PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-3
SEASON RESULTS:
20-9
Week 4 Recap:
Sometimes you can get spoiled after a really strong week, which is a little bit of what happened to the BetCrushers with Prop Corner as a 4-3 week felt like a failure. Sure, it didn’t net a ton of profit, but it also wasn’t a losing weekend, and that’s always the initial starting goal. A quick recap had us hitting on Matthew Stafford’s over as he continues to throw the ball well, even under immense pressure. In that same game, we got enough from running back Zack Moss to also eclipse his yardage mark. Dalton Kincaid topped his mark as well for the 3rd time in 4 games, and as we expected, Jerome Ford wasn’t able to do much, and never really threatened his under total. Two of our three losses came in the Bengals game, as we went the wrong direction with Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon. We were looking for a big game from Chase, and faded Mixon, and unfortunately Chase fell just short of his total, and Mixon just surpassed his. They were close, but losses nonetheless. Our other loss saw Chargers veteran wideout Keenan Allen falling substantially short of his yardage marker just a week after putting up historical type numbers. All said and done, a 4-3 weekend is fine, and we’ll take it… With eyes set on a much better week number five.
Week 5 Preview:
It’s a potpourri of prop corner wagers in week five as we’ve got a little something for everyone. Sometimes in sports betting it’s good to go against the grain, and you’ll notice there is a little theme of that with a few of our bets in this article. That includes fading the hottest QB in the league, and backing a couple of players who did very little a week ago. All tallied up, we’ve got 8 wagers on our card, with a couple of quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and a tight end. Not the tight end with the music star, but the one who might be overtaking him for top spot at the position in the near future. Good luck to everyone with whatever you’re betting this weekend!
Our Picks:
Josh Allen – Under 264.5 Yards Passing (-115)
We have to be a little crazy to be fading a guy who had a perfect quarterback rating a week ago in a huge divisional win against the Dolphins. And yes, here we are taking the under passing yards for Bills quarterback Josh Allen. It’s not that we don’t respect the ridiculously strong three game stretch he’s put together after his opening Monday Night Football disaster, it’s really just circumstances. For starters, the Bills are having to travel to England off of the huge high of beating Miami. They’ll be taking on a Jaguars team that not only is very familiar with playing in London, but also has a nice advantage of having been there for 10 days to acclimate to the time change. Going beyond the logistical disadvantage, the Jaguars defense can matchup pretty well with the Bills offense. Tyson Campbell should be able to hold his own with Stefon Diggs on the outside, and “the other Josh Allen”, the Jaguars linebacker could feast on Bills right tackle Spencer Brown. When these teams last played in 2021, the Jags held the Bills to 6 points, and battered Allen for the entire sixty minutes. It shouldn’t be quite that bad this time around for the Bills and their star QB, but this also doesn’t have the makings of a performance where Allen is slinging it all over the field. We’ll fade the yardage here in what we expect to be a lower scoring ballgame.
Gus Edwards – Over 45.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Even though the Pittsburgh Steelers have been struggling a bit to begin the 2023 season, their contest versus the rival Ravens should be tough fun one in a long series. These coaches and teams are going to try to command the line of scrimmage, and impose their collective will on the other. With that being said, the Ravens have a bit of an advantage, especially here without Cameron Heyward in the lineup for Pittsburgh. Enter de-facto starting running back Gus Edwards, the non-exciting, yet somehow consistent player for the Ravens. Edwards is one of the least recognizable backs in the league to the average fan, yet when he gets the ball he just seems to get 4 yards a pop. He’ll continue to share time with Justice Hill and others, including his quarterback, but ultimately he should garner the top share of the rushes on Sunday. Since original starter J.K. Dobbins went out, Edwards has topped this weekend’s yardage mark in each of the last three games, and done so against pretty solid rush defenses. When you pair that up with a Steelers defense that has been pushed a round a little bit, he should be able to top this mark once again on Sunday.
DeAndre Hopkins – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)
The DeAndre Hopkins era in Tennessee has gotten off to a bit of a slow start, as the Titans have struggled to protect Ryan Tannehill. Despite not yet finding the end zone, or topping 70 yards in a contest, we’re backing Hopkins in a game where we’re expecting more throwing than running. Hopkins will be playing a secondary that has young corners he can beat in man coverage, and will play a zone defense he can absolutely find short holes in. After getting 13 targets in the opener, he’s averaged 6 the past three games, and the Titans vocally stated they want to try to get him the ball more. He should see double digit targets against Indianapolis, which would mean he’d only need to snag about half to best his reception mark. For whatever it’s worth, it can be noted that Hopkins had some monster performances against the Colts during his time in Houston. Yeah, ok, that’s probably not too relevant to what we’re looking at here, but it can’t hurt, right?
Michael Pittman, Jr. – Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)
Michael Pittman, Jr. has some similarities to his opposing receiver DeAndre Hopkins, so we might as well go all-in and back him in the Colts and Titans game. After starting the season red-hot averaging 11 targets and 8.5 catches in his first three games, Pittman, Jr. was shut down against a feisty LA Rams defense. Being held to just one catch, Pittman, Jr. will undoubtedly be worked back heavily into the game plan against the Titans, and the timing is perfect for him to rebound from his single catch from a week ago. The Titans continue to have issues slowing down opposing receivers, and there is very little reason to believe that will change in this game. Pittman, Jr. doesn’t possess game-breaking speed, but he’s pretty much the ultimate possession receiver in the league right now. This game should most likely remain close as well, which means Pittman will be a viable target for all four quarters. To be truthful, we’re not expecting him to need all four quarters to eclipse 4.5 catches this weekend. Sure would be nice to have an early and easy cover, and that is a real possibility.
Breece Hall – Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Jets and Broncos have had disappointing seasons thus far, and for New York, you can break that down further to running back Breece Hall. He has been frustrated by a lack of touches, and hasn’t been shy about talking about it. That could all change when the Jets face a Denver defense that has been absolutely atrocious through the first quarter of the season. The Jets committee with Dalvin Cook has seen Hall averaging over 6 yards per carry, and Cook less than 3 thus far. At some point, the Jets need to give Hall the majority of the totes, and ride the hotter hand. There’s no question against Denver Hall should be hot running early. It should help that quarterback Zach Wilson is coming off of his best work, and can help keep the defense honest. The Broncos have been bad collectively on defense, but they’ve especially been gashed by speedy backs, which Hall of course is. Additionally, Hall said he feels completely healed from his ACL surgery, and the organization says he’ll have no “pitch count” limitations moving forward. All of that lines things up for what could be a huge day for the running back who could demolish this yardage total.
Joshua Dobbs – Over 21.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Not too many people including the BetCrushers believed we’d be betting on Joshua Dobbs early in the NFL season, and somehow he’s one of our favorite plays of the weekend. Dobbs has played admirably after being thrown into a role that didn’t feel like it was setting him up for success. He’s taken care of the football by not turning it over, and he’s looked fast and athletic with his feet. We’re just going to come out and say it, his rushing total seems way out of whack at a measly 21.5 yards this weekend. The last three games he’s gone for 41, 55 and 48 yards, respectively, so more than doubling this number on average. Sunday he’ll be facing a Cincinnati Bengal defense than has given up quite a bit of yardage to quarterbacks rushing already this season. The Bengals are missing the veteran leadership from their secondary, and it shows with some of their lack of discipline. Dobbs should have some opportunities yet again to tuck and run which makes this a very playable number.
T.J. Hockenson – Over 55.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
We’re giving you a very simple breakdown of why we’re playing T.J. Hockenson’s yardage prop this week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Plain and simple, it’s the law of averages. Hockenson is an elite tight end target, and was basically a non-factor a week ago seeing only 4 targets and grabbing only two passes. He’s way too important in this offense to not see a huge uptick this weekend. The Chiefs on the other hand, have a much improved defense as a whole, but still have struggled slowing down opposing tight ends. There isn’t a whole lot more for us to add in our explanation of this wager, it simply makes sense to us.
Jordan Love – Over 232.5 Yards Passing (-115)
It’s still too early to tell if Jordan Love can carry the torch passed along from Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as the next star quarterback for the Green Bay Packers, but he seems capable up to this point. The question is whether or not he can continue to improve leading this offense? That can often start with taking care of business against teams who aren’t necessarily all that great. Enter the banged up Las Vegas Raiders, and in particular, their defense. It’s probably not even fair to call what they have a defense, as it generally ends up being Maxx Crosby and a bunch of random guys running around. If the Packers can keep Crosby somewhat under control, Love should have time to get the ball out and make some plays this week. Even with what most would consider mediocre weapons, Love has managed to throw for over 245 yards in three of the four games this season. We’re thinking he’ll be able to do that again versus that Raiders defense, and possibly even have one of, if not his best performance of the season. The numbers haven’t lied, and the eyeball test isn’t horrible either. We’ll take a shot with Love, and hope we get some happiness along the way.
