PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-3
SEASON RESULTS:
25-16
Week 6 Recap:
A meager 2-3 weekend for week number six. We rode the fade Chase Brown wagon and jumped off just in time to see him fall short Sunday, before he ended up taking off in week seven on Thursday Night Football. James Cook rallied after a slow start on Monday Night Football for our other cover despite hardly touching the ball in the fourth quarter of their loss. Our three losses were a mix of a couple of different scenarios. We fell just barely short with both Kyren Williams and Patrick Mahomes overs, and while you could argue both should have covered, game script didn’t help the cause. Our other loss was playing with fire in fading Ravens running back Derrick Henry. The Future Hall of Famer ran hard, and despite the Ravens continued struggles he surpassed his mark on the way to a 100 yard performance.
Week 7 Preview:
We’ve got eight wagers on tap this week, involving seven players, with a double fade on one phenom quarterback. For the first time this season, weather plays a part in our selections, and we also have a couple of injury focused plays. Have a great week seven!
Our Picks:
Davante Adams – Over 79.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
Somehow the NFL is still playing games overseas (Roger Goodell), and this week it’s the Los Angeles Rams playing the Jacksonville Jaguars. This could be the biggest test of the year for the Rams, not just because the Jaguars have played well this season, but more because of the travel, and playing without WR1 in the league, in Puka Nacua. LA has the luxury of having a legitimate guy to step into the WR1 role on the team with Davante Adams, and we expect him to step up in this contest. No quarterback perhaps in history has locked onto one receiver like Matthew Stafford does, as he wisely works his top weapons until they’re exhausted. (See Calvin Johnson, Cooper Kupp and of course Nacua). Sure, some other guys will get opportunities to catch passes, but expect a heavy target share to go to Adams, who still looks energized in this stint with LA. The Jaguars have been solid against the run, but have given up some big plays in the passing game to opponents. Adams receiving total is just 14 yards above where he’s averaged this season, and without Nacua, that should account for substantially more opportunities. Don’t be surprised if Adams is near or over the 100 yard mark in this game.
Jaxson Dart – Under 176.5 Yards Passing / Under 35.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
For clarification, we are betting the 2 wagers above separately as single wagers. You can certainly look to Dart’s “combined yardage”, or do the trendy thing and parlay these two bets, but this are 2 separate wagers for the BetCrushers. This fade on Jaxson Dart is not about suggesting he can’t play in this league, as he clearly has provided a huge spark for the Giants entire season. This is more about respecting the Broncos defense at home, as they continue to ravage opponents. The Broncos are one of the few teams in the league that has been good against the run and the pass. In this matchup, let’s start with the pass. Denver flat out brings it with the pass rush, and we know Patrick Surtain will lock own one receiver on the outside. The Giants are exactly loaded with receiving weapons after the unfortunate injury to Malik Nabers two games ago. Can the tight end group, or plays to the running backs do enough to get Dart over this number? We’re saying they cannot. As far as running goes, Dart has been electric tucking and running. He’ll likely have to try to do that against this Denver pass rush, but the Broncos have been good at containing running quarterbacks. They locked down Justin Fields and some other solid running threats. At the end of the day, this is just a really tough spot for Dart and the Giants offense. Despite them being one of the trendy dogs in week seven, we’re going with the matchup, rather than the “vibes” and taking two unders here.
Jonathan Taylor – Over 91.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Not to pat ourselves on the back with a lot of season left, but we were high on the Jonathan Taylor train heading into this season. Taylor has not let us down at all as he continues to look elusive and powerful every single week. This week Taylor faces a Chargers team on the road in what could end up being a critical matchup in the AFC playoff picture. The Colts offense has been one of the best in the league, powered by Taylor, but Daniel Jones and the receivers have actually helped by not making this team one dimensional. The Chargers defense has struggled, particularly since linebacker Khalil Mack went down with an elbow injury. Mack could make his return this week, but it sounds like he is likely still not ready. Regardless, Indy’s gameplan starts with Taylor, and against a Chargers that is giving up over 5 yards per carry to opponents, Taylor should find room to roam. His consistency has pushed his weekly mark up each weekend, but it’s his consistency that we love in this bet. JT should see 20+ carries in this game, and in what should be a close matchup be relevant for all four quarters. Backing good players is generally a solid strategy, we’ll see if it holds true here.
Devon Achane – Under 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Speaking of backing good players, we’re going the opposite direction with Devon Achane Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. The speed of Achane always makes him a threat, as he can take it the distance from anywhere, but this is a tall task against the Browns defense. For whatever reason, the Browns defense at home is insanely good. (Credit to the Dawg Pound maybe?) Overall, this Cleveland defensive unit is allowing a ridiculously stingy 3 yards per carry to opposing teams. With nasty weather expected, the Dolphins will absolutely give Achane plenty of touches, it’s just hard to envision a scenario where the porous Dolphins offensive line can get enough push against this Browns front seven. Unless Achane pops a long gainer, this could be a really long day on the ground for the Miami star and his offense.
Van Jefferson – Over 21.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
We definitely did not have Van Jefferson on our Prop Corner radar during this NFL season, but a lot of sports betting is about making adjustments in real-time. The adjustment here is that Calvin Ridley will not be playing against the Patriots on Sunday, and well, someone has to catch the ball at some point in the game, right? Jefferson is a veteran who has never really managed to make a big impact in any of his previous stops around the league, but he’s still here, which means he obviously can do a little bit. After being an afterthought for the Titans, Jefferson stepped in when Ridley was out and saw six targets on the way to 75 receiving yards last weekend. We’re not expecting him to necessarily duplicate that production, but by default someone simply has to get a few yards along the way. The Patriots are touchdown favorites, and it wouldn’t be surprising if head coach Mike Vrabel wanted to put a beating on Tennessee if they get ahead early. That should mean a lot of throwing for the Titans and quarterback Cam Ward. It may not result in a lot of success, but at just 21.5 yards, Jefferson seems like he’s worth a flyer here.
Quinshon Judkins – Over 91.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
If you don’t like betting bad or stale numbers, then stay away from this bet. Judkins opened at 83.5 yards rushing, and has been bet all the way up to 91.5 at Draftkings Sportsbook. Logic would tell you to avoid at this point, but we went into this matchup saying as long as his total wasn’t at 100 yards (which it obviously would not be) that we were all in on Judkins this week. Apparently the rest of the world has the same feeling. What could possibly go wrong? The fact of the matter here is simple. Judkins is coming off of a game where he openly criticized himself and said he needs to play better. That fire, matched up with facing a Dolphins defense that has given up the most rushing yards in the league simply has to amount to a 100 yard day for the rookie in our opinion. There are two other factors here that make Judkins appealing. First, the game script should allow the Browns to be competitive for four quarters, meaning it shouldn’t be a second half of needing to air it out for quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Perhaps more importantly, the weather for this game is predicted to be very “Cleveland-like”. Heavy winds, possible rain, and just overall conditions that will make it hard on both teams passing. The Browns gameplan for this game has to be run the ball and play stout run defense. Even though the rest of the world has also figured this out, it’s simply too much to pass up on betting.
Jordan Addison – Over 46.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
It’s easy to get overlooked when you play across from Justin Jefferson, and even easier when you missed the first three games of the season. All that does is make Jordan Addison a sneaky good play with what seems like a very manageable yardage total when the Vikings host the Eagles in week seven. Since his return, Addison is averaging 77 yards per game as he offers WR1 abilities without the pressures of being the focal point of defenses to stop. If you’ve watched the Eagles this season, you are aware this team has had a serious issue at their second cornerback spot. Quinyon Mitchell has done a good job taking away one receiver, it’s been the ancillary receivers in opposing offenses that have done some damage against them. This is a perfect scenario where Justin Jefferson will be getting a ton of attention, meaning veteran QB Carson Wentz (former Eagle) will need to find other options in the passing game. We have Addison more around the range he’s been averaging since returning, in the low to mid 70’s for this ballgame. With a total under 50 yards, this one seems like a no-brainer.
Follow us @TheBetCrushers on “X” Twitter 
