PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-4

SEASON RESULTS:
40-22-2

Week 8 Recap:

Uninspiring and unfortunate are two words that you don’t want to use when looking back at sports wagers. Realistically, those are two that come to mind as we revisit our prop bets from last weekend in the NFL. It’s accounted for in our loss column, however for review purposes we’re going to toss out the Kenny Golladay prop as he exited the game in the 2nd quarter and did not return with injury, crushing any chance of hitting his over. Beyond that we ended up an even 3-3 as a few bets went as scheduled, and a few did not. The Ravens and Steelers game played out about as we handicapped it and both Lamar Jackson and James Conner fell fairly shy of hitting their totals. Conner actually got off to a fast start in the first quarter, but plateaued from there which helped the ticket cash. In the Bengals game, we stacked a couple of bets and as was the case overall, split them as Tyler Boyd made enough plays to hurdle his prop, while his thrower Joe Burrow, did not. Surprisingly the Bengals were in the driver’s seat for most of the game and the script we assumed that had them playing catch up never really materialized. Burrow played a really nice game, he just didn’t need to throw as much as we expected he would.

Week 9 Preview:

The BetCrushers had two player props ready to go that we absolutely loved for this weekend. Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen were as close to sure things as you can get in the sports gambling world in their player props in their matchup against the rival Raiders. A late illness to Allen makes him a game-time decision which results in us pulling both of those player props off of the board here. Couple that with backing out of a very enticing and very questionable Jordan Howard prop and we truly had to go back to the drawing board. Fortunately we have some other appealing options in a mix of overs and unders. As always, full transparency is key. There are a couple of very big question marks, mainly due to injury questions, that are listed you may want to evaluate yourself. They’ll be true boom or busts that should cover easily, but certainly could end up coming back to bite us if their injuries are still an issue. Ultimately, the value is simply too much for us to pass up so we’re going to sweat these out and hope for some good fortune to pair with the good capping.

Our Picks:

Lamar Jackson – Under 215.5 Yards Passing (-110)

You’re not suffering from deja vu if you feel that while looking at the first prop listed. Our article listed Lamar Jackson’s under yardage total last week against the Steelers and he never really threatened it. We’re doubling-down and fading the somewhat struggling Jackson again when he takes on the Colts in what should be a good and important game in the AFC. Jackson has been missing open reads, throws and looked a little unsure of himself recently. That’s not good against a Colts defense that is finally getting healthy and is one of the best in the league. Jackson doesn’t exactly have the luxury of having an elite group of receivers to toss to either which certainly won’t help in this game. The best part of this prop is that Jackson could play a quality football game and still not hit his yardage total if he ends up scrambling more often than not.

James Conner – Over 74.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Proof that it’s not deja vu despite the fact that we also have James Conner on our play sheet again as well, this time we’re taking the opposite route. Conner had a tough matchup last week against the Ravens and couldn’t crack the 50 yard mark in the game. His total this week is 25 yards higher than that, however is opponent is nowhere near as strong stopping the run as the Ravens. In fact, this week’s counterpart, the Dallas Cowboys, are downright terrible stopping the running game. Throw in the fact that the Steelers are more than 2 touchdown favorites and there should be a lot of running for Pittsburgh as they’ll try to get in and out of town with a quick win. Conner was having a nice little streak of hitting around the century mark before their game with Baltimore and that streak should resume here. Other than of course an injury, the only possible way that Conner seemingly wouldn’t hit this mark is if his backups swallow up the carries in the second half.

Philip Rivers – Under 259.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Normally a Philip Rivers yardage total is around the 275 mark depending on the opponent. You can see the respect the Ravens have, as Sunday’s mark is set 15 yards below that, which might be appealing for a quarterback that likes to sling it around. The BetCrushers are throwing some shade at Rivers in this contest as this sure feels like one of those where number 17 tosses a few to the purple jerseys. If you’ve followed Rivers and the Colts this season you’ve noticed he hasn’t been too productive throwing to the wide receiver position. T.Y. Hilton has been mostly irrelevant and will not be available due to injury. Most of the passing damage has been to the tight ends and running backs. The Ravens great corners will take away the pedestrian receivers for Indy which means the team can focus its attention on the backs and tight ends. Expect a semi low-scoring game here that shouldn’t see a lot of deep shots down the field. Rivers always hits some throws so this could be close, but ultimately, he will fall just a little short.

Nick Foles – Under 274.5 Yards Passing (-110)

The Chicago Bears fell just short against the Saints in week number 8 despite a strong performance from quarterback Nick Foles. “BDN” was accurate and pushed the ball down field looking as impressive as he has since he was inserted during the game against the Falcons when he took over for Mitchell Trubisky. After that effort he’ll find a much more forgiving defense when he travels to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans, a team that has been carved up routinely this year. If there is ever a game for Foles to go off it would be this one. Before you get too excited though, it’s important to note that Foles has not met this yardage total once this season. It’s also worth noting that the Titans publicly have stated Derrick Henry is going to touch the ball a lot in this game. That’s usually the case, but probably even more so as the Bears are more vulnerable against the run as opposed to the pass. If the Titans can put together some lengthy drives it will limit the amount of chances the Bears have to throw the ball. Another point to consider is that Foles favorite target Allen Robinson II isn’t really a deep threat type of receiver. Taking an under with a defense that’s had as much trouble as the Titans have is a little dicey, however taking an over total that hasn’t been hit yet this season seems even crazier.

Julio Jones – Over 87.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

It feels like Julio Jones has been questionable on the injury report in every game over the past three seasons. It’s his running mate Calvin Ridley who is slated to miss their game against the Broncos this weekend, leaving Jones as the primary target for Matt Ryan. Some receivers really struggle when the opposite target isn’t available, but that’s not the case with Jones, who has been used to double teams since his second season in the league. Things balance out a bit too as Denver will be without at least one corner in A.J. Bouye, and probably Bryce Callahan as well. With Ridley unlikely to go, Ryan is going to be looking Jones way a lot as this could be a game where he sees double digit targets. For a receiver that is traditionally near the 100 yard mark for an over/under, this seems like a really nice value play with a really nice player.

Daniel Jones – Under 235.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Daniel Jones made a couple of really bad decisions in their game last week with the Buccaneers as they ultimately fell short of a win. Outside of those decisions, he actually played perhaps his best game of the season. The Giants will take on their rivals in Washington looking to stay alive in the ultra-competitive and ultra-bad NFC East. Jones will have his work cut out for him as Washington has allowed the fewest passing yards in the league halfway through the season. In fact, when the Giants played them just a few weeks earlier he threw for a paltry 111 yards. He’ll also be without the services of wide receiver Golden Tate III who has been ruled out. Washington’s pass rush should harass Jones repeatedly making the throws he does make short through the air. Even if Jones can double the production he had against Washington the first go-around, he’ll still fall short of this prop.

Michael Thomas – Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

One of the biggest games of the weekend is the NFC South battle between the Saints and Buccaneers. New Orleans has been holding down the fort as quarterback Drew Brees has been anxiously awaiting the return of his top two targets at wideout. Michael Thomas is back, and with all that has transpired since his injury he is anxious to re-prove that he’s the best receiver in the game. As mentioned in our preview, it’s risky to play a player coming off of an injury as there is the threat of re-aggravating it, or perhaps being on a “pitch count”. We don’t anticipate Sean Payton or Drew Brees easing Thomas back into things any differently than they would in a normal game. In fact, with this being a critical battle that will have implications on who will win the division, it’s possible that they’ll rely on Thomas and Alvin Kamara even more than usual. Speaking of Kamara, the Bucs are a top-two run defense in the league, and Payton knows this very well. Some quick slants are a better way to move the chains than running into a brick wall. Last season Thomas over/under receptions was set at 8.5 and even 9.5 at the end of the season. With a target set at just 5.5 receptions, we’ll hope he can stay on the field and he should crush this prop.

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