient with their offense with the return of Alvin Kamara, which means the Jets will have to keep up. Look for the veteran wideout to surpass his reception mark.

Taysom Hill – Under 26.5 Pass Attempts (-115)

Despite some flashy plays from Taysom Hill in his first start, the do-it all quarterback struggled throwing the football, resulting in multiple interceptions. Things get a little easier against the New York Jets defense, and with the return of Alvin Kamara in the backfield. With Hill’s finger injury, there should be a lot of running both from Hill and Kamara in the gameplan from Sean Payton. You could talk us into taking the yardage under from Hill, but there is the possibility that he could hit some deep passes, or something could get broken in the short passing game. The safer bet seems to be the assumption that Hill won’t be dropping back and throwing a whole lot if the Saints aren’t trailing big. We’re banking on a hefty dose of the running game and the Saints holding the Jets down, resulting in a low amount of pass attempts in the game.

Alvin Kamara – Over 104.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

There is certainly a direct correlation between the New Orleans Saints record this season, and the absences of Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara from the lineup. While Winston is of course lost for the season, Kamara is finally set to make his return against the Jets. With fellow running back Mark Ingram set to miss the game, Kamara should be welcomed back with a pretty hefty workload. The Jets defense has been shredded most of the season, and Kamara will be active in both the running and passing games. His combined rushing and receiving total is actually pretty soft at just 104.5 against this New York defense, without Ingram poaching carries and snaps. We’re going to go on record here and say the only thing that would prevent Kamara from cashing here is if he’s limited at all due to re-injury. It’ll be nice to see Kamara back on the field after the long delay.

Kareem Hunt – Over 15.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The Cleveland Browns are another team welcoming back a key offensive weapon, as they’re happy to have Kareem Hunt back joining Nick Chubb in the backfield. Hunt is back just in time for the Browns as they have a critical game against the Ravens at home on Sunday. The Ravens are stout against the run, which means we may need to see more passing out of Cleveland to win this football game. Hunt is the de-facto third down back and pass catcher on the team, and will get a lot of snaps with their run game likely to be slowed down. It’s also important to remember that the Browns run more one and two wide receiver sets than any team in the league. With tight end David Njoku set to miss this game, Hunt could see some more time in two-back sets. Before his injury, this number is clearly one that Hunt would cruise past, so we’ll take a crack with him here against Baltimore.

Mike Evans – Over 60.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the most potent offenses in the league behind a good running game and diverse passing attack. One of the reasons they throw the ball so well, other than of course having Tom Brady at quarterback, is because they can spread it out to different weapons. Mike Evans is a legitimate WR1 and has multiple Pro Bowls to show for it, as his combination of speed and power are as good as anyone in the league. Despite this, Evans can often go AWOL in the passing game as Brady will always take the easy throw when it’s available. This has resulted in some up and down performances for the talented wideout as he has to share targets with Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and the running backs. Sunday’s monster showdown with the Buffalo Bills is shaping up to be one of those “up” performances for Evans, despite the fact the Bills have been the best team in the league defending the pass. Unfortunately for the Bills, they’ll have their first real test without All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White, the player who would have locked horns with Evans. As a result, Evans is going to get a big dropoff with cornerbacks Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson in coverage. Additionally, the Bills Taron Johnson is one of the top slot corners and should be able to limit Chris Godwin, meaning Evans will get some extra looks. In a game that is expected to be a high-scoring affair, Evans should do enough to get over this yardage total.

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