PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-4

SEASON RESULTS:
30-17-1

Week 6 Recap:

A disappointing .500 split of our player props for the weekend putting our seasonal mark at 30-17-1. We had some easy wins, but we also had a big miss by taking the under with Deshaun Watson’s passing yardage. In what turned out to be a huge shootout, a 60 yard bomb to Will Fuller V crushed that prop leading to a 2-3 start in the early games. The biggest reach we put out there was Jonathan Taylor as we went against the analytics for a hunch and we paid the price. Taylor did average 5 yards per carry, but only got 12 totes and fell just a little short of his total. We bounced back with some pretty easy covers late including Jared Goff’s under total that was never really threatened, before losing our Monday night play as DeAndre Hopkins was never really in the gameplan. Hard to know if he may have been had the Cardinals not completely beaten down the Cowboys making the game script all about running the football for Arizona.

Week 7 Preview:

For the first time this season we’re not rolling with 8 player props. We figured once we strayed from that it would be a lesser number, yet here we sit with 9 tickets and plays ready to go in week number seven. Another good mixture of QBs, RBs, WRs, and some overs and unders highlighted by conflicting plays with the Dallas Cowboys. Let us know if we’re missing any great props, if not best of luck to you against your books this weekend!

Our Picks:

Davante Adams – Over 82.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

The Packers welcomed Davante Adams back against the Buccaneers in a game where Aaron Rodgers and the entire team really struggled. We’re looking at that as a fluke that amounts to some good game action practice for Adams as we expect to see one of the league’s best regain his Pro Bowl form this Sunday against a Texans team that has had trouble slowing down opposing offenses all season. Without a true lockdown corner, Adams should rebound along with Rodgers and post a really big stat-line in a game that most are expecting to be extremely high scoring. With some of the Packers other weapons down and questionable, Rodgers will look Adams way quite a bit as this is a game where he should crack the century mark. Don’t let the high number scare you away on this prop.

Cam Newton – Under 215.5 Yards Passing (-110)

At first glance, this number seems to be way too low, as thoughts of Newton tossing for near 400 yards in their nationally televised game against the Seahawks may be dancing in your head. It may surprise you to know that in his other 3 games as a starter Newton has tossed for just 155, 162, and 157 yards. It’s certainly not all on Cam, as his weaponry is suspect at best and their offensive line has been banged up and not playing great. The 49ers have their own injury concerns, but they welcomed back a key piece to their secondary in cornerback Emmanuel Mosley who really helped solidify their back unit. The feel of this game seems to be a slug it out type, with whoever can make the big plays in the fourth quarter coming away with the win. This bet is a little scary at just 215.5 yards, but barring a busted deep play, it seems like there is at least 20 yards or so of value here so we’ll take the under.

Stefon Diggs – Over 6 Receptions (-110)

The Bills have not looked great the past two weeks, however WR Stefon Diggs continues to put up nice numbers as Josh Allen loves looking his direction. As the AFC’s leader in receptions and yards, a catch total of 6 is too low. Generally the top receivers have totals around 7.5, so there is clear margin for error here. Diggs has only failed to grab 6 or more balls once this season and that was had 4 catches matched up against Jalen Ramsey. He faces a completely beaten down Jets team that doesn’t seem to be really playing for head coach Adam Gase. In their first matchup, Diggs caught 8 passes and it would seem he should find similar success this weekend, particularly with his running mate John Brown ruled out with a knee injury. Unless the Jets are completely out of the game in the second half, Diggs should beat this total.

Keenan Allen – Over 6 Receptions (-110)

To save you some time, you can pretty much take what you read about Stefon Diggs and apply the same logic to Keenan Allen in his game versus the Jaguars. The Jags rank 27th against the pass and Allen continues to be a target magnet and catch machine in this offense. Rookie cornerback C.J. Henderson is learning on the job for the Jags and clearly looks like a rookie at this point in time. Gardner Minshew should at least keep the Jaguars somewhat in the game long enough to keep the passing game relevant for Justin Herbert and Allen. Weather won’t be an issue, so taking the over here seems like a pretty safe bet.

Randall Cobb – Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

When an over/under total line is set in the mid to high 50’s, you can expect a lot of passing and a lot of yards. The Packers are fairly solid versus the pass, however they’ve not been great covering slot type receivers. Throw in the fact that Randall Cobb has been averaging 4.5 catches over the last 4 games and this seems to be a good spot to take a shot with him needing just 4 catches to cash. The Packers have a quality pass rush as well so it’s hard to see Texans QB Deshaun Watson having a lot of time to wait for his speedy wideouts to get down the field. Much like a tight end, Cobb should be a nice safety valve on shorter and quicker passes if Watson is getting rid of the ball quickly. Oh yeah, a revenge game is a real thing as well as you know Cobb would like to play well against the team that was happy to let him walk in free agency after 2018.

Derrick Henry – Under 87.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Taking an under with the Titans Derrick Henry is so difficult to do, particularly when he seems to be on a roll as he currently is. The flip side to that argument is that because he is playing so well his player props are inflated. That’s probably not the right adjective to describe it, but this does seem like the right spot for a slight dip in his production when you look at the variables. Most importantly, let’s first take a look at the matchup. The Pittsburgh Steelers have only given up a league low 331 yards rushing on the season, and that’s with 74 coming on one busted play to Miles Sanders. Pittsburgh’s main goal defensively is always to stop the run first. Something else to consider is the Titans will be without their top offensive lineman as Taylor Lewan was lost for the season with an ACL injury. Having all of their weapons back at wide receiver makes throwing the ball a lot more feasible for this Tennessee offense. Unless Henry can find his own busted run, it will be tough for him to get over his yardage total in this game.

Andy Dalton – Under 269.5 Yards Passing (-110)

The Red Rifle era enters game number two with a trip to the rival Washington Football Team as the Cowboys look to get anything going. Andy Dalton did not look good in his first game as a starter a week ago and it’s hard to see him playing a whole lot better in this contest. Washington has been good defensively with their strength up front on the defensive line. In previous years this wouldn’t be an issue as the Cowboys had the top offensive line in the league. Injuries have crushed this group as it’ll be without all four of its Pro Bowl players from two seasons ago. We saw them struggle a week ago against the Cardinals, who don’t have the horses on their defensive line that Washington does. Plan on this game being a low scoring grind it out affair and don’t be fooled with the flashy weapons that Dalton has at his disposal on the outside. We’re as impressed with adding the talented CeeDee Lamb to their WR mix as you are, but having weapons doesn’t mean much if the QB doesn’t have time to get the ball to them. Dalton should play better with an extra week of practice and gameplanning, but this yardage total just seems too high.

Dalton Schultz – Over 27.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Does it seem contradictory that we’d play an over while taking the quarterback’s under yardage total? It kind of is, but there is a method to the madness with the Dalton Schultz over bet. We mentioned that QB Andy Dalton will be under pressure, and generally a tight end is the quarterback’s best friend in these scenarios. Schultz has been the other bright spot along with rookie CeeDee Lamb as he’s filled in well after Blake Jarwin’s season ending injury. Other than one slow game against the Giants, Schultz has averaged over 50 yards receiving in his other starts. While Washington’s defense is pretty solid overall, the biggest deficiency they’ve shown this season is stopping opposing tight ends. All of that, along with a relatively low yardage total means Schultz should be able to get to the pay window.

Russell Wilson – Over 284.5 Yards Passing (-110)

All you really need to say about this final wager is, Russell Wilson and over. The man is literally playing at a different level than the rest of his peers and has a big matchup with his young counterpart Kyler Murray. Wilson isn’t the type to get too caught up in hype like this, but you know he wants to show the youngster he’s still the boss in the NFC West. It’s less about that and more about the fact that D.K. Metcalf is the best young receiver in the league and there is no shortage of playmakers behind him either. Wilson is on a mission this season and this is another game in the process. Anytime we can get him at a price under 300 we’re going to look closely at doing just that.

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