PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
0-0
SEASON RESULTS:
21-19
Week 7 Recap:
The travel schedule had us without a Prop Corner for week seven in the NFL, keeping our yearly mark a couple of games over .500. We need to go on a run to get some profit working on the season. Even without any posted plays, we were able to watch each game of the weekend and look forward to what’s in store for the upcoming week eight.
Week 8 Preview:
We’ve got a lucky (we hope) seven player prop bets for week six that include just one quarterback. We’re focused in on the runners this week and a forgotten about tight end, and hopefully found a decent edge on the players you’re reading about below. We’re up one and down one in the Eagles game, with that one being our lone fade of the weekend. Plenty to consider no matter what your preferences!
Our Picks:
Baker Mayfield – Under 229.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield was in the running for MVP during the first half of the NFL season. The second half of the year is going to be more of an uphill battle for the gunslinger as he’ll begin week eight without his two favorite weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It’s always difficult to adjust in-game, but we got a glimpse of this offense when Evans went down in week seven, as things slowed down a bit for Mayfield and the Buccaneers. With Godwin down for the year, the passing game now funnels through tight end Cade Otton, and guys like Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer. That falloff will likely have the Bucs offense attempting to run the ball even more, and potentially struggling a bit to stay on the field on third downs. Mayfield has also struggled a bit against the falcons, eclipsing this yardage total only once in four career games. That includes throwing for only 180 yards against them in their first meeting this season. We’ll make Mayfield prove he can sling it without his top weapons in his first start without them.
Ja’Marr Chase – Over 78.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase has a pretty juicy matchup in week seven against the Philadelphia Eagles in what is a very important game for both teams. Despite investing in their secondary in the offseason, the Eagles have not yet found the formula to defend the pass in the 2024 season. More specifically, they rank dead last at defending WR1’s through seven weeks. That lines things up nicely for Ja’Marr Chase, who has had his three best games of the season playing at home. Chase has also actually performed a lot better with Tee Higgins back in the lineup, as teams have to respect the opposite side of the field. The Eagles play primarily cover three zone, and Chase has proven to be able to beat either man or zone coverage. If you caught our plays of the week, we are expecting a lot of points and offense in this game. Everything really lines up for Chase to have a big performance against this Philly defense.
Javonte Williams – Over 64.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Broncos running back Javonte Williams is piece one of a double dip for the BetCrushers on Sunday, as we’re completely fading the Carolina Panthers run defense. The Panthers defense, which was not great to begin with, has seen it’s top players lost to injury. As a result, they’re simply just outmanned against any team and opponent. Javonte Williams is coming off his best performance of the season, and is averaging over 5 yards per carry in his last 4 games. With Bryce Young starting for the Panthers, the Broncos defense could keep their offense on the field, a lot. As a result, Williams should get a lot of work if the game script does indeed work in their favor. We’re backing the Broncos RB1, and as you’ll see next, another player as well.
Jaleel McLaughlin – Over 18.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
It’s not only Javonte Williams who has come to life for the Broncos over the past month, as backup Jaleel McLaughlin has also had his best four game stretch. McLaughlin is the speedier of the two running backs, and has the ability to break a 20 yarder every time he gets the ball in his hands. You read the breakdown above on the Panthers, so we don’t need to follow up on that logic. But if the Broncos do in fact handle business, McLaughlin should get some additional work. Look for McLaughlin to potentially have his biggest game of the season, so take advantage of this low total with a player who’s a little under the radar heading into the weekend.
Jordan Mason – Over 76.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
As a technical backup running, Jordan Mason has been putting up starting caliber stats all season long in relief of Christian McCaffrey. Last week might be the exception as Mason put up only 58 yards against the Chiefs defense, except when you dig a little deeper you find that’s the best output against KC all season. Outside of that showing, Mason has been a routine 100 yard rusher, averaging 5.2 yards per rush in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Sunday he’ll face a Cowboys defense that has really had trouble stopping physical running backs. There is also talk that Christian McCaffrey could return in week 9, which means this could potentially be Mason’s last run as a starter. With the receiving unit of the 49ers in a bit of flux with the loss of Brandon Aiyuk, and injury concerns with Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel, expect Shanahan to really lean into the running game. Mason should be able to tally around 20 carries in this game, and with his solid average, getting over the total here should be do-able.
Ray Davis – Over 23.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
In week six the Buffalo Bills were without starting running back James Cook, and backup Ray Davis had his breakout performance against the Jets with 97 yards rushing. He followed it up last week with 41 yards, earning the praise of offensive coordinator Joe Brady and head coach Sean McDermott. The strong recent stretch for Davis has earned him more playing time, which should make eclipsing 23.5 yards rushing a likely outcome against the Seahawks. The defense for Seattle is one of just five teams allowing over 5 yards per carry on the season. The math for this one is simple, if Davis can get five totes, he should be able to beat this yardage total. He should end up with more than five carries if this game stays close, so we’ll definitely take a shot at his over in this one.
Raheem Mostert – Over 35.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Beginning the season with an injury has made Raheem Mostert a forgotten name in the NFL world, much as the Dolphins were a forgotten team in the first half of the season. Since returning to the lineup, it has been Mostert who has been the Dolphins most productive back, not Devon Achane. While it’s true Achane has taken on the lead role, and is probably more dynamic at this point in the season, Mostert is still a very capable player. In his first two games back, he’s rushed for 80 and 50 yards, respectively. He’s been closer to a starting running back, than one who a total reserved for players who are more likely backup players. The Dolphins will welcome back quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which should absolutely lighten up the box with a focus on wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Cardinals have been middle of the pack stopping the run this season, so with a need to avoid the big play, Mostert should have plenty of opportunities and space to get over a very manageable total. This is actually a bet you may want to consider an alternate total on as Mostert has the ability to go substantially over this number.
Tony Pollard – Under 61.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
In what has been a disappointing season thus far for the Tennessee Titans, running back Tony Pollard has been one of the bright spots to build upon. With the exception of an 8 yard performance against the Packers, Pollard has averaged nearly 80 yards per game rushing, ranking him in the top 8 in the league. We’re fading him this weekend though, as he has a difficult matchup against a Lions defense that remains pretty solid against the run. With DeAndre Hopkins shipped off to Kansas City, the Lions can key on Calvin Ridley, and really put their attention on stopping Pollard. It’s not as though Pollard can’t produce some yardage, and he will, but this is a tough spot for him in a game where the Titans could really be playing from behind. The Lions offense is rolling, and have the ability to score early and often. Game script is the main reason we won’t be backing Pollard.
