PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-2

SEASON RESULTS:
77-48-2

Week 16 Recap:

An exciting week 16 that saw a few of our props cashing early, and a few dragging late into their respective games. The most important piece for us is they finished at a strong 6-2 mark for the weekend which ups our season total on player props to 77-48-2. Our early winners included A.J. Green catching a deep ball early against the Texans crossing his low yardage threshold, and of course Tom Brady cashing his yardage total in the first half in their beatdown of the Lions. It turned out to be the only half Brady played. We were able to get some 4th quarter cashes from Calvin Ridley, David Montgomery and Deshaun Watson. We took a flyer on Russell Wilson’s rushing total, and although he had some timely and important runs, he wasn’t able to threaten the total as he only tucked the ball twice. Our most frustrating miss was Ben Roethlisberger’s under yardage total that we really liked heading into the game. With just 59 yards with 2 seconds left in the first half we felt really good about this cashing. A last second junk pass before half got him 25 yards. It was the soft defense of the Colts that allowed Ben to suddenly come to life with a lot of cushioned, and in fairness, really accurate and strong throws in the second half. Kudos to Ben for proving us wrong with that one. You know our mantra though, a winning weekend is a winning weekend.

Week 17 Preview:

Even though COVID-19 is throwing some curveballs into the rosters in week 17, we can all celebrate a bit that we’ve made it through an entire regular season. The final regular season week can be a bit skittish to wager as some teams are playing for a lot, while others are barely still participating. Our strategy is to back players that have things to play for, whether that’s a playoff spot, or personal accolades. We have eight player props set, with 6 of the 8 definitely needing/wanting to have big performances. We start with some shade on a few passing unders, then move to the fun stuff with some overs in the rushing and receiving games. Thanks for following our prop corner for the 2020 season, and we’ll look forward to seeing you back in 2021. A belated Happy New Years to all and best of luck with your wagers!

Our Picks:

Aaron Rodgers – Under 295.5 Yards Passing (-110)

You’ll go broke quickly betting against the top players in the game too often, but taking strategic shots is all a part of the handicapping game. You may cringe at the thought of taking an under with Aaron Rodgers as we did at first. Ultimately, this is actually a play that has a very legitimate shot at hitting. Despite playing fantastic football, Rodgers hasn’t hit over this 295 mark in the past five games, and that included some matchups against really bad defenses. The Packers have a tough game against division foe Chicago, and they’ll be facing them without Rodgers blind side protection blanket as All-Pro left tackle David Bahktiari was lost to an ACL injury in practice. The Bears are more vulnerable in the running game so we should see a lot of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in this game. Rodgers will probably threaten this total and likely play well as usual, but we’ll take the under here.

Mitchell Trubisky – Under 252.2 Yards Passing (-110)

No offense has been hotter than the Chicago Bears as the resurgence of David Montgomery and Mitchell Trubisky has guided them to a slew of points over the last month. Trubisky has averaged right around his targeted mark of 252.5 yards during that span so it would appear to be right on target. This actually seems too easy though as the teams he was competing against included the Jaguars, Vikings, Texans and Lions. Arguably the four worst defenses in the league at this point in the season. In what should be a competitive game against the Packers Trubisky should find the sledding a little tougher with J’aire Alexander and the Packers secondary locking things up.

Kyler Murray – Under 242.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Early in the week it was thought the Cardinals may not have QB Kyler Murray available in their must-win game against the Rams. Fortunately for Arizona he’s cleared to go, unlike the Rams who will be without Jared Goff for the contest. Murray is going to have his hands full as he did in their first matchup with Los Angeles where Jalen Ramsey locked up DeAndre Hopkins and held him to 173 yards passing. The Rams defense knows they’re going to have to shoulder the burden for the team if they’re going to win. We’re thinking that a dinged up Murray against Ramsey and the Rams is lining up as a bit of a slugfest. Another quarterback under it is with Kyler Murray.

Derrick Henry – Over 118.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

A quick search over the past three seasons and we can’t find a rushing yardage total that we’ve played that is any higher than Derrick Henry’s 118.5 that’s set for this Sunday. “Expecting” a running back to go for 120+ seems pretty crazy, especially since we missed on Henry and his over total last week against the Packers. We’re taking another swing at Henry this weekend against perhaps the worst defense overall in the league. The Texans flat out do not have the talent, and J.J. Watt actually isn’t sure they have the desire to be good. Even if they’re fired up in a meaningless game to finish out the season, it’s going to be really difficult for them to slow down Henry. In their first meeting this season Henry topped 200 yards, and it’s not impossible for him to hit that mark again. In fact, if he could tally 223 yards he would surpass the prestigious 2,000 yard mark for the season. This total is big for a reason, don’t let it scare you.

Calvin Ridley – Over 87.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

The simplest argument we can make for taking Calvin Ridley this weekend is just to copy/paste what we stated a week ago regarding his ascendance. In the absence of Julio Jones, Ridley has crossed over the century mark in all four games. It could be that the Falcons have been playing from behind a bit, or their inability to run the ball. Whatever it is, Ridley seems like the best bet each week not named Davante Adams or Stefon Diggs right now to blow up. The Buccaneers offense has been rolling so Atlanta should need to throw a bunch on offense. The Bucs defense is without two key linebackers (Shaq Barrett, Devin White) which should allow Ryan a bit more comfort, and Ridley a little more space to operate. And of course, we can pretty much guarantee Atlanta won’t be able to run the ball which leads to a lot of pass attempts. Let’s see if Calvin can get us paid yet again starting 2021.

Justin Jefferson – Over 73.5 Passing Yards (-110)

We went way off the board this week slotting Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins as our “Star of the Week” for daily fantasy football. Rather than completely doubling down on someone like Cousins we’ll split it up a bit and take one of his receivers for an over yardage prop. Justin Jefferson has been perhaps the most impressive rookie receiver in a year when there have been some solid youngsters. Against the porous Detroit Lions secondary that was just completely torched in the air, he’ll look to extend his hot streak. Jefferson actually has a chance to break the rookie receiving record for yards so you know he and the team will want to take a stab at something positive to end up an otherwise disappointing season. If you need one more nudge, don’t forget Dalvin Cook will be missing the game meaning the straight ground and pound style the Vikings usually employ will be slightly altered.

Melvin Gordon – Over 74.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Of all our prop plays this week, and perhaps this season, this one is definitely a little bit of a shot in the dark. (Play at your own risk). The Broncos are playing a basically meaningless game against the Raiders, which right off the bat could be a bit of an issue. We’re going to take that shot though that running back Melvin Gordon is going to have one of those monster games against the Raiders defense. With Phillip Lindsay on IR, it should be the Melvin Gordon show on Sunday and he should find a lot of room to run against the Las Vegas defense. We may regret this one as it’s a little more “feelings” based, but what the heck it’s week 17, let’s roll those dice and see what happens.

Lamar Jackson – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)

Although we play a lot of anytime touchdown scorer bets, we haven’t officially posted one publicly this season. That all changes here in week 17 as we’ve got a +110 play with Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens need to win, and fortunately for them are playing against a not so fantastic Cincinnati Bengals defense. Jackson has absolutely smoked the Bengals in his young career and there is nothing to lead us to believe that trend doesn’t continue in the season finale for Cincy. Jackson’s recent stellar play should result in some points for the Ravens, and Jackson has a very good chance at finding paydirt. With the odds at plus money we’re going to put this one out as a suggested play.

Follow us @TheBetCrushers on Twitter